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Background: frailty has only recently been recognised as important in patients with heart failure (HF), but little has been done to predict the first hospitalisation after diagnosis in unselected primary care populations. Objectives: to predict the first unplanned HF or all-cause admission after diagnosis, comparing the effects of comorbidity and frailty, the latter measured by the recently validated electronic frailty index (eFI). Design: observational study. Setting: primary care in England. Subjects: all adult patients diagnosed with HF in primary care between 2010 and 2013. Methods: we used electronic health records of patients registered with primary care practices sending records to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) in England with linkage to national hospital admissions and death data. Competing-risk time-to-event analyses identified predictors of first unplanned hospitalisation for HF or for any condition after diagnosis. Results: of 6,360 patients, 9% had an emergency hospitalisation for their HF, and 39% had one for any cause within a year of diagnosis; 578 (9.1%) died within a year without having any emergency admission. The main predictors of HF admission were older age, elevated serum creatinine and not being on a beta-blocker. The main predictors of all-cause admission were age, comorbidity, frailty, prior admission, not being on a beta-blocker, low haematocrit and living alone. Frailty effects were largest in patients aged under 85. Conclusions: this study suggests that frailty has predictive power beyond its comorbidity components. HF patients in the community should be assessed for frailty, which should be reflected in future HF guidelines.

ObjectivesPeriprosthetic fractures have considerable clinical implications for patients and financial implications for healthcare systems. This study aims to determine the burden of periprosthetic fractures of the lower and upper limbs in England and identify any factors associated with differences in treatment and outcome.DesignA national, observational study.SettingEngland.ParticipantsAll individuals admitted to hospital with periprosthetic fractures between 1 April 2015 and 31 December 2018.Primary and secondary outcome measuresMortality, length of stay, change in rate of admissions.MethodsWe analysed Hospital Episode Statistics data using the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision code M96.6 (Fracture of bone following insertion of orthopaedic implant, joint prosthesis, or bone plate) to identify periprosthetic fractures recorded between April 2013 and December 2018. We determined the demographics, procedures performed, mortality rates and discharge destinations. Patient characteristics associated with having a procedure during the index admission were estimated using logistic regression. The annual rate of increase in admissions was estimated using Poisson regression.ResultsBetween 1 April 2015 and 31 December 2018, there were 13 565 patients who had 18 888 admissions (89.5% emergency) with M96.6 in the primary diagnosis field. There was a 13% year-on-year increase in admissions for periprosthetic fracture in England during that period. Older people, people living in deprived areas and those with heart failure or neurological disorders were less likely to receive an operation. 14.4% of patients did not return home after hospital discharge. The overall inpatient mortality was 4.3% and total 30-day mortality was 3.3%.ConclusionsThe clinical and operational burden of periprosthetic fractures is considerable and increasing rapidly. We suggest that the management of people with periprosthetic fractures should be undertaken and funded in a similar manner to that successfully employed for people sustaining hip fractures, using national standards and data collection to monitor and improve performance.

Background The ideal thromboprophylaxis regime following lower limb arthroplasty and proximal femur fractures remains controversial. Guidelines disagree on the type of chemical prophylaxis, its dose or duration. This article describes a method of monitoring venous thromboembolism (VTE) rates following Total Hip (THA), Total Knee Arthroplasty (TKA) and surgery for hip fractures (NOF#). Methods Over 3 years, all patients investigated for VTE were analysed using Picture Archiving Communications System (PACS). All positive scans were then cross-referenced using PACS and local registry data to see if they had undergone THA, TKA or NOF# in the preceding 90 days. Mortality data were obtained from the national administrative database, Hospital Episode Statistics. Results Five thousand seven hundred eighty-eight patients underwent investigation for VTE and there were 29 diagnoses of PE and 24 of DVT. There was a 0.77% rate of symptomatic DVT after THA, 0.05% after TKA and 0.55% after NOF #. The rate of confirmed symptomatic PE for THA was 0.46, 0.27% for TKA and 0.96% for NOF #. Mortality at one-year post-THA was 0.6, 0.6% for TKA and 25.9% after NOF#. All patients contacted either remained within the catchment area for the minimum 90 postoperative days or died within the catchment area. Conclusions The 90 day post-operative prevalence of symptomatic VTE of 1.2, 0.3 and 1.5% in THA, TKA and NOF # respectively are similar to other studies using symptomatic and imaging positive VTE as their endpoint. The study uses a method of collecting data which can be utilised in centres where PACS is available.

Rationale: Black adults have worse health outcomes compared with white adults in certain chronic diseases, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Objectives: To determine to what degree disadvantage by individual and neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) may contribute to racial disparities in COPD outcomes. Methods: Individual and neighborhood-scale sociodemographic characteristics were determined in 2,649 current or former adult smokers with and without COPD at recruitment into SPIROMICS (Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study). We assessed whether racial differences in symptom, functional, and imaging outcomes (St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire, COPD Assessment Test score, modified Medical Research Council dyspnea scale, 6-minute-walk test distance, and computed tomography [CT] scan metrics) and severe exacerbation risk were explained by individual or neighborhood SES. Using generalized linear mixed model regression, we compared respiratory outcomes by race, adjusting for confounders and individual-level and neighborhood-level descriptors of SES both separately and sequentially. Measurements and Main Results: After adjusting for COPD risk factors, Black participants had significantly worse respiratory symptoms and quality of life (modified Medical Research Council scale, COPD Assessment Test, and St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire), higher risk of severe exacerbations and higher percentage of emphysema, thicker airways (internal perimeter of 10 mm), and more air trapping on CT metrics compared with white participants. In addition, the association between Black race and respiratory outcomes was attenuated but remained statistically significant after adjusting for individual-level SES, which explained up to 12–35% of racial disparities. Further adjustment showed that neighborhood-level SES explained another 26–54% of the racial disparities in respiratory outcomes. Even after accounting for both individual and neighborhood SES factors, Black individuals continued to have increased severe exacerbation risk and persistently worse CT outcomes (emphysema, air trapping, and airway wall thickness). Conclusions: Disadvantages by individual- and neighborhood-level SES each partly explain disparities in respiratory outcomes between Black individuals and white individuals. Strategies to narrow the gap in SES disadvantages may help to reduce race-related health disparities in COPD; however, further work is needed to identify additional risk factors contributing to persistent disparities.

BackgroundJoint replacement revision is the most widely used long-term outcome measure in elective hip and knee surgery. Return to theatre (RTT) has been proposed as an additional outcome measure, but how it compares with revision in its statistical performance is unknown.MethodsNational hospital administrative data for England were used to compare RTT at 90 days (RTT90) with revision rates within 3 years by surgeon. Standard power calculations were run for different scenarios. Funnel plots were used to count the number of surgeons with unusually high or low rates.ResultsFrom 2006 to 2011, there were 297 650 hip replacements (HRs) among 2952 surgeons and 341 226 knee replacements (KRs) among 2343 surgeons. RTT90 rates were 2.1% for HR and 1.5% for KR; 3-year revision rates were 2.1% for HR and 2.2% for KR. Statistical power to detect surgeons with poor performance on either metric was particularly low for surgeons performing 50 cases per year for the 5 years. The correlation between the risk-adjusted surgeon-level rates for the two outcomes was +0.51 for HR and +0.20 for KR, both pConclusionRTT90 appears to provide useful and complementary information on surgeon performance and should be considered alongside revision rates, but low case loads considerably reduce the power to detect unusual performance on either metric.

Patients undergoing emergency colorectal cancer (CRC) surgery are at higher risk of poor outcome than those managed electively. The aim of this national study is to identify groups at high risk of undergoing unplanned CRC surgery and assess short and long-term outcome in this cohort subsequent morbidity and mortality as well as quantify their long-term survival. The aim of this national study is to identify groups at high risk of undergoing unplanned CRC surgery and assess short and long-term outcome, subsequent morbidity and mortality as well as quantify their long-term survival.The Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database between the years of 1997-2012 was used to identify all patients that had undergone surgery for colorectal cancer. Multivariable logistic regression analysis and cox regression analyses were undertaken to identify patient factors predictive of undergoing emergency and quantify their long-term survival.A total of 286,591 patients underwent resection for CRC between April 1997 and April 2012, of which 24.3% (69,718 patients) were admitted as emergencies and underwent emergency surgery. Independent predictors of undergoing emergency surgery were female gender (OR 1.23, CI: 1.21-1.25, p 0.001), older age (79 years old OR 1.55, CI: 1.50-1.60, p 0.001), social deprivation (most deprived quintile, OR 1.64, CI: 1.50-1.80, p 0.001) and Black African/Caribbean ethnicity (OR 1.36, CI: 1.21-1.66, p 0.001). All cause 30- and 90-day mortality within the emergency group was significantly higher than that for the electively managed patients group (13.3% versus compared with 3.4% at 30-days) as was 90-day (20.0% versus compared with 5.8% at 90-days). Amongst patients eligible for bowel screening there was an approximate 40% significant reduction in the proportion of patients requiring emergency surgery before and after its introduction in 2006 (23.4%-14.9%, p 0.001). This reduction in emergency surgery included both proximal and distal cancer resections.Older, socially deprived and ethnic minority patients with colorectal cancer are more likely to present as emergencies requiring CRC surgery. Public health initiatives, such as bowel cancer screening, appear to have concomitantly reduced emergency and increased elective surgical rates within the eligible cohort. This is likely to have a beneficial impact on population survival. Strategies aimed at preventing emergency presentation by identifying patients at specific risk could improve survival outcome for colorectal cancer surgery in England.

