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Without drastic efforts to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate globalized stressors, tropical coral reefs are in jeopardy. Strategic conservation and management requires identification of the environmental and socioeconomic factors driving the persistence of scleractinian coral assemblages-the foundation species of coral reef ecosystems. Here, we compiled coral abundance data from 2,584 Indo-Pacific reefs to evaluate the influence of 21 climate, social and environmental drivers on the ecology of reef coral assemblages. Higher abundances of framework-building corals were typically associated with: weaker thermal disturbances and longer intervals for potential recovery; slower human population growth; reduced access by human settlements and markets; and less nearby agriculture. We therefore propose a framework of three management strategies (protect, recover or transform) by considering: (1) if reefs were above or below a proposed threshold of >10% cover of the coral taxa important for structural complexity and carbonate production; and (2) reef exposure to severe thermal stress during the 2014-2017 global coral bleaching event. Our findings can guide urgent management efforts for coral reefs, by identifying key threats across multiple scales and strategic policy priorities that might sustain a network of functioning reefs in the Indo-Pacific to avoid ecosystem collapse.

This study provides a descriptive analysis of the North Male, Maldives seven years after the 1998 bleaching disturbance to determine the state of the coral community composition, the recruitment community, evidence for recovery, and adaptation to thermal stress. Overall, hard coral cover recovered at a rate commonly reported in the literature but with high spatial variability and shifts in taxonomic composition. Massive Porites, Pavona, Synarea, and Goniopora were unusually common in both the recruit and adult communities. Coral recruitment was low and some coral taxa, namely Tubipora, Seriatopora, and Stylophora, were rarer than expected. A study of the bleaching response to a thermal anomaly in 2005 indicated that some taxa, including Leptoria, Platygyra, Favites, Fungia, Hydnophora, and Galaxea astreata, bleached as predicted while others, including Acropora, Pocillopora, branching Porites, Montipora, Stylophora, and Alveopora, bleached less than predicted. This indicates variable-adaptation potentials among the taxa and considerable potential for ecological reorganization of the coral community., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to exceed 500 parts per million and global temperatures to rise by at least 2 degrees C by 2050 to 2100, values that significantly exceed those of at least the past 420,000 years during which most extant marine organisms evolved. Under conditions expected in the 21st century, global warming and ocean acidification will compromise carbonate accretion, with corals becoming increasingly rare on reef systems. The result will be less diverse reef communities and carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained. Climate change also exacerbates local stresses from declining water quality and overexploitation of key species, driving reefs increasingly toward the tipping point for functional collapse. This review presents future scenarios for coral reefs that predict increasingly serious consequences for reef-associated fisheries, tourism, coastal protection, and people. As the International Year of the Reef 2008 begins, scaled-up management intervention and decisive action on global emissions are required if the loss of coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided.