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We evaluate the performance of the Model of Urban Network of Intersecting Canyons and Highways (MUNICH) in simulating ozone (O3) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) concentrations within the urban street canyons in the São Paulo metropolitan area (SPMA). The MUNICH simulations are performed inside the Pinheiros neighborhood (a residential area) and Paulista Avenue (an economic hub), which are representative urban canyons in the SPMA. Both zones have air quality stations maintained by the São Paulo Environmental Agency (CETESB), providing data (both pollutant concentrations and meteorological) for model evaluation. Meteorological inputs for MUNICH are produced by a simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) over triple-nested domains with the innermost domain centered over the SPMA at a spatial grid resolution of 1 km. Street coordinates and emission flux rates are retrieved from the Vehicular Emission Inventory (VEIN) emission model, representing the real fleet of the region. The VEIN model has an advantage to spatially represent emissions and present compatibility with MUNICH. Building height is estimated from the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT) local climate zone map for SPMA. Background concentrations are obtained from the Ibirapuera air quality station located in an urban park. Finally, volatile organic compound (VOC) speciation is approximated using information from the São Paulo air quality forecast emission file and non-methane hydrocarbon concentration measurements. Results show an overprediction of O3 concentrations in both study cases. NOx concentrations are underpredicted in Pinheiros but are better simulated in Paulista Avenue. Compared to O3, NO2 is better simulated in both urban zones. The O3 prediction is highly dependent on the background concentration, which is the main cause for the model O3 overprediction. The MUNICH simulations satisfy the performance criteria when emissions are calibrated. The results show the great potential of MUNICH to represent the concentrations of pollutants emitted by the fleet close to the streets. The street-scale air pollutant predictions make it possible in the future to evaluate the impacts on public health due to human exposure to primary exhaust gas pollutants emitted by the vehicles.

Graphical abstract, Nowadays, many smart-phones and vehicles are equipped with Global Position System (GPS) for tracking and navigation purposes, providing an opportunity to derive highly representative local vehicular flow and estimate vehicular emissions information. Here, we report and discuss methods used to handle large volumes of such activity data, namely 124 million GPS recordings from the web page Maplink.com.br, extract high spatial resolution vehicular flow information for a vast area in South-east Brazil, and correct for bias using traffic counts observations for the same area. The method consists in filter speed and accelerations, assign buffers to the road network, aggregate speed by street, fill missing number of lanes, generate traffic flow. Methods presented here were used to inform traffic-related air quality modelling and used as part of local air pollution management activities but are also amenable to any work that would be enhanced by more locally representative or time-resolved inputs for traffic flow, e.g. traffic network management, and demand modelling. • 124 million GPS observations from electronic devices were used to generate traffic flow. • Spatial bias was investigated and accounted for using independent local traffic count data. • Traffic count rescaled GPS traffic flow provide a robust description of spatial and quantitative traffic patterns.

Since 2001, four emission measurement campaigns have been conducted in multiple traffic tunnels in the megacity of Sao Paulo, Brazil, an area with a fleet of more than 7 million vehicles running on fuels with high biofuel contents: gasoline + ethanol for light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and diesel + biodiesel for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs). Emission factors for LDVs and HDVs were calculated using a carbon balance method, the pollutants considered including nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), and sulfur dioxide, as well as carbon dioxide and ethanol. From 2001 to 2018, fleet-average emission factors for LDVs and HDVs, respectively, were found to decrease by 4.9 and 5.1% per year for CO and by 5.5 and 4.2% per year for NOx. These reductions demonstrate that regulations for vehicle emissions adopted in Brazil in the last 30 years improved air quality in the megacity of Sao Paulo significantly, albeit with a clear delay. These findings, especially those for CO, indicate that official emission inventories underestimate vehicle emissions. Here, we demonstrated that the adoption of emission factors calculated under real-world conditions can dramatically improve air quality modeling in the region.

We have evaluated the spread of SARS-CoV-2 through Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region by means of a correlation between climate and air pollution indicators, namely, average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, rainfall, average relative humidity, wind speed, and air pollution indicators PM10, PM2.5, and NO2 with the COVID-19 daily new cases and deaths. The study focuses in the following LAC cities: Mexico City (Mexico), Santo Domingo (Dominican Republic), San Juan (Puerto Rico), Bogotá (Colombia), Guayaquil (Ecuador), Manaus (Brazil), Lima (Perú), Santiago (Chile), São Paulo (Brazil) and Buenos Aires (Argentina). The results show that average temperature, minimum temperature, and air quality were significantly associated with the spread of COVID-19 in LAC. Additionally, humidity, wind speed and rainfall showed a significant relationship with daily cases, total cases and mortality for various cities. Income inequality and poverty levels were also considered as a variable for qualitative analysis. Our findings suggest that and income inequality and poverty levels in the cities analyzed were related to the spread of COVID-19 positive and negative, respectively. These results might help decision-makers to design future strategies to tackle the spread of COVID-19 in LAC and around the world., Graphical abstract Image 1, Highlights • The study analyzes the impact of climate and pollution indicators on COVID-19 pandemic in Latin America and the Caribbean. • The low wind speed generates less ventilation, then a higher concentration of pollutants or air contaminated with the SARS-CoV-2 virus can be inhaled in various cities of Latin America and the Caribbean. • The climate and pollution indicators are one of the factors that triggered the spread of Covid-19 through Latin America and the Caribbean. • The COVID-19 spread is significantly correlated with PM10, PM2.5 and NO2 in several cities of Latin America and the Caribbean. • The income inequality and poverty levels of the cities analyzed in Latin America and the Caribbean are related to the spread of COVID-19.

