1. 中国玉米供需的耦合时空演变特征分析与应对策略.
- Author
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王森培, 赵颖文, 许钰莎, 胡 旭, and 李 晓
- Subjects
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CENTER of mass , *SPATIOTEMPORAL processes , *SUPPLY & demand , *AGRICULTURAL productivity , *ANIMAL industry - Abstract
[Objective] The aim is to explore the spatio-temporal law and mechanism of the coupling between com supply and demand in China, and to provide scientific basis for regulating regional grain supply and demand balance. [ Method] Based on the centralization index, barycenter model, spatial overlap and Moran index of spatial Lorentz curve, this research discussed the spatio-temporal pattern evolution and dynamic coupling process of maize supply and demand situation in China since 2000 from the overall and regional perspectives. [ Result] ( i) The total supply and demand of China's com achieved a tight equilibrium-overall loose-tight equilibrium transition. With 2015 as the turning point, com yield showed the characteristics of first increasing and then decreasing, and stabilized at 260 million tons. Com consumption showed a fluctuating upward trend, reaching 288 million tons in 2021. ( ii) The regional differences of com production and consumption showed an expanding trend, and the geographical aggregation characteristics were continuously enhanced. The centralization degree of the supply area was higher than that of the consumption area. ( iii) The gravity centers of com production and consumption showed a trend of northeast migration, and the track had obvious stage characteristics. The distance between the gravity centers of com production and consumption showed a dynamic change process of deviation, fluctuation and convergence. ( iv) There was a significant positive spatial correlation between maize production and consumption in China, but the maize production and consumption in different provinces showed distinct spatial agglomeration characteristics. [ Conclusion] The spatial matching of China's com supply and demand was enhanced year by year, and its coupling characteristics changes were consistent with the changes of residents' consumption structure, agricultural production policies and the development process of industry and animal husbandry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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