Search

This paper obtains some specific density functions for aggregated discounted claims where the claim amounts are dependent, or the inter-claim times are dependent, or the claim amounts and the claim arrival process are both dependent. The dependence is structured through mixing, and the claim arrival process studied is either an ordinary Poisson process or a mixed Poisson process. Closed form densities are obtained for gamma, generalized exponential, generalized Pareto and beta mixing, and an important use of them is illustrated.

Generalized method of moment (GMM) is an important estimation method for econometric models. However, it is highly sensitive to the outliers and influential observations. This paper studies the detection of influential observations using GMM estimation and establishes some useful diagnostic tools, such as residual and leverage measures. The case deletion technique is employed to derive diagnostic measures. Under linear moment conditions, an exact deletion formula is derived, and under nonlinear moment condition an approximate formula is suggested. The results are applied to efficient instrumental variable estimation and dynamic panel data models. In addition, generalized residuals and leverage measure for GMM estimator are defined and discussed. Two real data sets are used for illustration and a simulation study is conducted to confirm the usefulness of the proposed methodology.

Deletion, replacement and mean-shift model are three approaches frequently used to detect influential observations and outliers. For general linear model with known covariance matrix, it is known that these three approaches lead to the same update formulae for the estimates of the regression coefficients. However if the covariance matrix is indexed by some unknown parameters which also need to be estimated, the situation is unclear. In this paper, we show under a common subclass of linear mixed models that the three approaches are no longer equivalent. For maximum likelihood estimation, replacement is equivalent to mean-shift model but both are not equivalent to case deletion. For restricted maximum likelihood estimation, mean-shift model is equivalent to case deletion but both are not equivalent to replacement. We also demonstrate with real data that misuse of replacement and mean-shift model in place of case deletion can lead to incorrect results.

This paper is concerned with inference of panel data varying-coefficient partially linear models with a one-way error structure. The model is a natural extension of the well-known panel data linear model (due to Baltagi 1995) to the setting of semiparametric regressions. The authors propose a weighted profile least squares estimator (WPLSE) and a weighted local polynomial estimator (WLPE) for the parametric and nonparametric components, respectively. It is shown that the WPLSE is asymptotically more efficient than the usual profile least squares estimator (PLSE), and that the WLPE is also asymptotically more efficient than the usual local polynomial estimator (LPE). The latter is an interesting result. According to Ruckstuhl, Welsh and Carroll (2000) and Lin and Carroll (2000), ignoring the correlation structure entirely and “pretending” that the data are really independent will result in more efficient estimators when estimating nonparametric regression with longitudinal or panel data. The result in this paper shows that this is not true when the design points of the nonparametric component have a closeness property within groups. The asymptotic properties of the proposed weighted estimators are derived. In addition, a block bootstrap test is proposed for the goodness of fit of models, which can accommodate the correlations within groups. Some simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performances of the proposed procedures.

A simulation technique known as empirical martingale simulation (EMS) was proposed to improve simulation accuracy. By an adjustment to the standard Monte Carlo simulation, EMS ensures that the simulated price satisfies the rational option pricing bounds and that the estimated derivative contract price is strongly consistent with payoffs that satisfy Lipschitz condition. However, for some currently used contracts such as self-quanto options and asymmetric or symmetric power options, it is open whether the above asymptotic result holds. In this paper, we prove that the strong consistency of the EMS option price estimator holds for a wider class of univariate payoffs than those restricted by Lipschitz condition. Numerical experiments demonstrate that EMS can also substantially increase simulation accuracy in the extended setting.

This paper studies case deletion diagnostics for multilevel models. Using subset deletion, diagnostic measures for identifying influential units at any level are developed for both fixed and random parameters. Two approximate update formulae are derived. The first formula uses one-step approximation, while the second formula also includes the impact of estimating the random parameter. Two examples are used to illustrate the methodology developed.