Social distancing policies put in place during COVID-19 epidemic in addition to helping to limit the spread of the disease also contributed to improving urban air quality. Here we show a decrease in air pollutant concentration as a consequence of mobility reduction in São Paulo during the containment measure which began on 22nd March 2020. When comparing to foregoing weeks to equivalent periods of 2019, the concentration of most air pollutants sharply decreased in the first days of mobility restriction, to then increase again after government officials downplayed the threat of the disease. This trend is also followed by a decrease in hospital admissions by SARS-influenza. Therefore, despite the great economic and social unrest caused by the pandemic, this unique situation shows that large-scale mobility reduction policy had a significant impact on air quality, benefiting, directly and indirectly, the public health system.

Air pollution is associated to poor urban mobility conditions, as in the megacity of São Paulo. Three scenarios of policies of driving restrictions were simulated using the WRF/Chem model, to assess the impacts on ozone pollution and the consequences for environmental justice: urban toll, sustainable transition, and vehicle free zone. Results show that the urban toll leads to a decrease of 20 µg.m-3 in maximum 8-hour ozone averages and the prevention of six hours of exceedances of the air quality standard. Sustainable transition was the most promising scenario, with a decrease of 50 µg.m-3 and avoiding 22 hours of exceedances. The vehicle free zone did not show any advantages. For the implementation of adequate public transport systems, massive investments are required, in order to achieve better air quality with the greatest environmental justice possible, aiming towards the protection of human health along with a more democratic access to the urban spaces. Resumo A poluição atmosférica pode ser agravada devido à precárias condições de mobilidade urbana, como ocorre em São Paulo. Visando avaliar os impactos na poluição por ozônio e as consequências para a justiça ambiental, 3 cenários de políticas de restrição veicular foram simulados com o modelo WRF/Chem: pedágio urbano, transição sustentável e centro sem veículos. Os resultados indicaram que o pedágio urbano levou a uma redução de 20 µg.m-3 nas médias das máximas de 8 horas, e evitou seis ultrapassagens do padrão de qualidade do ar. A transição sustentável teve máximas até 50 µg.m-3 mais baixas e evitou 22 ultrapassagens. O centro sem veículos não demonstrou vantagens. Para a implementação de um sistema de transporte público adequado, são necessários expressivos investimentos para se atingir melhorias na qualidade do ar com a maior justiça ambiental possível, buscando a proteção da saúde da população juntamente à democratização do acesso aos espaços urbanos. Resumen La contaminación atmosférica puede agravarse debido à la movilidad urbana ineficiente, como en São Paulo. Visando avaliar los impactos em la contaminación por ozono y las consecuencias para la justicia ambiental, se simularan 3 escenarios de restricción vehicular con en el modelo WRF/Chem: peaje urbano, transición sustentable y centro sin vehículos. Los resultados indicaron que el peaje urbano condujo a una reducción de 20 µg.m-3 en las concentraciones medias máximas de 8 horas, y evito 6 excedencias de las normas de calidad del aire. La transición sustentable tuvo un máximo de hasta 50 µg.m-3 más bajo e 22 excedencias evitadas. El centro sin vehículos no presento ventajas. Para la implementación de un transporte público adecuado, se necesitan inversiones significativas para lograr mejoras en la calidad del aire con la mayor justicia ambiental posible, buscando proteger la salud de la población junto con la democratización del acceso a los espacios urbanos.

In this paper, we analyze the variability of the ozone concentration over São Paulo Macrometropolis, as well the factors, whichdetermined the tendency observed in the last two decades. Time series of hourly ozone concentrations measured at 16 automatedstations from an air quality network from 1996 to 2017 were analyzed. The temporal variability of ozone concentrations exhibitswell-defined daily and seasonal patterns. Ozone presents a significant positive correlation between the number of cases (thresh-olds of 100–160μgm−3) and the fuel sales of gasohol and diesel. The ozone concentrations do not exhibit significant long-termtrends, but some sites present positive trends that occurs in sites in the proximity of busy roads and negative trends that occurs insites located in residential areas or next to trees. The effect of atmospheric process of transport and ozone formation was analyzedusing a quantile regression model (QRM). This statistical model can deal with the nonlinearities that appear in the relationship ofozone and other variables and is applicable to time series with non-normal distribution. The resulting model explains 0.76% ofthe ozone concentration variability (with global coefficient of determinationR1= 0.76) providing a better representation than anordinary least square regression model (with coefficient of determinationR2= 0.52); the effect of radiation and temperature arethe most critical in determining the highest ozone quantiles

