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Objectives: Extracellular vesicles (EVs) are abundant in body fluids, contributing to intercellular signalling by transferring cargo that includes microRNAs (miRs)-themselves implicated in pathobiology. For the first time we evaluated the potential of EV miRs to contribute diagnostic information in early RA, predict methotrexate (MTX) efficacy or shed light on the drug's mechanism of action., Methods: Seven hundred and ninety-eight miRs isolated from serum-derived EVs of 46 patients with untreated RA, 23 with untreated polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR; inflammatory disease control group) and 12 in whom significant inflammatory disease had been excluded (non-inflammatory controls; NICs) were profiled (NanoString); the same measurements were made for RA patients after 6 months' MTX treatment. Analyses took multiple testing into account., Results: Twenty-eight EV miRs were robustly differentially expressed between early RA (but not PMR) patients and NICs after correction for age and sex, suggesting discriminatory value. Cross-validated partial least squares-discriminant analysis also indicated the predictive potential of a distinct baseline EV miR signature with respect to MTX-induced remission at 6 months. The change in expression of 13 miRs over the course of MTX treatment differed significantly between responders and non-responders, and four of those exhibiting increased relative abundance amongst responders have known roles in regulating the pathogenic potential of synovial fibroblasts, namely miR-212-3p, miR-338-5p, miR-410-3p and miR-537., Conclusion: Our data highlight the potential of serum EV miRs as diagnostic and therapeutic biomarkers, highlighting a novel potential mechanism by which MTX may exert its therapeutic effect in early RA that warrants further investigation., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Objectives: Biologic DMARDs (bDMARDs) are widely used in patients with RA, but response to bDMARDs is heterogeneous. The objective of this work was to identify pretreatment proteomic biomarkers associated with RA clinical outcome measures in patients starting bDMARDs., Methods: Sequential window acquisition of all theoretical fragment ion spectra mass spectrometry (SWATH-MS) was used to generate spectral maps of sera from patients with RA before and after 3 months of treatment with the bDMARD etanercept. Protein levels were regressed against RA clinical outcome measures, i.e. 28-joint DAS (DAS28) and its subcomponents and DAS28 <2.6 (i.e. remission). The proteins with the strongest evidence for association were analysed in an independent, replication dataset. Finally, subnetwork analysis was carried out using the Disease Module Detection algorithm and biological plausibility of identified proteins was assessed by enrichment analysis., Results: A total of 180 patients with RA were included in the discovery dataset and 58 in the validation dataset from a UK-based prospective multicentre study. Ten individual proteins were found to be significantly associated with RA clinical outcome measures. The association of T-complex protein 1 subunit η with DAS28 remission was replicated in an independent cohort. Subnetwork analysis of the 10 proteins from the regression analysis identified the ontological theme, with the strongest associations being with acute phase and acute inflammatory responses., Conclusion: This longitudinal study of 180 patients with RA commencing etanercept has identified several putative protein biomarkers of treatment response to this drug, one of which was replicated in an independent cohort., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Objectives: Long-term outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) depend on early and effective disease control. Methotrexate (MTX) remains the first-line disease modifying therapy, however there are no biomarkers with which to identify those most likely to achieve remission. To address this unmet need we explored metabolic pathways involved in MTX mechanism of action within circulating CD4+T cells in a cohort of treatment naive patients with early RA., Methods: Purified CD4+T cells were isolated from peripheral blood of 68 patients with early RA commencing MTX. The expression of a range of putative MTX metabolism and mechanism of action targets were explored by flow-cytometry and transcriptional analysis. From these data significant predictors of Disease Activity Score 28-C reactive protein (DAS28-CRP) remission (<2.4 at 6 months) were determined by logistic regression (clinical; flow-cytometry data) and linear modelling (gene expression data)., Results: Low baseline DAS28-CRP was associated with remission at 6 months (p=0.02). Expression of the ectonucleotidase CD39, involved in ATP-ADP conversion during adenosine synthesis, was higher on CD4+CD25 High regulatory T cells at baseline in those achieving remission (molecules of equivalent fluorescence 1264 vs 847; p=0.007). Expression of other adenosine signalling elements in CD4+T cells were also upregulated at baseline in patients achieving remission: AMPD1 (p<0.001), ADORA2b (p=0.039) and ADORA3 (p=0.047). When combined into a single predictive metric, a combination of these variables outperformed baseline DAS28-CRP in prediction of early remission (area under the curve 0.92 vs 0.67, p=0.001) CONCLUSIONS: Adenosine signalling is important in the achievement of early remission with MTX in RA and biomarkers of adenosine activity may hold utility for the stratification of therapy in early disease., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: Interventions aimed at increasing TNF-α inhibitor serum drug levels (SDLs) may improve treatment response; however, previous studies suggesting SDL cut-offs have not accounted for treatment adherence. The aim of this study was to establish the relationship between adalimumab/certolizumab SDLs and EULAR good vs non-/moderate response and to define SDL cut-offs associated with good response in fully adherent patients., Methods: In a prospective observational study, 475 patients with RA were treated with certolizumab (n = 192) or adalimumab (n = 283). At baseline and 3, 6 and 12 months, patients had 28-joint DAS, self-reported treatment adherence and SDLs measured. Fully adherent patients were analysed as a subgroup. Follow-up data at 3, 6 and 12 months were analysed separately. Median SDLs were compared in good vs non-/moderate response patients and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were used to establish cut-off SDLs., Results: Fully adherent good responders had significantly higher median adalimumab/certolizumab SDLs compared with non-/moderate responders (P = 