Objective: To investigate adverse event free admissions as a potential, patient-centered indicator aligned directly with the goal of patient safety— freedom from harm. Background: Preventable adverse event rates in healthcare could be further reduced. These are generally measured separately, one adverse event at a time. However, this does not reveal whether different patients are affected or the same patients are experiencing multiple events. Methods: We examined Medicare inpatient hospital administrative datasets for 2009 to 2011, processed using standard criteria. Events were (i) death within 30 days, (ii) unplanned readmissions within 30 days, (iii) long length of stay, (iv) healthcare acquired infections, and (v) established patient safety indicators not present on admission. We defined adverse event free admissions as those without record of any of these events. National rates were calculated by diagnosis group. Risk-adjusted hospital-specific rates of adverse event free admissions were calculated using colorectal procedures as an example. Results: There were 23,991,193 admissions after exclusions. Approximately, 64% went through the acute inpatient Medicare system without record of anything untoward. Multiple events were recorded in 227% admissions; 15% of these experienced more than 2 adverse events. Risk-adjusted hospitalspecific rates of adverse event free admissions for colorectal procedures showed 131 out of 3786 hospitals below the 998% lower control limit of the national upper quartile. Conclusions: Overall, only 60% of admissions were recorded as adverse event free. Multiple adverse events were common. Even if events are under recorded, this measure could provide an easily understandable and useful baseline for clinicians and managers.

Tumour staging at time of presentation is an important factor in determining survival in colorectal cancer. The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between ethnicity and deprivation in late (Stage IV) presentation of colorectal cancer.Data from the Thames Cancer Registry comprising 77,057 colorectal cancer patients between the years 2000 and 2012 were analysed.A total of 17,348 patients were identified with complete data, of which 53.9% were male. Patients from a Black Afro/Caribbean background were diagnosed with CRC at a much younger age than the White British group (median age 67 compared with 72, p0.001). In multiple regression, ethnicity, deprivation and age were positive predictors of presenting with advanced tumour stage at time of diagnosis. Black patients were more likely to present with Stage IV tumours than white patients (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.18-1.59, p0.001). Social deprivation was also a predictor of Stage IV cancer presentation, with the most deprived group (Quintile 5) 1.26 times more likely to be diagnosed with Stage IV cancer compared with the most affluent group (CI 1.13-1.40, p0.001). Sub-group analyses demonstrated that BlackAffluent patients were still at greater risk of Stage IV CRC than their WhiteAffluent counterparts (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.11-1.45, p=0.023). Patients with rectal cancer were less likely to present with Stage IV CRC (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.61-0.71, p0.001).Racial and age related disparities exist in tumour presentation in the United Kingdom. Patients from black and socially deprived backgrounds as well as the elderly are more likely to present with advanced tumours at time of diagnosis.

ObjectivesThis study aimed to examine the prevalence of frailty coding within the Dr Foster Global Comparators (GC) international database. We then aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model, based on frailty syndromes, for key outcomes using the GC data set.DesignA retrospective cohort analysis of data from patients over 75 years of age from the GC international administrative data. A risk prediction model was developed from the initial analysis based on seven frailty syndrome groups and their relationship to outcome metrics. A weighting was then created for each syndrome group and summated to create the Dr Foster Global Frailty Score. Performance of the score for predictive capacity was compared with an established prognostic comorbidity model (Elixhauser) and tested on another administrative database Hospital Episode Statistics (2011-2015), for external validation.Setting34 hospitals from nine countries across Europe, Australia, the UK and USA.ResultsOf 6.7 million patient records in the GC database, 1.4 million (20%) were from patients aged 75 years or more. There was marked variation in coding of frailty syndromes between countries and hospitals. Frailty syndromes were coded in 2% to 24% of patient spells. Falls and fractures was the most common syndrome coded (24%). The Dr Foster Global Frailty Score was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality, 30-day non-elective readmission and long length of hospital stay. The score had significant predictive capacity beyond that of other known predictors of poor outcome in older persons, such as comorbidity and chronological age. The score’s predictive capacity was higher in the elective group compared with non-elective, and may reflect improved performance in lower acuity states.ConclusionsFrailty syndromes can be coded in international secondary care administrative data sets. The Dr Foster Global Frailty Score significantly predicts key outcomes. This methodology may be feasibly utilised for case-mix adjustment for older persons internationally.

Background We aimed to compare the characteristics and types of heart failure (HF) patients termed “high-impact users”, with high long-term readmission rates, in different regions in England. This will allow clinical factors to be identified in areas with potentially poor quality of care. Methods Patients with a primary diagnosis of heart failure (HF) in the period 2008–2009 were identified using nationally representative primary care data linked to national hospital data and followed up for 5 years. Group-based trajectory models and sequence analysis were applied to their readmissions. Results In each of the 8 NHS England regions, multiple discrete groups were identified. All the regions had high-impact users. The group with an initially high readmission rate followed by a rapid decline in the rate ranged from 2.5 to 11.3% across the regions. The group with constantly high readmission rate compared with other groups ranged from 1.9 to 12.1%. Covariates that were commonly found to have an association with high-impact users among most of the regions were chronic respiratory disease, chronic renal disease, stroke, anaemia, mood disorder, and cardiac arrhythmia. Respiratory tract infection, urinary infection, cardiopulmonary signs and symptoms and exacerbation of heart failure were common causes in the sequences of readmissions among high-impact users in all regions. Conclusion There is regional variation in England in readmission and mortality rates and in the proportions of HF patients who are high-impact users.

AimsTo identify predictors of early revision (within 3 years of the index operation) for hip and knee replacement (HR, KR) from both surgeon and population perspectives.Patients and methodsHierarchical logistic regression on national administrative data for England for index procedures between April 2009 and March 2014.ResultsThere were 315,273 index HR procedures and 374,530 index KR procedures for analysis. Three-year revision rates were 2.1% for HR and 2.2% for KR. The highest odds ratios for HR were for 3+ previous emergency admissions, drug abuse, Parkinson's disease, resurfacing and ages under 60; for KR these were patellofemoral or partial joint replacement, 3+ previous emergency admissions, paralysis and ages under 60. Smaller effects were found for other comorbidities such as obesity (HR) and diabetes (KR). From a population perspective, the only population attributable fractions over 5% were for male gender, uncemented total hip replacements and partial knee or patellofemoral replacements.ConclusionsMeeting the rising demand for revision surgery is a challenge for healthcare leaders and policymakers. Our findings suggest optimising patients pre-operatively and improving patient selection for primary arthroplasty may reduce the burden of early revision of arthroplasty. Our study gives useful information on the additional risks of various comorbidities and procedures, which enables a more informed consent process.Clinical relevanceSurgeons should make patients with certain risk factors such as age and procedure type aware of their higher revision risk as part of shared decision-making.

AIM Historically, postoperative deaths have been reported up to 30 days following surgery. There is, however, emerging evidence that deaths attributable to surgery continue to occur much later than this time frame. This aim of this study was to analyse the timing and causes of mortality following colorectal resection. METHOD Data were obtained from the Hospital Episode Statistics database with linkage to mortality data from the Office for National Statistics. Patients who underwent colorectal resection between April 2001 and February 2007 were included. Causes of death were classified into colorectal cancer (CRC), other malignancy, cardiac, respiratory, gastrointestinal, neurological and other. RESULTS During the study period 171 791 patients underwent a colorectal resection. Thirty-day mortality rates for elective procedures were 1.3, 3.5, 7.0 and 12.1% for the ≤ 65, 66-75, 76-85 and > 85 year age groups, respectively, compared with 2.2, 5.4, 9.8 and 16.7% at 90 days. For elective operations, at 30 days, 38.6% of patients who died had CRC recorded as the primary cause of death, whilst 25.4% died of cardiac causes. In the younger population undergoing a resection, deaths due to cardiac causes were significantly higher than the national average for the same age group even beyond 30 days (13.5% at 30 days, 11.1% at 90 days and 5.7% at 1 year). CONCLUSION This study shows that deaths attributable to colorectal surgery occur beyond the conventionally utilized 30-day period. Information presented to patients on the basis of 30-day mortality estimates is likely to underestimate the true risk of surgical intervention.

