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The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid transformation toward a seasonally ice‐free ecosystem. As ice‐adapted apex predators, polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are challenged to cope with ongoing habitat degradation and changes in their prey base driven by food‐web response to climate warming. Knowledge of polar bear response to environmental change is necessary to understand ecosystem dynamics and inform conservation decisions. In the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) of Alaska and western Canada, sea ice extent has declined since satellite observations began in 1979 and available evidence suggests that the carrying capacity of the SBS for polar bears has trended lower for nearly two decades. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of polar bears in Alaska's SBS from 2001 to 2016 using a multistate Cormack–Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model. States were defined as geographic regions, and we used location data from mark–recapture observations and satellite‐telemetered bears to model transitions between states and thereby explain heterogeneity in recapture probabilities. Our results corroborate prior findings that the SBS subpopulation experienced low survival from 2003 to 2006. Survival improved modestly from 2006 to 2008 and afterward rebounded to comparatively high levels for the remainder of the study, except in 2012. Abundance moved in concert with survival throughout the study period, declining substantially from 2003 and 2006 and afterward fluctuating with lower variation around an average of 565 bears (95% Bayesian credible interval [340, 920]) through 2015. Even though abundance was comparatively stable and without sustained trend from 2006 to 2015, polar bears in the Alaska SBS were less abundant over that period than at any time since passage of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act. The potential for recovery is likely limited by the degree of habitat degradation the subpopulation has experienced, and future reductions in carrying capacity are expected given current projections for continued climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animals responding to habitat loss and fragmentation may increase their home ranges to offset declines in localized resources or they may decrease their home ranges and switch to alternative resources. In many regions of the Arctic, polar bears (Ursus maritimus) exhibit some of the largest home ranges of any quadrupedal mammal. Polar bears are presently experiencing a rapid decline in Arctic sea ice extent and a change in sea ice composition. For the Southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation of polar bears, this has resulted in a divergent movement pattern where most of the subpopulation remains on the sea ice in the summer melt season while the remainder move to land. We evaluated the effects of summer land use and maternal denning on the annual and seasonal utilization distribution size (i.e., home range) of adult female polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation over 30 yr (1986–2016) during a period of rapid sea ice decline. For bears that remained on the summer sea ice, model‐derived mean annual utilization distributions were 64% larger in 1999–2016 (x̄ = 176,000 km2) relative to 1986–1998 (x̄ = 107,000 km2). This increase was primarily driven by increases in summer utilization distributions that encompassed increased amounts of open water and decreased amounts of preferred sea ice. The mean centroid of summer utilization distributions for bears that remained on the sea ice was 193 km further north‐northeast in 1999–2016. In contrast, bears that summered on land during 1999–2016 exhibited 88% smaller mean annual utilization distribution sizes (x̄ = 22,000 km2) relative to bears that remained on the summer sea ice during the same period. Our findings highlight the impacts of sea ice declines on polar bear space use and the increasing importance of land as an alternative summer refuge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Continued Arctic warming and sea‐ice loss will have important implications for the conservation of ringed seals, a highly ice‐dependent species. A better understanding of their spatial ecology will help characterize emerging ecological trends and inform management decisions. We deployed satellite transmitters on ringed seals in the summers of 2011, 2014, and 2016 near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, to monitor their movements, diving, and haul‐out behavior. We present analyses of tracking and dive data provided by 17 seals that were tracked until at least January of the following year. Seals mostly ranged north of Utqiaġvik in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas during summer before moving into the southern Chukchi and Bering Seas during winter. In all seasons, ringed seals occupied a diversity of habitats and spatial distributions, from near shore and localized, to far offshore and wide‐ranging in drifting sea ice. Continental shelf waters were occupied for >96% of tracking days, during which repetitive diving (suggestive of foraging) primarily to the seafloor was the most frequent activity. From mid‐summer to early fall, 12 seals made ~1‐week forays off‐shelf to the deep Arctic Basin, most reaching the retreating pack‐ice, where they spent most of their time hauled out. Diel activity patterns suggested greater allocation of foraging efforts to midday hours. Haul‐out patterns were complementary, occurring mostly at night until April‐May when midday hours were preferred. Ringed seals captured in 2011—concurrent with an unusual mortality event that affected all ice‐seal species—differed morphologically and behaviorally from seals captured in other years. Speculations about the physiology of molting and its role in energetics, habitat use, and behavior are discussed; along with possible evidence of purported ringed seal ecotypes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenhouse‐gas‐induced warming in the Arctic has caused declines in sea ice extent and changed its composition, raising concerns by all circumpolar nations for polar bear conservation.Negative impacts have been observed in three well‐studied polar bear subpopulations. Most subpopulations, however, receive little or no direct monitoring, hence, resource selection functions (RSF) may provide a useful proxy of polar bear distributions. However, the efficacy of RSFs constructed from past data, that is, reference RSFs, may be degraded under contemporary conditions, especially in a rapidly changing environment.We assessed published Arctic‐wide reference RSFs using tracking data from adult female polar bears captured in the Beaufort Sea. We compared telemetry‐derived seasonal distributions of polar bears to RSF‐defined optimal sea ice habitat during the period of RSF model development, 1985–1995, and two subsequent periods with diminished sea ice: 1996–2006 and 2007–2016. From these comparisons, we assessed the applicability of the reference RSFs for contemporary polar bear conservation.In the two decades following the 1985–1995 reference period, use and availability of optimal habitat by polar bears declined during the ice melt, ice minimum, and ice growth seasons. During the ice maximum season (i.e., winter), polar bears used the best habitat available, which changed relatively little across the three decades of study. During the ice melt, ice minimum, and ice growth seasons, optimal habitat in areas used by polar bears