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Objective: To investigate whether baseline CSF biomarkers are associated with hippocampal atrophy rate as a measure of disease progression in patients with Alzheimer disease (AD), patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and controls, controlling for baseline neuropsychological and MRI findings.Methods: We assessed data from 31 patients with AD, 25 patients with MCI, and 19 controls (mean age 68 +/- 8 years; 39 [52%] female) who visited our memory clinic and had received serial MRI scanning (scan interval 1.7 +/- 0.7 years). At baseline, CSF biomarkers (amyloid beta 1-42, tau, and tau phosphorylated at threonine 181 [p-tau]) were obtained, as well as neuropsychological data. Baseline MRI scans were assessed using visual rating scales for medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA), global cortical atrophy, and white matter hyperintensities. Hippocampal atrophy rates were estimated using regional nonlinear "fluid" registration of follow-up scan to baseline scan.Results: Stepwise multiple linear regression, adjusted for age and sex, showed that increased CSF p-tau levels (beta [standard error]: - 0.79 [0.35]) at baseline was independently associated with higher subsequent hippocampal atrophy rates (p < 0.05), together with poorer memory performance (0.09 [0.04]) and more severe MTA (- 0.60 [0.21]). The association of memory function with hippocampal atrophy rate was explained by the link with diagnosis, because it disappeared from the model after we additionally corrected for diagnosis.Conclusions: Baseline CSF levels of tau phosphorylated at threonine 181 are independently associated with subsequent disease progression, as reflected by hippocampal atrophy rate. This effect is independent of baseline neuropsychological and MRI predictors. Our results imply that predicting disease progression can best be achieved by combining information from different modalities. Neurology (R) 2009;73:935-940

To investigate the added value of hippocampal atrophy rates over whole brain volume measurements on MRI in patients with Alzheimer disease (AD), patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and controls.We included 64 patients with AD (67 +/- 9 years; F/M 38/26), 44 patients with MCI (71 +/- 6 years; 21/23), and 34 controls (67 +/- 9 years; 16/18). Two MR scans were performed (scan interval: 1.8 +/- 0.7 years; 1.0 T), using a coronal three-dimensional T1-weighted gradient echo sequence. At follow-up, 3 controls and 23 patients with MCI had progressed to AD. Hippocampi were manually delineated at baseline. Hippocampal atrophy rates were calculated using regional, nonlinear fluid registration. Whole brain baseline volumes and atrophy rates were determined using automated segmentation and registration tools.All MRI measures differed between groups (p0.005). For the distinction of MCI from controls, larger effect sizes of hippocampal measures were found compared to whole brain measures. Between MCI and AD, only whole brain atrophy rate differed significantly. Cox proportional hazards models (variables dichotomized by median) showed that within all patients without dementia, hippocampal baseline volume (hazard ratio [HR]: 5.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.5-22.2]), hippocampal atrophy rate (5.2 [1.9-14.3]), and whole brain atrophy rate (2.8 [1.1-7.2]) independently predicted progression to AD; the combination of low hippocampal volume and high atrophy rate yielded a HR of 61.1 (6.1-606.8). Within patients with MCI, only hippocampal baseline volume and atrophy rate predicted progression.Hippocampal measures, especially hippocampal atrophy rate, best discriminate mild cognitive impairment (MCI) from controls. Whole brain atrophy rate discriminates Alzheimer disease (AD) from MCI. Regional measures of hippocampal atrophy are the strongest predictors of progression to AD.