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Ecological forecasts are becoming increasingly valuable tools for conservation and management. However, there are few examples of near-real-time forecasting systems that account for the wide range of ecological complexities. We developed a new coral disease ecological forecasting system that explores a suite of ecological relationships and their uncertainty and investigates how forecast skill changes with shorter lead times. The Multi-Factor Coral Disease Risk product introduced here uses a combination of ecological and marine environmental conditions to predict the risk of white syndromes and growth anomalies across reefs in the central and western Pacific and along the east coast of Australia and is available through the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coral Reef Watch program. This product produces weekly forecasts for a moving window of 6 months at a resolution of ~5 km based on quantile regression forests. The forecasts show superior skill at predicting disease risk on withheld survey data from 2012 to 2020 compared with predecessor forecast systems, with the biggest improvements shown for predicting disease risk at mid- to high-disease levels. Most of the prediction uncertainty arises from model uncertainty, so prediction accuracy and precision do not improve substantially with shorter lead times. This result arises because many predictor variables cannot be accurately forecasted, which is a common challenge across ecosystems. Weekly forecasts and scenarios can be explored through an online decision support tool and data explorer, co-developed with end-user groups to improve use and understanding of ecological forecasts. The models provide near-real-time disease risk assessments and allow users to refine predictions and assess intervention scenarios. This work advances the field of ecological forecasting with real-world complexities and, in doing so, better supports near-term decision making for coral reef ecosystem managers and stakeholders. Secondarily, we identify clear needs and provide recommendations to further enhance our ability to forecast coral disease risk., (© 2024 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

Sewage pollution from on-site sewage disposal systems and injection wells is impacting coral reefs worldwide. Our study documented the presence and impact of sewage on South Kohala's coral reefs, on Hawai'i Island, through benthic water quality and macroalgal sampling (fecal indicator bacteria, nutrients, δ 15 N macroalgal tissue), NO 3 - stable isotope mixing models, water motion measurements, and coral reef surveys. Sewage pollution was moderate on the offshore reef from benthic seeps, and water motion mixed and diluted it across the benthos. These conditions likely contribute to the dominance of turf algae cover, and the severity and prevalence of growth anomalies and algal overgrowth on corals. Use of multiple indicators and studying water motion was necessary to assess sewage pollution and identify environmental drivers associated with impaired coral health conditions. Methods used in this study can be utilized by natural resource managers to identify and reduce anthropogenic stressors to coral reefs., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The Hawaiian Archipelago experienced a moderate bleaching event in 2019-the third major bleaching event over a 6-year period to impact the islands. In response, the Hawai'i Coral Bleaching Collaborative (HCBC) conducted 2,177 coral bleaching surveys across the Hawaiian Archipelago. The HCBC was established to coordinate bleaching monitoring efforts across the state between academic institutions, non-governmental organizations, and governmental agencies to facilitate data sharing and provide management recommendations. In 2019, the goals of this unique partnership were to: 1) assess the spatial and temporal patterns of thermal stress; 2) examine taxa-level patterns in bleaching susceptibility; 3) quantify spatial variation in bleaching extent; 4) compare 2019 patterns to those of prior bleaching events; 5) identify predictors of bleaching in 2019; and 6) explore site-specific management strategies to mitigate future bleaching events. Both acute thermal stress and bleaching in 2019 were less severe overall compared to the last major marine heatwave events in 2014 and 2015. Bleaching observed was highly site- and taxon-specific, driven by the susceptibility of remaining coral assemblages whose structure was likely shaped by previous bleaching and subsequent mortality. A suite of environmental and anthropogenic predictors was significantly correlated with observed bleaching in 2019. Acute environmental stressors, such as temperature and surface light, were equally important as previous conditions (e.g. historical thermal stress and historical bleaching) in accounting for variation in bleaching during the 2019 event. We found little evidence for acclimation by reefs to thermal stress in the main Hawaiian Islands. Moreover, our findings illustrate how detrimental effects of local anthropogenic stressors, such as tourism and urban run-off, may be exacerbated under high thermal stress. In light of the forecasted increase in severity and frequency of bleaching events, future mitigation of both local and global stressors is a high priority for the future of corals in Hawai'i., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