decreased and was displaced north and east of the Alaska Beaufort Sea coast. As optimal habitat diminished in these seasons, polar bears expanded their range and occupied greater areas of suboptimal habitat.Synthesis and applications: Sea ice declines due to climate change continue to challenge polar bears and their conservation. The distribution of Southern Beaufort Sea polar bears remained similar during the ice maximum season, so the reference RSFs developed from data collected >20 years ago continue to accurately model their winter distribution. In contrast, reference RSFs for the ice transitional and minimum seasons showed diminished predictive efficacy but were useful in revealing that contemporary polar bears have been increasingly forced to use suboptimal habitats during those seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A full understanding of population dynamics depends not only on estimation of mechanistic contributions of recruitment and survival, but also knowledge about the ecological processes that drive each of these vital rates. The process of recruitment in particular may be protracted over several years, and can depend on numerous ecological complexities until sexually mature adulthood is attained. We addressed long-term declines (23 breeding seasons, 1992-2014) in the per capita production of young by both Ross's Geese ( Chen rossii) and Lesser Snow Geese ( Chen caerulescens caerulescens) nesting at Karrak Lake in Canada's central Arctic. During this period, there was a contemporaneous increase from 0.4 to 1.1 million adults nesting at this colony. We evaluated whether (1) density-dependent nutritional deficiencies of pre-breeding females or (2) phenological mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality, inferred from NDVI on the brood-rearing areas, may have been behind decadal declines in the per capita production of goslings. We found that, in years when pre-breeding females arrived to the nesting grounds with diminished nutrient reserves, the proportional composition of young during brood-rearing was reduced for both species. Furthermore, increased mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality contributed additively to further declines in gosling production, in addition to declines caused by delayed nesting with associated subsequent negative effects on clutch size and nest success. The degree of mismatch increased over the course of our study because of advanced vegetation phenology without a corresponding advance in Goose nesting phenology. Vegetation phenology was significantly earlier in years with warm surface air temperatures measured in spring (i.e., 25 May-30 June). We suggest that both increased phenological mismatch and reduced nutritional condition of arriving females were behind declines in population-level recruitment, leading to the recent attenuation in population growth of Snow Geese. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective conservation planning requires understanding and ranking threats to wildlife populations. We developed a Bayesian network model to evaluate the relative influence of environmental and anthropogenic stressors, and their mitigation, on the persistence of polar bears ( Ursus maritimus). Overall sea ice conditions, affected by rising global temperatures, were the most influential determinant of population outcomes. Accordingly, unabated rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations was the dominant influence leading to worsened population outcomes, with polar bears in three of four ecoregions reaching a dominant probability of decreased or greatly decreased by the latter part of this century. Stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations by mid-century delayed the greatly reduced state by ≈25 yr in two ecoregions. Prompt and aggressive mitigation of emissions reduced the probability of any regional population becoming greatly reduced by up to 25%. Marine prey availability, linked closely to sea ice trend, had slightly less influence on outcome state than sea ice availability itself. Reduced mortality from hunting and defense of life and property interactions resulted in modest declines in the probability of a decreased or greatly decreased population outcome. Minimizing other stressors such as trans-Arctic shipping, oil and gas exploration, and contaminants had a negligible effect on polar bear outcomes, although the model was not well-informed with respect to the potential influence of these stressors. Adverse consequences of loss of sea ice habitat became more pronounced as the summer ice-free period lengthened beyond four months, which could occur in most of the Arctic basin after mid-century if GHG emissions are not promptly reduced. Long-term conservation of polar bears would be best supported by holding global mean temperature to ≤ 2°C above preindustrial levels. Until further sea ice loss is stopped, management of other stressors may serve to slow the transition of populations to progressively worsened outcomes, and improve the prospects for their long-term persistence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark-recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25-50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606-1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Growth rings in two Pacific Arctic marine bivalves are annual and robustly delineated. • Growth rings were crossdated to form multi-decadal length chronologies. • Bivalves grew faster in warmer years with less sea ice. • These bivalves can generate long-term ecological baselines in the Pacific Arctic. The Pacific Arctic region has experienced, and is projected to continue experiencing, rapid climate change. Large uncertainties exist in our understanding of the impact these physical changes have on the region's ecology. This is, in part, due to the lack of long-term data. Here we investigate bivalve mollusc growth increment width chronologies (sclerochronologies) to develop a long-term biological data series in an Arctic species and address the hypothesis that benthic production in the Pacific Arctic region is in decline with implications for predators (e.g., walrus, whales, seals, and sea ducks). Growth increments formed in the shells of two bivalve mollusc species, Astarte borealis and Liocyma fluctuosa, were examined using conventional sclerochronological techniques. The A. borealis and L. fluctuosa samples exhibited measured longevities of >148 and >18 years, respectively, in the coastal waters of Alaska's Chukchi Sea. Dendrochronology crossdating techniques facilitated the development of two robust (expressed population signal > 0.85) independent growth increment width chronologies. These chronologies provide evidence of the growth conditions through time for each species (1985–2015 for A. borealis and 1997–2014 for L. fluctuosa). Linear regression analyses identified that both species grew more rapidly in years with warmer sea surface temperature and lower sea ice concentration. The results provide evidence that benthic ecosystems are benefiting from the warmer conditions and reduced sea ice that have accompanied recent Arctic climate trends. This result is encouraging for benthic predators in the eastern Chukchi Sea as it alleviates the concern that their benthic prey has already become food limited by weakened pelagic-benthic coupling. More broadly, this initial A. borealis chronology is among the longest biological data series for any Arctic species and highlights the feasibility of multicentennial biological data for the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]