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Decisions about when to start or switch a therapy often depend on the frequency with which individuals are monitored or tested. For example, the optimal time to switch antiretroviral therapy depends on the frequency with which HIV-positive individuals have HIV RNA measured. This paper describes an approach to use observational data for the comparison of joint monitoring and treatment strategies and applies the method to a clinically relevant question in HIV research: when can monitoring frequency be decreased and when should individuals switch from a first-line treatment regimen to a new regimen? We outline the target trial that would compare the dynamic strategies of interest and then describe how to emulate it using data from HIV-positive individuals included in the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems. When, as in our example, few individuals follow the dynamic strategies of interest over long periods of follow-up, we describe how to leverage an additional assumption: no direct effect of monitoring on the outcome of interest. We compare our results with and without the "no direct effect" assumption. We found little differences on survival and AIDS-free survival between strategies where monitoring frequency was decreased at a CD4 threshold of 350 cells/μl compared with 500 cells/μl and where treatment was switched at an HIV-RNA threshold of 1000 copies/ml compared with 200 copies/ml. The "no direct effect" assumption resulted in efficiency improvements for the risk difference estimates ranging from an 7- to 53-fold increase in the effective sample size., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Reducing racial/ethnic disparities in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease is a high priority. Reductions in HIV racial/ethnic disparities can potentially be achieved by intervening on important intermediate factors. The potential population impact of intervening on intermediates can be evaluated using observational data when certain conditions are met. However, using standard stratification-based approaches commonly employed in the observational HIV literature to estimate the potential population impact in this setting may yield results that do not accurately estimate quantities of interest. Here we describe a useful conceptual and methodological framework for using observational data to appropriately evaluate the impact on HIV racial/ethnic disparities of interventions. This framework reframes relevant scientific questions in terms of a controlled direct effect and estimates a corresponding proportion eliminated. We review methods and conditions sufficient for accurate estimation within the proposed framework. We use the framework to analyze data on 2,329 participants in the CFAR [Centers for AIDS Research] Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (2008-2014) to evaluate the potential impact of universal prescription of and ≥95% adherence to antiretroviral therapy on racial disparities in HIV virological suppression. We encourage the use of the described framework to appropriately evaluate the potential impact of targeted interventions in addressing HIV racial/ethnic disparities using observational data., (© The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: When a clinical treatment fails or shows suboptimal results, the question of when to switch to another treatment arises. Treatment switching strategies are often dynamic because the time of switching depends on the evolution of an individual's time-varying covariates. Dynamic strategies can be directly compared in randomized trials. For example, HIV-infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy could be randomized to switching therapy within 90 days of HIV-1 RNA crossing above a threshold of either 400 copies/ml (tight-control strategy) or 1000 copies/ml (loose-control strategy)., Methods: We review an approach to emulate a randomized trial of dynamic switching strategies using observational data from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration, the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems and the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration. We estimated the comparative effect of tight-control vs. loose-control strategies on death and AIDS or death via inverse-probability weighting., Results: Of 43 803 individuals who initiated an eligible antiretroviral therapy regimen in 2002 or later, 2001 met the baseline inclusion criteria for the mortality analysis and 1641 for the AIDS or death analysis. There were 21 deaths and 33 AIDS or death events in the tight-control group, and 28 deaths and 41 AIDS or death events in the loose-control group. Compared with tight control, the adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for loose control were 1.10 (0.73, 1.66) for death, and 1.04 (0.86, 1.27) for AIDS or death., Conclusions: Although our effective sample sizes were small and our estimates imprecise, the described methodological approach can serve as an example for future analyses., (© The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association)

