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Background: Guidelines for treatment of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection consider lamivudine and emtricitabine to be interchangeable components in first-line combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The evidence for their clinical equivalence in cART is inconsistent. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the virological responses to lamivudine and emtricitabine in recommended cART., Methods: This was an observational study using data from the AIDS Therapy Evaluation in the Netherlands (ATHENA) nationwide HIV cohort. The virological responses to lamivudine and emtricitabine were compared by multivariable adjusted logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models. Sensitivity analyses included propensity score-adjusted models., Results: Therapy-naive HIV-1-infected patients without baseline resistance (N = 4740) initiated lamivudine or emtricitabine with efavirenz/tenofovir or nevirapine/tenofovir. The use of lamivudine was associated with more virological failure at week 48 compared to emtricitabine with efavirenz/tenofovir (10.8% vs 3.6%; adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11-2.84) and nevirapine/tenofovir (27% vs 11%; AOR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.25-3.52) in on-treatment analysis. Propensity score-adjusted models and intent-to-treat sensitivity analyses gave comparable results. The adjusted hazard ratio of virological failure at week 240 using lamivudine instead of emtricitabine was 2.35 (95% CI, 1.61-3.42) with efavirenz and 2.01 (95% CI, 1.36-2.98) with nevirapine. The inclusion of lamivudine or emtricitabine in cART did not influence the time to virological suppression within 48 weeks or the probability of virological rebound after successful virological suppression., Conclusions: The use of emtricitabine instead of lamivudine as part of cART was associated with better virological responses. These findings are relevant for settings with extensive use of lamivudine and for settings where generic lamivudine will be available., (© The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

We estimated the impact of loss to follow-up (LTFU) on the mortality rate among HIV-1-infected patients in Curaçao. A total of 214 therapy-naive HIV-1-infected patients aged 15 years or older upon entering into HIV care between January 2005 and July 2009 were included. Persons who discontinued follow-up for more than 365 days were defined as LTFU and traced with the aim of registering their vital status. If no personal contact could be made, data were matched with the Curaçao National Death Registry. Mortality rates were estimated before and after starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). We used log-rank tests to compare survival rates among patients LTFU and patients who experienced continuous follow-up. Pre-cART mortality in patients LTFU was similar to pre-cART mortality in those with continuous follow-up (p=0.79). All pre-cART deaths occurred within 6 months after entry. Low CD4 cell count was predictive of a shorter time to death after entry. Adjusting for those who were LTFU, the mortality rate after starting cART increased from 4.3 to 5.5 per 100 person years of observation (p=0.06). Mortality after starting cART was highest in the first 2 months after starting cART, especially for those who had late disease stage. Mortality rates were lower in patients with continuous follow-up compared to LTFUs (p<0.001). Mortality rates in HIV-1-infected patients who have started cART in Curaçao are underestimated as a result of inefficient patient administration combined with people starting cART at a very late disease stage. Monitoring HIV treatment could help in reducing the risk of LTFU and may improve the effect of treatment.

Objective: We investigated the risk of AIDS and serious non-AIDS-defining diseases (non-ADDs) according to the degree of immunological recovery after 2 years of virological successful antiretroviral therapy (HAART)., Design: Retrospective observational cohort study including HIV-infected patients treated with HAART resulting in viral suppression (<500 copies/ml)., Methods: Patients were grouped according to their CD4 cell count after 2 years of HAART: CD4 cell count less than 200 cells/μl (group A), 200-350 cells/μl (group B), 351-500 cells/μl (group C) or more than 500 cells/μl (group D). Analysis was done to assess predictors for poor immunological recovery and the occurrence of a composite endpoint [death, AIDS, malignancies, liver cirrhosis and cardiovascular events (CVEs)], non-ADDs, CVEs and non-AIDS-defining malignancies (non-ADMs)., Results: Three thousand and sixty-eight patients were included. Older age, lower CD4 cell nadir and lower plasma HIV-RNA at the start of HAART were independent predictors for a poor immunological recovery. The composite endpoint, non-ADDs and CVE were observed most frequently in group A (overall log rank, P < 0.0001, P = 0.002 and P = 0.01). In adjusted analyses, age was a strong independent predictor for all endpoints. Compared with group A, patients in group D had a lower risk for the composite endpoint [hazard ratio 0.54 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.33-0.87]; patients in group B had a lower risk for CVEs [hazard ratio 0.34 (95% CI 0.14-0.86)]., Conclusion: Poor immunological recovery despite virological successful HAART is associated with a higher risk for overall morbidity and mortality and CVEs in particular. This study underlines the importance of starting HAART at higher CD4 cell counts, particularly in older patients.

