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We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show large underestimates of Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical CO, while typically performing reasonably well elsewhere. The results suggest that year-round emissions, probably from fossil fuel burning in east Asia and seasonal biomass burning emissions in south-central Africa, are greatly underestimated in current inventories such as IIASA and EDGAR3.2. Variability among models is large, likely resulting primarily from intermodel differences in representations and emissions of nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and in hydrologic cycles, which affect OH and soluble hydrocarbon intermediates. Global mean projections of the 2030 CO response to emissions changes are quite robust. Global mean midtropospheric (500 hPa) CO increases by 12.6 ± 3.5 ppbv (16%) for the high-emissions (A2) scenario, by 1.7 ± 1.8 ppbv (2%) for the midrange (CLE) scenario, and decreases by 8.1 ± 2.3 ppbv (11%) for the low-emissions (MFR) scenario. Projected 2030 climate changes decrease global 500 hPa CO by 1.4 ± 1.4 ppbv. Local changes can be much larger. In response to climate change, substantial effects are seen in the tropics, but intermodel variability is quite large. The regional CO responses to emissions changes are robust across models, however. These range from decreases of 10–20 ppbv over much of the industrialized NH for the CLE scenario to CO increases worldwide and year-round under A2, with the largest changes over central Africa (20–30 ppbv), southern Brazil (20–35 ppbv) and south and east Asia (30–70 ppbv). The trajectory of future emissions thus has the potential to profoundly affect air quality over most of the world's populated areas.

Global multiconstituent concentration and emission fields obtained from the assimilation of the satellite retrievals of ozone, CO, NO2, HNO3, and SO2 from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2, Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere, Microwave Limb Sounder, and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)/OMI are used to understand the processes controlling air pollution during the Korea‐United States Air Quality (KORUS‐AQ) campaign. Estimated emissions in South Korea were 0.42 Tg N for NOx and 1.1 Tg CO for CO, which were 40% and 83% higher, respectively, than the a priori bottom‐up inventories, and increased mean ozone concentration by up to 7.5 ± 1.6 ppbv. The observed boundary layer ozone exceeded 90 ppbv over Seoul under stagnant phases, whereas it was approximately 60 ppbv during dynamical conditions given equivalent emissions. Chemical reanalysis showed that mean ozone concentration was persistently higher over Seoul (75.10 ± 7.6 ppbv) than the broader KORUS‐AQ domain (70.5 ± 9.2 ppbv) at 700 hPa. Large bias reductions (>75%) in the free tropospheric OH show that multiple‐species assimilation is critical for balanced tropospheric chemistry analysis and emissions. The assimilation performance was dependent on the particular phase. While the evaluation of data assimilation fields shows an improved agreement with aircraft measurements in ozone (to less than 5 ppbv biases), CO, NO2, SO2, PAN, and OH profiles, lower tropospheric ozone analysis error was largest at stagnant conditions, whereas the model errors were mostly removed by data assimilation under dynamic weather conditions. Assimilation of new AIRS/OMI ozone profiles allowed for additional error reductions, especially under dynamic weather conditions. Our results show the important balance of dynamics and emissions both on pollution and the chemical assimilation system performance. Plain Language Summary: Global multi‐constituent concentration and emission fields obtained from the assimilation of the satellite retrievals are used to understand the processes controlling air pollution during the Korea U.S.‐Air Quality (KORUS‐AQ) campaign. Our results show the important balance of dynamics and emissions both on pollution and the chemical assimilation system performance. Key Points: Multiconstituent data assimilation during KORUS‐AQ showed that emissions in South Korea were 0.42 Tg N for NOx and 1.1 Tg CO for COThese emissions were 40% and 83% higher, respectively, than the a priori bottom‐up inventories and increased ozone by up to 7.5 ± 1.6 ppbvMean ozone concentration was persistently higher over Seoul (75.1 ± 7.6 ppbv) than the broader KORUS‐AQ domain (70.5 ± 9.2 ppbv) at 700 hPa [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a global coupled chemistry-climate-land model (CESM) to assess the integrated effect of climate, emissions and land use changes on annual surface O3 and PM2.5 on the United States with a focus on National Parks (NPs) and wilderness areas, using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections. We show that, when stringent domestic emission controls are applied, air quality is predicted to improve across the US, except surface O3 over the western and central US under RCP8.5 conditions, where rising background ozone counteracts domestic emissions reductions. Under the RCP4.5, surface O3 is substantially reduced (about 5 ppb), with daily maximum 8 h averages below the primary US EPA NAAQS of 75 ppb (and even 65 ppb) in all the NPs. PM2.5 is