0.04 and P = 0.0005, respectively). ROC analysis reported 3 month non-trough adalimumab SDLs discriminated good vs non-/moderate response with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.63 (95% CI 0.52, 0.75), with a cut-off of 7.5 mg/l being 39.1% specific and 80.9% sensitive. Similarly, 3 month non-trough certolizumab SDLs discriminated good vs non-/moderate response with an AUC of 0.65 (95% CI 0.51, 0.78), with a cut-off of 26.0 mg/l being 43.9% specific and 77.8% sensitive., Conclusion: In fully adherent patients, higher SDLs are detected in good responders, suggesting that interventions to improve SDLs, such as encouraging adherence, could improve treatment response. The 3 month non-trough SDL cut-offs of 7.5 mg/l for adalimumab and 26.0 mg/l for certolizumab may be useful in clinical practice., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Objectives: The inflammatory protein calprotectin (MRP8/14) has been identified as a promising biomarker of treatment response in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Our aim was to test MRP8/14 as a biomarker of response to tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-inhibitors in the largest RA cohort to date and to compare with C-reactive protein (CRP)., Methods: Serum MRP8/14 was measured in 470 patients with RA about to commence treatment with adalimumab (n=196) or etanercept (n=274). Additionally, MRP8/14 was measured in the 3-month sera of 179 adalimumab-treated patients. Response was determined using European League against Rheumatism (EULAR) response criteria calculated using the traditional 4-component (4C) DAS28-CRP and alternate validated versions using 3-component (3C) and 2-component (2C), clinical disease activity index (CDAI) improvement criteria and change in individual outcome measures. Logistic/linear regression models were fitted for response outcome., Results: In the 3C and 2C models, patients with RA were 1.92 (CI: 1.04 to 3.54) and 2.03 (CI: 1.09 to 3.78) times more likely to be classified as EULAR responders if they had high (75th quartile) pre-treatment levels of MRP8/14 compared with low (25th quartile). No significant associations were observed for the 4C model. When only using CRP as a predictor, in the 3C and 2C analyses, patients above the 75th quartile were 3.79 (CI: 1.81 to 7.93) and 3.58 (CI: 1.74 to 7.35) times more likely to be EULAR responders and addition of MRP8/14 did not significantly improve model fit (p values=0.62 and 0.80, respectively). No significant associations were observed in the 4C analysis. Exclusion of CRP from the outcome measure (CDAI) did not result in any significant associations with MRP8/14 (OR 1.00 (CI: 0.99 to 1.01), suggesting that the associations were due to the correlation with CRP and that there is no additional utility of MRP8/14 beyond use of CRP in patients with RA starting TNFi therapy., Conclusion: Beyond correlation with CRP, we found no evidence to suggest that MRP8/14 explains additional variability in response to TNFi in patients with RA over and above CRP alone., Competing Interests: Competing interests: KLH reports grants from BMS and Pfizer, and honoraria from AbbVie for speaking at an educational meeting, outside the submitted work. AB is an NIHR Senior Investigator and has received grants from BMS, Pfizer, Galapagos and Scipher Medicine as well as honoraria from Roche-Chugai for speaking at educational meetings. SV and DP have received grants from BMS outside the submitted work. AWM is an NIHR Senior Investigator and has received grants or honoraria on behalf of the University of Leeds from Roche-Chugai, Kiniska Pharmaceuticals, Regeneron, Sanofi, Vifor, Abbvie and GlaxoSmithKline for work unrelated to this manuscript. JDI has received research funding from GSK, Janssen and Pfizer, and speaker/consultancy fees from AbbVie, BMS, Gilead, Roche and UCB outside of this submitted work. KLH is an Associate Editor at the Annals of Rheumatic Diseases but had no role in the peer review of this work. All other authors declare no other competing interests., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: No reliable biomarkers to predict response to TNF inhibitors (TNFi) in RA patients currently exist. The aims of this study were to replicate changes in gene co-expression modules that were previously reported in response to TNFi therapy in RA; to test if changes in module expression are specific to TNFi therapy; and to determine whether module expression transitions towards a disease-free state in responding patients., Method: Published transcriptomic data from the whole blood of disease-free controls (n = 10) and RA patients, treated with the TNFi adalimumab (n = 70) or methotrexate (n = 85), were studied. Treatment response was assessed using the EULAR response criteria following 3 or 6 months of treatment. Change in transcript expression between pre- and post-treatment was recorded for previously defined modules. Linear mixed models tested whether modular expression after treatment transitioned towards a disease-free state., Results: For 25 of the 27 modules, change in expression between pre- and post-treatment in the adalimumab cohort replicated published findings. Of these 25 modules, six transitioned towards a disease-free state by 3 months (P < 0.05), irrespective of clinical response. One module (M3.2), related to inflammation and TNF biology, significantly correlated with response to adalimumab. Similar patterns of modular expression, with reduced magnitude, were observed in the methotrexate cohort., Conclusion: This study provides independent validation of changes in module expression in response to therapy in RA. However, these effects are not specific to TNFi. Further studies are required to determine whether specific modules could assist molecular classification of therapeutic response., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Aim: TNF inhibitor drugs are a treatment option for rheumatoid arthritis, but response is not universal. Response is typically measured using the composite 4-component (4C) disease activity score 28 (DAS28) which contains more subjective measures. This study used a validated 2-component (2C) DAS28 score to determine whether SNPs associated with response were replicated in the UK population. Materials & methods: A literature review identified TNF inhibitor response SNPs. Linear regression was conducted to replicate associations with 4C or 2C-DAS28 response. Results: Eighteen independent SNPs were analyzed in 1828 patients. One and four associations with 4C and 2C-DAS28 response respectively were identified (p ≤ 0.05). Conclusion: Further genetic associations were replicated using the 2C-DAS28 which may reflect the objective nature of 2C-AS28.