The authors study the local influence of observations in multilevel regression models. To this end, they perturb simultaneously the variances, responses and design matrix. To measure the local change caused by these perturbations, they use generalized Cook statistics for the fixed and random parameter estimates. Closed form local influence measures also allow them to assess the joint influence of various observations. They suggest a simple computation method and illustrate their results using two examples. Etude de I'influence locale dans les modeles multi-niveaux Les auteurs etudient l'influence locale des observations dans les modeles de regression multi-niveaux. A cette fin, ils perturbent a la fois les variances, les variables endogenes et la matrice d'incidence. Pour mesurer le changement local cause par ces perturbations, ils se servent des statistiques de Cook generalisees associees aux estimations des effets fixes et aleatoires. Des formules explicites leur permettent aussi de mesurer l'influence locale conjuguee de diverses observations. Ils suggerent une methode de calcul simple et illustrent leurs resultats a l'aide de deux exemples.

Correlation is an important and widely used concept, and it is usually taught through word explanation or graphic description accompanied with a numeric measure if such a measure exists. In this note, we explore graphing one of the commonly used correlation measures, Kendall's @t, in such a way that we display how Kendall's @t is calculated and see how Kendall's @t is influenced by data features.

This paper is concerned with the estimation problem in partially linear regression models with serially correlated errors. The authors propose a semiparametric generalized least squares estimator (SGLSE) for the parametric component and show that it is asymptotically more efficient than the semiparametric ordinary least squares estimator (SOLSE) in terms of asymptotic covariance matrix. Other properties of this SGLSE including the asymptotic normality and the law of the iterated logarithm are established as well. A simulation study is conducted to examine the finite-sample properties of the proposed estimator and an empirical example is discussed.

The authors define a class of "partially linear single-index" survival models that are more flexible than the classical proportional hazards regression models in their treatment of covariates. The latter enter the proposed model either via a parametric linear form or a nonparametric single-index form. It is then pos sible to model both linear and functional effects of covariates on the logarithm of the hazard function and if necessary, to reduce the dimensionality of multiple covariates via the single-index component. The par tially linear hazards model and the single-index hazards model are special cases of the proposed model. The authors develop a likelihood-based inference to estimate the model components via an iterative algorithm. They establish an asymptotic distribution theory for the proposed estimators, examine their finite-sample behaviour through simulation, and use a set of real data to illustrate their approach. Une classe de modeles de survie partiellement lineaires a indice simple Rgsum=: Les auteurs d6finissent une classe de modeles de survie dits "partiellement lineaires a indice simple" qui s'averent plus flexibles que les modeles de regression a risques proportionnels classiques dans le traitement des covariables. Ces dernieres entrent dans le modele propose soit sous une forme lin6aire param6trique, soit sous une forme a indice simple non parametrique. I1 est alors possible de modeliser a la fois des effets lineaires et fonctionnels de covariables sur le logarithme du risque, et de reduire au besoin la dimension de covariables multiples par l'intermediaire de la composante a indice simple. Les modeles a risques partiellement lineaires et a indice simple sont des cas speciaux du modele propose. Les auteurs developpent une methode d'inf6rence vraisemblantiste pour l'estimation des composantes du modele au moyen d'un algorithme it6ratif. Ils d6terminent la loi asymptotique des estimateurs proposes, en etudient le comportement a taille finie par voie de simulation et illustrent leur approche a l'aide de donnees reelles.

The authors propose a block empirical likelihood procedure to accommodate the within-group correlation in longitudinal partially linear regression models. This leads them to prove a nonparametric version of the Wilks theorem. In comparison with normal approximations, their method does not require a consistent estimator for the asymptotic covariance matrix, which makes it easier to conduct inference on the parametric component of the model. An application to a longitudinal study on fluctuations of progesterone level in a menstrual cycle is used to illustrate the procedure developed here. Une vraisemblance empirique par bloc pour les modeles de regression partiellernent lineaires longitudinaux Les auteurs proposent une procedure a base de vraisemblance empirique par bloc pour tenir compte de la correlation intra-groupe dans des modeles de regression partiellement lineaires longitudinaux. Ceci les ameneo a demontrer une version non parametrique du theoreme de Wilks. A la difference des approximations normales, leur methode ne fait pas appel a un estimateur convergent de la matrice des cova-riances asymptotiques, ce qui facilite l'inference concernant la composante parametrique du modele. Une etude longitudinale sur la fluctuation du niveau de progesterone pendant le cycle menstruel sert a illustrer le propos.

