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Adaptive farming behavior is a key strategy for farmers to cope with climate change. This paper aims to explore the potential impacts of climate change information sources on farmers’ adaptive farming behavior. This paper clarifies the internal mechanism of three typical information sources, namely government departments, scientific research institutions and neighborhood communication, affecting farmers' adaptive farming behavior. Based on the sample data of 1200 farmers in the main wheat producing areas of Shaanxi Province, the theoretical conjecture is empirically tested. The results showed that the climate change information from government departments and scientific research institutions has a significant positive impact on farmers' adaptive farming behavior, but in the case of considering the three sources of information at the same time, the information source of scientific research institutions has the strongest positive impact on farmers' adaptive farming behavior. After farmers have access to climate change information exchanged by government departments, scientific research institutions and neighbors, their differences in climate change adaptive farming behavior mainly depend on their climate change cognition rather than subject trust factors. Formally organized climate change information represented by government departments and scientific research institutions has a more significant positive impact on farmers' adaptive farming behavior, but this impact depends largely on whether the information obtained by farmers can improve their climate change awareness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China is the prominent area for agricultural production, but it is also the most typical ecological fragile area with frequent drought disasters. Taking Yulin City at Shaanxi Province in China as the case area, the paper aims to investigate the spatio-temporal changes of agricultural vulnerability to drought in China's agro-pastoral ecotone in the period 2000 to 2020. The results show that: 1) the agricultural vulnerability to drought in Yulin City has shifted from high vulnerability in the period 2000–2010 to low vulnerability in the period 2011–2020. 2) There exist obvious spatio-temporal differences of the agricultural vulnerability to drought in Yulin City during the research period. 3) Four sensitive events and 14 resilient events were identified in the research and the crops of Yulin had become more resilient to drought. Finally, the paper put forward with policy implications to make adaptive strategies of agriculture to climate change in China's agro-pastoral ecotone in the future, e.g., carrying out agricultural zoning based on agricultural production conditions, intensifying the construction of disaster prevention and relief system, and integrating with modern agricultural technology to develop new type agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Affected by global warming, the frequency of crop pests and diseases have increased, causing huge losses to agricultural production. To better grasp the development and trends of research on the effects of climate change on crop pests and diseases, the literature on the impact of climate change on crop pests and diseases published from 1990 to 2021 in the Web of Science (WOS) core collection database was used. This study explores the literature characteristics and hotspot evolution through the bibliometric visualization analysis software COOC, VOSviewer, and CiteSpace, with a view to identifying the changing characteristics and trends of research changes in this field. The results showed that the number of literature on the impact of climate change on crop pests and diseases increased rapidly. The main fields involved include environmental sciences, ecology, and agronomy. Papers in these fields mainly published in journals, such as PLos One, Forest Ecology and Management, and Frontiers in Plant Science. The country with the highest number of publications was the United States, followed by China and Australia. The most prolific authors in the top 20 are research scholars from China. The first author of the top 20 highly cited papers was from the United States. It was found that that current research on the impact of climate change on crop pests and diseases mainly focuses on agricultural production and food safety. Modelling and crop growth has maintained steady development. At present, research in this field mainly focuses on pest management strategies under the impact of climate change, the response of single species, and the complex ecological mechanisms behind the response. This study provides unique insights into the research field of the impact of climate change on crop pests and diseases and provides a reference direction for future research development in this field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change leads to the frequent occurrence of natural disasters. It has had a severe impact on agricultural economic growth in China. Based on data in China from 2004 to 2020, this paper uses a fixed-effect model to discuss the effects of natural disasters on agricultural economic growth. The empirical results are as follows. (1) Natural disasters negatively affect agricultural economic growth. The regression coefficient of natural disasters on agricultural economic growth is −0.1183. (2) The inhibition of agricultural economic growth by natural disasters is more prominent