As disease spreads through living coral, it can induce changes in the distribution of coral's naturally fluorescent pigments, making fluorescence a potentially powerful non-invasive intrinsic marker of coral disease. Here, we show the usefulness of live-imaging laser scanning confocal microscopy to investigate coral health state. We demonstrate that the Hawaiian coral Montipora capitata consistently emits cyan and red fluorescence across a depth gradient in reef habitats, but the micro-scale spatial distribution of those pigments differ between healthy coral and coral affected by a tissue loss disease. Naturally diseased and laboratory infected coral systematically exhibited fragmented fluorescent pigments adjacent to the disease front as indicated by several measures of landscape structure (e.g., number of patches) relative to healthy coral. Histology results supported these findings. Pigment fragmentation indicates a disruption in coral tissue that likely impedes translocation of energy within a colony. The area of fragmented fluorescent pigments in diseased coral extended 3.03 mm ± 1.80 mm adjacent to the disease front, indicating pathogenesis was highly localized rather than systemic. Our study demonstrates that coral fluorescence can be used as a proxy for coral health state, and, such patterns may help refine hypotheses about modes of pathogenesis.

2014 marked the sixth and most widespread mass bleaching event reported in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, home to the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument (PMNM), the world's second largest marine reserve. This event was associated with an unusual basin-scale warming in the North Pacific Ocean, with an unprecedented peak intensity of around 20°C-weeks of cumulative heat stress at Lisianksi Island. In situ bleaching surveys and satellite data were used to evaluate the relative importance of potential drivers of bleaching patterns in 2014, assess the subsequent morality and its effects on coral communities and 3D complexity, test for signs of regional acclimation, and investigate long-term change in heat stress in PMNM. Surveys conducted at four island/atoll (French Frigate Shoals, Lisianski Island, Pearl and Hermes Atoll, and Midway Atoll) showed that in 2014, percent bleaching varied considerably between islands/atolls and habitats (back reef/fore reef and depth), and was up to 91% in shallow habitats at Lisianski. The percent bleaching during the 2014 event was best explained by a combination of duration of heat stress measured by Coral Reef Watch's satellite Degree Heating Week, relative community susceptibility (bleaching susceptibility score of each taxon * the taxon's abundance relative to the total number of colonies), depth and region. Mean coral cover at permanent Lisianski monitoring sites decreased by 68% due to severe losses of Montipora dilatata complex, resulting in rapid reductions in habitat complexity. Spatial distribution of the 2014 bleaching was significantly different from the 2002 and 2004 bleaching events likely due to a combination of differences in heat stress and local acclimatization. Historical satellite data demonstrated heat stress in 2014 was unlike any previous event and that the exposure of corals to the bleaching-level heat stress has increased significantly in the northern PMNM since 1982, highlighting the increasing threat of climate change to reefs.

One prominent hypothesis regarding climate change and scleractinian corals is that thermal stress compromises immune competence. To test this hypothesis we tracked how the immune defenses of bleached, apparently healthy and yellow band disease (YBD) diseased Montastraea faveolata colonies varied with natural thermal stress in southwestern Puerto Rico. Colonies were monitored for 21 mo from the peak of the bleaching event in October 2005 to August 2007. Since sea surface temperature was significantly higher in summer and fall 2005 than 2006, year of collection was used as a proxy for temperature stress, and colony fragments collected in 2005 were compared with those collected in 2006. Mortality rate was high (43% overall) and all colonies (except one) either died or became infected with YBD by August 2007. YBD-infected tissue did not bleach (i.e. expel zooxanthellae) during the 2005 bleaching event, even when healthy tissue of these colonies bleached. Immune activity was assayed by measuring prophenoloxidase (PPO), peroxidase (POX), lysozyme-like (LYS) and antibacterial (AB) activity. Immune activity was variable between all coral samples, but there was a significant elevation of PPO activity in bleached colonies collected in 2005 relative to apparently healthy and YBD-diseased corals in 2006. In YBD-diseased colonies, LYS and AB activity were elevated in both healthy and infected tissue, indicating a systemic response; activity levels in these colonies were higher compared to those that appeared healthy. In both these immune parameters, there was a trend for suppression of activity in corals that were bleached in 2005. These data, while complicated by between-genet variability, illustrate the complex interaction between disease and temperature stress on immune function.