BackgroundA small proportion of patients referred to as ‘frequent attenders’ account for a large proportion of hospital activity such as ED attendances and admissions. There is a lack of recent, national estimates of the volume of frequent ED attenders. We aimed to estimate the volume and age distribution of frequent ED attenders in English hospitals.MethodWe included all attendances at all major EDs across England in the financial year 2016–2017. Patients who attended three times or more were classified as frequent attenders. We used a logistic regression model to predict the odds of being a frequent attender by age group.Results14 829 519 attendances were made by 10 062 847 patients who attended at least once. 73.5% of ED attenders attended once and accounted for 49.8% of the total ED attendances. 9.5% of ED attenders attended three times or more; they accounted for 27.1% of the ED attendances. While only 1.2% attended six times or more, their contribution was 7.6% of the total attendances. Infants and adults aged over 80 years were significantly more likely to be frequent attenders than adults aged 30–59 years (OR=2.11, 95% CI 2.09 to 2.13, OR=2.22, 95% CI 2.20 to 2.23, respectively). The likelihood of hospital admission rose steeply with the number of attendances a patient had.ConclusionOne in 10 patients attending the ED are frequent attenders and account for over a quarter of attendances. Emergency care systems should consider better ways of reorganising health services to meet the needs of patients who attend EDs frequently.

BACKGROUND: All-cause 30-day readmission after total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is currently used as a measure of hospital performance in the United States and elsewhere. Readmissions from surgical causes may more accurately reflect preventability and costs. However, little is known about whether predictors of each type of readmission differ. METHODS: All primary TKAs recorded in England's National Health Service administrative database from 2006 to 2015 were included. Multilevel logistic regression analysis was used to describe the effects of patient-related factors on 30-day readmission risk using 3 different readmission metrics: all-cause, surgical (defined using International Classification of Disease-10 primary admission diagnoses), and those resulting in return to theater (RTT). RESULTS: In total, 566,323 procedures were recorded. The comorbidity with the highest odds ratio (OR) for all types of readmission was psychoses (RTT OR 2.52, P < .001). Obesity was a strong independent predictor of RTT (OR 1.36, P < .001) and had the highest population attributable fraction of any comorbidity (4.7%). Unicompartmental arthroplasty was associated with a significantly lower risk of all types of readmission when compared with TKA, with the effect being most pronounced for surgical readmission (OR 0.66, P < .001). RTT in the index episode increased the risk of RTT readmission (OR 2.80, P < .001), as did any emergency admission to hospital in the preceding 12 months (for >2 emergency admissions, all-cause OR 2.38, P < .001). Length of stay either more than or less than 2 days was associated with an increased risk of all-cause and surgical readmission but not RTT readmission. CONCLUSION: Patient-related predictors of surgical and RTT readmission following TKA differ from those for all-cause readmission, but only the latter metric is in widespread use.

ObjectiveClinical guidelines on heart failure (HF) suggest timings for investigation and referral in primary care. We calculated the time for patients to achieve key elements in the recommended pathway to diagnosis of HF.MethodsIn this observational study, we used linked primary and secondary care data (Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a database of anonymised electronic records from UK general practices) between 2010 and 2013. Records were examined for presenting symptoms (breathlessness, fatigue, ankle swelling) and key elements of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence-recommended pathway to diagnosis (serum natriuretic peptide (NP) test, echocardiography, specialist referral).Results42 403 patients were diagnosed with HF, of whom 16 597 presented in primary care with suggestive symptoms. 6464 (39%) had recorded NP or echocardiography, and 6043 (36%) specialist referral. Median time from recorded symptom(s) to investigation (NP or echocardiography) was 292 days (IQR 34–844) and to referral 236 days (IQR 42–721). Median time from symptom(s) to diagnosis was 972 days (IQR 337–1468) and to treatment with HF-relevant medication 803 days (IQR 230–1364). Factors significantly affecting timing of referral, treatment and diagnosis included patients’ sex (p=0.001), age (pConclusionsMedian times to investigation or referral of patients presenting in primary care with symptoms suggestive of HF considerably exceeded recommendations. There is a need to support clinicians in the diagnosis of HF in primary care, with improved access to investigation and specialist assessment to support timely management.

Aims We aimed to identify subgroups in the patient population with different trajectories of long-term readmission rates. The study also aimed to assess common causes and their sequences of readmissions for each subgroup. Methods and results Patients with a primary diagnosis of heart failure (HF) in the period 2008-09 were identified using nationally representative primary care data linked to national hospital data, which contain information on 10.5 million patients. Heart failure patients were followed up for 5 years. Group-based trajectory models and sequence analysis were applied. The model categorised the HF population (n = 9466) into five subgroups: low-impact (66.9%); two intermediate ones (27.4%); chronic high-impact (2.3%) with steady high annual readmission rates; and short-term high-impact (3.4%) with rapid decline in readmission rates. The groups were defined by their trends of yearly number of readmissions. The all-cause 5-year mortality was highest in the short-term high-impact group (n = 185, 72.8%), followed by Group 2 (intermediate users) (n = 744, 58.8%), low-impact (n = 4244, 56.9%), chronic high-impact (n = 88, 37.6%), and Group 1 (intermediate users) (n = 401, 30.3%) (P

Heart failure (HF) is a common, serious chronic condition with high morbidity, hospitalisation and mortality. The healthcare systems of England and the northern Italian region of Lombardy share important similarities and have comprehensive hospital administrative databases linked to the death register. We used them to compare admission for HF and mortality for patients between 2006 and 2012 (n = 37,185 for Lombardy, 234,719 for England) with multistate models. Despite close similarities in age, sex and common comorbidities of the two sets of patients, in Lombardy, HF admissions were longer and more frequent per patient than in England, but short- and medium-term mortality was much lower. English patients had more very short stays, but their very elderly also had longer stays than their Lombardy counterparts. Using a three-state model, the predicted total time spent in hospital showed large differences between the countries: women in England spent an average of 24 days if aged 65 at first admission and 19 days if aged 85; in Lombardy these figures were 68 and 27 days respectively. Eight-state models suggested disease progression that appeared similar in each country. Differences by region within England were modest, with London patients spending more time in hospital and having lower mortality than the rest of England. Whilst clinical practice differences plausibly explain these patterns, we cannot confidently disentangle the impact of alternatives such as coding, casemix, and the availability and use of non-hospital settings. We need to better understand the links between rehospitalisation frequency and mortality.

BACKGROUND: The UK government is pursuing policies to improve primary care access, as many patients visit accident and emergency (A and E) departments after being unable to get suitable general practice appointments. Direct admission to hospital via a general practitioner (GP) averts A and E use, and may reduce total hospital costs. It could also enhance the continuity of information between GPs and hospital doctors, possibly improving healthcare outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether primary care access is associated with the route of emergency admission-via a GP versus via an A and E department. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of national administrative data from English hospitals for 2011-2012. Adults admitted in an emergency (unscheduled) for ≥1 night via a GP or an A and E department formed the study population. The measure of primary care access-the percentage of patients able to get a general practice appointment on their last attempt-was derived from a large, nationally representative patient survey. Multilevel logistic regression was used to estimate associations, adjusting for patient and admission characteristics. RESULTS: The analysis included 2 322 112 emergency admissions (81.9% via an A and E department). With a 5 unit increase in the percentage of patients able to get a general practice appointment on their last attempt, the adjusted odds of GP admission (vs A and E admission) was estimated to increase by 15% (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.17). The probability of GP admission if ≥95% of appointment attempts were successful in each general practice was estimated to be 19.6%. This probability reduced to 13.6% when

ObjectiveTo evaluate mortality differences between weekend and weekday emergency stroke admissions in England over time, and in particular, whether a reconfiguration of stroke services in Greater London was associated with a change in this mortality difference.Design, setting and participantsRisk-adjusted difference-in-difference time trend analysis using hospital administrative data. All emergency patients with stroke admitted to English hospitals from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2014 were included.Main outcomesMortality difference between weekend and weekday emergency stroke admissions.ResultsWe identified 507 169 emergency stroke admissions: 26% of these occurred during the weekend. The 7-day in-hospital mortality difference between weekend and weekday admissions declined across England throughout the study period. In Greater London, where the reorganisation of stroke services took place, an adjusted 28% (relative risk (RR)=1.28, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.47) higher weekend/weekday 7-day mortality ratio in 2008 declined to a non-significant 9% higher risk (RR=1.09, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.32) in 2014. For the rest of England, a 15% (RR=1.15, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.22) higher weekend/weekday 7-day mortality ratio in 2008 declined to a non-significant 3% higher risk (RR=1.03, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.10) in 2014. During the same period, in Greater London an adjusted 12% (RR=1.12, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.26) weekend/weekday 30-day mortality ratio in 2008 slightly increased to 14% (RR=1.14, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.30); however, it was not significant. In the rest of England, an 11% (RR=1.11, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.15) higher weekend/weekday 30-day mortality ratio declined to a non-significant 4% higher risk (RR=1.04, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.09) in 2014. We found no statistically significant association between decreases in the weekend/weekday admissions difference in mortality and the centralisation of stroke services in Greater London.ConclusionsThere was a steady reduction in weekend/weekday differences in mortality in stroke admissions across England. It appears statistically unrelated to the centralisation of stroke services in Greater London, and is consistent with an overall national focus on improving stroke services.