in areas with low government attention and average agricultural production conditions. (3) The mechanism analysis shows that natural disasters inhibit agricultural economic growth through channels that cause the spread of diseases and pests. (4) Expanding the scale of agricultural insurance can prevent the impact of natural disasters on agricultural economic growth. This research provides policy recommendations for preventing the negative impacts of natural disasters. Agricultural producers should raise awareness of disaster management and improve the accuracy of disaster warning mechanisms. • This paper measures the level of natural disasters in China. • This paper expands the application field of functional data analysis methods. • This paper examines the mechanism of natural disasters affecting agricultural economic growth. • This paper provides policy suggestions for ensuring agricultural economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The balance between agricultural development and maintenance of agro-ecological environment becomes a huge challenge because of global climate changes. Existing literature on the low-carbon pilot policy proposed by the government of China and whether the problems of agricultural development and agricultural environmental protection can be solved or not have not been reviewed. This paper analyzes the impact of low-carbon pilot policies on agricultural eco-efficiency by using SARAR model based on the data of 281 cities in China. Results show the spatial spillover effects between low-carbon pilot policies and agricultural eco-efficiency. The implementation of low-carbon pilot policy can improve agricultural eco-efficiency. Although restrained by agricultural economic development, this policy has disequilibrium effect on agricultural eco-efficiency, has a relatively large impact on agricultural eco-efficiency in western China and other poor areas, and promotes the reduction of agricultural carbon emission. The effect of the implementation of low-carbon pilot policy is affected by the initial agricultural economic development and urban economic conditions. This research aims to improve the agricultural eco-efficiency and enforce the green development of the agricultural economy via the perspective of the low-carbon pilot policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has a significant impact on agriculture so it is necessary to adapt to climate change to promote agricultural transformation and sustainable development. The key to achieving such a goal is to promote the development of climate smart agriculture (CSA) against the background of climate change. The paper first uses official statistical data to evaluate the effect of climate smart agricultural technology project, and then uses the statistical method of questionnaire survey to further investigate and statistically analyze the implementation effect of climate smart agricultural technology project in the pilot area. Further, semi-structured interview method is employed to conduct more in-depth investigation and analysis on some main topics on the basis of preliminary investigation and statistical analysis. The interviews focus on the environmental and economic effects of project practice, the difficulties of smallholder farmers' technology extension, and the farmers' willingness to participate. The study indicates that to promote climate smart agriculture technologies is an effective way to solve agricultural problem in practice under the background of climate change, and can achieve at least three benefits. The first is to reduce production costs, which can be reduced by 10% to 15% in terms of fertilizers and pesticides alone. The second is to improve productivity, and preliminary results show that food production can be increased by more than 5%. Finally, it has carbon sequestration capabilities and can significantly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, the promotion of climate smart agriculture (CSA) technologies helps to solve the problem of agricultural transformation and sustainable development. To this end, it is necessary to drive the transformation and optimization of regional agricultural ecological environment and production system, and promote the innovation and extension of CSA technology. In addition, some soft conditions (e.g., talent, system and technology, etc.) and hard conditions (e.g., modern agricultural supply chain, agricultural big data and the Internet of Things, etc.), must be created, too. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture affects and is affected by climate change. The development of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an effective way for agricultural production to cope with climate change. The rice-crayfish coculture system is a combination of the concept of climate-smart agriculture with the experience of traditional Chinese mixed crop-fish systems. This paper reviews the advantages and potential risks of rice-crayfish coculture with respect to climate, ecological environment and economic benefits, and summarises the successful management strategies and operation experiences during the implementation of this CSA practice in Qianjiang City. We also introduce various mixed crop-fish systems in China and suggest the potential of using wetland resources to develop mixed crop-fish systems and CSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture affects and is affected by climate change. The development of climatesmart