Vehicles are one of the most significant sources of air pollutant emissions in urban areas, and their real contribution always needs to be updated to predict impacts on air quality. Radar databases and traffic counts using statistical modeling is an alternative and low-cost approach to produce traffic activities data in each urban street to be used as input to predict vehicular emissions. In this work, we carried out a spatial statistical analysis of local radar data and calculated traffic flow using local radar data combined with different statistical models. Future scenarios about vehicle emission inventory to define public policies were also proposed and analyzed for Belo Horizonte (BH), a Brazilian State capital, with the third-largest metropolitan region in the country. The Normal-Neighborhood Model (i.e., the mixed effect model with random effect in the neighborhood, radar type, and in the regional area) was used to calculate traffic flow in each urban street. Results showed average reductions in CO (4.5%), NMHC (3.0%), NOx (3.0%) and PM2.5 (6.2%) emissions even with an increase in fleet composition (25% in average). The decrease is a result of the implementation of emission control programs by the government, improvements vehicles technologies, and the quality of fuels. Prediction of traffic data from radar databases has proven to be useful for avoiding the high costs of performing origin-destination surveys and traffic modeling using commercial software. Radar databases can provide many potential benefits for research and analysis in environmental and transportation planning. These findings can be incorporated in future investigations to implement public policies on vehicular emission reduction in urban areas and to advance environmental health effects research and human health risk assessment.

Vehicular emissions are one of the most important source of pollution in urban centers, impacting air quality with a deleterious effect on human health and ecosystems. Air quality managers rely on emissions inventories to characterize pollution and sources. In this study we predicted vehicular emissions, using three sources of traffic data: 1) travel demand model outputs consisting of traffic simulations of light-duty vehicles, trucks, 2) and urban buses, and 3) a massive data set of real-time GPS coordinates of light-duty vehicles and trucks. The study area comprises the metropolitan areas of Sao Paulo, Santos, Vale de Paraiba, Sorocaba, and Campinas, which have a population of more than 30 million inhabitant. Once we generated hourly traffic flows, we used the Vehicular Emissions INventory Model (VEIN) to predict fuel consumption and emissions. Emissions using travel demand model for the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo are CO 177406 t/y, NO X 73554 t/y, NMHC 33999 t/y and PM 2.5 2281 t/y. The emissions using GPS data were higher than using travel demand outputs, because GPS average speeds were lower, producing higher emission factors.

Emission inventories are the quantification of pollutants from different sources. They provide important information not only for climate and weather studies but also for urban planning and environmental health protection. We developed an open-source model (called Vehicular Emissions Inventory – VEIN v0.2.2) that provides high-resolution vehicular emissions inventories for different fields of studies. We focused on vehicular sources at street and hourly levels due to the current lack of information about these sources, mainly in developing countries.The type of emissions covered by VEIN are exhaust (hot and cold) and evaporative considering the deterioration of the factors. VEIN also performs speciation and incorporates functions to generate and spatially allocate emissions databases. It allows users to load their own emission factors, but it also provides emission factors from the road transport model (Copert), the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Brazilian databases. The VEIN model reads, distributes by age of use and extrapolates hourly traffic data, and it estimates emissions hourly and spatially. Based on our knowledge, VEIN is the first bottom–up vehicle emissions software that allows input to the WRF-Chem model. Therefore, the VEIN model provides an important, easy and fast way of elaborating or analyzing vehicular emissions inventories under different scenarios. The VEIN results can be used as an input for atmospheric models, health studies, air quality standardizations and decision making.

Ozone events in South America might be triggered by increasing air temperatures and dry conditions, leading to vulnerable population exposure. The current air quality standards and attention levels in S&atilde, o Paulo state, Brazil, are 40% higher and 25% higher, respectively, than the limits recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). We simulated an extreme ozone event in the S&atilde, o Paulo megacity using the Weather Research and Forecast/Chemistry model during an extreme event characterized by positive anomalies of air temperature and solar radiation. Results were evaluated using the different air quality limits from S&atilde, o Paulo state and the WHO, also with socioeconomic vulnerability data from the Brazilian census and cost analysis for the public health system from the extreme episode. More than 3 million people in vulnerability conditions, such as low income and families with an above-average percentage of children, live in areas where ozone concentrations exceeded the attention levels of the WHO during the episode, which is ignored by the lenient SP state environmental laws. WHO air quality guidelines must be adopted urgently in developing nations in order to provide a more accurate basis for cost analysis and population exposure, particularly the for vulnerable population groups.