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We have been developing a policy support tool, AIM/impact[policy], for use in the integrated assessment of global warming control targets including the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations, economically efficient emissions paths to realizing these targets, and consequent impacts and risks of these targets. In this study, a quantitative assessment was made of climate changes and global warming impacts, as well as the timing of greenhouse gas reduction policies, under greenhouse gas stabilization constraints. An energy economic model estimating the optimal emissions path for greenhouse gases and an impact assessment model estimating the impacts of global warming in various fields caused by climate changes under this optimal emissions path were used in our assessment. In contrast to the business-as-usual case, our results showed that in order to maintain greenhouse gas concentrations at less than 500 ppm (by volume), reduction volumes must be 3.0 GtCeq/year by 2020 and 12.2 GtCeq/year by 2050, indicating an urgent need for a full-scale reduction system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous CO2 emission scenarios have recently been proposed. However, the time ranges of most scenarios are not long enough to allow analysis of their climate implications. An extrapolation method is proposed to link the emission scenarios with atmospheric stabilization targets that take effect centuries after the scenario period. Using this method, emission scenarios proposed previously are extensively applied to 350 to 750 ppmv CO2 targets during the 23rd century, and allowable emission ranges during the 21st century are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to respond to climate change, it is essential to describe possible future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trajectories in both nonintervention and intervention terms. This paper analyzes long-term GHG mitigation emission scenarios according to alternative development paths in the world and major regions, based on the nonintervention emission scenarios quantified by the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). AIM is revised and applied to the quantification of narrative storylines for scenarios of socioeconomic development, and GHG emissions from energy use, land-use change, and industrial production processes are simulated. A wide range of mitigation policies are adopted in this simulation as responses to the climate change. Several target stabilized levels–650, 550 and 450 ppmv–are analyzed. The results show that to achieve stabilization at a different GHG concentration level, a policy package is essential to reach the target concentration level, rather than a single policy. Energy efficiency improvement will be a key contributor to the reduction of GHG emissions as a result of the policy package. The mitigation cost could be at a medium level, without a large loss of economic growth. The developing world could significantly reduce GHG emissions compared with nonmitigation scenarios with sufficient knowledge transfer from developed countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]