Background: We assessed whether quadruple or triple-class therapy for the initial treatment of HIV-1 infection provides a virological benefit over standard triple therapy in patients with very high plasma viraemia. The assessment was made based on a national observational HIV cohort in the Netherlands., Methods: Inclusion criteria were age ≥18 years, treatment-naive, plasma viral load (pVL) ≥500,000 copies/ml and initiation of quadruple or triple therapy between 2001 and 2011. Time to viral suppression, defined as pVL<50 copies/ml, was compared between the two groups using Kaplan-Meier plots and multivariate Cox regression analysis., Results: A total of 675 patients were included: 125 (19%) initiated quadruple and 550 (81%) triple therapy. Median pVL was 5.9 (IQR 5.8-6.1) log(10) copies/ml in both groups (P=0.49). 22 (18%) patients on quadruple and 63 (12%) on triple therapy interrupted the treatment regimen because of drug-related toxicity (P=0.06). Median time to viral suppression was 5.8 (IQR 4.6-7.9) and 6.0 (4.0-9.4) months in the patients on quadruple and triple therapy, respectively (log-rank, P=0.42). In the adjusted Cox analysis, quadruple therapy was not associated with time to viral suppression (HR 1.07 [95% CI 0.86, 1.33], P=0.53). Similar results were seen when comparing triple- versus dual-class therapy (n=72 versus n=601, respectively)., Conclusions: Initial quadruple- or triple-class therapy was equally effective as standard triple therapy in the suppression of HIV-1 in treatment-naive patients with very high viraemia and did not result in faster pVL decreases, but did expose patients to additional toxicity.

Background: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between immunodeficiency, viremia, and non-AIDS-defining malignancies (NADM)., Methods: Patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) as of 1 January 1996 were selected from the AIDS Therapy Evaluation in the Netherlands (ATHENA) cohort. In Cox models, risk factors for NADM were investigated. These included age, sex, transmission route, smoking, alcohol abuse, prior AIDS diagnosis, duration of exposure to cART, and estimated duration of human immunodeficiency virus infection. CD4+ cell count and viral load (VL) were considered as time-updated variables and as measures of cumulative exposure to CD4+ cell counts of < 200, < 350, or < 500 cells/mm³ and detectable VL >50, >400, and >1000 copies/mL, respectively., Results: In a cohort of 11,459 patients, 236 NADMs were diagnosed; 102 were caused by infection, and 134 were attributable to other causes. Median CD4+ cell count at NADM diagnosis was 340 cells/mm³ (range, 210-540 cells/mm³). Median time to first NADM after starting cART was 5.0 years (range, 2.2-8.2 years). In multivariate models, cumulative exposure to CD4+ cell counts < 200 cells/mm³ remained significant (hazard ratio [HR], 1.12; range, 1.03-1.22) for each additional year of exposure. In stratified analyses, cumulative exposure to CD4+ cell counts < 200 cells/mm³ was associated with malignancies possibly caused by infection (HR, 1.16; range, 1.03-1.31]) but was not associated with other types of cancers. No significant effect of viremia was seen in either type of cancer., Conclusions: Cumulative exposure to CD4+ cell counts < 200 cells/mm³ during cART was associated with an increased risk of infection-related non-AIDS-defining malignancies.

We compared the efficacy of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) of Antillean HIV-1-infected patients treated on the Caribbean island of Curaçao (CUR-AN) with Antillean (NL-AN), Surinam (NL-SUR), and Dutch (NL-NL) patients treated in The Netherlands. In total 2118 therapy-naive patients who started cART between January 2005 and August 2008 were included in the comparison. The CUR-AN patients initiated cART at a median CD4 cell count of 141 cells/mm(3) and 63% had counts below 200 cells/mm(3). Within 12 months of the start of cART 76% of the CUR-AN patients achieved viral suppression, defined as HIV-1 RNA plasma levels below 80 copies/ml. The percentage achieving viral suppression was higher in patients treated in The Netherlands (NL-AN = 87%, NL-SUR = 93%, and NL-NL = 96%). Lost to follow-up after 30 months of cART was 10% among CUR-AN patients and was higher than observed among patients treated in The Netherlands (NL-AN = 8%, NL-SUR = 3%, and NL-NL = 2%). A similar pattern was found for progression to AIDS and death (10% of CUR-AN vs. 5%, 6%, and 7% of NL-AN, NL-SUR, and NL-NL patients, respectively). Late start of cART and limited viral suppression after the start of cART determine the higher rate of disease progression to AIDS and death among Antillean patients treated in Curaçao. The high percentage of lost to follow-up may result in an underestimation of AIDS and AIDS-related death among HIV-1-infected Antilleans treated in Curaçao.

