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Context: Spring-sown forage brassicas are commonly used to fill feed gaps in high-rainfall temperate livestock systems, but they have wider potential as an autumn-sown forage in drier environments within Australia's crop–livestock zone. Aims: We modelled the production potential of autumn-sown forage brassicas grown in diverse environments and tested their ability to alter the frequency and magnitude of feed gaps. Methods: Long-term production potential was simulated in APSIM for four forage brassica genotypes, compared with forage wheat and dual-purpose canola across 22 diverse agro-climatic locations. For seven regions, the change in frequency and magnitude of forage deficits from adding forage brassicas to representative forage–livestock systems was predicted. Key results: Across locations, median yields of forage brassicas ranged from 7 to 19 t DM/ha, and their annual metabolisable-energy yield was higher than that of forage wheat at most sites and nearly always exceeded dual-purpose canola. Forage brassicas performed better than forage wheat in later-sowing events (late April to early May) and maintained growth and quality later into spring. At five of the seven regions, adding 15% of farm forage area to forage brassicas reduced the frequency and magnitude of feed deficits by 35–50% and 20–40%, respectively. However, they were less beneficial where winter–spring feed gaps are uncommon. Conclusions: We demonstrated that autumn-sown forage brassicas can be reliable and productive contributors to the feed base in drier environments and are a suitable alternative to forage cereals. Implications: Forage brassicas can help reduce feed gaps and improve livestock production in a range of production systems spanning Australia's crop–livestock zone. Long-term simulation modelling showed that autumn-sown forage brassicas can serve as a reliable and valuable forage source in drier environments across Australia's crop–livestock zone. They have a long grazing window and stable production across a range of sowing dates and environments. Integrating forage brassicas into the existing feed base can reduce the frequency and magnitude of on-farm feed deficits in livestock production systems. They can also allow for a safe increase in stocking rates and reduce the need for supplementary feed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: The winter feed gap is a common problem for livestock grazing systems worldwide, and changes to climate have made these deficits more unpredictable and extreme. Dual-purpose crops are an important tool in many southern Australian mixed crop–livestock systems to help fill the winter feed gap. Providing more reliable feed over winter can remove feed constraints and allow for earlier lambing in autumn with potential whole-farm system benefits. Aims: We simulated a whole-farm livestock enterprise in the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) to examine the implications of spring- and autumn-lambing systems relying on a standard pasture-only feedbase compared with a farm where 25% of its grazed area is allocated to dual-purpose crops. Methods: Twelve simulations were run across four locations in New South Wales, Australia, that varied in climatic conditions (both rainfall total and distribution) including two lambing systems (spring vs autumn) × two feedbase types (100% pasture vs 75% pasture and 25% dual-purpose crops) × three stocking densities. Key results: For autumn-lambing systems, integrating dual-purpose crops helped to fill the winter feed gap and reduced supplement demand on average by ~28% compared with a pasture-only system. Compared with the standard pasture-only spring-lambing system, integrating dual-purpose crops into spring- and autumn-lambing systems more than doubled gross margin returns due to economic grain yield and lower supplement demand. A shift from spring- to autumn-lambing facilitated by dual-purpose crops also led to better reproductive performance of ewes in the subsequent year. In higher-rainfall, cooler environments, autumn-lambing systems with dual-purpose crops had the highest system gross margins, lowest economic risk and allowed for a safe increase in stocking density. In lower-rainfall, warmer environments, integration of dual-purpose crops into spring-lambing systems returned marginally higher gross margins than for the autumn-lambing system, but differences were less apparent at high stocking density. In lower-rainfall environments, dual-purpose crops helped to mitigate some of the economic risk, but the benefits were less clear. Conclusions: We show dual-purpose crops can help fill the winter feed gap and support earlier lambing in autumn across a range of environments, especially in higher-rainfall cooler environments, with significant improvements in total farm gross margins. Implications: Integrating dual-purpose crops will enable farmers to change their livestock system to mitigate their risks, reduce supplementary feeding and capitalise on other potential benefits, such as improved marketing and avoiding animal health problems. Whole-farm simulation modelling suggests that integrating dual-purpose crops of wheat and canola to 25% of the farm decreases the winter feed gap and facilitates autumn-lambing systems across environments. Spring- and autumn-lambing systems with dual-purpose crops achieved more than double the farm gross margins compared with the standard spring-lambing, pasture-only system. In higher-rainfall, cooler environments, autumn-lambing systems with dual-purpose crops returned higher gross margins due to grain production and lower supplement demand, but in lower-rainfall, warmer environments, spring-lambing systems were still more profitable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the implications of replacing fallows with cover crops on plant-available water (PAW) and soil mineral nitrogen (N) and their carry-over effects on subsequent cash crops is critical for understanding their potential for ecological intensification in water-limited environments. We modelled the impacts of different cover crop functional types over historical climate to predict how climate variability influences soil water and N acquisition and subsequent availability to a maize crop in a dryland farming system of subtropical Australia. Following local validation of simulation models (APSIM) with 3-site-years of field data, 70 years of crop-fallow rotations were simulated comparing conventional fallow against a diverse range of cover crops comprising monocultures and mixtures of grass vs. legume vs. brassica. Cover crops consistently reduced soil water and mineral N at maize sowing compared to conventional fallow. In dry to normal precipitation years, this induced a maize yield penalty of up to − 18% relative to fallow, primarily due to reduced water availability. In wet years, increased in maize grain yield (+4%) was predicted following legume and grass-associated cover crop mixtures with concomitant