Objective: To determine whether using a reweighted disease activity score that better reflects joint synovitis, i.e., the 2-component Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28) (based on swollen joint count and C-reactive protein level), produces more clinically relevant treatment outcome trajectories compared to the standard 4-component DAS28., Methods: Latent class mixed modeling of response to biologic treatment was applied to 2,991 rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients in whom treatment with a biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug was being initiated within the Biologics in Rheumatoid Arthritis Genetics and Genomics Study Syndicate cohort, using both 4-component and 2-component DAS28 scores as outcome measures. Patient groups with similar trajectories were compared in terms of pretreatment baseline characteristics (including disability and comorbidities) and follow-up characteristics (including antidrug antibody events, adherence to treatments, and blood drug levels). We compared the trajectories obtained using the 4- and 2-component scores to determine which characteristics were better captured by each., Results: Using the 4-component DAS28, we identified 3 trajectory groups, which is consistent with previous findings. We showed that the 4-component DAS28 captures information relating to depression. Using the 2-component DAS28, 7 trajectory groups were identified; among them, distinct groups of nonresponders had a higher incidence of respiratory comorbidities and a higher proportion of antidrug antibody events. We also identified a group of patients for whom the 2-component DAS28 scores remained relatively low; this group included a high percentage of patients who were nonadherent to treatment. This highlights the utility of both the 4- and 2-component DAS28 for monitoring different components of disease activity., Conclusion: Here we show that the 2-component modified DAS28 defines important biologic and clinical phenotypes associated with treatment outcome in RA and characterizes important underlying response mechanisms to biologic drugs., (© 2020 The Authors. Arthritis & Rheumatology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American College of Rheumatology.)

Objectives: Identifying blood-based biomarkers that predict treatment response in RA is a clinical priority. We investigated differential DNA methylation as a candidate biomarker of response for the first-line drug used in RA, MTX., Methods: DNA methylation was measured in DNA samples from individuals recruited to the Rheumatoid Arthritis Medication Study. Differentially methylated positions were compared between whole blood samples collected at baseline and at 4 weeks from patients who, by 6 months, had a good (n = 34) or poor response (n = 34) to MTX using linear modelling, adjusting for gender, age, cell composition, baseline 28-joint disease activity score (DAS28) and smoking status. Analyses also compared methylation with changes in DAS28 and changes in swollen joint count and tender joint count, and changes in CRP over the initial 6 months after MTX commencement. Differentially methylated positions showing significant differences with any response parameter were tested using pyrosequencing in an independent group of 100 patients from the Rheumatoid Arthritis Medication Study., Results: In the discovery group, two CpG sites showed methylation changes at 4 weeks associated with clinical EULAR response by 6 months. Significant changes in methylation for three differentially methylated positions associated with change in tender joint counts, three with change in swollen joint count and a further four with change in CRP. Of the 12 CpGs, four showed replicated association in an independent dataset of samples from the Rheumatoid Arthritis Medication Study., Conclusion: These data represent an advance on current practice by contributing to a personalized medicine strategy allowing an escalation or change in therapy as early as 4 weeks., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Background: Previous studies of radiological damage in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have used candidate-gene approaches, or evaluated single genome-wide association studies (GWAS). We undertook the first meta-analysis of GWAS of RA radiological damage to: (1) identify novel genetic loci for this trait; and (2) test previously validated variants., Methods: Seven GWAS (2,775 RA cases, of a range of ancestries) were combined in a meta-analysis. Radiological damage was assessed using modified Larsen scores, Sharp van Der Heijde scores, and erosive status. Single nucleotide polymophsim (SNP) associations with radiological damage were tested at a single time-point using regression models. Primary analyses included age and disease duration as covariates. Secondary analyses also included rheumatoid factor (RF). Meta-analyses were undertaken in trans-ethnic and European-only cases., Results: In the trans-ethnic primary meta-analysis, one SNP (rs112112734) in close proximity to HLA-DRB1, and strong linkage disequilibrium with the shared-epitope, attained genome-wide significance (P = 4.2x10-8). In the secondary analysis (adjusting for RF) the association was less significant (P = 1.7x10-6). In both trans-ethnic primary and secondary meta-analyses 14 regions contained SNPs with associations reaching P<5x10-6; in the European primary and secondary analyses 13 and 10 regions contained SNPs reaching P<5x10-6, respectively. Of the previously validated SNPs for radiological progression, only rs660895 (tagging