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Identifying the drivers of population fluctuations in spatially distinct populations remains a significant challenge for ecologists. Whereas regional climatic factors may generate population synchrony (i.e. the Moran effect), local factors including the level of density dependence may reduce the level of synchrony. Although divergences in the scaling of population synchrony and spatial environmental variation have been observed, the regulatory factors that underlie such mismatches are poorly understood.Few previous studies have investigated how density‐dependent processes and population‐specific responses to weather variation influence spatial synchrony at both local and regional scales. We addressed this issue in a pond‐breeding amphibian, the great crested newt Triturus cristatus. We used capture–recapture data collected through long‐term surveys in five T. cristatus populations in Western Europe.In all populations—and subpopulations within metapopulations—population size, annual survival and recruitment fluctuated over time. Likewise, there was considerable variation in these demographic rates between populations and within metapopulations. These fluctuations and variations appear to be context‐dependent and more related to site‐specific characteristics than local or regional climatic drivers. We found a low level of demographic synchrony at both local and regional levels. Weather has weak and spatially variable effects on survival, recruitment and population growth rate. In contrast, density dependence was a common phenomenon (at least for population growth) in almost all populations and subpopulations.Our findings support the idea that the Moran effect is low in species where the population dynamics more closely depends on local factors (e.g. population density and habitat characteristics) than on large‐scale environmental fluctuation (e.g. regional climatic variation). Such responses may have far‐reaching consequences for the long‐term viability of spatially structured populations and their ability to respond to large‐scale climatic anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing evidence that anthropogenic landscapes can strongly influence the evolution of dispersal, particularly through fragmentation, and may drive organisms into an evolutionary trap by suppressing dispersal. However, the influence on dispersal evolution of anthropogenic variation in habitat patch turnover has so far been largely overlooked. In this study, we examined how human‐driven variation in patch persistence affects dispersal rates and distances, determines dispersal‐related phenotypic specialization, and drives neutral genetic structure in spatially structured populations. We addressed this issue in an amphibian, Bombina variegata, using an integrative approach combining capture–recapture modeling, demographic simulation, common garden experiments, and population genetics. B. variegata reproduces in small ponds that occur either in habitat patches that are persistent (i.e., several decades or more), located in riverine environments with negligible human activity, or in patches that are highly temporary (i.e., a few years), created by logging operations in intensively harvested woodland. Our capture–recapture models revealed that natal and breeding dispersal rates and distances were drastically higher in spatially structured populations (SSPs) in logging environments than in riverine SSPs. Population simulations additionally showed that dispersal costs and benefits drive the fate of logging SSPs, which cannot persist without dispersal. The common garden experiments revealed that toadlets reared in laboratory conditions have morphological and behavioral specialization that depends on their habitat of origin. Toadlets from logging SSPs were found to have higher boldness and exploration propensity than those from riverine SSPs, indicating transgenerationally transmitted dispersal syndromes. We also found contrasting patterns of neutral genetic diversity and gene flow in riverine and logging SSPs, with genetic diversity and effective population size considerably higher in logging than in riverine SSPs. In parallel, intrapatch inbreeding and relatedness levels were lower in logging SSPs. Controlling for the effect of genetic drift and landscape connectivity, gene flow was found to be higher in logging than in riverine SSPs. Taken together, these results indicate that anthropogenic variation in habitat patch turnover may have an effect at least as important as landscape fragmentation on dispersal evolution and the long‐term viability and genetic structure of wild populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the mechanisms that regulate the dynamics of spatially structured populations (SSP) is a critical challenge for ecologists and conservation managers. Internal population processes such as births and deaths occur at a local level, while external processes such as dispersal take place at an inter‐population level. At both levels, density dependence is expected to play a critical role. At a patch scale, demographic traits (e.g., survival, breeding success) and the population growth rate can be influenced by density either negatively (e.g., competition effect) or positively (e.g., Allee effects). At the scale of an SSP, although positive density‐dependent dispersal has been widely reported, an increasing number of studies have highlighted negative density‐dependent dispersal.While many studies have investigated the effects of density on population growth or on dispersal, few have simultaneously examined density‐dependent effects at the scale of both the local population and the entire SSP. In this study, we examine how density is related to demographic processes at both the pond level (survival and population growth) and the SSP level (between‐pond dispersal) in a pond‐breeding amphibian, the great crested newt (Triturus cristatus). The study was based on 20 years of individual capture–recapture (CR) data (from 1996 to 2015) gathered from an