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Empirical observations and mathematical models show that climate warming can lead to the northern (or, more generally, poleward) spread of host species ranges and their corresponding diseases. Here, we consider an unexpected possibility whereby climate warming facilitates disease spread in the opposite direction to the directional shift in the host species range. To explore this possibility, we consider two host species, both susceptible to a disease, but spatially isolated due to distinct thermal niches, and where prior to climate warming the disease is endemic in the northern species only. Previous theoretical results show that species distributions can lag behind species thermal niches when climate warming occurs. As such, we hypothesize that climate warming may increase the overlap between northern and southern host species ranges, due to the northern species lagging behind its thermal tolerance limit. To test our hypothesis, we simulate climate warming as a reaction-diffusion equation model with a Susceptible-Infected (SI) epidemiological structure, for two competing species with distinct temperature-dependent niches. We show that climate warming, by shifting both species niches northwards, can facilitate the southward spread of disease, due to increased range overlap between the two populations. As our model is general, our findings may apply to viral, bacterial, and prion diseases that do not have thermal tolerance limits and are inextricably linked to their hosts distributions, such as the spread of rabies from arctic to red foxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rabies occurs throughout the Arctic, representing an ongoing public health concern for residents of northern communities. The Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) is the main reservoir of the Arctic rabies virus variant, yet little is known about the epidemiology of Arctic rabies, such as the ecological mechanisms driving where and when epizootics in fox populations occur. In this study, we provide the first portrait of the spatio‐temporal spread of rabies across northern Canada. We also explore the impact of seasonal and multiannual dynamics in Arctic fox populations and climatic factors on rabies transmission dynamics. We analysed data on rabies cases collected through passive surveillance systems in the Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut, Nunavik and Labrador from 1953 to 2014. In addition, we analysed a large and unique database of trapped foxes tested for rabies in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut from 1974 to 1984 as part of active surveillance studies. Rabies cases occurred in all Arctic regions of Canada and were relatively synchronous among foxes and dogs (Canis familiaris). This study highlights the spread of Arctic rabies virus variant across northern Canada, with contrasting rabies dynamics between different yet connected areas. Population fluctuations of Arctic fox populations could drive rabies transmission dynamics in a complex way across northern Canada. Furthermore, this study suggests different impacts of climate and sea ice cover on the onset of rabies epizootics in northern Canada. These results lay the groundwork for the development of epidemiological models to better predict the spatio‐temporal dynamics of rabies occurrence in both wild and domestic carnivores, leading to better estimates of human exposure and transmission risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Copyright of Journal of Animal Ecology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The poleward range shift of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) > 1,700 km into the Arctic is one of the most remarkable distribution changes of the early twentieth century. While this expansion threatens a smaller arctic ecological equivalent, the arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), the case became a textbook example of climate‐driven range shifts.We tested this classical climate change hypothesis linked to an important range shift which has attracted little research thus far.We analysed Canadian fur harvest data from the Hudson's Bay Company Archives (14 trading posts; 1926–1950), testing hypotheses based on changes in summer and winter climates. Summer warming might have triggered a bottom‐up increase in ecosystem productivity, while winter warming might have lowered thermal stress, both favouring red fox expansion. Additionally, we evaluated the hypothesis that red fox expansion was driven by the appearance of human sedentary sites (n = 110) likely bringing food subsidies into the unproductive tundra.Analysis of red fox expansion chronologies showed that expansion speed was higher during warmer winters. However, the expansions occurred under both cooling and warming trends, being faster during cooler summers in the Baffin Island region. The increasing proportion of red fox in fox fur harvests was best explained by human activity, while generalized linear mixed models also revealed a marginal effect of warmer winters. Generalized additive models confirmed human presence as the most important factor explaining rates of change in the proportion of red fox in fox fur harvests.Using historical