HLA-DRB1*04:01) attained significance (P = 1.6x10-5) and had a consistent direction of effect across GWAS., Conclusions: Our meta-analysis confirms the known association between the HLA-DRB1 shared epitope and RA radiological damage. The lack of replication of previously validated non-HLA markers highlights a requirement for further research to deliver clinically-useful prognostic genetic markers., Competing Interests: NAS has received less than $10,000 consultancies from Bristol myers squibb, and research grants from Mallinchrodt Pharmaceuticals and BWH (which is sponsored by Amgen, BMS, Sanofi/Regeneron, Dxterit, Crescendo and UCB). MEW has received less than $10,000 consultancies from Abbvie, Amgen, Novartis, Roche, Glaxo Smith Kline, Merck, Samsung, Crescendo Bioscience, Gilead, Pfizer and UCB, and over $10,000 from Lilly, and BMS. The BRASS study receives funding from Bristol myers squibb, Sanofi/Regeneron, AMGEN, and Crescendo Biosciences. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Objectives: We sought to investigate whether genetic effects on response to TNF inhibitors (TNFi) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) could be localised by considering known genetic susceptibility loci for relevant traits and to evaluate the usefulness of these genetic loci for stratifying drug response., Methods: We studied the relation of TNFi response, quantified by change in swollen joint counts ( Δ SJC) and erythrocyte sedimentation rate ( Δ ESR) with locus-specific scores constructed from genome-wide assocation study summary statistics in 2938 genotyped individuals: 37 scores for RA; scores for 19 immune cell traits; scores for expression or methylation of 93 genes with previously reported associations between transcript level and drug response. Multivariate associations were evaluated in penalised regression models by cross-validation., Results: We detected a statistically significant association between Δ SJC and the RA score at the CD40 locus (p=0.0004) and an inverse association between Δ SJC and the score for expression of CD39 on CD4 T cells (p=0.00005). A previously reported association between CD39 expression on regulatory T cells and response to methotrexate was in the opposite direction. In stratified analysis by concomitant methotrexate treatment, the inverse association was stronger in the combination therapy group and dissipated in the TNFi monotherapy group. Overall, ability to predict TNFi response from genotypic scores was limited, with models explaining less than 1% of phenotypic variance., Conclusions: The association with the CD39 trait is difficult to interpret because patients with RA are often prescribed TNFi after failing to respond to methotrexate. The CD39 and CD40 pathways could be relevant for targeting drug therapy., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Although a number of treatments are available for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), each of them shows a significant nonresponse rate in patients. Therefore, predicting a priori the likelihood of treatment response would be of great patient benefit. Here, we conducted a comparison of a variety of statistical methods for predicting three measures of treatment response, between baseline and 3 or 6 months, using genome-wide SNP data from RA patients available from the MAximising Therapeutic Utility in Rheumatoid Arthritis (MATURA) consortium. Two different treatments and 11 different statistical methods were evaluated. We used 10-fold cross validation to assess predictive performance, with nested 10-fold cross validation used to tune the model hyperparameters when required. Overall, we found that SNPs added very little prediction information to that obtained using clinical characteristics only, such as baseline trait value. This observation can be explained by the lack of strong genetic effects and the relatively small sample sizes available; in analysis of simulated and real data, with larger effects and/or larger sample sizes, prediction performance was much improved. Overall, methods that were consistent with the genetic architecture of the trait were able to achieve better predictive ability than methods that were not. For treatment response in RA, methods that assumed a complex underlying genetic architecture achieved slightly better prediction performance than methods that assumed a simplified genetic architecture., (© 2018 The Authors. Genetic Epidemiology Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is characterised by chronic synovial joint inflammation. Treatment has been revolutionised by tumour necrosis factor alpha inhibitors (TNFi) but each available drug shows a significant non-response rate. We conducted a genome-wide association study of 1752 UK RA TNFi-treated patients to identify predictors of change in the Disease Activity Score 28 (DAS28) and subcomponents over 3-6 months. The rs7195994 variant at the FTO gene locus was associated with infliximab response when looking at a change in the swollen joint count (SJC28) subcomponent (p = 9.74 × 10 -9 ). Capture Hi-C data show chromatin interactions in GM12878 cells between rs2540767, in high linkage disequilibrium with rs7195994 (R 2  = 0.9) and IRX3, a neighbouring gene of FTO. IRX3 encodes a transcription factor involved in adipocyte remodelling and is regarded as the obesity gene at the FTO locus. Importantly, the rs7195994 association remained significantly associated following adjustment for BMI. In addition, using capture Hi-C data we showed interactions between TNFi-response associated variants and 16 RA susceptibility variants.

