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Background: Over 3 million people die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor PM 2·5 air pollution, and more than a quarter of these premature deaths occur in China. In addition to clean-air policies that target pollution emissions, climate policies aimed at reducing fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions (eg, to avoid 1·5°C of warming) might also greatly improve air quality and public health. However, no comprehensive accounting of public health outcomes has been done under different energy pathways and local clean-air management decisions in China. We aimed to develop an integrated method for quantifying the health co-benefits from different climate, energy, and clean-air policy scenarios and to assess the relationship between climate and clean-air policies and future health burdens in China, where an ageing population will further exacerbate the effects of air pollution., Methods: For this modelling study, we used a China-focused integrated assessment model and a dynamic emission projection model to project future Chinese air quality in scenarios spanning a range of global climate targets (1·5°C, 2°C, national determined contributions [NDC], unambitious, baseline, and 4·5°C) and national clean-air actions (termed 2015-pollution, current-pollution, and ambitious-pollution). We then evaluated the health effects of PM 2·5 air pollution in the scenario matrix using the air quality model and the latest epidemiological concentration-response functions from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study., Findings: We found that, without ambitious climate mitigation (eg, under current NDC pledge), Chinese deaths related to PM 2·5 air pollution might not always decrease-and might often grow-by 2050 compared with the base year of 2015, regardless of clean-air policies and air quality improvements. For example, in the scenario that tracks China's current NDC pledge and uses the best available pollution control technologies (the ambitious-pollution and NDC goals scenario), PM 2·5 -related deaths in China would decrease slightly by 2030 to 1·23 million per year (95% CI 0·95-1·51) from 1·25 million (1·04-1·46) in 2015, but would not decrease further by 2050 (1·21 million, 0·86-1·60) despite substantial and continuous improvements in population-weighted air quality (from 27·2 μg/m 3 in 2030 to 16·0 μg/m 3 in 2050). The contrary trends of improving air quality and increasing PM 2·5 -related deaths in many of our scenarios revealed the extent to which extra efforts are needed to compensate for the increasing age of China's population in the future. With the scenarios that included ambitious clean-air policies and met international climate goals to avoid 1·5°C and 2°C of warming (the ambitious-pollution-2°C goals scenario and the ambitious-pollution-1·5°C goals scenario), we observed substantial decreases in China's PM 2·5 -related deaths of 0·32-0·55 million deaths compared with NDC goals in 2050, and age-standardised death rates decreased by 10·2-14·2 deaths per 100 000 population per year., Interpretation: Our results show that ambitious climate policies (ie, limiting global average temperature rise to well below 2°C) and low-carbon energy transitions coupled with stringent clean-air policies are necessary to substantially reduce the human health effects from air pollution in China, regardless of socioeconomic assumptions. Our findings could help policy makers understand the crucial links between climate policy and public health., Funding: The National Natural Science Foundation of China., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Understanding potential health risks associated with biofuel production is critical to sustainably combating energy insecurity and climate change. However, the specific health impacts associated with biorefinery-related emissions are not yet well characterized. We evaluated the relationship between respiratory emergency department (ED) visits (2011-2015) and residential exposure to biorefineries by comparing 15 biorefinery sites to 15 control areas across New York (NY) State. We further examined these associations by biorefinery types (e.g., corn, wood, or soybean), seasons, and lower respiratory disease subtypes. We measured biorefinery exposure using residential proximity in a cross-sectional study and estimation of biorefinery emission via AERMOD-simulated modeling. After controlling for multiple confounders, we consistently found that respiratory ED visit rates among residents living within 10 km of biorefineries were significantly higher (rate ratios (RRs) range from 1.03 to 3.64) than those in control areas across our two types of exposure indices. This relationship held across biorefinery types (higher in corn and soybean biorefineries), seasons (higher in spring and winter), air pollutant types (highest for NO 2 ), and respiratory subtypes (highest for emphysema). Further research is needed to confirm our findings.

This study assesses the reductions in air pollution emissions and subsequent beneficial health effects from different global mitigation pathways consistent with the 2 °C stabilization objective of the Paris Agreement. We use an integrated modelling framework, demonstrating the need for models with an appropriate level of technology detail for an accurate co-benefit assessment. The framework combines an integrated assessment model (GCAM) with an air quality model (TM5-FASST) to obtain estimates of premature mortality and then assesses their economic cost. The results show that significant co-benefits can be found for a range of technological options, such as introducing a limitation on bioenergy, carbon capture and storage (CCS) or nuclear power. Cumulative premature mortality may be reduced by 17-23% by 2020-2050 compared to the baseline, depending on the scenarios. However, the ratio of health co-benefits to mitigation costs varies substantially, ranging from 1.45 when a bioenergy limitation is set to 2.19 when all technologies are available. As for regional disaggregation, some regions, such as India and China, obtain far greater co-benefits than others., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) from fuel combustion significantly contributes to global and US mortality. Traditional control strategies typically reduce emissions for specific air pollutants and sectors to maintain pollutant concentrations below standards. Here we directly set national PM 2.5 mortality cost reduction targets within a global human-earth system model with US state-level energy systems, in scenarios to 2050, to identify endogenously the control actions, sectors, and locations that most cost-effectively reduce PM 2.5 mortality. We show that substantial health benefits can be cost-effectively achieved by electrifying sources with high primary PM 2.5 emission intensities, including industrial coal, building biomass, and industrial liquids. More stringent PM 2.5 reduction targets expedite the phaseout of high emission intensity sources, leading to larger declines in major pollutant emissions, but very limited co-benefits in reducing CO 2 emissions. Control strategies limiting health damages achieve the greatest emission reductions in the East North Central and Middle Atlantic states.

A rapid and deep decarbonization of power supply worldwide is required to limit global warming to well below 2 °C. Beyond greenhouse gas emissions, the power sector is also responsible for numerous other environmental impacts. Here we combine scenarios from integrated assessment models with a forward-looking life-cycle assessment to explore how alternative technology choices in power sector decarbonization pathways compare in terms of non-climate environmental impacts at the system level. While all decarbonization pathways yield major environmental co-benefits, we find that the scale of co-benefits as well as profiles of adverse side-effects depend strongly on technology choice. Mitigation scenarios focusing on wind and solar power are more effective in reducing human health impacts compared to those with low renewable energy, while inducing a more pronounced shift away from fossil and toward mineral resource depletion. Conversely, non-climate ecosystem damages are highly uncertain but tend to increase, chiefly due to land requirements for bioenergy.

This paper presents a methodology for calculating exhaust emissions from on-road transport in cities with low-quality traffic data and outdated vehicle registries. The methodology consists of data collection approaches and emission calculation methods. For data collection, the paper suggests using video survey and parking lot survey methods developed for the International Vehicular Emissions model. Additional sources of information include data from the largest transportation companies, vehicle inspection stations, and official vehicle registries. The paper suggests using the European Computer Programme to Calculate Emissions from Road Transport (COPERT) 4 model to calculate emissions, especially in countries that implemented European emissions standards. If available, the local emission factors should be used instead of the default COPERT emission factors. The paper also suggests additional steps in the methodology to calculate emissions only from diesel vehicles. We applied this methodology to calculate black carbon emissions from diesel on-road vehicles in Murmansk, Russia. The results from Murmansk show that diesel vehicles emitted 11.7 tons of black carbon in 2014. The main factors determining the level of emissions are the structure of the vehicle fleet and the level of vehicle emission controls. Vehicles without controls emit about 55% of black carbon emissions., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)