ecology, we disentangled the relative influences of climate change and anthropogenic habitat change, two global drivers that transformed arctic biodiversity during the last century and will likely continue to do so during this century. Anthropogenic food subsidies, which constitute stable food sources, facilitated the invasion of the tundra biome by a new mammalian predator and competitor, with long‐term consequences that still remain to be understood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rabies is a major issue for human and animal health in the Arctic, yet little is known about its epidemiology. In particular, there is an ongoing debate regarding how Arctic rabies persists in its primary reservoir host, the Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), which exists in the ecosystem at very low population densities. To shed light on the mechanisms of rabies persistence in the Arctic, we built a susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model of rabies virus transmission in an Arctic fox population interacting with red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), a rabies host that is increasingly present in the Arctic. The model suggests that rabies cannot be maintained in resource-poor areas of the Arctic, characterized by low Arctic fox density, even in the presence of continuous reintroduction of the virus by infected Arctic foxes from neighbouring regions. However, in populations of relatively high Arctic fox density, rabies persists under conditions of higher transmission rate, prolonged infectious period and for a broad range of incubation periods. Introducing the strong cyclical dynamics of Arctic prey availability makes simulated rabies outbreaks less regular but more intense, with an onset that does not neatly track peaks in Arctic fox density. Finally, interaction between Arctic and red foxes increases the frequency and/or the intensity of rabies outbreaks in the Arctic fox population. Our work suggests that disruption of prey cycles and increasing interactions between Arctic and red foxes due to climate change and northern development may significantly change the epidemiology of rabies across the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change induces species range shifts and population expansion to higher latitudes in response to rising temperatures. One consequence of climate-induced range shifts is an increased sympatry between related but previously isolated species, potentially resulting in interspecific interactions and hybridization. The Arctic is more rapidly affected by climate warming than any region on Earth and resident species may be prone to interspecific hybridization due to the immigration of new colonizing species. The red fox Vulpes vulpes expanded its range into the Arctic during the twentieth century and is now in sympatry with the native Arctic fox Vulpes lagopus in many places. In this context, an Arctic-like fox displaying an unusual reddish winter coat was observed in 2013 in Nunavut, Canada, a phenotype unknown by Inuit people to date. In this study, we assessed the biological origin of this specimen with a multigenic approach using markers located on mitochondrial DNA, sex (X and Y) chromosomes, and autosomes (microsatellites and the melanocortin 1 receptor (MC1R) gene; a gene involved in the color polymorphism in canids). Our comparative analyses with genetic material from Arctic and red foxes displaying 'classic' phenotypes ( N = 14 and 16, respectively) suggested a pure Arctic fox origin of the specimen. Specifically, this fox yielded mtDNA, X-linked, Y-linked, and MC1R alleles specific to Arctic fox. Bayesian genetic assignment based on 16 microsatellite loci assigned it to Arctic fox with high confidence ( q = 99.7%). Thus, a recent hybrid origin for this specimen is excluded. This alternative winter coat color polymorphism in Arctic fox requires further analyses to determine its underlying genetic mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how climate change and increasing human impacts may exert pressure on ecosystems and threaten biodiversity requires efficient monitoring programs. Indicator species have been proposed as useful tools, and predators and their diet may be particularly suitable. The vast and remote arctic tundra represents a good case study as shifts in ecosystem states are presently occurring, and monitoring is a major challenge. Here we assess what stable isotopes reflecting the diet of the arctic fox, a widespread and highly flexible top predator, can contribute to effective monitoring of the vertebrate prey basis of Arctic tundra. We used data collected over 2-5 years from six sites in the Eurasian Arctic and Greenland. Stable isotope signatures of arctic fox winter fur reflected both spatial and temporal variability in the composition of the vertebrate prey basis. Clear contrasts were apparent in the importance of marine resources, as well as of small rodents and their multiannual density fluctuations. Some important resources could however not be separated because of confounding isotopic signatures. Moreover, except for preferred prey, the proportions of prey in the diet may not necessarily reflect the relative importance of species in the community of available prey. Knowing these