Importance: Thirty-day readmission to hospital after total hip arthroplasty (THA) has significant direct costs and is used as a marker of hospital performance. All-cause readmission is the only metric in current use, and risk factors for surgical readmission and those resulting in return to theater (RTT) are poorly understood. Objective: To determine whether patient-related predictors of all-cause, surgical, and RTT readmission after THA differ and which predictors are most significant. Design, Setting, and Participants: Analysis of all primary THAs recorded in the National Health Service (NHS) Hospital Episode Statistics database from 2006 to 2015. The effect of patient-related factors on 30-day readmission risk was evaluated by multilevel logistic regression analysis. The analysis comprised all acute NHS hospitals in England and all patients receiving primary THA. Main Outcomes and Measures: Thirty-day readmission rate for all-cause, surgical (defined using International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision primary admission diagnoses), and readmissions resulting in RTT. Results: Across all hospitals, 514 455 procedures were recorded. Seventy-nine percent of patients were older than 60 years, 40.3% were men, and 59.7% were women. There were 30 489 all-cause readmissions (5.9%), 16 499 surgical readmissions (3.2%), and 4286 RTT readmissions (0.8%); 54.1% of readmissions were for surgical causes. Comorbidities with the highest odds ratios (ORs) of RTT included those likely to affect patient behavior: drug abuse (OR, 2.22; 95% CI, 1.34-3.67; P = .002), psychoses (OR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.16-2.87; P = .009), dementia (OR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.11-2.22; P = .01), and depression (OR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.31-1.76; P 2 emergency readmissions, OR, 2.33; 95% CI, 2.11-2.57; P

Objective To apply group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM) to the hospital administrative data to evaluate, model and visualise trends and changes in the frequency of long-term hospital care use of the subgroups of patients with cerebrovascular conditions. Design A retrospective cohort study of patients with cerebrovascular conditions. Settings Secondary care of all patients with cerebrovascular conditions admitted to English National Hospital Service hospitals. Participants All patients with cerebrovascular conditions identified through national administrative data (Hospital Episode Statistics) and subsequent emergency hospital admissions followed up for 4 years. Main outcome measure Annual number of emergency hospital readmissions. Results GBTM model classified patients with intracranial haemorrhage (n=2605) into five subgroups, whereas ischaemic stroke (n=34 208) and transient ischaemic attack (TIA) (n=20 549) patients were shown to have two conventional groups, low and high impact. The covariates with significant association with high-impact users (17.1%) among ischaemic stroke were epilepsy (OR 2.29), previous stroke (OR 2.18), anxiety/depression (OR 1.63), procedural complication (OR 1.43), admission to intensive therapy unit (ITU) or high dependency unit (HDU) (OR 1.42), comorbidity score (OR 1.36), urinary tract infections (OR 1.32), vision loss (OR 1.32), chest infections (OR 1.25), living alone (OR 1.25), diabetes (OR 1.23), socioeconomic index (OR 1.20), older age (OR 1.03) and prolonged length of stay (OR 1.00). The covariates associated with high-impact users among TIA (20.0%) were thromboembolic event (OR 3.67), previous stroke (OR 2.51), epilepsy (OR 2.25), hypotension (OR 1.86), anxiety/depression (OR 1.63), amnesia (OR 1.62), diabetes (OR 1.58), anaemia (OR 1.55), comorbidity score (OR 1.39), atrial fibrillation (OR 1.27), living alone (OR 1.25), socioeconomic index (OR 1.13), older age (OR 1.04) and prolonged length of stay (OR 1.02). The high-impact users (0.5%) among intracranial haemorrhage were strongly associated with thromboembolic event (OR 20.3) and inversely related to older age (OR 0.58). Conclusion GBTM effectively assessed trends in the use of hospital care by the subgroups of patients with cerebrovascular conditions. High-impact users persistently had higher annual readmission during the follow-up period.

IntroductionReadmissions are a recognised challenge for providers of healthcare and incur financial penalties in a growing number of countries. However, the scale of unscheduled hospital contacts including attendances at emergency departments that do not result in admission is not well known. In addition, little is known about the route to readmission for patients recently discharged from an emergency hospital stay.MethodsThis is an observational study of national hospital administration data for England. In this retrospective cohort study, we tracked patients for 30 days after discharge from an emergency admission for heart failure (HF) or chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD).ResultsThe majority of patients (COPD:79%; HF:75%) had no unscheduled contact with secondary health care within 30 days of discharge. Of those who did have unscheduled contact, the most common first unscheduled contact was emergency department (ED) attendance (COPD:16%; HF:18%). A further 5% of COPD patients and 4% of HF patients were admitted for an emergency inpatient stay, but not through the ED. A small percentage of patients (COPD:ConclusionWhile the majority of patients did not have unscheduled contact with secondary care in the 30 days after index discharge, many patients attended the ED, often multiple times, and many were admitted to hospital, not always via the ED. More frail patients were more likely to be admitted through the ED, suggesting a possible area of focus as discharge bundles are developed.

IMPORTANCE: Gastroesophageal cancer resections are associated with significant reintervention and perioperative mortality rates. OBJECTIVE: To compare outcomes following operative and nonoperative reinterventions between high- and low-mortality gastroesophageal cancer surgical units in England. DESIGN: All elective esophageal and gastric resections for cancer between 2000 and 2010 in English public hospitals were identified from a national administrative database. Units were divided into low- and high-mortality units (LMUs and HMUs, respectively) using a threshold of 5% or less for 30-day adjusted mortality. The groups were compared for reoperations and nonoperative reinterventions following complications. SETTING: Both LMUs and HMUs. PARTICIPANTS: Patients who underwent esophageal and gastric resections for cancer. EXPOSURE: Elective esophageal and gastric resections for cancer, with reoperations and nonoperative reinterventions following complications. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Failure to rescue is defined as the death of a patient following a complication; failure to rescue-surgical is defined as the death of a patient following reoperation for a surgical complication. RESULTS: There were 14 955 esophagectomies and 10 671 gastrectomies performed in 141 units. For gastroesophageal resections combined, adjusted mortality rates were 3.0% and 8.3% (P < .001) for LMUs and HMUs, respectively. Complications rates preceding reoperation were similar (5.4% for LMUs vs. 4.9% for HMUs; P = .11). The failure to rescue-surgical rates were lower in LMUs than in HMUs (15.3% vs. 24.1%; P < .001). The LMUs performed more nonoperative reinterventions than the HMUs did (6.7% vs. 4.7%; P < .001), with more patients surviving in LMUs than in HMUs (failure to rescue rate, 7.0% vs. 12.5%; P < .001). Overall, LMUs reintervened more than HMUs did (12.2% vs 9.6%; P < .001), and LMUs had lower failure to rescue rates following reintervention than HMUs did (9.0% vs. 18.3%; P = .001). All P values stated refer to 2-sided values. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Overall, LMUs were more likely to reintervene and rescue patients following gastroesophageal cancer resections in England. Patients were more likely to survive following both reoperations and nonsurgical interventions in LMUs.