significantly reduced in both scenarios (4 μg m-3; ~50%), with levels below the annual US EPA NAAQS of 12 μg m-3 across all the NPs; visibility is also improved (10-15 deciviews; >75 km in visibility range), although some parks over the western US (40-74% of total sites in the US) may not reach the 2050 target to restore visibility to natural conditions by 2064. We estimate that climate-driven increases in fire activity may dominate summertime PM2.5 over the western US, potentially offsetting the large PM2.5 reductions from domestic emission controls, and keeping visibility at present-day levels in many parks. Our study suggests that air quality in 2050 will be primarily controlled by anthropogenic emission patterns. However, climate and land use changes alone may lead to a substantial increase in surface O3 (2-3 ppb) with important consequences for O3 air quality and ecosystem degradation at the US NPs. Our study illustrates the need to consider the effects of changes in climate, vegetation, and fires in future air quality management and planning and emission policy making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluation of a regional air quality forecasting system for the Pacific Northwest was carried out using a suite of surface and satellite observations. Wildfire events for the 2007 and 2008 fire seasons were simulated using the Air Information Report for Public Access and Community Tracking v.3 (AIRPACT-3) framework utilizing the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Fire emissions were simulated using the BlueSky framework with fire locations determined by the Satellite Mapping Automated Reanalysis Tool for Fire Incident Reconciliation (SMART-FIRE). Plume rise was simulated using two different methods: the Fire Emission Production Simulator (FEPS) and the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model. Predicted plume top heights were compared to the Cloud-Aerosol LIDAR with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument aboard the Cloud Aerosol LIDAR and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite. Carbon monoxide predictions were compared to the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) instrument aboard the Aqua satellite. Horizontal distributions of column aerosol optical depth (AOD) were compared to retrievals by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard the Aqua satellite. Model tropospheric nitrogen dioxide distributions were compared to retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aboard the Aura satellite. Surface ozone and PM2.5 predictions were compared to surface observations. The AIRPACT-3 model captured the location and transport direction of fire events well, but sometimes missed the timing of fire events and overall underestimated the PM2.5 impact of wildfire events at surface monitor locations. During the 2007 (2008) fire period, the fractional biases (FBs) of AIRPACT-3 for various pollutant observations included: average 24 h PM2.5 FB = -33% (-27%); maximum daily average 8h ozone FB = -8% (+1%); AOD FB = -61% (-53%); total col-umn CO FB = --10% (-- 5%); and tropospheric column NO2 FB = -39% (-28%). The bias in total column CO is within the range of expected error. Fractional biases of AIRPACT-3 plume tops were found to be -46% when compared in terms of above mean sea level, but only -28% when compared in terms of above ground level, partly due to the under-estimation of AIRPACT-3 ground height in complex terrain that results from the 12 km grid-cell smoothing. We conclude that aerosol predictions were too low for locations greater than ~ 100-300 km downwind from wildfire sources and that model predictions are likely under-predicting secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production, due to a combination of very low volatile organic compound (VOC) emission factors used in the United States Forest Service Consume model, an incomplete speciation of VOC to SOA precursors in SMOKE, and under-prediction by the SOA parameterization within CMAQ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Results from a regional air quality forecast model, AIRPACT-3, were compared to AIRS carbon monoxide column densities for the spring of 2010 over the Pacific Northwest. AIRPACT-3 column densities showed high correlation (R>0.9) but were significantly biased (∼25%) with consistent under-predictions for spring months when there is significant transport from Asia. The AIRPACT-3 CO bias relative to AIRS was eliminated by incorporating dynamic boundary conditions derived from NCAR's MOZART forecasts with assimilated MOPITT carbon monoxide. Changes in ozonerelated boundary conditions derived from MOZART forecasts are also discussed and found to affect background levels by ± 10 ppb but not found to significantly affect peak ozone surface concentrations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article explores the evaluation and description of the global Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 4 for atmospheric chemistry in Community Earth System Model (CESM). It reports that the atmospheric chemistry is responsible for the distribution of non-carbon dioxide gases and aerosols which influence the climate and air quality. Details on topics including the offline meteorology, chemical mechanisms, and emissions are discussed.