We study the estimation problems for a partly linear regression model with a nonlinear time series error structure. The model consists of a parametric linear component for the regression coefficients and a nonparametric nonlinear component. The random errors are unobservable and modeled by a first-order Markov bilinear process. Based on a B-spline series approximation of the nonlinear component function, we propose a semiparametric ordinary least squares estimator and a semiparametric generalized least squares estimator of the regression coefficients, a least squares estimator of the autoregression parameter for the errors, and a B-spline series estimator of the nonparametric component function. The asymptotic properties of these estimators are investigated and their asymptotic distributions are derived. We also provide a consistent estimator for the asymptotic covariance matrix of the semiparametric generalized least squares estimator of the regression coefficients. Our results can be used to make asymptotically efficient statistical inferences. In addition, a small simulation is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimators, which shows that the semiparametric generalized least squares estimator of the regression coefficients is more efficient than the semiparametric ordinary least squares estimator.

Consider a repeated measurement partially linear regression model with an unknown vector parameter β 1, an unknown function g(·), and unknown heteroscedastic error variances. In order to improve the semiparametric generalized least squares estimator (SGLSE) of β, we propose an iterative weighted semiparametric least squares estimator (IWSLSE) and show that it improves upon the SGLSE in terms of asymptotic covariance matrix. An adaptive procedure is given to determine the number of iterations. We also show that when the number of replicates is less than or equal to two, the IWSLSE can not improve upon the SGLSE. These results are generalizations of those in [2] to the case of semiparametric regressions.

Consider a partially linear regression model with an unknown vector parameter β, an unknown functiong(·), and unknown heteroscedastic error variances. In this paper we develop an asymptotic semiparametric generalized least squares estimation theory under some weak moment conditions. These moment conditions are satisfied by many of the error distributions encountered in practice, and our theory does not require the number of replications to go to infinity.

The authors extend the block external bootstrap to partially linear regression models with strongly mixing, nonstationary error terms. In addition to providing an approximate distribution for the semiparametric least square estimator of the parametric component, they propose a consistent estimator of the co-variance matrix of this estimator. Les auteurs etendent le bootstrap externe par bloc aux modeles partiellement lineaires dont les termes d'erreur sont fortement melangeants et non stationnaires. En plus de donner une approximation de la loi de l'estimateur des moindres carres semiparametrique de la composante parametrique, ils proposent un estimateur convergent de la matrice de covariance de cet estimateur.

This paper presents three versions of the Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests of transformation in nonlinear regression: (i) LM test based on expected information, (ii) LM test based on Hessian, and (iii) the LM test based on gradient. All three tests can be easily implemented through a nonlinear least squares procedure. Simulation results show that, in terms of finite sample performance, the LM test based on expected information is the best, followed by the LM test based on Hessian and then the LM test based on gradient. The LM test based on gradient can perform rather poorly. An example is given for illustration.

Consider a partially linear regression model with an unknown vector parameter β, an unknown function g(·), and unknown heteroscedastic error variances. Chen, You[23] proposed a semiparametric generalized least squares estimator (SGLSE) for β, which takes the heteroscedasticity into account to increase efficiency. For inference based on this SGLSE, it is necessary to construct a consistent estimator for its asymptotic covariance matrix. However, when there exists within-group correlation, the traditional delta method and the delete-1 jackknife estimation fail to offer such a consistent estimator. In this paper, by deleting grouped partial residuals a delete-group jackknife method is examined. It is shown that the delete-group jackknife method indeed can provide a consistent estimator for the asymptotic covariance matrix in the presence of within-group correlations. This result is an extension of that in [21].

