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Significant increase in wintertime air temperature, especially the reduced cold extremes under climate change, might be beneficial to the winter survival of perennial crops. However, climate warming could result in less snowfall, reduced snow cover, as well as changes in climate conditions for fall hardening and winter thaws. How these changes might impact the risks of winter damages to overwintering crops, such as perennial forage crops requires a comprehensive assessment for proactively adapting to climate change in the agricultural sector, especially the beef and dairy industries. Based on the most up-to-date climate projections from a set of global climate models, we used a snow model and a suite of agroclimatic indices for perennial forage crops to assess potential changes in the risks of winter injury to perennial forage crops across Canada in the near-term (2030s), the mid-term (2050s), and the distant future (2070s). Our results show that the risk of exposure to extremely low temperatures (daily Tmin ≤ −15 °C) without snow protection is projected to decrease across Canada with improved conditions for fall hardening. However, winter thaws and rainfall are projected to increase, and this would increase the risk of winter injury due to loss of hardiness together with potential soil heaving and ice encasement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding microclimate spatial variability is crucial for sustainable and optimised grape production within vineyard plots. By employing a combination of a microclimate model (NicheMapR) and multiple climate data sources, this study aimed to achieve microclimatic analysis in two vineyard plots, Quinta do Bomfim (northern Portugal) and Herdade do Esporão (southern Portugal). This approach provides an innovative 10 m spatial resolution for climate variables. This study incorporated local station hourly data with quantile mapping bias correction on the ERA5-land data. The microclimate model output was employed to perform bias correction on a EURO-CORDEX model ensemble. Climate extreme and bioclimatic indices specifically targeted to viticulture were calculated for each vineyard plot. The 10 m scale was analysed to identify potential shifts in temperature extremes, precipitation patterns, and other crucial climatic variables for grape cultivation within each specific plot. The significance of microclimate analyses was higher in areas with intricate topography, while in areas with smooth slopes, the variation of climatic variables was determined to be negligible. There was a projected increase in the median temperature of approximately 3.5 °C and 3.6 °C and a decrease in precipitation of approximately 98 mm and 105 mm in Quinta do Bomfim and Herdade do Esporão, respectively, when comparing a future scenario for the period 2071–2100 against the historical period (1981–2010). Hence, this study offers a comprehensive and future-oriented method for analysing microclimates in vineyard plots. By incorporating geospatial data, ERA5-land data, and the microclimate NicheMapR model, this research aimed to enhance the understanding of current microclimates and future climate scenarios for viticulturists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate plays a fundamental role in agriculture because of to its influence on production. All processes are regulated by specific climatic requirements. Furthermore, European agriculture, based on highly developed farming techniques, is mainly oriented to high quality food production that is more susceptible to meteorological hazards. These hazards can modify environment–genotype interactions, which can affect the quality of production. The COST 734 Action (Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture), launched in 2006, is composed of 28 signature countries and is funded by the European Commission. The main objective of the Action is the evaluation of possible impacts arising from climate change and variability on agriculture and the assessment of critical thresholds for various European areas. The Action will concentrate on four different tasks: agroclimatic indices and simulation models, including review and assessment of tools used to relate climate and agricultural processes; evaluation of the current trends of agroclimatic indices and model outputs, including remote sensing; developing and assessing future regional and local scenarios of agroclimatic conditions; and risk assessment and foreseen impacts on agriculture. The work will be carried out by respective Working Groups. This paper presents the results of the analysis of the first phase of inventory activity. Specific questionnaires were disseminated among COST 734 countries to collect information on climate change analysis, studies, and impact at the European level. The results were discussed with respect to their spatial distribution in Europe and to identify possible common long- and short-term strategies for adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we assessed the potential effects of climate change upon the productivity of mountain pastures in the Valtellina valley of Italy. Two species, Trisetum flavescens and Nardus stricta, among the most abundant in Italian pastures, were chosen for the simulation of low- and high-altitude pastures, respectively. We introduced some agroclimatic indices, related to growing season parameters, climate, and water availability, to evaluate the impacts of climate change upon pasture production. First, the dynamic of the pasture species was evaluated for the present period using the climate-driven, hydrologically based model Poli-Hydro, nesting the Poli-Pasture module simulating plants growth. Poli-Pasture was validated against yield