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Background/Aims: The aims of this study were to determine baseline factors related to the progression of subjective memory impairment (SMI) in elderly subjects and to develop a new modeling scale to predict progression. Methods: Elderly subjects with SMI were recruited from the nationwide Clinical Research Centers for Dementia of South Korea (CREDOS) multicenter cohort and divided into two groups: (1) progressed to mild cognitive impairment or Alzheimer's disease or (2) stable without progression. Baseline clinical characteristics were compared between the groups, and the most relevant predictors of progression were assessed. A new modeling scale combining the predictors was developed. Results: In total, 129 subjects with SMI were analyzed. The follow-up duration was 0.5-4.7 years, and the median time to event was 3.64 years. The progressing group (n = 29) differed from the stable group (n = 100) in terms of baseline age, apolipoprotein E4 (APOE4) status, and some cognitive domains. Older age, a lower Mini-Mental State Examination recall score, APOE4 carrier, and a lower verbal delayed recall score were the most relevant predictors of progression, and a new modeling scale with these 4 predictors provided a better explanation of progression. Conclusion: SMI subjects with a higher risk of progression can be identified using a new modeling scale and might need further evaluations and more frequent follow-up. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]