Background: We investigated differences in immune restoration and onset of new AIDS-defining events on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) among HIV type-1 (HIV-1)-infected patients of different regional origin now living in the Netherlands., Methods: Treatment-naive adults reaching plasma viral load (pVL)<400 copies/ml within 9 months of starting cART were selected from the Netherlands ATHENA cohort. CD4(+) T-cell response on cART was determined over 7 years using mixed models. CD4(+) T-cell counts were excluded from the analyses at the first of two consecutive measurements of pVL≥400 copies/ml following prior suppression to <400 copies/ml. Multivariate analyses included gender, age, CD4(+) T-cell count and pVL prior to cART, hepatitis coinfection, HIV-1 transmission and region of origin (Western Europe/North America [WN], sub-Saharan Africa [SSA], Southeast Asia [SEA], Latin America/Caribbean [LAC] or other)., Results: For 6,057 selected patients (WN 3,947, SSA 989, SEA 237, LAC 695 and other 189), median follow-up was 3.2 years (WN 3.3, SSA 2.9, SEA 3.2, LAC 2.7 and other 2.7). CD4(+) T-cell increase in the first 6 months of cART was lower in males than females (-26 cells/mm(3); P<0.0001) and in patients from SSA compared with WN (-36 cells/mm(3); P<0.0001). Because men from SSA started with lower CD4(+) T-cell counts than men from WN, they continued to lag behind and had lower absolute CD4(+) T-cell counts after 7 years of cART. Furthermore, cumulative tuberculosis incidence after 7 years of cART was higher in SSA compared with WN (4.5% versus 0.5%, hazard ratio 5.08, 95% confidence interval 2.22-11.60)., Conclusions: HIV-1-infected immigrants from SSA have blunted immune restoration on fully suppressive cART and should be identified at an earlier disease stage. Our results call for more intensive screening for both latent and active tuberculosis in these patients.

In industrialized countries, virological failure occurs more often among HIV-infected immigrant patients. Non-adherence is the most credible explanation. We compared adherence of immigrant patients with that of non-immigrant patients in the Netherlands, and investigated which method of adherence measurement is most suitable for daily use to predict virological treatment failure: testing knowledge of the current regimen, a quantitative adherence interview, pharmacy prescription refill ratio (dispensed medication divided by prescribed medication, DM/PM), and plasma drug levels. Included were 61 immigrants and 81 non-immigrants. Virological failure did occur more often in immigrants than in non-immigrants (19.7% (12/61) versus 8.6% (7/81), p=0.056), especially among previously naive patients (19.6% (11/56) versus 0% (0/54), p<0.01). There were no differences between both groups on any of the four adherence measures. Virological failure was associated with reporting stopping medication when not feeling well (OR=12, 95%CI=1.9-77.7, p=0.02), and, among naive patients, also with a DM/PM < 0.85 (Odds Ratio=5.1, 95%Confidence Interval=1.2-22.3, p=0.03). Although our study confirmed a much higher virological failure rate among immigrants, we were unable to identify clear differences in adherence between immigrants and non-immigrant patient, although virological failure was associated with stopping medication when not feeling well and a low DM/PM. Unstructured treatment interruptions are a likely explanation of the findings. Interventions should be aimed at preventing patients to stop medication. A DM/PM below 0.85 can be indicative for patients who did stop medication and are at risk for virological failure.

