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Objectives: To review studies that address prediction of response to biologic treatment in RA and to explore the clinical utility of the studied (bio)markers., Methods: A search for relevant articles was performed in PubMed, Embase and Cochrane databases. Studies that presented predictive values or in which these could be calculated were selected. The added value was determined by the added value on prior probability for each (bio)marker. Only an increase/decrease in chance of response ⩾15% was considered clinically relevant, whereas in oncology values >25% are common., Results: Of the 57 eligible studies, 14 (bio)markers were studied in more than one cohort and an overview of the added predictive value of each marker is presented. Of the replicated predictors, none consistently showed an increase/decrease in probability of response ⩾15%. However, positivity of RF and ACPA in case of rituximab and the presence of the TNF-α promoter 308 GG genotype for TNF inhibitor therapy were consistently predictive, yet low in added predictive value. Besides these, 65 (bio)markers studied once showed remarkably high (but not validated) predictive values., Conclusion: We were unable to address clinically useful baseline (bio)markers for use in individually tailored treatment. Some predictors are consistently predictive, yet low in added predictive value, while several others are promising but await replication. The challenge now is to design studies to validate all explored and promising findings individually and in combination to make these (bio)markers relevant to clinical practice., (© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objective: To determine the optimal methotrexate dose in individual patients and to explore whether this optimal dose and the level of disease activity at that dose could be predicted., Methods: Data from CAMERA II trial comparing MTX and MTX with 10 mg of prednisone both in a tight control treatment strategy in early RA was used. For each patient a curve for disease activity over time was fitted and the MTX dose after which further step-up did not result in relevant improvement in disease activity anymore was determined the 'lowest optimally effective MTX dose (LOED)'. The association of demographic and clinical characteristics at baseline with this LOED and with the level of disease activity reached at LOED was studied., Results: In 204 (100 MTX and 104 MTX with prednisone) out of 236 patients LOED could be defined. 10 mg/wk was the most prevalent LOED in patients treated with MTX and prednisone and 10 mg/wk, 20 mg/wk and 30 mg/wk in the MTX strategy. Although the specific LOED could not reliably be predicted, higher baseline disease activity, height and lower weight were associated with higher LOEDs (i.e at least 15 mg/wk). A score was presented to decide on a starting dose of 10 mg/wk or (at least) 15 mg/wk. The level of disease activity at LOED could not be reliably predicted., Conclusion: A starting dose of 10 mg/wk might be a good choice for most patients and is frequently already the optimal dose. However, a subgroup of patient can be determined who would require higher MTX doses.

Objective: Pragmatic clinical trials have been proposed as a solution for nongeneralizability of randomized clinical trial (RCT) results. We investigated whether treatment effects of pragmatic clinical trials are indeed generalizable to clinical practice and how efficacy estimates from published RCTs can be translated to daily practice populations., Methods: Data from pragmatic clinical trials of the Utrecht Rheumatoid Arthritis Cohort and the observational Nijmegen Early Rheumatoid Arthritis inception cohort were used. The treatment effects of methotrexate and hydroxychloroquine as opposed to the pyramid approach were compared between the trials and observational study using a modified comprehensive cohort design analysis. The changes from baseline in disease activity (Disease Activity Score in 28 joints [DAS28]) and functional disability (Health Assessment Questionnaire [HAQ]) and European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) response at 6 months were studied. The influence of population and treatment characteristics on the American College of Rheumatology 50% improvement criteria response compared with control therapy also at 6 months from RCTs was assessed using the relative risk (RR) and risk difference (RD)., Results: The DAS28 and HAQ generally improved more in patients in the pragmatic trials than in daily practice. However, using EULAR response as outcome, the treatment effect was not found to be different. In published RCT data, higher glucocorticoid use, disease duration, and cotreatment with disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs increased the RR. Use of glucocorticoids increased the RD, and higher values of baseline DAS28 and HAQ decreased the RR and RD., Conclusion: Pragmatic clinical trials might be directly generalizable only regarding relative treatment response. In extrapolating published RCT results to daily practice, population characteristics associated with disease severity, disease duration, and treatment history or cotreatment need to be taken into account., (Copyright © 2014 by the American College of Rheumatology.)