Objective: To illustrate an approach to compare CD4 cell count and HIV-RNA monitoring strategies in HIV-positive individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART)., Design: Prospective studies of HIV-positive individuals in Europe and the USA in the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and The Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems., Methods: Antiretroviral-naive individuals who initiated ART and became virologically suppressed within 12 months were followed from the date of suppression. We compared 3 CD4 cell count and HIV-RNA monitoring strategies: once every (1) 3 ± 1 months, (2) 6 ± 1 months, and (3) 9-12 ± 1 months. We used inverse-probability weighted models to compare these strategies with respect to clinical, immunologic, and virologic outcomes., Results: In 39,029 eligible individuals, there were 265 deaths and 690 AIDS-defining illnesses or deaths. Compared with the 3-month strategy, the mortality hazard ratios (95% CIs) were 0.86 (0.42 to 1.78) for the 6 months and 0.82 (0.46 to 1.47) for the 9-12 month strategy. The respective 18-month risk ratios (95% CIs) of virologic failure (RNA >200) were 0.74 (0.46 to 1.19) and 2.35 (1.56 to 3.54) and 18-month mean CD4 differences (95% CIs) were -5.3 (-18.6 to 7.9) and -31.7 (-52.0 to -11.3). The estimates for the 2-year risk of AIDS-defining illness or death were similar across strategies., Conclusions: Our findings suggest that monitoring frequency of virologically suppressed individuals can be decreased from every 3 months to every 6, 9, or 12 months with respect to clinical outcomes. Because effects of different monitoring strategies could take years to materialize, longer follow-up is needed to fully evaluate this question.

Background: Marginal structural models are an important tool for observational studies. These models typically assume that variables are measured without error. We describe a method to account for differential and nondifferential measurement error in a marginal structural model., Methods: We illustrate the method estimating the joint effects of antiretroviral therapy initiation and current smoking on all-cause mortality in a United States cohort of 12,290 patients with HIV followed for up to 5 years between 1998 and 2011. Smoking status was likely measured with error, but a subset of 3,686 patients who reported smoking status on separate questionnaires composed an internal validation subgroup. We compared a standard joint marginal structural model fit using inverse probability weights to a model that also accounted for misclassification of smoking status using multiple imputation., Results: In the standard analysis, current smoking was not associated with increased risk of mortality. After accounting for misclassification, current smoking without therapy was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.2 [95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.6, 2.3]). The HR for current smoking and therapy [0.4 (95% CI = 0.2, 0.7)] was similar to the HR for no smoking and therapy (0.4; 95% CI = 0.2, 0.6)., Conclusions: Multiple imputation can be used to account for measurement error in concert with methods for causal inference to strengthen results from observational studies.

Background: Contemporary data on patterns of antiretroviral therapy (ART) use in the United States are needed to inform efforts to improve the HIV care cascade., Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study of patients in the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems cohort who were in HIV care in 2010 to assess ART use and outcomes, stratified by nadir CD4 count (≤350, 351-500, or >500 cells/mm), demographics, psychiatric diagnoses, substance use, and engagement in continuous care (≥2 visits ≥3 months apart in 2010)., Results: Of 8633 patients at 7 sites who had ≥1 medical visit and ≥1 viral load in 2010, 94% had ever initiated ART, 89% were on ART, and 70% had an undetectable viral load at the end of 2010. Fifty percent of ART-naive patients had nadir CD4 counts >500 cells per cubic millimeter, but this group comprised just 3% of the total population. Among patients who were ART naive at the time of cohort entry (N = 4637), both ART initiation and viral suppression were strongly associated with nadir CD4 count. Comparing 2009 and 2010, the percentages of patients with viral suppression among those with nadir CD4 counts 351-500 and >500 cells per cubic millimeter were 44% vs. 57% and 25% vs. 33%, respectively. Engagement in care was the only factor consistently associated with ART use and viral suppression across nadir CD4 count strata., Conclusions: Our findings suggest that ART use and viral suppression among persons in HIV care may be more common than estimated in some previous studies and increased from 2009 to 2010.

Adherence to antiretroviral therapy is critical for treatment success. Antiretroviral therapy typically requires multiple pills at multiple dosing times. To address this, we tested the feasibility, utility, and efficacy of a customizable reminder system using pagers, which were programmed using web-based technology, to increase and maintain proper adherence in patients with pre-existing adherence problems. After a two-week monitoring period with an electronic pill-cap, participants with less than 90% adherence were randomized to continue monitoring or to receive a pager. The group who received the pagers had greater improvements in adherence from baseline to Week 2 and Week 12 than those who monitored their medications only. However, adherence in both groups at the outcome assessments points was still poor. While the provision of a reminder system helped improve adherence, it is likely that more intensive interventions are required for patients with pre-existing problems.

Context: While interleukin 2 (IL-2) is capable of inducing a marked expansion of the CD4 T-lymphocyte pool, limited data exist on whether IL-2 treatment can add significantly to the immunologic and virologic effects of potent antiretroviral therapy (ART)., Objective: To determine the rate and magnitude of CD4 cell recovery and viral suppression when using a combination therapy of IL-2 and ART compared with ART alone., Design and Setting: Randomized, controlled multicenter trial conducted from April 1996 through April 1998 at 8 clinical sites in the United States., Patients: Eighty-two adult outpatients who were infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and had baseline CD4 cell counts of 200 x 10(6)/L to 500 x 10(6)/L and baseline RNA levels of fewer than 10,000 copies/mL were randomized; 78 completed the study., Interventions: Thirty-nine patients were randomly assigned to receive a combination therapy of subcutaneous IL-2 (administered in 5-day courses every 8 weeks at a starting dosage of 7.5 mIU twice per day) and ART; 43 were to receive ART therapy alone., Main Outcome Measures: Interleukin 2 safety and differential effects on CD4 cell counts, CD4 cell percentages, and plasma HIV RNA levels., Results: The mean (SD) percentage increase in CD4 cell counts at 1 year for patients who received IL-2 was 112% (113%) compared with 18% (35%) in recipients of ART alone (P<.001). Both groups had mean (SD) increases in CD4 cell percentage: from 20.4% (6.3%) to 32.3% (12.4%) for the combination therapy group compared with 20.4% (5.1%) to 23.0% (7.2%) for recipients of ART alone (P<.001). Using a sensitive viral RNA assay, mean viral load changes were -0.28 and 0.09 log(10) copies for IL-2 recipients and control patients, respectively (P=.03). Twenty (67%) of 30 evaluable patients receiving IL-2 achieved final viral loads of fewer than 50 copies/mL compared with 13 (36%) of 36 control patients (P=.02). Toxic effects were common among patients who received IL-2 and were managed with antipyretics, hydration, rest, and dosage reduction as needed., Conclusions: Intermittent therapy with IL-2 and ART produced a substantially greater increase in CD4 cells and was associated with a larger decrease in viral load than ART alone. Clinical end-point trials will be necessary to determine whether the enhanced viral suppression and CD4 cell increases associated with IL-2 therapy will translate into improved clinical outcomes. JAMA. 2000;284:183-189

CD4 lymphocyte regenerative capacity was evaluated by use of an ex vivo outgrowth assay in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1-infected subjects enrolled in a clinical trial (Merck 039). CD4 lymphocytes were selectively expanded in vitro by T cell receptor triggering, which also induces HIV production from latently infected cells. CD4 cell expansion and lack of virus production in cultures correlated well with clinical responses and were best in those receiving an aggressive antiretroviral three-drug regimen. Twelve clinical responders receiving triple-drug therapy monitored for 60 weeks had both excellent ex vivo CD4 cell expansion and lack of HIV replication, often in the absence of added drug in culture. Breakthrough viruses recovered from drug-containing arms of the cultures showed phenotypic resistance to the drugs used in vivo. This CD4 lymphocyte outgrowth assay correlates well with clinical outcome in subjects receiving potent antiretroviral regimens and may predict the emergence of early drug resistance.