The article presents a study which explores the Fire INventory from NCAR version 1.0 (FINNv1) which provides global estimates of trace gases and emissions from open burning of biomass. It is inferred that the global emission estimates of the FINNv1 have been developed for modeling atmospheric chemistry and air quality. Several compounds calculate in FINNv1 are highlighted which include carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and formaldehyde.

An extensive set of measurements was made in and around Mexico City as part of the MILAGRO (Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations) experiments in March 2006. Simulations with the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART- 4), a global chemical transport model, have been used to provide a regional context for these observations and assist in their interpretation. These MOZART-4 simulations reproduce the aircraft observations generally well, but some differences in the modeled volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from the observations result from incorrect VOC speciation assumed for the emission inventories. The different types of CO sources represented in the model have been "tagged" to quantify the contributions of regions outside Mexico, as well as the various emissions sectors within Mexico, to the regional air quality of Mexico. This analysis indicates open fires have some, but not a dominant, impact on the atmospheric composition in the region around Mexico City when averaged over the month. However, considerable variation in the fire contribution (2-15% of total CO) is seen during the month. The transport and photochemical aging of Mexico City emissions were studied using tags of CO emissions for each day, showing that typically the air downwind of Mexico City was a combination of many ages. Ozone production in MOZART-4 is shown to agree well with the net production rates from box model calculations constrained by the MILAGRO aircraft measurements. Ozone production efficiency derived from the ratio of Ox to NOz is higher in MOZART-4 than in the observations for moderately polluted air. OH reactivity determined from the MOZART-4 results shows the same increase in relative importance of oxygenated VOCs downwind of Mexico City as the reactivity inferred from the observations. The amount of ozone produced by emissions from Mexico City and surrounding areas has been quantified in the model by tracking NO emissions, showing little influence beyond Mexico's borders, and also relatively minor influence from fire emissions on the monthly average tropospheric ozone column. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations during the 2006 dry season of highly elevated concentrations of cyanides in the atmosphere above Mexico City (MC) and the surrounding plains demonstrate that biomass burning (BB) significantly impacted air quality in the region. We find that during the period of our measurements, fires contribute more than half of the organic aerosol mass and submicron aerosol scattering, and one third of the enhancement in benzene, reactive nitrogen, and carbon monoxide in the outflow from the plateau. The combination of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions will affect ozone chemistry in the MC outflow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropospheric ozone (O3) pollution is known to damage vegetation, reducing photosynthesis and stomatal conductance, resulting in modified plant transpiration to the atmosphere. We use an Earth system model to show that global transpiration response to near‐present‐day surface tropospheric ozone results in large‐scale global perturbations to net outgoing long‐wave and incoming shortwave radiation. Our results suggest that the radiative effect is dominated by a reduction in shortwave cloud forcing in polluted regions, in response to ozone‐induced reduction in land‐atmosphere moisture flux and atmospheric humidity. We simulate a statistically significant response of annual surface air temperature of up to ~ +1.5 K due to this ozone effect in vegetated regions subjected to ozone pollution. This mechanism is expected to further increase the net warming resulting from historic and future increases in tropospheric ozone. Plain Language Summary: Ozone is a pollutant near the Earth's surface, where it is harmful to health and vegetation. Ozone is formed by chemical reactions in the atmosphere driven by the action of sunlight on emissions from fossil fuel combustion and other sources. Ozone harms vegetation by entering leaves through small pores on leaves called stomata. These stomata are also the route by which gases such as water vapor and CO2 are naturally exchanged between plants and the atmosphere. Ozone damage to vegetation affects the efficiency with which gases pass through plant stomata, typically reducing both photosynthesis and stomatal conductance due to biochemical damage. This results in a change in the amount of water vapor that plants put into the atmosphere. In this study we use a computer model to estimate for the first time how this modification in plant water vapor source to the atmosphere changes climate. We show widespread surface warming and changes in clouds due to the impact of ozone on plants. This has important implications for policies aimed at limiting global and regional temperature increases in the presence of ozone pollution and provides evidence for an additional climate benefit to reducing ozone pollution. Key Points: We make the first estimate of global radiation balance and surface temperature response to vegetation damage by ozoneRadiative changes are dominated by atmospheric moisture and cloud response to ozone‐induced changes in plant transpirationOzone‐vegetation‐hydrology interactions should be considered in future climate scenarios and simulations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]