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Recent research on the agricultural impacts of climate change has primarily focused on the roles of temperature and precipitation. These studies show that India has already been negatively affected by recent climate trends. However, anthropogenic climate changes are a result of both global emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). Two potent SLCPs, tropospheric ozone and black carbon, have direct effects on crop yields beyond their indirect effects through climate; emissions of black carbon and ozone precursors have risen dramatically in India over the past three decades. Here, to our knowledge for the first time, we present results of the combined effects of climate change and the direct effects of SLCPs on wheat and rice yields in India from 1980 to 2010. Our statistical model suggests that, averaged over India, yields in 2010 were up to 36% lower for wheat than they otherwise would have been, absent climate and pollutant emissions trends, with some densely populated states experiencing 50% relative yield losses. [Our point estimates for rice (-20%) are similarly large, but not statistically significant.] Upper-bound estimates suggest that an overwhelming fraction (90%) of these losses is due to the direct effects of SLCPs. Gains from addressing regional air pollution could thus counter expected future yield losses resulting from direct climate change effects of LLGHGs.

Background: Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM ≤ 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter; PM(2.5)), are associated with premature mortality and they disrupt global and regional climate., Objectives: We examined the air quality and health benefits of 14 specific emission control measures targeting BC and methane, an ozone precursor, that were selected because of their potential to reduce the rate of climate change over the next 20-40 years., Methods: We simulated the impacts of mitigation measures on outdoor concentrations of PM(2.5) and ozone using two composition-climate models, and calculated associated changes in premature PM(2.5)- and ozone-related deaths using epidemiologically derived concentration-response functions., Results: We estimated that, for PM(2.5) and ozone, respectively, fully implementing these measures could reduce global population-weighted average surface concentrations by 23-34% and 7-17% and avoid 0.6-4.4 and 0.04-0.52 million annual premature deaths globally in 2030. More than 80% of the health benefits are estimated to occur in Asia. We estimated that BC mitigation measures would achieve approximately 98% of the deaths that would be avoided if all BC and methane mitigation measures were implemented, due to reduced BC and associated reductions of nonmethane ozone precursor and organic carbon emissions as well as stronger mortality relationships for PM(2.5) relative to ozone. Although subject to large uncertainty, these estimates and conclusions are not strongly dependent on assumptions for the concentration-response function., Conclusions: In addition to climate benefits, our findings indicate that the methane and BC emission control measures would have substantial co-benefits for air quality and public health worldwide, potentially reversing trends of increasing air pollution concentrations and mortality in Africa and South, West, and Central Asia. These projected benefits are independent of carbon dioxide mitigation measures. Benefits of BC measures are underestimated because we did not account for benefits from reduced indoor exposures and because outdoor exposure estimates were limited by model spatial resolution.

Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC) contribute to both degraded air quality and global warming. We considered ~400 emission control measures to reduce these pollutants by using current technology and experience. We identified 14 measures targeting methane and BC emissions that reduce projected global mean warming ~0.5°C by 2050. This strategy avoids 0.7 to 4.7 million annual premature deaths from outdoor air pollution and increases annual crop yields by 30 to 135 million metric tons due to ozone reductions in 2030 and beyond. Benefits of methane emissions reductions are valued at $700 to $5000 per metric ton, which is well above typical marginal abatement costs (less than $250). The selected controls target different sources and influence climate on shorter time scales than those of carbon dioxide-reduction measures. Implementing both substantially reduces the risks of crossing the 2°C threshold.

The Mediterranean Intensive Oxidant Study, performed in the summer of 2001, uncovered air pollution layers from the surface to an altitude of 15 kilometers. In the boundary layer, air pollution standards are exceeded throughout the region, caused by West and East European pollution from the north. Aerosol particles also reduce solar radiation penetration to the surface, which can suppress precipitation. In the middle troposphere, Asian and to a lesser extent North American pollution is transported from the west. Additional Asian pollution from the east, transported from the monsoon in the upper troposphere, crosses the Mediterranean tropopause, which pollutes the lower stratosphere at middle latitudes.

The Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) was an international, multiplatform field campaign to measure long-range transport of air pollution from South and Southeast Asia toward the Indian Ocean during the dry monsoon season in January to March 1999. Surprisingly high pollution levels were observed over the entire northern Indian Ocean toward the Intertropical Convergence Zone at about 6 degrees S. We show that agricultural burning and especially biofuel use enhance carbon monoxide concentrations. Fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning cause a high aerosol loading. The growing pollution in this region gives rise to extensive air quality degradation with local, regional, and global implications, including a reduction of the oxidizing power of the atmosphere.

Anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols are associated with climate change and human health risks. We used a global model to estimate the climate and public health outcomes attributable to fossil fuel use, indicating the potential benefits of a phaseout. We show that it can avoid an excess mortality rate of 3.61 (2.96-4.21) million per year from outdoor air pollution worldwide. This could be up to 5.55 (4.52-6.52) million per year by additionally controlling nonfossil anthropogenic sources. Globally, fossil-fuel-related emissions account for about 65% of the excess mortality, and 70% of the climate cooling by anthropogenic aerosols. The chemical influence of air pollution on aeolian dust contributes to the aerosol cooling. Because aerosols affect the hydrologic cycle, removing the anthropogenic emissions in the model increases rainfall by 10-70% over densely populated regions in India and 10-30% over northern China, and by 10-40% over Central America, West Africa, and the drought-prone Sahel, thus contributing to water and food security. Since aerosols mask the anthropogenic rise in global temperature, removing fossil-fuel-generated particles liberates 0.51(±0.03) °C and all pollution particles 0.73(±0.03) °C warming, reaching around 2 °C over North America and Northeast Asia. The steep temperature increase from removing aerosols can be moderated to about 0.36(±0.06) °C globally by the simultaneous reduction of tropospheric ozone and methane. We conclude that a rapid phaseout of fossil-fuel-related emissions and major reductions of other anthropogenic sources are needed to save millions of lives, restore aerosol-perturbed rainfall patterns, and limit global warming to 2 °C.

Throughout the year, average sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea are warm enough to support the development of tropical cyclones, but the atmospheric monsoon circulation and associated strong vertical wind shear limits cyclone development and intensification, only permitting a pre-monsoon and post-monsoon period for cyclogenesis. Thus a recent increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean is thought to be related to the weakening of the climatological vertical wind shear. At the same time, anthropogenic emissions of aerosols have increased sixfold since the 1930s, leading to a weakening of the southwesterly lower-level and easterly upper-level winds that define the monsoonal circulation over the Arabian Sea. In principle, this aerosol-driven circulation modification could affect tropical cyclone intensity over the Arabian Sea, but so far no such linkage has been shown. Here we report an increase in the intensity of pre-monsoon Arabian Sea tropical cyclones during the period 1979-2010, and show that this change in storm strength is a consequence of a simultaneous upward trend in anthropogenic black carbon and sulphate emissions. We use a combination of observational, reanalysis and model data to demonstrate that the anomalous circulation, which is radiatively forced by these anthropogenic aerosols, reduces the basin-wide vertical wind shear, creating an environment more favourable for tropical cyclone intensification. Because most Arabian Sea tropical cyclones make landfall, our results suggest an additional impact on human health from regional air pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An estimate of monthly 3-D aerosol solar heating rates and surface solar fluxes in Asia from 2001 to 2004 is described here. This product stems from an Asian aerosol assimilation project, in which a) the PNNL regional model bounded by the NCEP reanalyses was used to provide meteorology, b) MODIS and AERONET data were integrated for aerosol observations, c) the Iowa aerosol/chemistry model STEM-2K1 used the PNNL meteorology and assimilated aerosol observations, and d) 3-D (X-Y-Z) aerosol simulations from the STEM-2K1 were used in the Scripps Monte-Carlo Aerosol Cloud Radiation (MACR) model to produce total and anthropogenic aerosol direct solar forcing for average cloudy skies. The MACR model and STEM-2K1 both used the PNNL model resolution of 0.45°×0.4° in the horizontal and of 23 layers in the troposphere. The 2001-2004 averaged anthropogenic all-sky aerosol forcing is -1.3Wm-2 (TOA), +7.3Wm-2 (atmosphere) and -8.6Wm-2 (surface) averaged in Asia (60-138° E and Equator-45° N). In the absence of AERONET SSA assimilation, absorbing aerosol concentration (especially BC aerosol) is much smaller, giving -2.3Wm-2 (TOA), +4.5Wm-2 (atmosphere) and -6.8Wm-2 (surface), averaged in Asia. In the vertical, monthly forcing is mainly concentrated below 600 hPa with maximum around 800 hPa. Seasonally, lowlevel forcing is far larger in dry season than in wet season in South Asia, whereas the wet season forcing exceeds the dry season forcing in East Asia. The anthropogenic forcing in the present study is similar to that in Chung et al. (2005) in overall magnitude but the former offers fine-scale features and simulated vertical profiles. The interannual variability of the computed anthropogenic forcing is significant and extremely large over major emission outflow areas. Given the interannual variability, the present study's estimate is within the implicated range of the 1999 INDOEX result. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) warm the surface and the atmosphere with significant implications for rainfall, retreat of glaciers and sea ice, sea level, among other factors. About 30 years ago, it was recognized that the increase in tropospheric ozone from air pollution (NO x , CO and others) is an important greenhouse forcing term. In addition, the recognition of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) on stratospheric ozone and its climate effects linked chemistry and climate strongly. What is less recognized, however, is a comparably major global problem dealing with air pollution. Until about ten years ago, air pollution was thought to be just an urban or a local problem. But new data have revealed that air pollution is transported across continents and ocean basins due to fast long-range transport, resulting in trans-oceanic and trans-continental plumes of atmospheric brown clouds (ABCs) containing sub micron size particles, i.e., aerosols. ABCs intercept sunlight by absorbing as well as reflecting it, both of which lead to a large surface dimming. The dimming effect is enhanced further because aerosols may nucleate more cloud droplets, which makes the clouds reflect more solar radiation. The dimming has a surface cooling effect and decreases evaporation of moisture from the surface, thus slows down the hydrological cycle. On the other hand, absorption of solar radiation by black carbon and some organics increase atmospheric heating and tend to amplify greenhouse warming of the atmosphere. ABCs are concentrated in regional and mega-city hot spots. Long-range transport from these hot spots causes widespread plumes over the adjacent oceans. Such a pattern of regionally concentrated surface dimming and atmospheric solar heating, accompanied by widespread dimming over the oceans, gives rise to large regional effects. Only during the last decade, we have begun to comprehend the surprisingly large regional impacts. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