SSP made up of 12 experimental ponds ("patches").We first used a CR multievent model to estimate both survival and dispersal rates in specific ponds as a function of distance between ponds. Then, using a second CR multievent model, we examined whether survival and recapture rates were influenced by population density in a pond. Lastly, we used state‐space time series models to investigate whether density affected population growth in each pond.Our results found a positive density‐dependent effect on survival and a negative density‐dependent effect on departure. In addition, the findings indicate that population growth was negatively related to density in all 12 ponds.These results support the hypothesis that in SSPs, density may have multiple and contrasting effects on demographic parameters and growth rates within local populations as well as on dispersal. This study underlines the need to better understand how density dependence may influence potential trade‐offs between life‐history strategies and life‐history stages. This paper is the first measure of density effects in a large spatially structured population of an amphibian. The relationship between density and both survival and emigration leads to local crowding effects. However, a negative relationship with local population growth rate suggests regulatory processes probably due to competition among larvae. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dispersal (i.e. movement from a natal or breeding site to another breeding site) is a central process in ecology and evolution as it affects the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured populations. Dispersal evolution is regulated by the balance between costs and benefits, which is influenced by the individual phenotype (i.e. phenotype‐dependent dispersal) and environmental factors (i.e. condition‐dependent dispersal). Even though these processes have been extensively studied in species with simple life cycles, our knowledge about these mechanisms in organisms displaying complex life cycles remains fragmentary. In fact, little is specifically known about how the interplay between individual and environmental factors may lead to alternative dispersal strategies that, in turn, lead to the coexistence of contrasted site fidelity phenotypes. In this paper, we examined breeding dispersal in a pond‐breeding amphibian, the great crested newt Triturus cristatus, within usual walking distances for a newt. We took advantage of recent developments in multi‐event capture–recapture models and used capture–recapture data (946 newts marked) collected in a spatially structured population occupying a large pond network (73 ponds). We showed a high rate of breeding site infidelity (i.e. pond use) and the coexistence of two dispersal phenotypes, namely, a highly pond faithful phenotype and a dispersing phenotype. Individuals that were site faithful at time t – 1 were therefore more likely to remain site faithful at time t. Our results also demonstrated that the probability that individuals belong to one or the other dispersal phenotypes depended on environmental and individual factors. In particular, we highlighted the existence of a dispersal syndrome implying a covariation pattern among dispersal behavior, body size, and survival. Our work opens new research prospects in the evolution of dispersal in organisms displaying complex life cycles and raises interesting questions about the evolutionary pathways that contribute to the diversification of movement strategies in the wild. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The environment of most species is heterogeneous at different spatial and temporal scales; this heterogeneity can have a direct effect on various components of fitness. As a consequence, individual space-use and movement strategies are central issues in ecology and conservation and receive considerable attention from researchers., In the last 30 years, this issue has led to the development of capture-recapture models that allow movement between sites to be quantified, while handling imperfect detection. For studies involving numerous recapture sites in which the emphasis is on dispersal or migration rather than movement between particular sites, Lagrange et al. recently proposed a parsimonious CR multi-event model that contrasts individuals that move and individuals that stay in place, irrespective of the sites involved., In this study, we developed a generalized version of this model to allow survival probability and movement probability to differ for different types of habitat to which the individual sites may be assigned. We investigated the potential of this new parameterization by studying the movements of an amphibian, the yellow-bellied toad ( Bombina variegata), in a set of breeding and resting/foraging ponds., Our capture-recapture multi-event model provides a highly flexible tool allowing users to model movements within and between several habitats. This approach can be potentially used to study movement behaviour and space-use strategies of a wide range of taxa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dispersal is a central component of life history evolution. An increasing number of studies suggest that spatiotemporally variable environments may promote the evolution of 'dispersal syndromes,' consisting of covariation patterns between dispersal and morphological, physiological, behavioral, and life history traits. At the interspecific scale, the 'colonizer syndrome' appears to be one of the most frequently recorded associations between dispersal and life history traits, linking a high dispersal rate, high fecundity, and a short lifespan as systematically combined adaptations in spatiotemporally varying environments. However, few studies have highlighted the existence of a 'colonizer syndrome' at the intraspecific scale, and none have investigated how different degrees of habitat stochasticity might shape covariation patterns between dispersal and life history traits. In this study, we examined this issue in free-ranging metapopulations