Consider the partly linear regression model $$ y_{i} = {x}'_{i} \beta + g{\left( {t_{i} } \right)} + \varepsilon _{i} ,\;\;{\kern 1pt} 1 \leqslant i \leqslant n $$ , where y i ’s are responses, $$ x_{i} = {\left( {x_{{i1}} ,x_{{i2}} , \cdots ,x_{{ip}} } \right)}^{\prime } \;\;\;{\text{and}}\;\;\;t_{i} \in {\cal T} $$ are known and nonrandom design points, $$ {\cal T} $$ is a compact set in the real line $$ {\cal R} $$ , β = (β 1, ··· , β p )' is an unknown parameter vector, g(·) is an unknown function and {e i } is a linear process, i.e., $$ \varepsilon _{i} {\kern 1pt} = {\kern 1pt} {\sum\limits_{j = 0}^\infty {\psi _{j} e_{{i - j}} ,{\kern 1pt} \;\psi _{0} {\kern 1pt} = {\kern 1pt} 1,\;{\kern 1pt} {\sum\limits_{j = 0}^\infty {{\left| {\psi _{j} } \right|} < \infty } }} } $$ , where e j are i.i.d. random variables with zero mean and variance $$ \sigma ^{2}_{e} $$ . Drawing upon B-spline estimation of g(·) and least squares estimation of β, we construct estimators of the autocovariances of {e i }. The uniform strong convergence rate of these estimators to their true values is then established. These results not only are a compensation for those of [23], but also have some application in modeling error structure. When the errors {e i } are an ARMA process, our result can be used to develop a consistent procedure for determining the order of the ARMA process and identifying the non-zero coeffcients of the process. Moreover, our result can be used to construct the asymptotically effcient estimators for parameters in the ARMA error process.

The authors provide a rigorous large sample theory for linear models whose response variable has been subjected to the Box-Cox transformation. They provide a continuous asymptotic approximation to the distribution of estimators of natural parameters of the model. They show, in particular, that the maximum likelihood estimator of the ratio of slope to residual standard deviation is consistent and relatively stable. The authors further show the importance for inference of normality of the errors and give tests for normality based on the estimated residuals. For non-normal errors, they give adjustments to the log-likelihood and to asymptotic standard errors.

A specific scale must be used to collect data in an experiment, but this scale may or may not be the appropriate scale to analyze the data thus collected. In this paper, we study a family of three-parameter distributions which includes the log-normal distribution as a special case, and one of the parameters plays the role of choosing a suitable scale for subsequent analysis. Some basic properties and maximum likelihood estimation of the unknown parameters are discussed, and an easy-to-use goodness-of-fit test is developed. A real data set, to which the usual Weibull, log-normal and gamma distributions cannot be fitted, is used to demonstrate the potential applicability of this family of distributions.

In this paper we consider the estimation of the degree of differencing d in the fractionally integrated autoregressive moving-average time series model ARFIMA (p, d, q). Using lag window spectral density estimators we develop a regression type estimator of d which is easy to calculate and does not require prior knowledge of p and q. Some large sample properties of the estimator are studied and the performance of the estimator for small samples is investigated using the simulation method for a range of commonly used lag windows. Some practical recommendations on the choice of lag windows and the choice of the window parameters are provided.

Weak convergence results are obtained in this paper for the residual empirical processes in linear models, when the normal error assumption is replaced by a number of other error assumptions such as the Gamma family and the inverse Gaussian family. Application to asymptotic power calculations for a class of tests of fit is discussed.

The shape of the commonly used distributions in extreme value analysis is determined by either a specific functional form or a shape parameter. In this paper, we develop a family of distributions which uses two parameters to determine the shape: a balance parameter to control symmetry and a tail order parameter to control the thickness of the tail and modes. Each member in this family has closed forms for its density, cumulative distribution, and quantile function. We discuss the maximum likelihood and minimum distance estimation of the unknown parameters and illustrate the usefulness of the new distribution in extreme value analysis with a real data set.

When fitting, by least squares, a linear model (with an intercept term) with $p$ parameters to $n$ data points, the asymptotic behavior of the residual empirical process is shown to be the same as in the single sample problem provided $p^3 \log^2 (p) /n \to 0$ for any error density having finite variance and a bounded first derivative. No further conditions are imposed on the sequence of design matrices. The result is extended to more general estimates with the property that the average error and average squared error in the fitted values are on the same order as for least squares.

This paper is concerned with a partial linear regression model with serially correlated random errors which are unobservable and modeled by a moving-average process of infinite order. We study a class of estimators for the linear regression coefficients as well as the function characterizing the non-linear part of the model, constructed based on general kernel smoothing and least squares methods. The law of iterated logarithm and strong convergence rates of these estimator are derived by truncating the moving-average error process, a procedure widely applied in the analysis of time series. Our results can be used to establish uniform strong convergence rate of the estimators of autocovariance and autocorrelation functions of the error process.