Methotrexate (MTX) monotherapy is a common first treatment for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), but many patients do not respond adequately. In order to identify genetic predictors of response, we have combined data from two consortia to carry out a genome-wide study of response to MTX in 1424 early RA patients of European ancestry. Clinical endpoints were change from baseline to 6 months after starting treatment in swollen 28-joint count, tender 28-joint count, C-reactive protein and the overall 3-component disease activity score (DAS28). No single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) reached genome-wide statistical significance for any outcome measure. The strongest evidence for association was with rs168201 in NRG3 (p = 10 -7 for change in DAS28). Some support was also seen for association with ZMIZ1, previously highlighted in a study of response to MTX in juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Follow-up in two smaller cohorts of 429 and 177 RA patients did not support these findings, although these cohorts were more heterogeneous.

Objective: To compare disease activity and disability over 2 years in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) before and after implementation of treat-to-target therapy and identify predictors of adverse outcome., Methods: The Yorkshire Early Arthritis Register (YEAR) recruited 725 patients with early RA between 2002 and 2009, treated with a step-up approach. The Inflammatory Arthritis Continuum study (IACON) recruited cases between 2010 and 2014 and treated to target. A total of 384 IACON cases met 2010 American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism criteria. Latent growth curves of change in Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28) and the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) were compared between YEAR and IACON. Latent class growth analysis identified trajectories of change. Baseline predictors of trajectories were identified using logistic regression., Results: The mean DAS28 over 2 years was lower in IACON than in YEAR. Latent trajectories of HAQ change in YEAR were high stable (21% of cohort), moderate reducing (35%), and low reducing (44%). Only moderate reducing (66%) and low reducing (34%) were seen in IACON. In both cohorts, female sex and fatigue predicted adverse HAQ trajectories (high stable and moderate reducing). Odds ratios (ORs) for moderate reducing compared to low reducing for women were 2.58 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.69, 4.49) in YEAR and 5.81 (95% CI 2.44, 14.29) in IACON. ORs per centimeter fatigue visual analog score were 1.13 (95% CI 1.07, 1.20) in YEAR and 1.16 (95% CI 1.12, 1.20) in IACON., Conclusion: Treat-to-target therapy gave more favorable trajectories of change in DAS28 and HAQ, but adverse HAQ trajectory was more likely in women with greater fatigue, suggesting such patients would benefit from interventions to improve function as well as reduce inflammation., (© 2017, American College of Rheumatology.)

Objective: To assess patient-reported variables as predictors of change in disease activity and disability in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA)., Methods: Cases were recruited to the Yorkshire Early Arthritis Register (YEAR) between 1997 and 2009 (n = 1415). Predictors of the 28-joint Disease Activity Score (DAS28) and the Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index (HAQ-DI) at baseline and change over 12 months were identified using multilevel models. Baseline predictors were sex, age, symptom duration, autoantibody status, pain and fatigue visual analog scales (VAS), duration of early morning stiffness (EMS), DAS28, and HAQ-DI., Results: Rates of change were slower in women than men: DAS28 fell by 0.19 and 0.17 units/month, and HAQ-DI by 0.028 and 0.023 units/month in men and women, respectively. Baseline pain and EMS had small effects on rates of change, whereas fatigue VAS was only associated with DAS28 and HAQ-DI at baseline. In patients recruited up to 2002, DAS28 reduced more quickly in those with greater pain at baseline (by 0.01 units/mo of DAS28 per cm pain VAS, p = 0.024); in patients recruited after 2002, the effect for pain was stronger (by 0.01 units/mo, p = 0.087). DAS28 reduction was greater with longer EMS. In both cohorts, fall in HAQ-DI (p = 0.006) was greater in patients with longer EMS duration, but pain and fatigue were not significant predictors of change in HAQ-DI., Conclusion: Patient-reported fatigue, pain, and stiffness at baseline are of limited value for the prediction of RA change in disease activity (DAS28) and activity limitation (HAQ-DI).