data, at province scale, and at local scale. Then, agroclimatic indices were calculated. Subsequently, IPCC scenarios of the Fifth and Sixth Assessment Reports (AR5 and AR6) were used to project species production and agroclimatic indices until the end of the 21st century. In response to increased temperature under all scenarios, a large potential for an increased growing season length and species yield overall (between +30% and +180% for AR5 at 2100) was found. Potential for decreased yield (until −31% for AR5) is seen below 1100 m asl in response to heat stress; however, it is compensated by a large increase higher up (between +50% and +140% for AR5 above 2000 m asl). Larger evapotranspiration is foreseen and larger water demand expected. However, specific (for hectares of pasture) water use would decrease visibly, and no significant water limitations would be seen. Results provide preliminary evidence of potential livestock, and thereby economic development in the valley at higher altitudes than now. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examining the effects of climate change on spring maize, and its suitability under dynamic cultivation patterns, will aid strategic decision-making for future agricultural adaptation. This paper investigates the climate suitability of spring maize, based on daily data from 50 meteorological stations, and statistics on maize yield and area at the county level in Jilin Province, China, between 1986 and 2015. Based on a significant correlation between the cultivation patterns indicator ≥10 °C accumulated temperature (AAT10) and the average yield (R2 = 0.503), the yield data are used to determine suitable thresholds for meteorological factors under the dynamic cultivation pattern, and a fuzzy fitness approach is used to evaluate the climate suitability. The results showed a good agreement between suitability estimates and scaled observed yields (average d = 0.705). Moreover, good consistency between cultivation patterns, climate suitability and yield show that the late-maturing varieties of maize have gradually moved northward and eastward, and the areas of high suitability and high yield have gradually expanded eastward. In addition, drought and chilling hazard factors limit the suitability of climate resources, especially in the eastern and western regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The change in the spatial distribution of agroclimatic conditions based on the sum of active temperatures (SAT), growing degree days (GDD), and latitude–temperature index (LTI) is discussed in this article. Data from 20 meteorological stations of IMGW-PIB (Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute) in Poland from the years 1966–2020 were used. The temporal and spatial diversity of mean air temperature and the chosen indices were analyzed for the period from April to October. Designating areas of diverse thermal conditions with respect to plant comfort on the basis of agroclimatic indices was attempted, together with mean air temperature and its temporal changes. The clustering, using the Ward's method, yielded four regions with different thermal resources in Poland. The study period showed an increase in the values of all agroclimatic indices and air temperature during the growing season, suggesting an increase in the thermal resources in the territory of Poland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the objective of trying to understand the adaptability of agriculture across the Canadian Prairies under climate change, simple‐to‐use agroclimatic indices were calculated for the base climate period of 1981 to 2010 and for both the medium (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emission projections extending to the distant future (2071–2100). The agroclimatic indices included the Effective Growing Degree Days (EGDDs), Growing Season Length (GSL), the Climate Moisture Index (CMI), and the Temperature Humidity Index (THI). For climate change in 30‐year periods, these indices were calculated as multi‐model ensembles of six Global Climate Models recommended under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the study area. We found that the GSL, EGDDs, CMI, and THI were amplified above the values of the base climate period in the order of 40–50 days, 600–1200 heat units, −100 to −120 mm and 3–4 THI units by the close of the distant future (2071–2100) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This amplification has implications on where crop and livestock production could become more suitable or riskier in future. Opportunities include expanding crop and livestock production to more northerly regions which currently have insufficient heat units, a short growing season and unfavourable temperature humidity thresholds for livestock production. Moisture deficits will continue to be the greatest risk during the growing season under climate change scenarios but options exist to implement adaptive measures such as staggering seeding times to take advantage of moisture availability in the spring and autumn seasons and crop substitution. This study has relevance for policy and program formulation and implementation in Canada's agricultural regions and potentially, other areas of the world with similar climate change outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate plays a fundamental role in agriculture. The quantity and quality of crop yield can be affected by water stress, heat stress or frost or by pests and diseases. As climate conditions change, suitability zones for the cultivation of specific crops may shift. For planners and land managers it is important to understand such changes in order to develop short- and long-term adaptation strategies for resource and development planning. In