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Climate and environmental conditions are determinant for coral distribution and their very existence. When changes in such conditions occur, their effects on distribution can be predicted through species distribution models, anticipating suitable habitats for the subsistence of species. Mussismilia harttii is one of the most endangered Brazilian endemic reef-building corals, and in increasing risk of extinction. Herein, species distribution models were used to determine the present and future potential habitats for M. harttii. Estimations were made through the maximum entropy approach, predicting suitable habitat losses and gains by the end of the 21st century. For this purpose, species records published in the last 20 years and current and future environmental variables were correlated. The best models were chosen according to the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and evaluated through the partial ROC (AUCratio), a new approach which uses independent occurrence data. Both approaches showed that the models performed satisfactorily in predicting potential habitat areas for the species. Future projections were made using the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios for 2100, with different levels of greenhouse gas emission. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used to model the Future Potential Habitat (FPH) of M. harttii in two different scenarios: stabilization of emissions (RCP 4.5) and increase of emissions (RCP 8.5). According to the results, shallow waters to the south of the study area concentrate most of the current potential habitats for the species. However, in future scenarios, there was a loss of suitable areas in relation to the Current Potential Habitat (RCP 4.5 46% and RCP 8.5 59%), whereas there is a southward shift of the suitable areas. In all scenarios of FPH, the temperature was the variable with the greatest contribution to the models (> 35%), followed by the current velocity (> 33%) and bathymetry (>29%). In contrast, there is an increase of deep (50-75 m) suitable areas FPH scenarios, mainly in the southern portion of its distribution, at Abrolhos Bank (off Espirito Santo State). These deeper sites might serve as refugia for the species in global warming scenarios. Coral communities at such depths would be less susceptible to impacts of climate change on temperature and salinity. However, the deep sea is not free from human impacts and measures to protect deeper ecosystems should be prioritized in environmental policies for Brazilian marine conservation, especially the Abrolhos Bank, due to its importance for M. harttii., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Current knowledge about the Brazilian deep-water octocoral fauna remains scarce, fragmented, and mostly based on unpublished, regional scale surveys. The present work provides the first comprehensive study of the family Chrysogorgidae Verrill, 1883 in Brazil, based on morphological analysis of specimens collected in the last decade and those currently placed in museums. Members of this family are common mainly at great depths and remarkable for the iridescent aspect of their colonies. In Brazil, to the present, only four species were reported: Chrysogorgia elegans (Verrill, 1883), Chrysogorgia multiflora Deichmann, 1936, Stephanogorgia rattoi Castro, Medeiros & Loiola, 2010 and Trichogorgia brasiliensis Castro, Medeiros & Loiola, 2010-the last two are shallow-water species. In this study, three new deep-water species are described, Chrysogorgia tuberculata, Chrysogorgia upsilonia and Radicipes kopelatos, and a new record to Brazil is reported, Chrysogorgia fewkesii Verrill, 1883, as well as latitudinal expansions in distributions of Chrysogorgia elegans and Chrysogorgia multiflora are presented.