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Climate change is impacting coral reefs now. Recent pan-tropical bleaching events driven by unprecedented global heat waves have shifted the playing field for coral reef management and policy. While best-practice conventional management remains essential, it may no longer be enough to sustain coral reefs under continued climate change. Nor will climate change mitigation be sufficient on its own. Committed warming and projected reef decline means solutions must involve a portfolio of mitigation, best-practice conventional management and coordinated restoration and adaptation measures involving new and perhaps radical interventions, including local and regional cooling and shading, assisted coral evolution, assisted gene flow, and measures to support and enhance coral recruitment. We propose that proactive research and development to expand the reef management toolbox fast but safely, combined with expedient trialling of promising interventions is now urgently needed, whatever emissions trajectory the world follows. We discuss the challenges and opportunities of embracing new interventions in a race against time, including their risks and uncertainties. Ultimately, solutions to the climate challenge for coral reefs will require consideration of what society wants, what can be achieved technically and economically, and what opportunities we have for action in a rapidly closing window. Finding solutions that work for coral reefs and people will require exceptional levels of coordination of science, management and policy, and open engagement with society. It will also require compromise, because reefs will change under climate change despite our best interventions. We argue that being clear about society's priorities, and understanding both the opportunities and risks that come with an expanded toolset, can help us make the most of a challenging situation. We offer a conceptual model to help reef managers frame decision problems and objectives, and to guide effective strategy choices in the face of complexity and uncertainty., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Coral reefs are facing unprecedented pressure on local and global scales. Sensitive and rapid markers for ecosystem stress are urgently needed to underpin effective management and restoration strategies. Although the fundamental contribution of microbes to the stability and functioning of coral reefs is widely recognised, it remains unclear how different reef microbiomes respond to environmental perturbations and whether microbiomes are sensitive enough to predict environmental anomalies that can lead to ecosystem stress. However, the lack of coral reef microbial baselines hinders our ability to study the link between shifts in microbiomes and ecosystem stress. In this study, we established a comprehensive microbial reference database for selected Great Barrier Reef sites to assess the diagnostic value of multiple free-living and host-associated reef microbiomes to infer the environmental state of coral reef ecosystems., Results: A comprehensive microbial reference database, originating from multiple coral reef microbiomes (i.e. seawater, sediment, corals, sponges and macroalgae), was generated by 16S rRNA gene sequencing for 381 samples collected over the course of 16 months. By coupling this database to environmental parameters, we showed that the seawater microbiome has the greatest diagnostic value to infer shifts in the surrounding reef environment. In fact, 56% of the observed compositional variation in the microbiome was explained by environmental parameters, and temporal successions in the seawater microbiome were characterised by uniform community assembly patterns. Host-associated microbiomes, in contrast, were five-times less responsive to the environment and their community assembly patterns were generally less uniform. By applying a suite of indicator value and machine learning approaches, we further showed that seawater microbial community data provide an accurate prediction of temperature and eutrophication state (i.e. chlorophyll concentration and turbidity)., Conclusion: Our results reveal that free-living microbial communities have a high potential to infer environmental parameters due to their environmental sensitivity and predictability. This highlights the diagnostic value of microorganisms and illustrates how long-term coral reef monitoring initiatives could be enhanced by incorporating assessments of microbial communities in seawater. We therefore recommend timely integration of microbial sampling into current coral reef monitoring initiatives.

Recovery of coral reefs after disturbance relies heavily on replenishment through successful larval settlement and their subsequent survival. As part of an integrated study to determine the potential effects of water quality changes on the resilience of inshore coral communities, scleractinian coral settlement was monitored between 2006 and 2012 at 12 reefs within the inshore Great Barrier Reef. Settlement patterns were only analysed for the family Acroporidae, which represented the majority (84%) of settled larvae. Settlement of Acroporidae to terracotta tiles averaged 0.11 cm-2, representing 34 ± 31.01 (mean ± SD) spat per tile, indicating an abundant supply of competent larvae to the study reefs. Settlement was highly variable among reefs and between years. Differences in settlement among locations partly corresponded to the local cover of adult Acroporidae, while substantial reductions in Acroporidae cover caused by tropical cyclones and floods resulted in a clear reduction in settlement. Much of the observed variability remained unexplained, although likely included variability in both connectivity to, and the fecundity of, adult Acroporidae. The responsiveness of settlement patterns to the decline in Acroporidae cover across all four regions indicates the importance of supply and connectivity, and the vulnerability towards region-wide disturbance. High spatial and temporal variability, in addition to the resource-intensive nature of sampling with settlement tiles, highlights the logistical difficulty of determining coral settlement over large spatial and temporal scales., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