Objective: Reducing viral load, highly active antiretroviral therapy has the potential to limit onwards transmission of HIV-1 and thus help contain epidemic spread. However, increases in risk behaviour and resurgent epidemics have been widely reported post-highly active antiretroviral therapy. The aim of this study was to quantify the impact that highly active antiretroviral therapy had on the epidemic., Design: We focus on the HIV-1 epidemic among men who have sex with men in the Netherlands, which has been well documented over the past 20 years within several long-standing national surveillance programs., Methods: We used a mathematical model including highly active antiretroviral therapy use and estimated the changes in risk behaviour and diagnosis rate needed to explain annual data on HIV and AIDS diagnoses., Results: We show that the reproduction number R(t), a measure of the state of the epidemic, declined early on from initial values above two and was maintained below one from 1985 to 2000. Since 1996, when highly active antiretroviral therapy became widely used, the risk behaviour rate has increased 66%, resulting in an increase of R(t) to 1.04 in the latest period 2000-2004 (95% confidence interval 0.98-1.09) near or just above the threshold for a self-sustaining epidemic. Hypothetical scenario analysis shows that the epidemiological benefits of highly active antiretroviral therapy and earlier diagnosis on incidence have been entirely offset by increases in the risk behaviour rate., Conclusion: We provide the first detailed quantitative analysis of the HIV epidemic in a well defined population and find a resurgent epidemic in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy, most likely predominantly caused by increasing sexual risk behaviour.

Objective: CD4 cell count changes in therapy-naive patients were investigated during 7 years of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in an observational cohort., Methods: Three endpoints were studied: (1) time to >or=800 CD4 cells/mm in 5299 therapy-naive patients starting HAART, (2) CD4 cell count changes during 7 years of uninterrupted HAART in a subset of 544 patients, and (3) reaching a plateau in CD4 cell restoration after 5 years of HAART in 366 virologically suppressed patients., Results: Among patients with <50, 50 to 200, 200 to 350, 350 to 500, and >or=500 CD4 cells/mm at baseline, respectively, 20%, 26%, 46%, 73%, and 87% reached >or=800 CD4 cells/mm within 7 years of starting HAART. Periods with HIV RNA levels >500 copies/mL and age >or=50 years were associated with lesser increases in CD4 cell counts between 6 months and 7 years. Having reached >or=800 CD4 cells/mm at 5 years, age >or=50 years, and >or=1 HIV RNA measurement >1000 copies/mL between 5 and 7 years were associated with a plateau in CD4 cell restoration., Conclusions: Restoration to CD4 cell counts >or=800 cells/mm is feasible within 7 years of HAART in most HIV-infected patients starting with >or=350 cells/mm and achieving sufficient suppression of viral replication. Particularly in patients >or=50 years of age, it may be beneficial to start earlier than current guidelines recommend.

Data collected in a routine clinical setting are frequently used to compare antiretroviral treatments for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Differences in the frequency of measurement of HIV RNA levels and CD4-positive T-lymphocyte cell counts introduce a possible source of bias into estimates of the difference in effectiveness between treatments. The authors investigated the size of this bias when survival analysis methods are used to compare the initial efficacy of antiretroviral regimens. Data sets of clinical markers were simulated by use of differential equations that model the interaction between HIV and human T-cells. Cox proportional hazards and parametric models were fitted to the simulated data sets to evaluate the bias and coverage of 95% confidence intervals for the difference between regimens. The authors' results demonstrate that differences in the frequency of follow-up can substantially bias estimated treatment differences if methods do not correctly account for the intervals between measurements and if the statistical model chosen does not fit the data well. Analyses using methods applicable to interval-censored data reduce the bias. In the Athena cohort of HIV-infected individuals in the Netherlands from 1999 to 2003, there are differences in measurement frequency between current regimens that are of sufficient magnitude to conclude incorrectly that some regimens are more effective than others.

Mortality in HIV-infected patients has decreased dramatically since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We analyzed progression to death in a population of 3678 antiretroviral treatment-naive patients from the ATHENA national observational cohort from 24 weeks after the start of HAART. Mortality was compared with that in the general population in the Netherlands matched by age and gender. Only log-transformed CD4 cell count (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.40 to 0.61 per unit increase) and plasma viral load (HR = 0.30, 95% CI: 0.15 to 0.60, HIV RNA level <100,000 vs. > or = 100,000 copies/mL) measured at 24 weeks and infection via intravenous drug use (IDU) (HR = 0.16, 95% CI: 0.10 to 0.26, non-IDU vs. IDU) were significantly associated with progression to death. For non-IDU patients with 600 x 10 CD4 cells/L and an HIV RNA level <100,000 copies/mL at 24 weeks, mortality was predicted to be 5.3 (95% CI: 3.5 to 8.4) and 10.4 (95% CI: 6.4 to 17.4) times higher than in the general population for 25-year-old men and women, respectively, and 1.15 (95% CI: 1.08 to 1.25) and 1.29 (95% CI: 1.16 to 1.50) times higher for 65-year-old men and women, respectively. Hence, mortality in HIV-infected patients with a good initial response to HAART is still higher than in the general population.