limitations, we suggest that the arctic fox diet as inferred from stable isotopes could serve as one of several key targets in ecosystem-based monitoring programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tissue-specific stable isotope signatures can provide insights into the trophic ecology of consumers and their roles in food webs. Two parameters are central for making valid inferences based on stable isotopes, isotopic discrimination (difference in isotopic ratio between consumer and its diet) and turnover time (renewal process of molecules in a given tissue usually measured when half of the tissue composition has changed). We investigated simultaneously the effects of age, sex, and diet types on the variation of discrimination and half-life in nitrogen and carbon stable isotopes (&dgr;15N and &dgr;13C, respectively) in five tissues (blood cells, plasma, muscle, liver, nail, and hair) of a top predator, the arctic fox Vulpes lagopus. Methodology/Principal Findings: We fed 40 farmed foxes (equal numbers of adults and yearlings of both sexes) with diet capturing the range of resources used by their wild counterparts. We found that, for a single species, six tissues, and three diet types, the range of discrimination values can be almost as large as what is known at the scale of the whole mammalian or avian class. Discrimination varied depending on sex, age, tissue, and diet types, ranging from 0.3‰ to 5.3‰ (mean = 2.6‰) for &dgr;15N and from 0.2‰ to 2.9‰ (mean = 0.9‰) for &dgr;13C. We also found an impact of population structure on d15N half-life in blood cells. Varying across individuals, &dgr;15N half-life in plasma (6 to 10 days) was also shorter than for &dgr;13C (14 to 22 days), though &dgr;15N and &dgr;13C half-lives are usually considered as equal. Conclusion/Significance: Overall, our multi-factorial experiment revealed that at least six levels of isotopic variations could co-occur in the same population. Our experimental analysis provides a framework for quantifying multiple sources of variation in isotopic discrimination and half-life that needs to be taken into account when designing and analysing ecological field studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Habitat heterogeneity and predator behaviour can strongly affect predator–prey interactions but these factors are rarely considered simultaneously, especially when systems encompass multiple predators and prey. 2. In the Arctic, greater snow geese Anser caerulescens atlanticus L. nest in two structurally different habitats: wetlands that form intricate networks of water channels, and mesic tundra where such obstacles are absent. In this heterogeneous environment, goose eggs are exposed to two types of predators: the arctic fox Vulpes lagopus L. and a diversity of avian predators. We hypothesized that, contrary to birds, the hunting ability of foxes would be impaired by the structurally complex wetland habitat, resulting in a lower predation risk for goose eggs. 3. In addition, lemmings, the main prey of foxes, show strong population cycles. We thus further examined how their fluctuations influenced the interaction between habitat heterogeneity and fox predation on goose eggs. 4. An experimental approach with artificial nests suggested that foxes were faster than avian predators to find unattended goose nests in mesic tundra whereas the reverse was true in wetlands. Foxes spent 3·5 times more time between consecutive attacks on real goose nests in wetlands than in mesic tundra. Their attacks on goose nests were also half as successful in wetlands than in mesic tundra whereas no difference was found for avian predators. 5. Nesting success in wetlands (65%) was higher than in mesic tundra (56%) but the difference between habitats increased during lemming crashes (15%) compared to other phases of the cycle (5%). Nests located at the edge of wetland patches were also less successful than central ones, suggesting a gradient in accessibility of goose nests in wetlands for foxes. 6. Our study shows that the structural complexity of wetlands decreases predation risk from foxes but not avian predators in arctic-nesting birds. Our results also demonstrate that cyclic lemming populations indirectly alter the spatial distribution of productive nests due to a complex interaction between habitat structure, prey-switching and foraging success of foxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cache recovery is critical for evolution of hoarding behaviour, because the energy invested in caching may be lost if consumers other than the hoarders benefit from the cached food. By raiding food caches, animals may exploit the caching habits of others, that should respond by actively defending their caches. The arctic fox ( Alopex lagopus) is the main predator of lemmings and goose eggs in the Canadian High Arctic and stores much of its prey in the ground. Common ravens ( Corvus corax) are not as successful as foxes in taking eggs from goose nests. This generalist avian predator regularly uses innovation and opportunism to survive in many environments. Here, we provide the first report that ravens can successfully raid food cached by foxes, and that foxes may defend their caches from ravens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]