Objective: The aim was to correlate protein concentrations of S100A9 in pretreatment serum samples with response to the tumour-necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitor drugs etanercept in a large UK replication cohort., Methods: Pretreatment serum samples from patients with RA (n = 236) about to commence treatment with etanercept had S100A9 serum concentration measured using an ELISA. Following the experimental procedure, S100A9 concentrations were analysed with respect to EULAR response., Results: No evidence of association between S100A9 concentration and EULAR response to the TNF-inhibitor biologic drug etanercept was observed following multinomial logistic regression analysis (non-responder vs moderate responder, P = 0.957; and non-responder vs good responder, P = 0.316). Furthermore, no significant associations were observed when correlating pretreatment S100A9 concentrations with clinical parameters of disease activity (P > 0.05)., Conclusion: In the largest replication cohort conducted to date, no evidence for association was observed to support the use of S100A9 as a clinical biomarker predictive of response to the TNF-inhibitor biologic drug etanercept., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Objectives: To obtain consensus on the minimum data items for an observational cohort study in RA in the UK and to make available the process for similar studies and other rheumatic conditions., Methods: Individuals with a diverse range of expertise and backgrounds were invited to participate in a process of proposing a minimum core dataset (MCD) for research studies, commissioned by Arthritis Research UK as part of the larger INBANK project. The group included patients and representatives from clinical and academic rheumatology, outcomes science, stratified medicine, health economics, and national professional and academic bodies/committees. A process was devised based on OMERACT principles for reviewing aims/objectives, defining the scope, identifying the important research questions and selecting key domains., Results: Following the initial multistakeholder meeting, subsequent teleconferences and email communications: consensus was obtained on the most important and relevant research questions; agreement on how the OMERACT Core Areas (life impact, pathophysiological manifestations, resource use and death) could form the basis of a MCD; and consensus on 22 items for inclusion into a MCD. Workshops were undertaken for two essential items that required further exploration: work/social participation and co-morbidity., Conclusion: Reaching a consensus for the proposed minimal data items for long-term observational cohort studies of RA in the UK posed novel challenges and opportunities, and was largely successful. Further work is needed for selecting instruments for two important items and for achieving compatibility with other UK national initiatives, and more widely across Europe., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com)

Objectives: To evaluate (i) the association between random certolizumab drug levels, antidrug antibodies (ADAbs) and treatment response in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA); (ii) longitudinal factors associated with ADAbs and certolizumab drug levels., Methods: This prospective cohort included 115 patients with RA treated with certolizumab. Serum samples were collected at 3, 6 and 12 months following treatment initiation. Drug levels and ADAbs were measured using ELISA and radioimmunoassay, respectively, at 3, 6 and 12 months. Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28) were measured at each visit and 12 months European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) response was calculated. Patient self-reported adherence was collected longitudinally. Ordinal logistic regression and generalised estimating equation were used to test the association: (i) between drug levels, from serum sampled and treatment response; (ii) between ADAbs and drug levels; (iii) patient-centred factors and drug levels., Results: ADAbs were detected in 37% (42/112 patients by 12 months). The presence of ADAbs were significantly associated with lower drug levels over 12 months (β=-0.037, 95% CI -0.055 to 0.018, p<0.0001) but not independently with 12 months EULAR response (β=0.0013 (95% CI -0.0032 to 0.00061), p=0.18). Drug level was associated with 12 months EULAR response (β=0.032 (95% CI 0.0011 to 0.063), p=0.042). In the multivariate model, ADAb level and adherence were significantly associated with drug concentrations., Conclusions: This is the first study to demonstrate that higher certolizumab drug levels are associated with better 12 months EULAR response. ADAbs in certolizumab-treated patients with RA were detected at higher levels than previous studies and help determine the aetiology of a low drug level., Competing Interests: MJ reports honoraria from UCB, Abbvie and Pfizer, outside the submitted work. JDI: advisory boards Pfizer, Roche, Abbvie, Janssen, Grants Roche, Pfizer, UCB. AWM has provided consultancy to GSK outside the submitted work. KLH reports honoraria from Abbvie and Pfizer outside of submitted work. HC has received honoraria, lecture fees and/or research grants from Abbvie, Janssen, MSD, Pfizer, UCB, Roche, Celgene and Servier, outside the submitted work. AB reports honoraria and/or grants from Pfizer, Abbvie, Eli-Lilly and Sanofi-Aventis outside the submitted work., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.)