agriculture (CSA) is an effective way for agricultural production to cope with climate change. The rice-crayfish coculture system is a combination of the concept of climate-smart agriculture with the experience of traditional Chinese mixed crop-fish systems. This paper reviews the advantages and potential risks of rice-crayfish coculture with respect to climate, ecological environment and economic benefits, and summarises the successful management strategies and operation experiences during the implementation of this CSA practice in Qianjiang City. We also introduce various mixed crop-fish systems in China and suggest the potential of using wetland resources to develop mixed crop-fish systems and CSA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding future climate change is crucial for securing and managing water supplies necessary for agricultural activities in China, particularly in rainfed agriculture regions. This paper evaluates the projected climate change for nine major agricultural zones in China, using ensembles of regional climate models (RCMs) simulated under the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment-East Asia second phase (CORDEX-EA-II) framework. The simulations were conducted for two climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) at a 25 km grid spacing, with three RCMs (RegCM4, REMO, and WRF) driven by multiple CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs). The study compares the RCM simulations to the driving CMIP5 and the recent CMIP6 ensembles, focusing on surface temperature, precipitation, and surface relative humidity for the present day (1981–2010), mid-future (2036–2065), and far future (2070–2099) periods. The model evaluations indicate that the GCM and RCM simulations are consistent with observations, with RCMs showing better performance than the driving GCMs. The results show that both GCMs and RCMs project increased temperature and precipitation in most agricultural zones of China in the future, with the CMIP6 ensembles projecting the largest temperature increase and the CORDEX-EA-II ensemble showing the finest spatial details. Relative humidity is projected to decrease over major rice-producing areas of South China in the CORDEX-EA-II, CMIP5, and CMIP6 ensembles. This study provides valuable information to support climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts in China, particularly in the agricultural sectors. • CORDEX-EA-II simulations demonstrate better model performance over China. • Temperature and precipitation are projected to increase in the future. • Relative humidity is projected to decrease over South China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the effects of global climate change is increase in the frequency and severity of drought, which strongly affects the Chinese agricultural production. In order to cope these changes more effectively, it is important to document and analyze the agricultural losses caused by drought. We collected and analyzed conventional meteorological data and agricultural statistics data, in order to outline trends in drought occurrence and decline in agricultural yield. Data were assembled for the period 1960-2010. The study pays particular attention to regional differences between northern and southern China. Our results show the drought-caused agricultural loss rates (DCALR) in China have increased by approximately 0.5% per decade in the past 50 years. The study area in this paper is for the whole of the People's Republic of China, minus the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau; when we analyzed regional differences, we found that losses increased by approximately 0.6% per decade in northern China, close to twice the increase in southern China. Moreover, drought risks and agricultural losses are rising faster in northern China. Our results also indicate that the agriculture in northern China is more sensitive to changes in precipitation, whereas the agriculture in southern China is more sensitive to temperature changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change shifts the distributions of a set of climatic variables, including temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, sunshine duration, and evaporation. This paper explores the importance of those additional climatic variables other than temperature and precipitation. Using the county-level agricultural data from 1980 to 2010 in China, we find that those additional climatic variables, especially humidity and wind speed, are critical for crop growth. Therefore, omitting those variables is likely to bias the predicted impacts of climate change on crop yields. In particular, omitting humidity tends to overpredict the cost of climate change on crop yields, while ignoring wind speed is likely to underpredict the effect. Our preferred specification indicates that climate change is likely to decrease the yields of rice, wheat, and corn in China by 36.25%, 18.26%, and 45.10%, respectively, by the end of this century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maize is one of the major crops in China and its yield potential has been changed significantly by climate change induction during last five decades. The national policy of maize production sufficiency emphasizes the necessity for a more accurate estimation of yield potential of maize at a national level. In this paper yield potential of maize was calculated using the Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) model