BACKGROUND: To identify patient and general practice (GP) characteristics associated with emergency (unplanned) first admissions for cancer in secondary care. METHODS: Patients who had a first-time admission with a primary diagnosis of cancer during 2007/08 to 2009/10 were identified from administrative hospital data. We modelled the associations between the odds of these admissions being unplanned and various patient and GP practice characteristics using national data sets, including the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF). RESULTS: There were 639,064 patients with a first-time admission for cancer, with 139,351 unplanned, from 7957 GP practices. The unplanned proportion ranged from 13.9% (patients aged 15-44 years) to 44.9% (patients aged 85 years and older, P

Summary Background Little is known about the acquisition of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) and whether it represents hospital- or community-acquired infection. Aim To test the feasibility and value of using national hospital admissions data from Hospital Episode Statistics to examine trends in CDI in England. Methods Hospital Episode Statistics from the period 1997/98 to 2009/10 were used. Time trends were analysed using two different denominators of hospital activity: total admissions and total bed-days. We explored the impact of sociodemographic factors, comorbidity and healthcare pathways on the risk of CDI. Findings CDI rates per admission and per bed-days increased from 1997/98 to 2006/07, then decreased significantly by >50% from 2008/9 and 2009/10. This pattern was similar for patients regardless of probable source of infection but the proportion of probable community-acquired CDI cases rose steadily from 7% in 1997/98 to 13% in 2009/10. CDI rates were higher among older patients (odds ratio: >65 years, 10.9), those with more comorbid conditions (odds ratio for Charlson index: >5, 5.6), and among patients admitted as an emergency compared with elective admissions, but no relationship was found with deprivation score. Conclusion Our findings support not only the falling trend in CDI found in the national mandatory surveillance scheme from the Health Protection Agency, but a growing proportion of CDI presenting on admission with no evidence of prior hospital exposure in the previous 90 days. We suggest that these may be community-acquired CDI cases.

The aim of the study was to evaluate the impact of transfer status and distance on in-hospital mortality for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients undergoing angioplasty on the same or next day of hospital admission.Retrospective analysis of English hospital administrative data using logistic regression modelling.After risk adjustment for the patient baseline characteristics, transferred patients had a higher in-hospital mortality rate than those admitted directly to hospital for angioplasty performed on the same or next day: OR=1.25 (95% confidence interval: 1.02-1.52), P=0.029. There was no statistically significant increased risk of in-hospital mortality with increasing distance between home and angioplasty centre (OR=0.98 (0.84-1.16), P=0.842 for 6-15 km and 1.03 (0.87-1.22), P=0.768 for15 km when compared with6 km) or with increasing inter-hospital transfer distance for angioplasty (OR=0.84 (0.55-1.29), P=0.435 for 16-34 km and 0.88 (0.58-1.35), for34 km when compared with16 km).Transfer status is associated with in-hospital mortality rate for AMI patients undergoing angioplasty on the same or next day of hospital admission. No relation between in-hospital mortality and the distance from home to angioplasty centre or inter-hospital transfer distance for angioplasty was found in these patients.

Background The aim of the study was to identify outcome differences amongst patients undergoing resection of colorectal cancer at English National Health Service trusts using Hospital Episode Statistics (HES). A comparison was undertaken of trusts that submitted and those that did not submit, or submitted only poorly, voluntarily to a colorectal clinical registry, the National Bowel Cancer Audit Programme (NBOCAP). Methods The NBOCAP data set was used to classify trusts according to submitter status. HES data were used for outcome analysis. Data for major resections of colorectal cancer performed between 1 August 2007 and 31 July 2008 were obtained from HES. Trusts not submitting data to NBOCAP and those submitting less than 10 per cent of their total workload were termed ‘non-submitters’. HES data for 30-day mortality, length of stay and readmission rates were compared according to submitter and non-submitter status in multifactorial analyses. Results A total of 17 722 patients were identified from HES for inclusion. Unadjusted 30-day in-hospital mortality rates were higher in non-submitting than in submitting trusts (5·2 versus 4·0 per cent; P = 0·005). Submitter status was independently associated with reduced 30-day mortality (odds ratio 0·76, 95 per cent confidence interval 0·61 to 0·96; P = 0·021) in regression analysis. Conclusion A higher postoperative mortality rate following resection of colorectal cancer was found in trusts that do not voluntarily report data to NBOCAP. Implications regarding the voluntary nature of submission to such registries should be reviewed if they are to be used for outcome benchmarking.

Background All-cause 30-day hospital readmission is in widespread use for monitoring and incentivizing hospital performance for patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). However, little is known on the extent to which all-cause readmission is influenced by hospital or surgeon performance and whether alternative measures may be more valid. Methods This is an observational study using multilevel modeling on English administrative data to determine the interhospital and intersurgeon variation for 3 readmission metrics: all-cause, surgical, and return-to-theater. Power calculations estimated the likelihood of identifying whether the readmission rate for a surgeon or hospital differed from the national average by a factor of 1.25, 1.5, 2, or 3 times, for both average and high-volume providers. Results 259,980 THAs and 311,033 TKAs were analyzed. Variations by both surgeons and hospitals were smaller for the all-cause measure than for the surgical or return-to-theater metrics, although statistical power to detect differences was higher. Statistical power to detect surgeon-level rates of 1.25 or 1.5 times the average was consistently low. However, at the hospital level, the surgical readmission measure showed more variation by hospital while maintaining excellent power to detect differences in rates between hospitals performing the average number of THA or TKA cases per year in England. In practice, more outliers than expected from purely random variation were found for all-cause and surgical readmissions, especially at hospital level. Conclusion The 30-day surgical readmission rate should be considered as an adjunctive measure to 30-day all-cause readmission rate when assessing hospital performance.

Nonelective colorectal surgery is associated with substantial patient morbidity and mortality. This study sought to describe the practice of emergency colorectal surgery in the United Kingdom during an 11-year period using the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database.All nonelective admissions in patients undergoing 1 of 8 colorectal resectional procedures between 1996 and 2007 were included. Time trends, univariate, and multivariate mortality and length of stay outcomes were analyzed.A total of 102,236 major urgent/emergency procedures were performed in English National Health Service Trusts between April 1996 and March 2007. Thirty-day in-hospital postoperative mortality rates in patients with colorectal cancer and diverticular disease were 13.3% and 15.4%, respectively. The corresponding 1-year postoperative mortality was 34.7% and 22.6%. On multivariate analysis, benign diagnosis, advanced age, high comorbidity score, social deprivation, and specific procedure types were independent predictors of early and 1-year postoperative mortality (p0.001). Independent risk factors for extended hospital stay were advanced age, social deprivation, distal (compared with proximal) bowel resection, and a diagnosis of ulcerative colitis (p0.001).HES data suggest that in everyday practice, postoperative mortality among patients undergoing nonelective admission followed by colorectal resection is high. Additional investigation is required to assess the reliability of HES data for monitoring institutional variation in this context.

Summary Background Diverticular disease has a changing disease pattern with limited epidemiological data. Aim To describe diverticular disease admission rates and associated outcomes through national population study. Methods Data were obtained from the English ‘Hospital Episode Statistics’ database between 1996 and 2006. Primary outcomes examined were 30-day overall and 1-year mortality, 28-day readmission rates and extended length of stay (LOS) beyond the 75th percentile (median inpatient LOS = 6 days). Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to determine independent predictors of these outcomes. Results Between the study dates 560 281 admissions with a primary diagnosis of diverticular disease were recorded in England. The national admission rate increased from 0.56 to 1.20 per 1000 population/year. 232 047 (41.4%) were inpatient admissions and, of these, 55 519 (23.9%) were elective and 176 528 (76.1%) emergency. Surgery was undertaken in 37 767 (16.3%). The 30-day mortality was 5.1% (n = 6735) and 1-year mortality was 14.5% (n = 11 567). The 28-day readmission rate was 9.6% (n = 21 160). Increasing age, comorbidity and emergency admission were independent predictors of all primary outcomes. Conclusions Diverticular disease admissions increased over the course of the study. Patients of increasing age, admitted as emergency and significant comorbidity should be identified, allowing management modification to optimize outcomes.

This study was designed to compare outcomes after elective laparoscopic and conventional colorectal surgery over a ten-year period using data from the English National Health Service Hospital Episode Statistics database.All elective colonic and rectal resections carried out in English Trusts between 1996 and 2006 were included. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to compare 30 and 365-day mortality rates, 28-day readmission rates, and length of stay between laparoscopic and open surgery.Between the study dates 3,709 of 192,620 (1.9%) elective colonic and rectal resections were classified as laparoscopically assisted procedures. The 30-day and 365-day mortality rates were lower after laparoscopic resection than after open surgery (P0.05). After correction for age, gender, diagnosis, operation type, comorbidity, and social deprivation, laparoscopic surgery was a strong determinant of reduced 30-day (odds ratio, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.74; P0.001) and one-year (odds ratio, 0.53; 95% confidence interval, 0.42-0.67; P0.001) mortality. Similarly, multivariate analysis confirmed that laparoscopic surgery was independently associated with reduced hospital stay (P0.001). Patients who received rectal procedures for malignancy, however, were more likely to be readmitted if laparoscopy rather than by a traditional method was used (11.9% vs. 9.1%, P = 0.003).In the present study, patients selected for laparoscopic colorectal surgery were associated with reduced postoperative mortality when compared with those undergoing the conventional technique. This finding merits further investigation.