this paper, we present a flexible and comprehensive, rule-based approach for evaluating crop-specific climate suitability. Climate indices are calculated over dynamically estimated phenological phases, and factor suitability functions are defined to relate these phase-specific climate indices to suitability values. The dynamic consideration of crop phenology allows to assess effects of climate-induced shifts in phenological development. To complement the knowledge-based definition of factor suitability functions with empirical data, we introduce an automated procedure for refining this definition within knowledge-based bounds based on observed climate and yield data. The approach was tested and applied for grain maize (Zea mays L.) production in Switzerland. Comparison with independent yield data showed a good agreement with crop-specific climatic suitability, both in terms of temporal and spatial variability. Analysis of phase-specific suitability limitations at three representative sites revealed that suitability during the period 1981–2011 was mostly limited by sub-optimum temperatures and radiation during early and late phases, whereas drought was only an important limitation in exceptionally dry years (e.g. 2003 and 2010). An analysis of constant changes in temperature and precipitation indicated that grain maize suitability at a selected site on the western Central Plateau was more sensitive to temperature changes than to changes in precipitation. This suggests that this crop could benefit from an increase in temperature, not only through shifting towards the temperature optimum, but also by avoiding drought stress through accelerated plant development. However, these positive effects could be counteracted by negative effects of shortened phenology (i.e. reduced biomass accumulation) and heat stress. These results show that the approach offers diverse possibilities for applications, including climate impacts studies, and serves to provide information for the planning of crop adaptation strategies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Landraces are local populations of crop plants adapted to a particular environment. Extant landraces are surviving genetic archives, keeping signatures of the selection processes experienced by them until settling in their current niches. This study intends to establish relationships between genetic diversity of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) landraces collected in Spain and the climate of their collection sites. A high‐resolution climatic data set (5 × 5 km spatial, 1‐day temporal grid) was computed from over 2,000 temperature and 7,000 precipitation stations across peninsular Spain. This data set, spanning the period 1981–2010, was used to derive agroclimatic variables meaningful for cereal production at the collection sites of 135 barley landraces. Variables summarize temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, potential vernalization and frost probability at different times of the year and time scales (season and month). SNP genotyping of the landraces was carried out combining Illumina Infinium assays and genotyping‐by‐sequencing, yielding 9,920 biallelic markers (7,479 with position on the barley reference genome). The association of these SNPs with agroclimatic variables was analysed at two levels of genetic diversity, with and without taking into account population structure. The whole data sets and analysis pipelines are documented and available at https://eead-csic-compbio.github.io/barley-agroclimatic-association. We found differential adaptation of the germplasm groups identified to be dominated by reactions to cold temperature and late‐season frost occurrence, as well as to water availability. Several significant associations pointing at specific adaptations to agroclimatic features related to temperature and water availability were observed, and candidate genes underlying some of the main regions are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cereal production around the world is critical to the food supply for the human population. Crop productivity is primarily determined by a combination of temperature and precipitation because temperatures have to be in the range for plant growth and precipitation has to supply crop water requirements for a given environment. The question is often asked about the changes in productivity and what we can expect in the future and we evaluated the causes for variation in historical annual statewide wheat grain yields in Oklahoma, Kansas, and North Dakota across the Great Plains of United States. Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is adapted to this area and we focused on production in these states from 1950 to 2016. This analysis used a framework for annual yields using yield gaps between attainable and actual yields and found the primary cause of the variation among years were attributable to inadequate precipitation during the grain-filling period. In Oklahoma, wheat yields were reduced when April and May precipitation was limited (r² = 0.70), while in Kansas, May precipitation was the dominant factor (r² = 0.78), and in North Dakota June-July precipitation was the factor explaining yield variation (r² = 0.65). Temperature varied among seasons and at the statewide level did not explain a significant portion of the yield variation. The pattern of increased variation in precipitation will cause further variation in wheat production across the Great Plains. Reducing yield variation among years will require adaptation practices that increase water availability to the crop coupled with the positive impact derived from other management practices, e.g., cultivars, fertilizer management, etc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examining