and key meteorological factors impact on yield potential across China was also analyzed. The results shows that, total yield potential of maize increased by 0.15 million tons/year during the past five decades due to an increase in cultivated area as a result of climate change impact. The partial correlation analysis between main meteorological factors and yield potential of maize at a county level showed that 47% of the counties of China were predominately influenced by changes in solar radiation while 16% of counties were predominately affected by temperature changes. In addition, each agricultural zone showed clear spatial difference in the distribution of key impact factors. These research findings will not only provide scientific basis for making good use of meteorological resources under climate change, but also play a vital role for the management of national maize production for food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a detailed analysis of how future climate change may affect water availability in a typical arid endorheic river basin, the Heihe River basin (HRB), in northwest China. The analysis is based on the improved Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which is calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data from the upper HRB and is used to predict future hydrological responses. Six general circulation models (GCMs), under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), are downscaled to construct future climate change scenarios. The results suggest that the climate of the upper HRB will likely become warmer and wetter in the near future (2021-50), with the largest increase in precipitation occurring in the summer. Correspondingly, the basinwide evapotranspiration, snowmelt, and runoff are projected to increase over the same period. The mean temperature in the near future is projected to rise, relative to the recent 30 years (1981-2010), by 1.2°-1.7°C under scenario RCP4.5 and by 1.4°-2.1°C under scenario RCP8.5. The mean precipitation is projected to increase by 10.0%-16.6% under scenario RCP4.5, and by 10.5%-22.0% under scenario RCP8.5. The mean values of evapotranspiration, snowmelt, and runoff are expected to increase by 14.2%, 4.3%, and 11.4%, respectively, under scenario RCP4.5 and to increase by 18.7%, 5.8%, and 12.8%, respectively, under scenario RCP8.5. Though the model simulations forecast an increase in streamflows in the headwater region of the HRB, future water availability varies significantly over space and time. The findings of this study will help to frame more effective water management strategies for the HRB under changing climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risk assessment of drought disaster is necessary for the sustained agriculture development under the background of global climate change, and, meanwhile, it is an urgent scientific issue needed to be solved in agricultural risk assessment discipline. In this paper, collecting the areas covered by drought disasters, areas affected by drought disasters, areas with no harvest by drought disasters, areas planted, and yield per unit area data, agricultural drought disasters losses of the southern five provinces in China were calculated. The best probability density function was obtained according to the goodness of fit test results. Then, the value at risk (VaR) from financial market risk research method was used to the effective measure of agricultural drought risk. The results show that, in southern five provinces of our research region, risk of agricultural drought disaster in Yunnan and Guizhou is greater than other three provinces. In the scenario of 50 years and 100 years for a return, the crop loss caused by drought will reach 13.6% and 17.4% in Yunnan province, and the crop loss will be more serious in Guizhou province and be up to 15.3% and 18.1%. The above results can provide multifaceted information about drought risk that can help to guide management of drought disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potentially devastating impacts of climate change on crop production and food security are now widely acknowledged. An important component of efforts to mitigate these impacts is the production of new varieties of crops which will be able to thrive in more extreme and changeable environmental conditions. There is therefore an urgent need to find new sources of genetic diversity for crop improvement. Wild plant species closely related to crops (crop wild relatives) contain vital sources of such genes, yet these resources themselves are threatened by the effects of climate change, as well as by a range of other human-induced pressures and socio-economic changes. The flora of China comprises more than 20,000 native higher plant species, a proportion of which have known or potential value as gene donors for crop improvement. However, until now, the full range of these valuable crop wild relative species had not been identified. In this paper we present a methodology for creating a checklist of, and prioritizing China’s crop wild relatives, and reveal that 871 native species are related to crops that are of particularly high socio-economic importance in China—including rice, wheat, soybean, potato, sweet potato, millet and yam—crops which are also of notably high value for food and economic security in other parts of the world. Within this list we have identified species that are in particular need of conservation assessment based on their relative Red List status and potential for use in crop improvement programs. Endemic species that have particularly high economic value potential in China and that are under severe threat of genetic erosion and thus in need of urgent conservation action include wild relatives of tea ( Camellia fangchengensis S. Yun Liang et Y.C. Zhong and C. grandibracteata H.T. Chang et F.L. Yu), apple ( e.g ., Malus honanensis Rehder, M. ombrophila Hand.