A new pay-for-performance scheme for primary care physicians was introduced in England in 2004 as part of an initiative to link the quality of primary care with physician pay.To investigate the association between the quality of primary care and rates of hospital admissions for coronary heart disease.Ecological cross-sectional study using data from the Quality and Outcomes Framework for family practice, hospital admissions, and census data.All 303 primary care trusts in England, covering approximately 50 million people.Rates of elective and unplanned hospital admissions for coronary heart disease and rates of coronary angioplasty and coronary artery bypass grafting were regressed against quality-of-care measures from the Quality and Outcomes Framework, area socioeconomic scores, and disease prevalence.Correlations between prevalence, area socioeconomic scores, and admission rates were generally weak. The strongest relations were seen between area socioeconomic scores and elective and unplanned hospital admissions and revascularization procedures among the age group 45-74 years. Among those aged 75 years and over, the only positive association observed was between area socioeconomic scores and unplanned hospital admissions.The lack of an association between quality scores and admission rates suggests that improving the quality of primary care may not reduce demands on the hospital sector and that other factors are much better predictors of hospitalization for coronary heart disease.

Background No formal definition for the “complex elderly” exists; moreover, these older patients with high levels of multi-morbidity are not readily identified as such at point of hospitalisation, thus missing a valuable opportunity to manage the older patient appropriately within the hospital setting. Objectives To empirically identify the complex elderly patient based on degree of multi-morbidity. Design Retrospective observational study using administrative data. Setting English hospitals during the financial year 2012–13. Subjects All admitted patients aged 65 years and over. Methods By using exploratory analysis (correspondence analysis) we identify multi-morbidity groups based on 20 target conditions whose hospital prevalence was ≥ 1%. Results We examined a total of 2788900 hospital admissions. Multi-morbidity was highly prevalent, 62.8% had 2 or more of the targeted conditions while 4.7% had six or more. Multi-morbidity increased with age from 56% (65-69yr age-groups) up to 67% (80-84yr age-group). The average multi-morbidity was 3.2±1.2 (SD). Correspondence analysis revealed 3 distinct groups of older patients. Group 1 (multi-morbidity ≤2), associated with cancer and/or metastasis; Group 2 (multi-morbidity of 3, 4 or 5), associated with chronic pulmonary disease, lung disease, rheumatism and osteoporosis; finally Group 3 with the highest level of multi-morbidity (≥6) and associated with heart failure, cerebrovascular accident, diabetes, hypertension and myocardial infarction. Conclusions By using widely available hospital administrative data, we propose patients in Groups 2 and 3 to be identified as the complex elderly. Identification of multi-morbidity patterns can help to predict the needs of the older patient and improve resource provision.

The aim of the study was to assess whether there is a proficiency curve-like relationship between surgeon volume and operative mortality and determine the minimum surgeon volume for optimum operative mortality.The inverse relationship between hospital volume and operative mortality is well-established for esophageal, gastric, and pancreatic cancer. The recommended minimum surgeon volumes are however uncertain.We retrieved data on esophagectomies, gastrectomies, and pancreatectomies for cancer from the NHS Hospital Episodes Statistics database from April 2000 to March 2010. We defined mortality as in-hospital death within 30 days of surgery. We determined whether there was a proficiency curve relationship by inspecting surgeon volume-mortality graphs after adjusting for patient age, sex, socioeconomic, and comorbidity indices. We then statistically determined the minimum surgeon volume that produced a mortality rate insignificantly different from the optimum of the curve.Sixteen thousand five hundred seventy-two esophagectomies, 12,622 gastrectomies, and 9116 pancreatectomies were examined. Surgeon volume ranged from 2 to 29 esophagectomies, from 1 to 14 gastrectomies, and from 2 to 31 pancreatectomies per surgeon per year. We demonstrated a proficiency relationship between surgeon volume and mortality in esophageal, gastric, and pancreatic cancer surgery. Each additional case of esophagectomy, gastrectomy, and pancreatectomy would reduce 30-day mortality odds by 3.4%, 7.2%, and 4.1%, respectively. However, as surgeon volume increased, mortality rate continued to improve. Therefore, we were unable to recommend minimum surgeon volume.Mortality after resections for esophageal, gastric, and pancreatic cancer falls as surgeon volume rises up to 30 cases. Within this range, we did not demonstrate any statistical threshold that could be recommended as a minimum volume target.

Objectives To explore the relations between cause-specific readmission rates and National Heart Failure Audit process of care measures in patients admitted for heart failure (HF). Methods Using admissions data for all acute hospitals in England for April 2009–March 2012, we defined an index admission as the first emergency admission with a primary diagnosis of HF for at least three years. We compared risk-adjusted readmission rates for HF and for all non-HF diagnoses combined, risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality rates and performance on six Audit process measures. Results 14.7% of 123 644 patients died during the index admission. Of 105 441 index live discharges, 6853 (6.5%) were readmitted as emergencies within 7 days and 20 144 (19.1%) within 30 days. Index admission mortality rates correlated positively but weakly with non-HF readmission rates but not at all with HF rates. There was modest positive correlation at 7 days between HF and non-HF readmission rates (r=+0.24) but no significant relation at 30 or 365 days. All six process measures (prescribing of ACE inhibitors and beta-blockers, echocardiogram, cardiology inpatient and follow-up by cardiologist and HF liaison) correlated modestly but significantly with lower HF readmission rates at 7 days (r at most −0.26), only three did at 30 days and only cardiology follow-up did for non-HF at either 7 or 30 days; all associations were diminished at 365 days. Conclusions Hospitals scoring higher on evidence-based HF process measures had lower readmission rates, though the association seems limited to HF readmissions and is modest in strength and duration.

Aims To compare the predictors of unplanned readmission by primary diagnosis and time since discharge in heart failure (HF) patients. Methods and results We used national hospital administrative data for England to analyse unplanned readmission by primary diagnosis (HF and non-HF) at 7, 30, 90, 182, and 365 days after the index discharge. A total of 84 212 adult patients had their first HF admission between April 2008 and March 2010; 14 104 (16.8%) died during the index admission and were excluded. Of the remaining 70 108, half were readmitted and 28.7% died during 1 year from discharge (overall mortality rate of 40.6%). Patients had an average of three co-morbidities. Hierarchical logistic regression showed that arrhythmias [odds ratio (OR) = 1.13] and valvular disease (OR = 1.12) had significantly higher odds only for HF readmission; dementia (OR = 1.29), stroke (OR = 1.29), and mental health conditions (OR = 1.25) had higher odds only for non-HF. Ischaemic heart disease, renal disease, and chronic lung disease predicted both. Same-day discharge occurred for 6% of patients and was strongly associated with higher readmission for HF at 7 days, less so thereafter, and not for non-HF after 7 days. Other relationships changed little between 7 and 365 days. Prior outpatient non-attendance was associated with 5–10% higher odds of any readmission per appointment missed. Conclusion In HF patients, some predictors of readmission for HF, especially some common co-morbidities, differ from those for non-HF. In contrast, the time since discharge made little difference to the results.

The use of hierarchical logistic regression for provider profiling has been recommended due to the clustering of patients within hospitals, but has some associated difficulties. We assess changes in hospital outlier status based on standard logistic versus hierarchical logistic modelling of mortality. The study population consisted of all patients admitted to acute, non-specialist hospitals in England between 2007 and 2011 with a primary diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction, acute cerebrovascular disease or fracture of neck of femur or a primary procedure of coronary artery bypass graft or repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm. We compared standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) from non-hierarchical models with SMRs from hierarchical models, without and with shrinkage estimates of the predicted probabilities (Model 1 and Model 2). The SMRs from standard logistic and hierarchical models were highly statistically significantly correlated (r?>?0.91, p?=?0.01). More outliers were recorded in the standard logistic regression than hierarchical modelling only when using shrinkage estimates (Model 2): 21 hospitals (out of a cumulative number of 565 pairs of hospitals under study) changed from a low outlier and 8 hospitals changed from a high outlier based on the logistic regression to a not-an-outlier based on shrinkage estimates. Both standard logistic and hierarchical modelling have identified nearly the same hospitals as mortality outliers. The choice of methodological approach should, however, also consider whether the modelling aim is judgment or improvement, as shrinkage may be more appropriate for the former than the latter.