the effects of climate change on spring maize, and its suitability under dynamic cultivation patterns, will aid strategic decision-making for future agricultural adaptation. This paper investigates the climate suitability of spring maize, based on daily data from 50 meteorological stations, and statistics on maize yield and area at the county level in Jilin Province, China, between 1986 and 2015. Based on a significant correlation between the cultivation patterns indicator ≥10 °C accumulated temperature (AAT10) and the average yield (R2 = 0.503), the yield data are used to determine suitable thresholds for meteorological factors under the dynamic cultivation pattern, and a fuzzy fitness approach is used to evaluate the climate suitability. The results showed a good agreement between suitability estimates and scaled observed yields (average d = 0.705). Moreover, good consistency between cultivation patterns, climate suitability and yield show that the late-maturing varieties of maize have gradually moved northward and eastward, and the areas of high suitability and high yield have gradually expanded eastward. In addition, drought and chilling hazard factors limit the suitability of climate resources, especially in the eastern and western regions.

Thermal heat requirement as well as energy components depend on weather parameters. Critical phenological stages was taken into consideration for the thermal heat requirement during 2013-15 under fertigation treatment (25, 50 and 75 per cent of recommended fertilizer dose) in mango cv Dashehari at Lucknow region. Mango productivity varied from 4.54-11.84 t ha-1 across different fertigation regimes as a result of differential thermal heat accumulation. In the treatment 25 per cent RDF, productivity of 5.23, 11.13 and 6.12 t ha-1 was recorded during 2013, 2014 and 2015 while in 50 per cent RDF, 6.23, 11.84 and 7.76 t ha-1 was observed. The maximum yield reduction (37.5, 14 and 26.1%) was found in control plot. A significant variation in radiation energy received during the field experiment was revealed and a range of 8.97 to 16.27 mm day-1 extraterrestrial radiation was observed at different critical phenological stages. The heat use efficiency (HUE) varied between 2.54-6.78 g m-2°Cd-1 across seasons and treatments. Water use efficiency (WUE) of 10.8, 14.1, 13.5 and 11.7 kg fruits m-3 was recorded in different fertigated treatments. The highest reduction in WUE was noted in control (23.9%) followed by 17.2 and 4.8% in 25 and 50 per cent as compared to 75 per cent fertigation regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Changes in several temperature-based agroclimatic indices in the central-eastern of Argentina, most of them located within the Pampas region were analysed for 39 meteorological stations. Trends of first (FFD), last (LFD) and number (NFD) of frost days, frost period (FP), start (SGS), end (EGS) and length (LGS) of the growing season, growing degree days (GDD), diurnal temperature range (DTR), chilling hours and lowest annual minimum temperature were computed for two periods, 1940-2007 and 1975-2007. The largest changes were observed for the whole period 1940-2007 and were mostly indicative of a long-term minimum temperature warming throughout the region. During this period, generalized decreases in the NFD and in the FP (i.e., a delayed FFD and an earlier LFD) were found. Although the trends in the growing season indices were not as large as in the frost indices, they were consistent with the overall warming: an earlier SGS and a delayed in the EGS. The trends of the GDD showed a large variability between months with a generalized increased throughout the year. The DTR showed the largest number of stations with statistically significant negative trends from austral late spring (November) to austral early fall (April). For the period 1975-2007, the behaviour changes in all analysed indices: the short-term trends weakened and in some cases reversed sign. The LFD tended to occurred later in the year, particularly for the southern Pampas. The EGS shifted from mostly positive to negative trends, resulting in a shorter LGS. These trend changes were not spatially homogeneous. Although those short-term trends were predominantly non-statistically significant, they could potential affect management decisions and crop yields. In particular, frost is still an important hazard in agricultural activities and within the context of our results short- and long-term characterization of frost risk need to be considered at local and sub-regional scales. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The harvest and quality of vineyards are determined by the climatic conditions of the region. Viticulture is a promising avenue in the agricultural sector of the Sevastopol region. In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the orographic and climatic conditions and microclimate zoning to optimize the placement of vineyards. Meteorological data (air temperature and precipitation) for the period 1985–2018 were used to assess heat and hydration conditions and to calculate agroclimatic indices for a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of the observed climate change on viticulture. The observed upward trends in heliothermic indices and downward trends in precipitation change the conditions and cause a shift in grape-suitable zones. Based on heat supply and frost resistance, microclimatic zoning of the territory was carried out and 13 ecotopes were identified, for each of the grape varieties that were recommended. Our study indicates that the agroclimatic conditions of the Sevastopol region make it possible to grow grape varieties from very early to late ripening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]