-Mazz. and M. toringoides (Rehder) Hughes), and pear ( Pyrus pseudopashia T.T. Yu). We provide recommendations for developing a systematic and comprehensive national CWR conservation strategy for China, highlighting the challenges and requirements of taking the strategy forward to the implementation phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on compilation of a large number of archaeological and palaeosol 14C-ages, the Summed Probability Method is used to reconstruct population history and climatic patterns on the Chinese Loess Plateau during the period 8.5–3.5 cal. ka BP. During this period, the population experienced two major expansion periods and several climatic fluctuations. The first population expansion began at around 7.8 cal. ka BP, and the second at around 5.8 cal. ka BP. During the first period, although already in combination with cultivation of broomcorn millet the population growth was supported mainly by hunting and gathering. With the switch from broomcorn millet to foxtail millet, plant cultivation became the major factor promoting a second population increase. In this paper, we demonstrate that, initially, suitable climate and agriculture both can facilitate population growth and climate events had a significant influence on demographic fluctuations. However, when reaching the threshold of land capacity, population became increasingly more sensitive towards climate fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The farming-pastoral region of North China is a region that has suffered from serious desertification, and the multiple transitional characteristics in this region make it very difficult to link the progress of desertification to the driving forces behind it. This paper mainly focuses on the dynamics of desertification over the past 10 years and their relationship to climate change and human activity. According to the MODIS images in 2000 and 2010, the farming-pastoral region had experienced significant desertification dynamics over the past 10 years. The area of regions that had undergone desertification reversion and expansion were 186,240 km 2 and 199,525 km 2 respectively, and the spatial distribution of these regions showed great heterogeneity. The relationship between desertification dynamics and their driving forces was investigated by comparing the change in the NPP that was induced by climate change and human activity for each pixel that experienced desertification reversion and expansion. From 2000 to 2010, the coupling of climate change and human activity was the dominant factor behind desertification reversion. However, the human activity was the dominant factor that controlled the desertification expansion process between 2000 and 2010. The driving processes of desertification also had considerable spatial heterogeneity, and the dominant factors behind desertification reversion and expansion in each sub-region were not completely the same. So, the scale effect must be considered when explaining the results from similar studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The yield gap (YG) between the potential yields (Yp) and the average on-farm yields (Ya) is an indicator of the potential improvement for crop production. Understanding how large the current gap is and how this gap has changed over the past few decades is essential for increasing wheat production to meet increased food demand in China. This paper describes a study conducted using an APSIM-Wheat model and farm-level crop yield to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of the yield gap of winter wheat from 1981 to 2010 in the North China Plain. Nine varieties were calibrated and evaluated based on the data from 16 agro-meteorological experimental sites and then potential yields were estimated considering cultivar replacement. In addition, a trend pattern analysis of on-farm yields for the period 1981-2010 was conducted. Results revealed an estimated yield gap across the entire North China Plain region of 1140-6810 kg ha-1, with a weight average of 3630 kg ha-1 in 1981-2010. Expressed as a relative yield (yield gap % of potential yields), the range was 15-80%, and the weight average was 45%. Despite the negative effects of increasing temperature and decreasing radiation, the potential yields significantly increased by 45 kg ha-1 per year due to cultivar improvement. On-farm yields increased even more notably because of new cultivar selection, increased fertilizer application and other management improvements, but were stagnating in 32.3% of wheat areas, located mainly in Hebei province, Shandong province, Beijing and Tianjin. The improvement of on-farm yields have substantially contributed to yield gap spatio-temporal variation. As a result, the yield gap decreased from 4200 kg ha-1 (56%) in 1981-1990 to 3000 kg ha-1 (35%) in 2001-2010 at a rate of -69 kg ha-1 per year. However, yields stagnation will expand to the northern Henan province without cultivar potential productivity improving, where yield gap was close to or less than 20% of the potential