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Impacts of climate change on agriculture are a major concern worldwide, but uncertainties of climate models and emission scenarios may hamper efforts to adapt to climate change. In this paper, a probabilistic approach is used to estimate the uncertainties and simulate impacts of global warming on wheat production and water use in the main wheat cultivation regions of China, with a global mean temperature (GMT) increase scale relative to 1961-90 values. From output of 20 climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Data Distribution Centre, median values of projected changes in monthly mean climate variables for representative stations are adapted. These are used to drive the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Wheat model to simulate wheat production and water use under baseline and global warming scenarios, with and without consideration of carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effects. Results show that, because of temperature increase, projected wheat-growing periods for GMT changes of 1°, 2°, and 3°C would shorten, with averaged median values of 3.94%, 6.90%, and 9.67%, respectively. There is a high probability of decreasing (increasing) changes in yield and water-use efficiency under higher temperature scenarios without (with) consideration of CO2 fertilization effects. Elevated CO2 concentration generally compensates for the negative effects of warming temperatures on production. Moreover, positive effects of elevated CO2 concentration on grain yield increase with warming temperatures. The findings could be critical for climate-change-driven agricultural production that ensures global food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The only constant in landscapes is change. Among other influences, such as climate change, these changes are driven by political decisions affecting ecosystem services. The overall research objective is to define how the European Union''s political strategies implemented through Rural Development Programmes and the Common Agricultural Policy might influence or change ecosystem goods and services in the future. This paper aims at outlining the research framework and especially focuses on spatially explicit modelling the distribution of subsidy cash flows on farm and parcel level. Experiments with changing political strategies and incentive payments were carried out in the Mondsee catchment (Austria) using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The results were visualised and show the dominant (inter-)national and regional funding programmes of this area. They further display the likely effects of changing political strategies on the monetary value of certain parcels and the overall farm–parcel balance. The validation of an aggregated set of funding measures reveals 15% deviation between the model framework and real subsidy payments. This approach is suitable for both (a) estimating the impact of changed funding strategies at EU level and (b) supporting farmers in identifying the best economic income sources on parcel and farm level. Embedded in the overall research objective the results constitute the basis for opening a discussion on how ecosystem services might change with political intervention strategies in rural areas and resulting landscape changes in the future. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate change will inevitably continue for the next few decades and will have an impact on climate-sensitive agricultural production, emphasizing the need to design effective adaptive strategies to cope with climate risk or take advantage of potential climatic benefits. In this study, the latest version of the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis-Rice (CERES-Rice) model was applied to assess the impacts of climate change and carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization on rice yield, as well as the effectiveness of two popularly adopted adaptive measures in Hunan Province, the main rice-production location in China. The simulation spanned 30 years of baseline (1981-2010) as well as three future periods (2011-40, 2041-70, and 2071-99) with climate data generated by five general circulation models under the newly developed representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The simulation results showed that, in comparison with average rice yield during the baseline (1981-2010), the ensemble-average yield of all cultivars during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s would decrease under both RCPs without CO2 fertilization effects. The ensemble-average yield reduction during the 2080s was alleviated under both RCPs if CO2 fertilization effects were accounted for. Adaptation simulations indicated that two adaptive measures (switching cultivars and changing planting dates) could mitigate the adverse effect to different extents. The intermodel variability under both RCPs was generally small. These findings may provide useful insight into the potential impacts of climate change on rice yield and effective adaptive measures to mitigate the adverse effect of future climate change in Hunan Province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]