In recent decades, coral reef ecosystems have declined to the extent that reefs are now threatened globally. While many water quality parameters have been proposed to contribute to reef declines, little evidence exists conclusively linking specific water quality parameters with increased disease prevalence in situ. Here we report evidence from in situ coral health surveys confirming that chronic exposure to dredging-associated sediment plumes significantly increase the prevalence of white syndromes, a devastating group of globally important coral diseases. Coral health surveys were conducted along a dredging-associated sediment plume gradient to assess the relationship between sedimentation, turbidity and coral health. Reefs exposed to the highest number of days under the sediment plume (296 to 347 days) had two-fold higher levels of disease, largely driven by a 2.5-fold increase in white syndromes, and a six-fold increase in other signs of compromised coral health relative to reefs with little or no plume exposure (0 to 9 days). Multivariate modeling and ordination incorporating sediment exposure level, coral community composition and cover, predation and multiple thermal stress indices provided further confirmation that sediment plume exposure level was the main driver of elevated disease and other compromised coral health indicators. This study provides the first evidence linking dredging-associated sedimentation and turbidity with elevated coral disease prevalence in situ. Our results may help to explain observed increases in global coral disease prevalence in recent decades and suggest that minimizing sedimentation and turbidity associated with coastal development will provide an important management tool for controlling coral disease epizootics.

Background: Declining water quality coupled with the effects of climate change are rapidly increasing coral diseases on reefs worldwide, although links between coral diseases and environmental parameters remain poorly understood. This is the first study to document a correlation between coral disease and water quality on an inshore reef., Methodology/principal Findings: The temporal dynamics of the coral disease atramentous necrosis (AN) was investigated over two years within inshore populations of Montipora aequituberculata in the central Great Barrier Reef, in relation to rainfall, salinity, temperature, water column chlorophyll a, suspended solids, sedimentation, dissolved organic carbon, and particulate nitrogen, phosphorus and organic carbon. Overall, mean AN prevalence was 10-fold greater during summer wet seasons than winter dry seasons. A 2.5-fold greater mean disease abundance was detected during the summer of 2009 (44 ± SE 6.7 diseased colonies per 25 m(2)), when rainfall was 1.6-fold greater than in the summer of 2008. Two water quality parameters explained 67% of the variance in monthly disease prevalence in a Partial Least Squares regression analysis; disease abundance was negatively correlated with salinity (R2 = -0.6) but positively correlated with water column particulate organic carbon concentration (R2 = 0.32). Seasonal temperature patterns were also positively correlated with disease abundance, but explained only a small portion of the variance., Conclusions/significance: The results suggest that rainfall and associated runoff may facilitate seasonal disease outbreaks, potentially by reducing host fitness or by increasing pathogen virulence due to higher availability of nutrients and organic matter. In the future, rainfall and seawater temperatures are likely to increase due to climate change which may lead to decreased health of inshore reefs.

Disturbed coral reefs are often dominated by dense mat- or canopy-forming assemblages of macroalgae. This study investigated how such dense macroalgal assemblages change the chemical and physical microenvironment for understorey corals, and how the altered environmental conditions affect the physiological performance of corals. Field measurements were conducted on macroalgal-dominated inshore reefs in the Great Barrier Reef in quadrats with macroalgal biomass ranging from 235 to 1029 g DW m(-2) dry weight. Underneath mat-forming assemblages, the mean concentration of dissolved oxygen was reduced by 26% and irradiance by 96% compared with conditions above the mat, while concentrations of dissolved organic carbon and soluble reactive phosphorous increased by 26% and 267%, respectively. The difference was significant but less pronounced under canopy-forming assemblages. Dissolved oxygen declined and dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity increased with increasing algal biomass underneath mat-forming but not under canopy-forming assemblages. The responses of corals to conditions similar to those found underneath algal assemblages were investigated in an aquarium experiment. Coral nubbins of the species Acropora millepora showed reduced photosynthetic yields and increased RNA/DNA ratios when exposed to conditions simulating those underneath assemblages (pre-incubating seawater with macroalgae, and shading). The magnitude of these stress responses increased with increasing proportion of pre-incubated algal water. Our study shows that mat-forming and, to a lesser extent, canopy-forming macroalgal assemblages alter the physical and chemical microenvironment sufficiently to directly and detrimentally affect the metabolism of corals, potentially impeding reef recovery from algal to coral-dominated states after disturbance. Macroalgal dominance on coral reefs therefore simultaneously represents a consequence and cause of coral reef degradation.