of the yellow-bellied toad ( Bombina variegata) using capture-recapture data. Combining the results of this study with another recent study, we found that a high dispersal rate, high fecundity, and a short lifespan are associated in metapopulations experiencing unpredictable environments. In contrast, a very low dispersal rate (close to zero), low fecundity and a long lifespan are associated in metapopulations occupying predictable environments. We discuss these results as well as their demographic and evolutionary consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weather fluctuations have been demonstrated to affect demographic traits in many species. In long-lived organisms, their impact on adult survival might be buffered by the evolution of traits that reduce variation in interannual adult survival. For example, skipping breeding is an effective behavioral mechanism that may limit yearly variation in adult survival when harsh weather conditions occur; however, this in turn would likely lead to strong variation in recruitment. Yet, only a few studies to date have examined the impact of weather variation on survival, recruitment and breeding probability simultaneously in different populations of the same species. To fill this gap, we studied the impact of spring temperatures and spring rainfall on survival, on reproductive skipping behavior and on recruitment in five populations of a long-lived amphibian, the yellow-bellied toad (Bombina variegata). Based on capture-recapture data, our findings demonstrate that survival depends on interactions between age, population and weather variation. Varying weather conditions in the spring result in strong variation in the survival of immature toads, whereas they have little effect on adult toads. Breeding probability depends on both the individual's previous reproductive status and on the weather conditions during the current breeding season, leading to high interannual variation in recruitment. Crucially, we found that the impact of weather variation on demographic traits is largely context dependent and may thus differ sharply between populations. Our results suggest that studies predicting the impact of climate change on population dynamics should be taken with caution when the relationship between climate and demographic traits is established using only one population or few populations. We therefore highly recommend further research that includes surveys replicated in a substantial number of populations to account for context-dependent variation in demographic processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global biodiversity in freshwater and the oceans is declining at high rates. Reliable tools for assessing and monitoring aquatic biodiversity, especially for rare and secretive species, are important for efficient and timely management. Recent advances in DNA sequencing have provided a new tool for species detection from DNA present in the environment. In this study, we tested whether an environmental DNA ( eDNA) metabarcoding approach, using water samples, can be used for addressing significant questions in ecology and conservation. Two key aquatic vertebrate groups were targeted: amphibians and bony fish. The reliability of this method was cautiously validated in silico, in vitro and in situ. When compared with traditional surveys or historical data, eDNA metabarcoding showed a much better detection probability overall. For amphibians, the detection probability with eDNA metabarcoding was 0.97 ( CI = 0.90-0.99) vs. 0.58 ( CI = 0.50-0.63) for traditional surveys. For fish, in 89% of the studied sites, the number of taxa detected using the eDNA metabarcoding approach was higher or identical to the number detected using traditional methods. We argue that the proposed DNA-based approach has the potential to become the next-generation tool for ecological studies and standardized biodiversity monitoring in a wide range of aquatic ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Relocations are increasingly popular among wildlife managers despite often low rates of relocation success in vertebrates. In this context, understanding the influence of extrinsic (e.g., relocation design, habitat characteristics) and intrinsic factors (e.g., age and sex) on demographic parameters, such as survival, that regulate the dynamics of relocated populations is critical to improve relocation protocols and better predict relocation success. We investigated survival in naturally established and relocated populations of yellow‐bellied toads (Bombina variegata), an amphibian that was nearly extinct in Belgium by the late 1980s. We quantified survival at three ontogenetic stages (juvenile, subadult, and adult) in the relocated population, the source population, and a control population. In the relocated population, we quantified survival in captive bred individuals and their locally born descendants. Then, using simulations, we examined how survival cost to relocation affects the self‐sustainability of the relocated population. We showed that survival at juvenile and subadult stages was relatively similar in all populations. In contrast, relocated adult survival was lower than adult survival in the source and control populations. Despite this, offspring of relocated animals (the next generation, regardless of life stage) survived at similar rates to individuals in the source and control populations. Simulations revealed that the relocated population was self‐sustaining under different scenarios and that the fate (e.g., stability or increase) of the simulated populations was highly dependent on the fecundity of relocated adults and their offspring. To summarize, our results indicate that survival in relocated individuals is lower than in non‐relocated individuals but that this cost (i.e., reduced survival) disappears in the second generation. A finer understanding of how relocation affects demographic processes is an important step in improving relocation success of amphibians and other animals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]