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Biocrusts are critical biological components of drylands and play an important role in soil carbon (C) cycling. However, the effect of biocrusts on soil CO 2 exchange across global gradients of temperature and moisture is poorly understood. Moreover, their response to climate change remains highly uncertain. Bayesian hierarchical meta-analyses were performed on 47 published studies to quantify the impact of biocrusts on net soil exchange (NSE) of carbon- the difference between respiration and photosynthesis. Meta-analyses were also used on 23 studies to examine the effects of experimental warming on NSE in biocrusts. Meta-regressions further explored the thermal and wetness sensitivities of biocrust NSE and potential adaptation of biocrust responses to climate change. The development of biocrusts in dryland soils significantly increased NSE by 66.5 [22.2, 112.2] g C m−2yr−1, despite seasonal fluctuations, indicating a net loss of carbon to the atmosphere. Experimental warming, on average, increased biocrust NSE by 22.9 [-0.1, 40.8] g C m−2yr−1 per °C. However, across the spatial climate gradient, aridity limited the effects of warming, while high temperature decreased the thermal sensitivity of biocrust NSE, thus supporting the thermal adaptation of biocrusts. These results emphasize the critical role of biocrusts in modulating soil carbon exchange in response to climate warming across drylands, with particularly high thermal sensitivity in cool and moist regions. This highlights the need to incorporate biocrusts into global carbon budgets and models for a comprehensive understanding of their impact on the carbon cycle. • Biocrusts increase soil CO2 efflux by 66.5 g C m-2yr-1 in drylands worldwide. • Climate warming increases CO2 efflux in biocrust soil by 22.9 g C m-2yr-1 per °C. • Thermal adaptation reduces thermal sensitivity of biocrust carbon efflux. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Global climate change may greatly alter the structure and stability of drylands, creating an urgent need to recover their functions and services. Biological soil crust (biocrust), an interface between the soil and atmosphere, plays a crucial role in ecohydrological processes, and thus in influencing the restoration dynamics of dryland ecosystems. Previous studies have generally investigated the influences of biocrust on ecohydrological processes as an exogenous factor. However, it remains unclear how biocrusts, as an integral part of many ecosystems (i.e., as a system state variable), will change under global climate change.Methods: This study developed a new ecohydrological model with biocrust cover as a system state variable, and explored the response of dryland ecosystems to altered rainfall regimes.Results: Biocrust cover responded with an inverted U-shaped curve relationship to increasing annual rainfall and linearly to increasing rainfall frequency. Vascular plant (grass and shrub) cover showed an increasing trend with increasing annual rainfall and a decreasing trend to increasing rainfall frequency. Therefore, biocrust usually dominated over vascular plants (i.e., high biocrust cover and low vascular plant cover) under low annual rainfall. Furthermore, an increasing rainfall frequency would amplify the range of environmental (rainfall) conditions dominated by biocrust from an annual rainfall 0-100 mm under a rainfall frequency of 0.025 day−1 to 0-500 mm under a rainfall frequency of 1 day−1.Conclusions: This study developed a model framework to predict dryland dynamics for surfaces covered by biocrust under global climate change. We suggest that restoration efforts could target at biocrust-dominated state in deserts, especially in a (future) drier climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]