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Your search keyword '"Contreras, Daniel A."' showing total 4 results
Start Over Author "Contreras, Daniel A." Topic agriculture
4 results on '"Contreras, Daniel A."'

2. Regional paleoclimates and local consequences: Integrating GIS analysis of diachronic settlement patterns and process-based agroecosystem modeling of potential agricultural productivity in Provence (France)

Author

Contreras, Daniel A., Hiriart, Eneko, Bondeau, Alberte, Kirman, Alan, Guiot, Joël, Bernard, Loup, Suarez, Romain, Van Der Leeuw, Sander, Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Avignon Université (AU), Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille (GREQAM), École Centrale de Marseille (ECM)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU), University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System, Centre Camille Jullian - Histoire et archéologie de la Méditerranée et de l'Afrique du Nord de la protohistoire à la fin de l'Antiquité (CCJ), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Ministère de la Culture et de la Communication (MCC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), IRAMAT-Centre de recherche en physique appliquée à l’archéologie (IRAMAT-CRP2A), Institut de Recherches sur les Archéomatériaux (IRAMAT), Université d'Orléans (UO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Bordeaux Montaigne-Université de Technologie de Belfort-Montbeliard (UTBM)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Bordeaux Montaigne-Université de Technologie de Belfort-Montbeliard (UTBM), National Centre of Scientific Research (CAMS-CERMESCNRS- EHESS), Paris, France, Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA), Aix Marseille Université (AMU), Arizona State University [Tempe] (ASU), ANR-11-LABX-0061,OTMed,Objectif Terre : Bassin Méditerranéen(2011), ANR-11-IDEX-0001,Amidex,INITIATIVE D'EXCELLENCE AIX MARSEILLE UNIVERSITE(2011), Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-École Centrale de Marseille (ECM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Technologie de Belfort-Montbeliard (UTBM)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Université Bordeaux Montaigne (UBM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Technologie de Belfort-Montbeliard (UTBM)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Université Bordeaux Montaigne (UBM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École Centrale de Marseille (ECM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS), Université de Technologie de Belfort-Montbeliard (UTBM)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Université Bordeaux Montaigne-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Technologie de Belfort-Montbeliard (UTBM)-Université d'Orléans (UO)-Université Bordeaux Montaigne-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Collège de France (CdF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), ANR: 11-LABX-0061,Labex OT- Med,ANR-11-LABEX-0061, and ANR-11-IDEX-0001-02/11-IDEX-0001,AMIDEX,AMIDEX(2011)

Subjects
Crops, Agricultural, Holocene climate variability, Atmospheric Science, Science, Climate Change, Climate, Culture, Social Sciences, Stone Age, Agricultural productivity, Human Geography, Sociology, Climate change damages, Analysis of archaeological, Human consequences, Humans, Paleoclimates, Paleoclimatology, Ecosystem, Climatology, Quaternary Period, Holocene Epoch, Geography, Biology and Life Sciences, Paleontology, Geology, Geologic Time, Agriculture, Archaeology, Neolithic Period, Paleogeography, Settlement Patterns, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Earth Sciences, Cenozoic Era, Geographic Information Systems, Medicine, Mediterranean Basin, France, Research Article
Abstract

International audience; Holocene climate variability in the Mediterranean Basin is often cited as a potential driver of societal change, but the mechanisms of this putative influence are generally little explored. In this paper we integrate two tools-agro-ecosystem modeling of potential agricultural yields and spatial analysis of archaeological settlement pattern data-in order to examine the human consequences of past climatic changes. Focusing on a case study in Provence (France), we adapt an agro-ecosystem model to the modeling of potential agricultural productivity during the Holocene. Calibrating this model for past crops and agricultural practices and using a downscaling approach to produce high spatiotemporal resolution paleoclimate data from a Mediterranean Holocene climate reconstruction, we estimate realistic potential agricultural yields under past climatic conditions. These serve as the basis for spatial analysis of archaeological settlement patterns, in which we examine the changing relationship over time between agricultural productivity and settlement location. Using potential agricultural productivity (PAgP) as a measure of the human consequences of climate changes, we focus on the relative magnitudes of 1) climate-driven shifts in PAgP and 2) the potential increases in productivity realizable through agricultural intensification. Together these offer a means of assessing the scale and mechanisms of the vulnerability and resilience of Holo-cene inhabitants of Provence to climate change. Our results suggest that settlement patterns were closely tied to PAgP throughout most of the Holocene, with the notable exception Citation: Contreras DA, Hiriart E, Bondeau A, Kirman A, Guiot J, Bernard L, et al. (2018) Regional paleoclimates and local consequences: Integrating GIS analysis of diachronic settlement patterns and process-based agroecosystem modeling of potential agricultural productivity in Provence (France) of the period from the Middle Bronze Age through the Early Iron Age. This pattern does not appear to be linked to any climatically-driven changes in PAgP, and conversely the most salient changes in PAgP during the Holocene cannot be clearly linked to any changes in settlement pattern. We argue that this constitutes evidence that vulnerability and resilience to climate change are strongly dependent on societal variables.

Published
2018

3. From paleoclimate variables to prehistoric agriculture: Using a process-based agro-ecosystem model to simulate the impacts of Holocene climate change on potential agricultural productivity in Provence, France.

Author

Contreras, Daniel A., Bondeau, Alberte, Guiot, Joël, Kirman, Alan, Hiriart, Eneko, Bernard, Loup, Suarez, Romain, and Fader, Marianela

Subjects
*AGRICULTURAL productivity, *CLIMATE change, *CLIMATE extremes, *MEDITERRANEAN climate, *CROPS, *CLIMATIC zones, *AGRICULTURE
Abstract

Abstract This paper explores the relationship between past climate and prehistoric Mediterranean agriculture by adapting a process-based dynamic vegetation model to estimate potential agricultural productivity under climate scenarios that characterize the extremes of Mediterranean climate in the Holocene. We adapt LPJmL (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena-managed-land model [Bondeau et al., 2007]), a process-based dynamic vegetation model, to the modeling of potential agricultural productivity in the past. Calibrating this model for past crops and agricultural practices and using a downscaling approach to produce high spatiotemporal resolution paleoclimate data, we produce quantitative estimates of potential yields under past climatic conditions derived from four Holocene climatic extremes (warm/wet, warm/dry, cold/wet, and cold/dry) under two different assumptions (approximate high and low limits) about the intensity of agricultural practice. We here discuss this process with reference to a case study in Provence, examining the methodology and data requirements for modeling past agriculture using LPJmL and considering the implications of the range of variability in potential agricultural productivity under distinct climate conditions. We focus particularly on comparing the range of variability induced by climatic shifts with that achievable through changes in agricultural practices as a means of approaching questions of past vulnerability and resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2019
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