reductions in N leaching and soil surface runoff of up to 40%. Cash crop yields following grass-cover crops were more stable and carried lower downside risks; multi-species (grass-legume-brassica) cover crop mixtures carried higher yield penalties and greater downside risks due to high biomass accumulation and high soil water extraction. These long-term predictions in water-limited environments indicate that increasing cover crop complexity by using mixtures with diverse functional traits can lead to a greater risk of yield losses and increased yield instability unless they are managed differently to monoculture cover crops. Therefore, for successful integration of cover crops into dryland agroecosystems, cover crops should be considered as a flexible choice grown under favourable precipitation and economic scenarios rather than for continuous fallow replacement. • Applied APSIM to assess potential dryland fallow replacement cover crop options. • Cover crops reduced yields by 12% relative to fallow in dry to normal years. • Predicted yield gains in wet years following fababean and multi-species mixture. • Dryland cover crops should be considered as an opportunistic practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Failing grain crops are sometimes sacrificed for grazing by mixed farmers, a decision involving a complex range of factors. This simulation study used two APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator)-based approaches to investigate the circumstances under which more revenue might be obtained by sacrificing a wheat crop for grazing rather than harvesting it for grain in Western Australia's grainbelt. First, we developed a simple partial budget calculation to estimate and compare revenue from grain or grazing alternatives using data for grain yield and standing biomass at flowering. This was simulated for a factorial of soil types and locations varying in mean annual rainfall. We then simulated wheat quality and livestock production on spring wheat grazed at different stages of crop development and at a range of stocking rates. Dynamic simulations of grazing showed that livestock production increased as grazing was delayed; stocking rate had little impact at this time. Grazing earlier necessitated lighter stocking rates but surprisingly had little benefit for animal performance. Partial budgets showed that under average commodity prices, grazing a wheat crop could be more profitable 40-75% of the time on poorer soil types in lower rainfall environments. In these situations, by tactically grazing when grain yield is below a critical level economic returns could be increased by more than A$50/ha in 30-40% of years and over the long term average revenues could be increased by A$30/ha.year. This critical grain yield ranged from 1.3 to 1.7 t/ha on shallow gravel soil and 1.9 to 2.2 t/ha on a deep sand. In higher rainfall environments and on better soil types grazing was rarely a better option unless livestock prices were high relative to grain. This approach, combining crop simulation with partial budgets, was useful for developing simple management rules for a complex system. Overall, the findings of this study suggest that making tactical use of a wheat crop for forage in situations with low grain yield prospects is a major opportunity to increase profitability and help respond to climate variability in mixed farms in many areas of the Western Australian wheatbelt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maintaining the productive capacity of the agricultural soils of Australia's broadacre cropping zone requires careful management, given a highly variable climate and soils that are susceptible to degradation. Mixed crop-livestock farming systems are the predominant land use across these regions and managers must operate farms for long-term sustainability as well as shorter-term profitability. Achieving profitable and sustainable businesses has required ongoing innovation and productivity gains, of which the integration of crop and livestock enterprises has been an important part. Production-soil erosion trade-offs associated with enterprise integration is critical information that has not been investigated to date at a whole-farm level. The objective of this study was to systematically evaluate management options developed in Grain and Graze (an integrated program of research, development and extension targeting mixed farms) to identify farm systems responses to soil erosion risks across seven regions spanning the mixed-farming area of Australia. To evaluate production-soil erosion trade-offs, we linked the APSIM soil water, soil nutrient cycling, annual crop and surface residue simulation models to the GRAZPLAN pasture and ruminant simulation models, using the AusFarm modelling software. Our results demonstrate that the management options tested in Grain and Graze support the principles of conservation agriculture and inform the sustainable intensification of mixed farming systems. Across the regions considered we found that: (1) Increasing pasture legume content and soil fertility can consistently benefit farm production and environmental indicators, (2) management interventions that target direct management of ground cover have the greatest potential to reduce soil erosion rates, (3) management during critical periods of naturally high soil erodibility and wind/water erosivity can substantially increase or decrease erosion risk; the timing of management interventions is therefore critical, and (4) grazing management to balance use of crop residues and pasture biomass is required to avoid developing hot spots of erosion and soil degradation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural systems models worldwide are increasingly being used to explore options and solutions for the food security, climate change adaptation and mitigation and carbon trading problem domains. APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) is one such model that continues to be applied and adapted to this challenging research agenda. From its inception twenty years ago, APSIM has evolved into a framework containing many of the key models required to explore changes in agricultural landscapes with capability ranging from simulation of gene expression through to multi-field farms and beyond. Keating et al. (2003) described many of the fundamental attributes of APSIM in detail. Much has changed in the last decade, and the APSIM community has been exploring novel scientific domains and utilising software developments in social media, web and mobile applications to provide simulation tools adapted to new demands. This paper updates the earlier work by Keating et al. (2003) and chronicles the changing external challenges and opportunities being placed on APSIM during the last decade. It also explores and discusses how APSIM has been evolving to a “next generation” framework with improved features and capabilities that allow its use in many diverse topics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]