Objectives To undertake a national outcomes analysis following major head and neck cancer surgery in order to identify risk factors for complications and in-hospital mortality, as well as areas whose closer examination and formal benchmarking in the context of local and national quality assurance audits may lead to improved results for this condition. Design An analysis using Hospital Episode Statistics data. Settings All units undertaking major head and neck cancer surgery in England. Main outcome measures Cancer sites, co-morbidities, social deprivation, surgical and non-surgical treatments, complications, and in-hospital mortality were recorded. Regression analysis was used for casemix adjustment and for identifying independent predictors of complications and mortality. Funnel plots were used for data visualisation. Results We identified 10 589 major head and neck cancer operations performed in England between 2006 and 2011. There were 7312 males, and mean age at surgery was 63 ± 13 years. Oral cavity (42%) and the larynx (28%) were the commonest cancer sites. At least one complication occurred in 33.1% of patients, and there were 322 (3.05%) in-hospital deaths. Variables associated with in-hospital mortality were trust volume, age, co-morbidities, performing emergency major surgery and performing a tracheostomy or reconstructive surgery. Occurrence of major medical complications including pulmonary infections (7%), major acute cardiovascular events (4.7%) and acute renal failure (0.6%) also increased mortality risk. The analysis identified units that were outside of crude and risk-adjusted 99.8% limits of confidence for complications and mortality. Conclusion Mortality following head and neck cancer surgery shows significant national variation and is associated with fixed risk factors like age and co-morbidities, but also with modifiable risk factors like performing major surgery during an emergency admission, tracheostomy, reconstructive surgery and medical complications. We propose that the quality of tracheostomy care, reconstructive surgery, emergency major surgery rate, and occurrence and treatment of major medical complications should be closely examined and formally benchmarked as part of loco-regional and national quality improvement audits.

BACKGROUND: Patients diagnosed with cancer by the emergency route often have more advanced diseases and poorer outcomes. Rates of cancer diagnosed through unplanned admissions vary within and between countries, suggesting potential inconsistencies in the quality of care. To reduce diagnoses by this route and improve patient outcomes, high risk patient groups must be identified. This cross-sectional observational study determined the incidence of first-ever diagnoses of cancer by emergency (unplanned) admission and identified patient-level risk factors for these diagnoses in England. METHODS: Data for 74,763 randomly selected patients at 457 general practices between 1999 and 2008 were obtained from the General Practice Research Database (GPRD), including integrated Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data and Office for National Statistics (ONS) mortality data. The proportion of first-ever diagnoses by emergency admission out of all recorded first cancer diagnoses by any route was analysed by patient characteristics. RESULTS: Diagnosis by emergency admission was recorded in 13.9% of patients diagnosed with cancer for the first time (n = 817/5870). The incidence of first cases by the emergency route was 2.51 patients per 10,000 person years. In adjusted regression analyses, patients of older age (p < 0.0001), living in the most deprived areas (RR 1.93, 95% CI 1.51 to 2.47; p < 0.0001) or who had a total Charlson score of 1 compared to 0 (RR 1.34, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.69; p = 0.014) were most at risk of diagnosis by emergency admission. Patients with more prior (all-cause) emergency admissions were less at risk of subsequent diagnosis by the emergency route (RR 0.31 per prior emergency admission, 95% CI 0.20 to 0.46; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: A much lower incidence of first-ever cancer diagnoses by emergency admission was found compared with previous studies. Identified high risk groups may benefit from interventions to reduce delayed diagnosis. Further studies should include screening and cancer staging data to improve understanding of delayed or untimely diagnosis and patient care pathways.

Background More accurate and recent estimates of adverse events in primary care are necessary to assign resources for improvement of patient safety, while predictors must be identified to ameliorate patient risk. Aim To determine the incidence of recorded iatrogenic harm in general practice and identify risk factors for these adverse events. Design and setting Cross-sectional sample of 74 763 patients at 457 English general practices between 1 January 1999 and 31 December 2008, obtained from the General Practice Research Database. Method Patient age at study entry, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, practice region, duration registered at practice, continuity of care, comorbidities, and health service use were extracted from the data. Adverse events were defined by Read Codes for complications of care (Chapters S, T, and U). Crude and adjusted analyses were performed by Poisson regression, using generalised estimating equations. Results The incidence was 6.0 adverse events per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.74 to 6.27), equivalent to eight adverse events per 10 000 consultations ( n = 2 540 877). After adjustment, patients aged 65–84 years (risk ratio [RR] = 5.62, 95% CI = 4.58 to 6.91; P

Background The study aimed to explore the impact of surgeon and institution volume on outcome following colorectal surgery in England using multilevel hierarchical analysis. Methods An observational study design was used. All patients undergoing primary elective colorectal resection between 2000 and 2008 were included from the Hospital Episode Statistics database. Consultant surgeons and hospitals were divided into tertiles (low, medium and high volume) according to their mean annual colorectal cancer resection caseload. Outcome measures examined were postoperative 30-day mortality, 28-day readmission and reoperation, and length of stay. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis adjusted for age, sex, co-morbidity, social deprivation, year of surgery, operation type and surgical approach. Results A total of 109 261 elective cancer colorectal resections were included. High-volume consultant surgeons and hospitals were defined as performing more than 20·7 and 103·5 elective colorectal cancer procedures per year respectively. Consultant and hospital operative volumes increased throughout the study period. In hierarchical regression models, greater surgeon and institutional volume independently predicted only shorter length of hospital stay. No statistical association was observed between higher provider volume and postoperative mortality, 28-day reoperation or readmission rates. Conclusion Increasing elective colorectal cancer caseload alone may have marginal postoperative benefit.

Background There is increasing evidence of variable standards of care for patients undergoing emergency general surgery in the National Health Service (NHS). The aim of this study was to quantify and explore variability in mortality amongst high-risk emergency general surgery admissions to English NHS hospital Trusts. Methods The Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database was used to identify high-risk emergency general surgery diagnoses (greater than 5 per cent national 30-day mortality rate). Adults admitted to English NHS Trusts with these diagnoses between 2000 and 2009 were included in the study. Thirty-day in-hospital mortality was adjusted for patient and hospital factors. Trusts were grouped into high- and low-mortality outliers, and resource availability was compared between high- and low-mortality outlier institutions. Results Some 367 796 patients admitted to 145 hospital Trusts were included in the study; the 30-day mortality rate was 15·6 per cent (institutional range 9·2–18·2 per cent). Fourteen and 24 hospital Trusts were identified as high- and low-mortality outlier institutions respectively. Intensive care and high-dependency bed resources, as well as greater institutional use of computed tomography (CT), were independent predictors of reduced mortality (P < 0·001). Low-mortality outlying Trusts had significantly more intensive care beds per 1000 hospital beds (20·8 versus 14·0; P = 0·017) and made significantly greater use of CT (24·6 versus 17·2 scans per bed per year; P < 0·001) and ultrasonography (42·5 versus 30·2 scans per bed per year; P < 0·001). Conclusion There is significant variability in mortality risk between hospital Trusts treating high-risk emergency general surgery patients. Equitable access to essential hospital resources may reduce variability in outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate overall performance of English colorectal cancer surgical units identified as outliers for a single quality measure--30 day inhospital mortality. DESIGN: 144,542 patients that underwent primary major colorectal cancer resection between 2000/2001 and 2007/2008 in 149 English National Health Service units were included from hospital episodes statistics. Casemix adjusted funnel plots were constructed for 30 day inhospital mortality, length of stay, unplanned readmission within 28 days, reoperation, failure to rescue-surgical (FTR-S) and abdominoperineal excision (APE) rates. Institutional performance was evaluated across all other domains for institutions deemed outliers for 30 day mortality. Outliers were those that lay on or breached 3 SD control limits. 'Acceptable' performance was defined if units appeared under the upper 2 SD limit. RESULTS: 5 high mortality outlier (HMO) units and 15 low mortality outlier (LMO) units were identified. Of the five HMO units, two were substandard performance outliers (ie, above 3 SD) on another metric (both on high reoperation rates). A further two HMO institutions exceeded the second but not the third SD limits for substandard performance on other outcome metrics. One of the 15 LMO units exceeded 3 SD for substandard performance (APE rate). One LMO institution exceeded the second but not the third SD control limits for high reoperation rates. Institutional mortality correlated with FTR-S and reoperations (R=0.445, p