South Asian emissions of fossil fuel SO2 and black carbon increased ≈6-fold since 1930, resulting in large atmospheric concentrations of black carbon and other aerosols. This period also witnessed strong negative trends of surface solar radiation, surface evaporation, and summer monsoon rainfall. These changes over India were accompanied by an increase in atmospheric stability and a decrease in sea surface temperature gradients in the Northern Indian Ocean. We conducted an ensemble of coupled ocean- atmosphere simulations from 1930 to 2000 to understand the role of atmospheric brown clouds in the observed trends. The simulations adopt the aerosol radiative forcing from the Indian Ocean experiment observations and also account for global increases in greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. The simulated decreases in surface solar radiation, changes in surface and atmospheric temperatures over land and sea, and decreases in monsoon rainfall are similar to the observed trends. We also show that greenhouse gases and sulfates, by themselves, do not account for the magnitude or even the sign in many instances, of the observed trends. Thus, our simulations suggest that absorbing aerosols in atmospheric brown clouds may have played a major role in the observed regional climate and hydrological cycle changes and have masked as much as 50% of the surface warming due to the global increase in greenhouse gases. The simulations also raise the possibility that, if current trends in emissions continue, the subcontinent may experience a doubling of the drought frequency in the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deposition of atmospheric aerosols by precipitation is investigated by assimilating near-global 3-hourly precipitation estimates from satellites at 0.25° resolution into a global chemical transport model. Simulations of 21 d duration during February 2002 are performed where satellite observations of surface rain rate are incorporated into the computation of the aerosol removal rate. A steady source of a tracer simulating a soluble aerosol species is imposed on the bottom layer of the model over the Indian Subcontinent at a rate of 0.08μg m−2 s−1. The impacts of wet deposition by observed precipitation patterns upon regional-scale and global-scale transport of aerosols are examined. The results are compared with a model simulation where wet deposition has been turned off and a simulation which uses model-simulated precipitation to compute wet deposition. Observed precipitation patterns are responsible for reducing aerosol amounts over the Indian Ocean basin by about 25% compared with a case with no wet deposition. Over the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere the aerosol amounts are reduced by nearly 80%. Precipitation in the region of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) acts as an effective barrier to the transport of aerosol to the Southern Hemisphere. Virtually all of the wet deposition over the Indian Ocean occurs in grid cells experiencing rain rates of less than 1 mm h−1, even though these events account for only 20% of the total precipitation observed in the region. Light-rain events to the north of the ITCZ occur frequently enough, and scavenge aerosol efficiently enough, to remove much of the aerosol before southward-moving air masses reach the ITCZ. Model-simulated precipitation over the Indian Ocean occurs more frequently than observed by satellite, by as much as 50%, and is characterized by more drizzle events and fewer heavy-rain events than observed. The differences in simulated and observed rain rate distributions result in only a 6% difference in aerosol amount over the Indian Ocean, and an 8% difference over the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere. Satellite observations also reveal that rain events covering more than 80% of the horizontal area of a model grid cell occur up to an order of magnitude more frequently than predicted by a common parametrization of precipitation scavenging. A test of wet deposition based on the observed spatial coverage of surface precipitation suggests that incorrect assumptions about the physical sizes of rain events may result in as much as a factor of 2 over-estimate of the amount of aerosol transported out of the South Asia region to the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere in global atmospheric transport models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses a report published in "Journal of Geophysical Research" by researcher T. C. Bond and colleagues that estimates the global climate forcing and climate change attributed to atmospheric black carbon (BC) soot pollution, which is produced by combustion as well as atmospheric chemical reactions. Black carbon and organic brown carbon (Brc) aerosols absorb light in the atmosphere, increasing heat and altering the optical qualities and precipitation from clouds. Other topics include the role of BC in ocean-atmosphere interactions, the effects of BC snow darkening on sea ice and glacier thawing, and the potential environmental benefits of BC mitigation measures.