Objectives: To determine the change in established biomarkers of cardiovascular (CV) risk, namely, total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (TC/HDL-C), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and insulin resistance (IR) in patients with early RA treated with two different treat-to-target strategies., Methods: Fasting glucose, lipids, insulin and NT-proBNP were measured at baseline, weeks 26 and 78 in 79 DMARD-naïve RA patients, free of CV disease, as part of a double-blind randomized controlled trial of MTX with either infliximab (IFX) or methylprednisolone as induction therapy. Homeostasis model assessment-estimated IR (HOMA-IR) (glucose*insulin/405) was used to measure IR. Multiple imputation was employed, and linear regression analyses were adjusted for baseline values., Results: Changes in DAS44-CRP did not differ between the treatment arms at weeks 26 and 78. Mean TC/HDL-C, HOMA-IR and NT-proBNP improved in both groups at weeks 26 and 78, although change in NT-proBNP was not statistically significant at week 78. Changes in TC/HDL-C and NT-proBNP were similar between treatment arms, but HOMA-IR values in the IFX + MTX arm were 42% lower than those treated with MTX + methylprednisolone at week 78 (P = 0.003); the difference remained significant after adjustment for baseline BMI, ACPA positivity, smoking status and intramuscular glucocorticoid use (P = 0.007)., Conclusion: When implementing a treat-to-target approach, treatment of early RA was associated with improvement in TC/HDL-C, HOMA-IR and NT-proBNP, and a greater long-term improvement in HOMA-IR was seen in those treated with IFX., Trial Registration: EU Clinical Trials Register, http://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu, Eudract-2005-005013-37; ISRTCNregisrty, http://www.isrctn.com, ISRCTN48638981., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objective: To determine the concordance between RIA and bridging ELISA at detecting anti-drug antibodies (ADAbs) in the context of random adalimumab levels and investigate the additional clinical utility of detecting ADAbs in RA patients who test ADAb positive by RIA and negative by ELISA., Methods: ADAb levels were determined using RIA and bridging ELISA in 63 adalimumab-treated RA patients (159 samples). Immunogenicity concordance was determined using receiver operating characteristic curves. To determine the additional clinical value provided by a positive RIA in the presence of negative ELISA, association between treatment response (ΔDAS28), adalimumab drug levels and ADAbs was evaluated longitudinally using generalized estimating equation., Results: Of the 60 RIA +  samples (n = 31 patients), 19 (n = 10 patients) were also ELISA + , corresponding to 31.7% of samples. Area under the curve for detecting ADAbs using ELISA (compared with RIA) using receiver operating characteristic curves was 0.65 (95% CI: 0.59, 0.71); this increased to 0.91 (95% CI: 0.81, 0.99) if ADAbs were ⩾100 AU/ml using RIA. In RIA + /ELISA - patients, adalimumab levels were associated with ΔDAS28 over 12 months [regression coefficient: 0.098 (95% CI: 0.043, 0.15), P < 0.0001] and while ADAbs were significantly associated with drug level, they were not directly associated with ΔDAS28 over 12 months [β coefficient: 0.00083 (95% CI: -0.0038 to 0.0054), P = 0.72]., Conclusion: ADAbs were detected using ELISA more frequently when present in high titres as measured by RIA. In RIA + /ELISA - patients, only drug levels were significantly associated with treatment response. Although ADAbs were not independently associated with treatment response, they may be helpful in determining the aetiology of low drug levels., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Objective: Biologic drug therapies represent a huge advance in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, very good disease control is achieved in only 30% of patients, making identification of biomarkers of response a research priority. We undertook this study to test our hypothesis that differential DNA methylation patterns may provide biomarkers predictive of response to tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) therapy in patients with RA., Methods: An epigenome-wide association study was performed on pretreatment whole blood DNA from patients with RA. Patients who displayed good response (n = 36) or no response (n = 36) to etanercept therapy at 3 months were selected. Differentially methylated positions were identified using linear regression. Variance of methylation at differentially methylated positions was assessed for correlation with cis-acting single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A replication experiment for prioritized SNPs was performed in an independent cohort of 1,204 RA patients., Results: Five positions that were differentially methylated between responder groups were identified, with a false discovery rate of <5%. The top 2 differentially methylated positions mapped to exon 7 of the LRPAP1 gene on chromosome 4 (cg04857395, P = 1.39 × 10(-8) and cg26401028, P = 1.69 × 10(-8) ). The A allele of the SNP rs3468 was correlated with higher levels of methylation for both of the top 2 differentially methylated positions (P = 2.63 × 10(-7) and P = 1.05 × 10(-6) , respectively). Furthermore, the A allele of rs3468 was correlated with European League Against Rheumatism nonresponse in the discovery cohort (P = 0.03; n = 56) and in the independent replication cohort (P = 0.003; n = 1,204)., Conclusion: We identify DNA methylation as a potential biomarker of response to TNFi therapy, and we report the association between response and the LRPAP1 gene, which encodes a chaperone of low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1. Additional replication experiments in independent sample collections are now needed., (© 2016 The Authors. Arthritis & Rheumatology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Rheumatology.)

Aim: A genetic variant has recently reached genome-wide significance for association with TNF-inhibitor response in rheumatoid arthritis patients. Here we undertake a replication study in a UK Caucasian population to test for association with TNF-inhibitor response., Materials & Methods: The genetic variant, rs3794271, located within the PDE3A-SLCO1C1 locus was analyzed for correlation with treatment response using both the EULAR classification criteria and absolute change in (Δ)DAS28 scores as outcome measures., Results: Genotype data were available from 1750 TNF-inhibitor treated individuals. However, no evidence for association was observed (EULAR: p = 0.91 and ΔDAS28: p = 0.93). Furthermore, no significant associations were observed upon stratification by the anti-TNF received (p > 0.05)., Conclusion: In the largest replication cohort conducted to date, no evidence for association was observed., Competing Interests: Financial & competing interests disclosure SL Smith was funded by an investigator-initiated award to A Barton from Pfizer (award number WS1940162). J Massey is funded by the MRC/Arthritis Research UK stratified medicine award (MATURA, MR/K015346/1). The work is supported by the NIHR's Manchester Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Unit, Leeds Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Unit and Newcastle's Biomedical Research Centre. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily of the NHS; the NIHR or the Department of Health. We also thank Arthritis Research for their support (grant number 20385). The authors would also like to acknowledge the assistance given by IT Services and the use of the Computational Shared Facility at The University of Manchester. The authors have no other relevant affiliations or financial involvement with any organization or entity with a financial interest in or financial conflict with the subject matter or materials discussed in the manuscript apart from those disclosed. No writing assistance was utilized in the production of this manuscript.

