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This paper looks into the Greek-Turkish arms race a decade after an earlier contribution to the issue that relied heavily on artificial neural networks. The time period between the two papers contributes to the reliability of the results derived, not just by increasing the number of observations, but also mainly by incorporating the progress made in the realm of artificial intelligence. The focus on the case of both countries unlike the paper mentioned above that dealt with just the Greek side provides ample room for comparative purposes regarding the determinants of defense expenditure on both sides. The results derived in terms of input significance estimation support the findings of the earlier research as indicated above, pointing to the leading role of the demographic preponderance of Turkey over Greece. The paper also points to the fact that 10 years later, Turkey continues to set the arms race rules against its rival by determining the defense expenditure of Greece, whereas the role of the latter in affecting the military spending of Turkey is non-existent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing Turkish-Greek antagonism has triggered the interest of defense economists to investigate the various aspects of the arms race between Turkey and Greece. However, empirical studies examining the long-run relationship between the military expenditures of the two countries offer little evidence in favor of such an interaction. This paper attributes the poor results of the previous literature to the adherence to linear cointegration techniques and argues that if the adjustment towards long-run equilibrium is asymmetric, nonlinear co-integration models should be employed. Accordingly, this paper considers threshold autoregressive (TAR) and momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) models as alternative adjustment processes for the cointegration relationship, following Enders and Siklos (2001). The results indicate that the relationship between the variables can be characterized by a threshold cointegration specification following an M-TAR type adjustment process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the controversy that prevails concerning the extent to which an arms race is going on between Greece and Turkey. An examination of the recent contributions on this major issue beginning the year 2000 onwards suggests that the pronounced discrepancies among the conclusions drawn in these papers may be attributed to two major reasons among others: The effectiveness of the techniques employed, as well as the inadequacy of certain policy recipes to treat actual defence incidents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The issue that this paper tackles is the assessment of the relative security benefits that Cyprus and Greece derive in the context of their cooperation on defence matters. This form of cooperation, known as the 'Integrated Defence Space Doctrine', aims at defending their interests in the Aegean Sea and the broader East Mediterranean theatre. The paper relies heavily on earlier research on this topic, which deals with the Greek-Cypriot alliance facing an arms race against Turkey, and uses a coefficient especially designed to assess the optimal levels of security and the associated defence expenditure of the two allies. A comparison of the relative security coefficient values for the two allies suggests that the security benefit that Greece derives thanks to its alliance with Cyprus exceeds the corresponding Cypriot benefit by far. Given the importance assigned to human resources by this index, in conjunction with the demographic problems of Greece, this conclusion justifies the recent Greek defence policy revision, emphasizing quality, capital equipment and flexibility of forces. This revision aims at satisfying the security requirements of the alliance and the increasing demands of an arms race against Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This scope of this paper is to forecast the extent to which a settlement of the Cyprus issue may be possible given the decisions taken during the Copenhagen EU summit. It aims, in addition, at investigating the possibilities of improvement in Greek-Turkish relations which may lead, in turn, to reducing the arms race between the two countries. The paper uses a Genetically Evolved Certainty Neuron Fuzzy Cognitive algorithm to consider a number of scenarios examining the possible reactions of all sides involved in the Cyprus issue, namely Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, the Turkish-Cypriot community that the international environment. All simulation exercises suggest that the Greek and the Cypriot side should not necessarily rely on the decisions taken during the Copenhagen summit conference. The forecasts point out, in addition, that the optimism of the Greek government concerning the outlook of its relations with Turkey, and a subsequent reduction of the arms race against it, is far from being justified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Richardson's action-reaction model of an arms race has prompted a considerable body of research that has attempted to empirically estimate such models. In general these attempts have been unsuccessful. This paper provides an extensive reconsideration of the estimation issues and using some recent developments in time-series econometrics, provides a comprehensive analysis of data for Greece and Turkey. It finds evidence of some form of cointegration between the military expenditures in both countries, but not of Richardson arms race type. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reviews the literature on the economics of military affairs in Turkey and Greece as of December 1999. Arms race models; Models of the demand for military expenditure; Models measuring the economic impact of military expenditure.

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Arms races are linked in the public conscience to potential violence. Following gas discoveries in eastern Mediterranean, Greece and Turkey nearly came to blows in August 2020 and both states have enacted military expansion plans, further risking escalation. We present a novel approach to study the effect of military build-ups on dispute intensity, using monthly data on Turkish incursions into Greek-claimed airspace. Because airspace claims feature strongly in the dispute, these contestations represent an appropriate measure of the intensity with which Turkey pursues the conflict. Theoretically, we suggest that bilateral factors drive this intensity. We argue that increased Greek military capabilities deter incursions whereas increased Turkish military capabilities fuel them. Results from time-series models support the second expectation. Consequently, the study provides a novel methodological approach to studying interstate conflict intensity and shines new light on escalation dynamics in the Greek-Turkish dispute. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two NATO allies, Greece and Turkey, have also been considered potential threats to each other. Thus, these countries' military spending has been subject to many academic studies to observe if these potential threats trigger the military spending of both countries. Nonetheless, most regression results of those studies did not find a significant result supporting the arms race between the two countries. The current study provides an additional empirical evaluation of military spending of both countries by using an annual data set running from 1958 to 2004. The study is in spirit of Smith et al. (2000) employing a Markov switching approach, but utilizing a longer period. A Markov switching approach allows estimation of military spending of each country if both sides compete with each other to have higher spending or if they behave independently of each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent empirical literature on the presence of a long-term arms race between Turkey and Greece is inconclusive. This contribution attempts to determine whether Turkish and Greek defense expenditures in general and military equipment spending and imports in particular vary in response to the nature (conflict/harmony) of bilateral relations in the post-1980 era. A chronology of events is provided and data problems are assessed. With reservations concerning reliability and validity, the results of statistical tests do not support the general hypothesis that bilateral relations are reflected in the arming indicators for both Turkey and Greece in the last two decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduces a relative security measure to evaluate the impact of arms races on the military security of allies. Arms race between Greece and Turkey; Benefits of introducing such measure and applying it using neural networks; Multiply activated multi-layer perceptron neural network architecture; Simulation results of the networks forecasts of the measure in the context of various arms race scenarios.