yields and proved difficult to reduce. To further improve the total production of winter wheat in the coming decades, efforts should be paid to break the potential ceiling and reduce the yield gap by breeding higher yield variety and introduction of new agricultural technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The agricultural sector is extremely vulnerable to climate change and also plays a very important role in the operation of the entire economic system, leading many studies to evaluate the possible agricultural direct economic damage (ADED) of climate change. However, this damage may have an amplification impact through the intricate industrial linkages that exist among sectors, and this impact may be even greater than the original damage. Therefore, to elucidate the economic cascading effect (ECE) in China caused by ADED and industrial linkage, this paper used the ARIO model to evaluate the total ECE and analyse the differences in the 19 sectors by taking the ADED under future annual mean temperature (AMT) increases of 1–5 °C as the input condition and adjusting the exogenous parameters to enhance the adaptability of the model; the goal was to assess the economic impact of climate change in China. The results show that (i) there is a significant amplifying impact of ECE due to industrial linkage under the influence of warming, ECE will be 4.24–5.25 times that of ADED, and the total economic impact (ADED + ECE) will exceed the GDP of the Chinese capital of Beijing in 2012 when the AMT increases by 1.5 °C, while it will exceed one tenth of China's GDP when it increases by 4 °C. (ii) Manufacturing will be the sector most affected by the industrial linkage under ADED, which accounts for 26.58% of total ECE, followed by agriculture (10.39%) and construction (8.5%). (iii) The decrease in cultivated land area will have a significant impact on the economy; when it is reduced to the minimum demand (1.41% less than 2012), ADED increases by 1.65 times and ECE increases by 2.35 times. This paper aims to provide a new perspective from which to evaluate the economic impact of climate change by studying ECEs behind sectoral interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts of climate change on agriculture are a major concern worldwide, but uncertainties of climate models and emission scenarios may hamper efforts to adapt to climate change. In this paper, a probabilistic approach is used to estimate the uncertainties and simulate impacts of global warming on wheat production and water use in the main wheat cultivation regions of China, with a global mean temperature (GMT) increase scale relative to 1961-90 values. From output of 20 climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Data Distribution Centre, median values of projected changes in monthly mean climate variables for representative stations are adapted. These are used to drive the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Wheat model to simulate wheat production and water use under baseline and global warming scenarios, with and without consideration of carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effects. Results show that, because of temperature increase, projected wheat-growing periods for GMT changes of 1°, 2°, and 3°C would shorten, with averaged median values of 3.94%, 6.90%, and 9.67%, respectively. There is a high probability of decreasing (increasing) changes in yield and water-use efficiency under higher temperature scenarios without (with) consideration of CO2 fertilization effects. Elevated CO2 concentration generally compensates for the negative effects of warming temperatures on production. Moreover, positive effects of elevated CO2 concentration on grain yield increase with warming temperatures. The findings could be critical for climate-change-driven agricultural production that ensures global food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: With the increasing accumulation of data on early rice farming in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, this region has become one of the most important places to trace the origin and development of agriculture. This paper gives a general evaluation of some early rice sites, including the Hemudu, Majiabang, Kuahuqiao, and Shangshan cultures in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River; the Pengtoushan and Chengbeixi cultures, and the Xianrendong, Diaotonghuan and Yuchanyan sites in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River; and the Jiahu site in North China, and recognizes three main development stages of the prehistoric rice forming in China, i.e. initial stage (before 8000 BC, approximately equal to Mesolithic Age), developing stage (between 8000 BC and 5000 BC) and maturating stage (since 5000 BC). The initiation of agriculture is suggested to come with the establishment of more or less sedentary residences, which coexists with the occurrence of pottery making. Warming climate after the last glaciations is considered as a major factor that allowed the distribution of the wild rice northward. Food requirement and storage are another factor in initiating early rice farming, while the increasing population and the Holocene Maximum warm climate condition might greatly promote its development. Evidence from the middle and lower Yangtze River area exhibits the transitional process from a hunting and gathering society to an agriculture-oriented society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]