Gastrectomy remains the mainstay of curative treatment for gastric cancer, yet it is associated with significant postoperative mortality. The laparoscopic approach has been introduced in an attempt to improve surgical outcomes. This study examines the uptake of laparoscopic gastrectomy in England and quantifies postoperative mortality and morbidity following gastrectomy for cancer. A population-based study of a national administrative database was undertaken. Patients undergoing gastrectomy for cancer in any National Health Services hospital in England between April 2000 and March 2010 were included. The main outcome measures were mortality, morbidity and length of stay. A total of 10,713 patients underwent gastrectomy, of which 10,233 (95.5 %) underwent open gastrectomy (OG), and 480 (4.5 %) underwent laparoscopic gastrectomy (LG). There was no significant difference in 30-day in-hospital mortality between OG and LG (5.6 % vs. 4.8 %; p = 0.461). Medical complications occurred in 2,311 (22.6 %) and 120 (25 %) patients from OG and LG groups respectively (p = 0.217). Patients in the LG groups had a shorter hospital stay than OG with median (interquartile range) of 11 (8–17) versus 14 (11–19) days respectively (p

Background This study aimed to describe national intermediate-term admission rates for incisional hernia or clinically apparent adhesions following colorectal surgery, and to compare rates following laparoscopic and open approaches. Methods Patients undergoing primary colorectal resection between 2002 and 2008 were included from the Hospital Episode Statistics database. Subsequent inpatient admissions were extracted for up to 3 years after the initial operation or to the end of the study period. Outcomes examined were admissions with a diagnosis of, or operative interventions for, incisional hernia or adhesions. Results A total of 187 148 patients were included between 2002 and 2008, with median follow-up of 31·8 (interquartile range 13·1–35·3) months. Some 8885 (4·7 per cent) of these patients were admitted with a diagnosis of, or underwent a repair of, an incisional hernia. In multiple regression analysis, use of laparoscopy was not a predictor of operative intervention for incisional hernia (odds ratio 1·09, 95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) 0·99 to 1·21; P = 0·083). Some 15 125 (8·1 per cent) of the patients were admitted with a diagnosis of adhesions or had a procedure for division of adhesions. Overall, 3·5 per cent (6637 of 187 148) of patients underwent adhesiolysis. Patients selected for a laparoscopic procedure had lower rates of admission for adhesions (6·3 per cent (692 of 11 013) for laparoscopic versus 8·2 per cent (14 433 of 176 135) for open surgery; P < 0·001) and reintervention for adhesions (2·8 per cent (305 of 11 013) versus 3·6 per cent (6325 of 176 135) respectively; P < 0·001) than those undergoing an open procedure. In multiple regression analysis, patients selected for a laparoscopic procedure had lower subsequent intervention rates for adhesions (odds ratio 0·80, 95 per cent c.i. 0·71 to 0·90; P < 0·001). Discussion Patients undergoing colorectal resection who are selected for the laparoscopic approach have a lower risk of developing clinically significant adhesions.

Colorectal resection in elderly patients is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, especially in an emergency setting.This study aims to quantify the risks associated with nonelective colorectal resection up to 1 year after surgery in elderly patients.This is a population-based observational study.Data were obtained from the Hospital Episode Statistics database.All patients aged 70 years and older who underwent a nonelective colorectal resection in an English National Health Service Trust hospital between April 2001 and March 2008 were included.: The primary outcomes measured were 30-day in hospital mortality, 365-day mortality, unplanned readmission within 28 days of discharge, and duration of hospital stay.During the study period, 36,767 nonelective colorectal resections were performed in patients aged ≥ 70 years in England. Patients were classified into 3 age groups: A (70-75 years), B (76-80 years), and C (80 years). Thirty-day mortality was 17.0%, 23.3%, and 31.0% in groups A, B, and C (p0.001). The overall 30-day medical complication rate was 33.7%, and the reoperation rate was 6.3%. Cardiac and respiratory complications were significantly higher in group C (22.2% and 18.2%, p0.001). Mortality in Group C was 51.2% at 1-year postsurgery. Advanced age was an independent determinant of mortality in risk-adjusted regression analyses.This is a retrospective analysis of a prospective database. Stage of disease at presentation, severity of complications, and cause of death cannot be ascertained from this database.In this population-based study, half of all English patients aged over 80 years undergoing nonelective colorectal resection died within 1 year of surgery. Further research is required to identify perioperative and postdischarge strategies that may improve survival in this vulnerable cohort.

Background Administrative data have been used to construct risk-adjustment models for provider profiling to benchmark hospital performance for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), but much less for acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We assess the impact on risk model performance and hospital-level mortality rate ratios (SMRs) of three key issues: comorbidity measurement methods, inter-hospital transfers and post-discharge deaths. Methods Logistic regression models for 30-day total mortality used three years of national public hospital emergency (unplanned) admissions data for England for ACS (n=329,369) linked to death registrations. We compared using the Charlson comorbidity index with modelling previous admissions. Results Prior admission for various conditions such as cancer and renal failure was associated with higher post-ACS mortality, whereas previous AMIs, PCI and unstable angina admissions were associated with lower mortality. The Charlson comorbidity index performed better than one- and five-year admission histories. Discrimination (c=0.81) was comparable with that from clinical databases. Adjusted 30-day total mortality rates ranged between hospitals from 6.3% to 13.3%. Median differences in SMRs between the comorbidity-adjustment methods were small. Although SMRs and outlier status could change, a hospital's ‘qualitative' mortality rating (low, average or high) was not affected. In contrast, a sizeable minority of SMRs changed by ≥10 points if transfers were excluded or post-discharge deaths ignored. Model choice occasionally affected funnel plot outlier status. Conclusions Models for comparing hospitals' ACS mortality can be constructed with good discrimination using English administrative hospital data. Adjusting for transfers in and capturing post-discharge deaths are more important than the choice of comorbidity adjustment.

To describe national reoperation rates after elective and emergency colorectal resection and to assess the feasibility of using reoperation as a quality indicator derived from routinely collected data in England.Retrospective observational study of Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data.HES dataset, an administrative dataset covering the entire English National Health Service.All patients undergoing a primary colorectal resection in England between 2000 and 2008.Reoperation after colorectal resection, defined as any reoperation for an intra-abdominal procedure or wound complication within 28 days of surgery on the index or subsequent admission to hospital.The national reoperation rate was 6.5% (15,986/246,469). A large degree of variation was identified among institutions and surgeons. Even among institutions and surgical teams with high caseloads, threefold and fivefold differences in reoperation rates were observed between the highest and lowest performing trusts and surgeons. Of the NHS trusts studied, 14.1% (22/156) had adjusted reoperation rates above the upper 99.8% control limit. Factors independently associated with higher risk of reoperation were diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease (odds ratio 1.33 (95% CI 1.24 to 1.42), P0.001), presence of multiple comorbidity (odds ratio 1.34 (1.29 to 1.39), P0.001), social deprivation (1.14 (1.08 to 1.20) for most deprived, P0.001), male sex (1.33 (1.29 to 1.38), P0.001), rectal resection (1.63 (1.56 to 1.71), P0.001), laparoscopic surgery (1.11 (1.03 to 1.20), P = 0.006), and emergency admission (1.21 (1.17 to 1.26), P0.001).There is large variation in reoperation after colorectal surgery between hospitals and surgeons in England. If data accuracy can be assured, reoperation may allow performance to be checked against national standards from current routinely collected data, alongside other indicators such as mortality.

Background Fractures of the proximal femur are an important public health concern. The incidence of hip fractures is an index of osteoporosis burden. There have been no recent studies examining national trends in hip fractures in England. Methods We used national data for 1998–2009 from the English Hospital Episode Statistics database. Patients with an admission for hip fracture (574 482 admissions) were identified. Results Between 1998 and 2009, there was little change in age-standardized hip fracture rates (102.0–101.8 fractures per 100 000 personyears), but age-standardized in-hospital mortality decreased by 16.5% (95% CI (confidence interval): 218.5 to 28.4%) (126.9–106.0 deaths per 1000 hip fracture admissions). The majority of hip fractures and deaths occurred in females and older people. A socioeconomic gradient of 25.9% difference (95% CI: 15.7–36.1%) existed for mortality in 2008 (93.5–117.7 per 1000). Conclusions Hip fracture rates have not decreased in England since 1998, although inpatient mortality rates have declined. There is a socioeconomic gradient for in-hospital hip fracture deaths.

Fractured hips are a common cause of hospitalisation among elderly people, and in the year after treatment the mortality rate may be as much as 30%. For many years medical bodies throughout the world have issued consistent evidence based guidelines for the management of broken hips, but 2002-3 data from the United Kingdom show that implementation of this guidance is patchy. In addition, the data show that the percentage of patients managed conservatively varies considerably between hospitals. These patients have a considerably higher mortality. Further guidance on when to manage conservatively may be appropriate. #### The bottom line