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We investigate factors influencing European winter (DJFM) air temperatures for the period 1979–2015 with the focus on changes during the recent period of rapid Arctic warming (1998–2015). We employ meteorological reanalyses analysed with a combination of correlation analysis, two pattern clustering techniques, and back‐trajectory airmass identification. In all five selected European regions, severe cold winter events lasting at least 4 days are significantly correlated with warm Arctic episodes. Relationships during opposite conditions of warm Europe/cold Arctic are also significant. Correlations have become consistently stronger since 1998. Large‐scale pattern analysis reveals that cold spells are associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO‐) and the positive phase of the Scandinavian (SCA+) pattern, which in turn are correlated with the divergence of dry‐static energy transport. Warm European extremes are associated with opposite phases of these patterns and the convergence of latent heat transport. Airmass trajectory analysis is consistent with these findings, as airmasses associated with extreme cold events typically originate over continents, while warm events tend to occur with prevailing maritime airmasses. Despite Arctic‐wide warming, significant cooling has occurred in northeastern Europe owing to a decrease in adiabatic subsidence heating in airmasses arriving from the southeast, along with increased occurrence of circulation patterns favouring low temperature advection. These dynamic effects dominated over the increased mean temperature of most circulation patterns. Lagged correlation analysis reveals that SCA‐ and NAO+ are typically preceded by cold Arctic anomalies during the previous 2–3 months, which may aid seasonal forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The ability of state‐of‐the‐art regional climate models to simulate cyclone activity in the Arctic is assessed based on an ensemble of 13 simulations from 11 models from the Arctic‐CORDEX initiative. Some models employ large‐scale spectral nudging techniques. Cyclone characteristics simulated by the ensemble are compared with the results forced by four reanalyses (ERA‐Interim, National Centers for Environmental Prediction‐Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, National Aeronautics and Space Administration‐Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2, and Japan Meteorological Agency‐Japanese 55‐year reanalysis) in winter and summer for 1981–2010 period. In addition, we compare cyclone statistics between ERA‐Interim and the Arctic System Reanalysis reanalyses for 2000–2010. Biases in cyclone frequency, intensity, and size over the Arctic are also quantified. Variations in cyclone frequency across the models are partly attributed to the differences in cyclone frequency over land. The variations across the models are largest for small and shallow cyclones for both seasons. A connection between biases in the zonal wind at 200 hPa and cyclone characteristics is found for both seasons. Most models underestimate zonal wind speed in both seasons, which likely leads to underestimation of cyclone mean depth and deep cyclone frequency in the Arctic. In general, the regional climate models are able to represent the spatial distribution of cyclone characteristics in the Arctic but models that employ large‐scale spectral nudging show a better agreement with ERA‐Interim reanalysis than the rest of the models. Trends also exhibit the benefits of nudging. Models with spectral nudging are able to reproduce the cyclone trends, whereas most of the nonnudged models fail to do so. However, the cyclone characteristics and trends are sensitive to the choice of nudged variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study investigates future changes of the Arctic climate by the end of the 21st century, simulated by the regional climate model HIRHAM forced with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model and assuming the SRES A1B emission scenario. This assessment provides the regional patterns of future circulation, temperature, and precipitation in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century. The magnitude of winter and summer temperature and precipitation is projected to increase, while their interannual variability is projected to change seasonally and is regionally dependent. The regional-scale response of the temperature and precipitation is associated with changes in storm tracks and atmospheric baroclinicity. During winter, the regions of strongest baroclinicity are shifted northward and strengthened. Changes in the seasonal temperature and precipitation are accompanied by changes in their extremes. Extreme warm and cold events are significantly projected to change, with relative changes of seasonal precipitation being larger than those of precipitation extremes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this work, a closure experiment for tropospheric aerosol is presented. Aerosol size distributions and single scattering albedo from remote sensing data are compared to those measured in-situ. An aerosol pollution event on 4 April 2009 was observed by ground based and airborne lidar and photometer in and around Ny-Ålesund, Spitsbergen, as well as by DMPS, nephelometer and particle soot absorption photometer at the nearby Zeppelin Mountain Research Station. The presented measurements were conducted in an area of 40 × 20 km around Ny-Ålesund as part of the 2009 Polar Airborne Measurements and Arctic Regional Climate Model Simulation Project (PAMARCMiP). Aerosol mainly in the accumulation mode was found in the lower troposphere, however, enhanced backscattering was observed up to the tropopause altitude. A comparison of meteorological data available at different locations reveals a stable multi-layer-structure of the lower troposphere. It is followed by the retrieval of optical and microphysical aerosol parameters. Extinction values have been derived using two different methods, and it was found that extinction (especially in the UV) derived from Raman lidar data significantly surpasses the extinction derived from photometer AOD profiles. Airborne lidar data shows volume depolarization values to be less than 2.5% between 500 m and 2.5 km altitude, hence, particles in this range can be assumed to be of spherical shape. In-situ particle number concentrations measured at the Zeppelin Mountain Research Station at 474 m altitude peak at about 0.18 μm diameter, which was also found for the microphysical inversion calculations performed at 850 m and 1500 m altitude. Number concentrations depend on the assumed extinction values, and slightly decrease with altitude as well as the effective particle diameter. A low imaginary part in the derived refractive index suggests weakly absorbing aerosols, which is confirmed by low black carbon concentrations, measured at the Zeppelin Mountain as well as on board the Polar 5 aircraft. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Changes in the characteristics of cyclone activity (frequency, depth and size) in the Arctic are analyzed based on simulations with state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative and global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Most of RCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency in winter (DJF) and a decrease in summer (JJA) to the end of the 21st century. However, in one half of the RCMs, cyclones become weaker and substantially smaller in winter and deeper and larger in summer. RCMs as well as GCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency over the Baffin Bay, Barents Sea, north of Greenland, Canadian Archipelago, and a decrease over the Nordic Seas, Kara and Beaufort Seas and over the sub-arctic continental regions in winter. In summer, the models simulate an increase of cyclone frequency over the Central Arctic and Greenland Sea and a decrease over the Norwegian and Kara Seas by the end of the 21st century. The decrease is also found over the high-latitude continental areas, in particular, over east Siberia and Alaska. The sensitivity of the RCMs' projections to the boundary conditions and model physics is estimated. In general, different lateral boundary conditions from the GCMs have larger effects on the simulated RCM projections than the differences in RCMs' setup and/or physics. • Changes in the characteristics of cyclone activity in the Arctic are analyzed based on simulations with RCMs (Arctic-CORDEX) • Most of RCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency in winter and a decrease in summer to the end of the 21st century • Different lateral BCs from the GCMs have larger effects on the simulated RCM's than setup and/or physics [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]