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A stochastic risk model was developed to estimate the time elapsed before overcrowding (TOC) or feed interruption (TFI) emerged on the swine premises under movement restrictions during a classical swine fever (CSF) outbreak in Indiana, USA. Nursery (19 to 65 days of age) and grow-to-finish (40 to 165 days of age) pork production operations were modelled separately. Overcrowding was defined as the total weight of pigs on premises exceeding 100% to 115% of the maximum capacity of the premises, which was computed as the total weight of the pigs at harvest/transition age. Algorithms were developed to estimate age-specific weight of the pigs on premises and to compare the daily total weight of the pigs with the threshold weight defining overcrowding to flag the time when the total weight exceeded the threshold (i.e. when overcrowding occurred). To estimate TFI, an algorithm was constructed to model a swine producer's decision to discontinue feed supply by incorporating the assumptions that a longer estimated epidemic duration, a longer time interval between the age of pigs at the onset of the outbreak and the harvest/transition age, or a longer progression of an ongoing outbreak would increase the probability of a producer's decision to discontinue the feed supply. Adverse animal welfare conditions were modelled to emerge shortly after an interruption of feed supply. Simulations were run with 100 000 iterations each for a 365-day period. Overcrowding occurred in all simulated iterations, and feed interruption occurred in 30% of the iterations. The median (5th and 95th percentiles) TOC was 24 days (10, 43) in nursery operations and 78 days (26, 134) in grow-to-finish operations. Most feed interruptions, if they emerged, occurred within 15 days of an outbreak. The median (5th and 95th percentiles) time at which either overcrowding or feed interruption emerged was 19 days (4, 42) in nursery and 57 days (4, 130) in grow-to-finish operations. The study findings suggest that overcrowding and feed interruption could emerge early during a CSF outbreak among swine premises under movement restrictions. The outputs derived from the risk model could be used to estimate and evaluate associated mitigation strategies for alleviating adverse animal welfare conditions resulting from movement restrictions.

To address escalating concerns about livestock animal care and welfare it is necessary to better understand the factors that may predispose people to develop such concerns. It has been hypothesized that experiences with, beliefs about, and emotional connections to animals may influence level of perceived obligation toward and therefore concern for animals. However, the extent to which people's classifications of animals and their status as pet owners may impact their views on food animal care and welfare practices remains unclear. An online survey of 798 U.S. households was therefore conducted in June 2012 to understand differences in consumer sentiment towards various animal species, classification of certain species (as pet, livestock or neither), and variations in food animal welfare concerns between dog and/or cat owners and those who do not own such species. Sixty-six percent of households in the survey owned at least 1 animal. Forty-eight percent owned dogs, 41% owned cats, 3% owned horses, and 10% owned other animals. As expected, dogs and cats were classified by most respondents (90%) as pets. Most respondents similarly categorized rabbits (58%) and horses (55%) as pets, although consensus was not found for horses with 27% classifying them as livestock animals and 18% as neither pets nor livestock. Over 80% of respondents classified beef cows, dairy cows, pigs, chickens, and turkeys as livestock. The majority of survey respondents were opposed to eating cats and dogs followed closely by horses due to ethical and/or spiritual reasons. Dog and/or cat owners more often reported having a source for animal welfare information (68%) than those who did not own these species (49%). Additionally, dog and/or cat owners were more concerned about food animal welfare for both domestically raised food animals and those raised outside the United States (dog and/or cat owners mean level of concern was 3.88 for domestic animal welfare and 5.16 for those raised outside the United States compared with non-dog or -cat owners with means of 4.46 and 5.46, respectively). Although a causal relationship cannot be established, pet ownership and increased concern for food animal welfare appear to be correlated. These data suggest that increased interest in protecting food animals may stem from interactions with and emotional connections to pets, especially when combined with other factors such as having a source for animal welfare information, education level, age, and gender.