Abstract: Black carbon aerosols are a major component of soot and are also a major contributor to global and regional climate change. Reliable and cost-effective systems to measure near-surface black carbon (BC) mass concentrations (hereafter denoted as [BC]) globally are necessary to validate air pollution and climate models and to evaluate the effectiveness of BC mitigation actions. Toward this goal we describe a new wireless, low-cost, ultra low-power, BC cellphone based monitoring system (BC_CBM). BC_CBM integrates a Miniaturized Aerosol filter Sampler (MAS) with a cellphone for filter image collection, transmission and image analysis for determining [BC] in real time. The BC aerosols in the air accumulate on the MAS quartz filter, resulting in a coloration of the filter. A photograph of the filter is captured by the cellphone camera and transmitted by the cellphone to the analytics component of BC_CBM. The analytics component compares the image with a calibrated reference scale (also included in the photograph) to estimate [BC]. We demonstrate with field data collected from vastly differing environments, ranging from southern California to rural regions in the Indo-Gangetic plains of Northern India, that the total BC deposited on the filter is directly and uniquely related to the reflectance of the filter in the red wavelength, irrespective of its source or how the particles were deposited. [BC] varied from 0.1 to 1μgm−3 in Southern California and from 10 to 200μgm−3 in rural India in our field studies. In spite of the 3 orders of magnitude variation in [BC], the BC_CBM system was able to determine the [BC] well within the experimental error of two independent reference instruments for both indoor air and outdoor ambient air. Accurate, global-scale measurements of [BC] in urban and remote rural locations, enabled by the wireless, low-cost, ultra low-power operation of BC_CBM, will make it possible to better capture the large spatial and temporal variations in [BC], informing climate science, health, and policy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Reports a study which demonstrated a mechanism through which aerosols can reduce cloud cover and offset aerosol-induced radiative cooling at the top of the atmosphere on a regional scale. Indications of model simulations of marine stratocumulus; Observations from the Indian Ocean Experiment; Specification on the varying degrees of absorbing aerosol pollution.

Abstract: We address possible sampling biases reported in an earlier work () relating decreases in black carbon (BC) measurements from the IMPROVE monitoring network to diesel emissions in California. A decrease in average BC concentration of between 40 and 60% is found at each site between 1988 and 2007, consistent with the statewide average of 50%. No significant regional biases are found to drive these trends, which are independent of latitude as well as mean BC concentration. We find no reason to revise the conclusions of Bahadur et al, in response to the methodological issues raised by Schichtel et al. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]