Introduction: Gene expression profiling is rapidly becoming a useful and informative tool in a much needed area of research. Identifying patients as to whether they will respond or not to a given treatment before prescription is not only essential to optimise treatment outcome but also to lessen the economic burden that such drugs can have on healthcare resources. In rheumatoid arthritis (RA), there is of yet no genetic/genomic biomarker which can accurately predict response to TNF inhibitor biologics prior to treatment, despite much interest in this area. Multiple studies have reported findings on potential candidate genes; however, due to relatively small sample sizes or lack of sufficient validation, results have been disappointingly inconsistent. The aim of this research was to further explore the predictive value of a previously reported association between CD11c expression and response to the TNF inhibitor biologics, adalimumab and etanercept., Methods: Real-time qPCR was performed using whole blood RNA samples obtained from seventy-five rheumatoid arthritis patients about to commence treatment with a TNF inhibitor biologic drug, whose response status was determined at 3-month follow-up using the EULAR classification criteria. Relative quantification of CD11c using the comparative CT method outputted differential expression between good-responders and non-responders as a fold-change., Results: Relative expression of CD11c in patients receiving TNF inhibitor biologics yielded a decrease of 1.025 fold in good-responders as compared to non-responders (p-value = 0.36). Upon stratification of patients dependent upon the specific drug administered, adalimumab or etanercept, similar findings to the full cohort were observed, decreases of 1.015 (p-value = 0.33) and 1.032 fold (p-value = 0.13) in good-responders compared to non-responders, respectively., Conclusion: The results from this study reveal that CD11c expression does not correlate with response to TNF inhibitor biologics when tested for within pre-treatment whole blood samples of rheumatoid arthritis patients.

Objective: To investigate whether antidrug antibodies and/or drug non-trough levels predict the long-term treatment response in a large cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) treated with adalimumab or etanercept and to identify factors influencing antidrug antibody and drug levels to optimize future treatment decisions., Methods: A total of 331 patients from an observational prospective cohort were selected (160 patients treated with adalimumab and 171 treated with etanercept). Antidrug antibody levels were measured by radioimmunoassay, and drug levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 835 serial serum samples obtained 3, 6, and 12 months after initiation of therapy. The association between antidrug antibodies and drug non-trough levels and the treatment response (change in the Disease Activity Score in 28 joints) was evaluated., Results: Among patients who completed 12 months of followup, antidrug antibodies were detected in 24.8% of those receiving adalimumab (31 of 125) and in none of those receiving etanercept. At 3 months, antidrug antibody formation and low adalimumab levels were significant predictors of no response according to the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) criteria at 12 months (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.71 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.57, 0.85]). Antidrug antibody-positive patients received lower median dosages of methotrexate compared with antidrug antibody-negative patients (15 mg/week versus 20 mg/week; P = 0.01) and had a longer disease duration (14.0 versus 7.7 years; P = 0.03). The adalimumab level was the best predictor of change in the DAS28 at 12 months, after adjustment for confounders (regression coefficient 0.060 [95% CI 0.015, 0.10], P = 0.009). Etanercept levels were associated with the EULAR response at 12 months (regression coefficient 0.088 [95% CI 0.019, 0.16], P = 0.012); however, this difference was not significant after adjustment. A body mass index of ≥30 kg/m(2) and poor adherence were associated with lower drug levels., Conclusion: Pharmacologic testing in anti-tumor necrosis factor-treated patients is clinically useful even in the absence of trough levels. At 3 months, antidrug antibodies and low adalimumab levels are significant predictors of no response according to the EULAR criteria at 12 months., (© 2015 The Authors. Arthritis & Rheumatology is published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Rheumatology.)

Importance: Advances have been made in identifying genetic susceptibility loci for autoimmune diseases, but evidence is needed regarding their association with prognosis and treatment response., Objective: To assess whether specific HLA-DRB1 haplotypes associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) susceptibility are also associated with radiological severity, mortality, and response to tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitor drugs., Design, Setting, and Participants: The Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR; 1691 patients and 2811 radiographs; recruitment: 1989-2008; 2008 as final follow-up) was used as a discovery cohort and the Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Study (421 patients and 3758 radiographs; recruitment: 1986-1999; 2005 as final follow-up) as an independent replication cohort for studies of radiographic outcome. Mortality studies were performed in the NOAR cohort (2432 patients; recruitment: 1990-2007; 2011 as final follow-up) and studies of treatment response in the Biologics in Rheumatoid Arthritis Genetics and Genomics Study Syndicate cohort (1846 patients enrolled at initiation of TNF inhibitor; recruitment: 2006-2010; 2011 as final follow-up). Longitudinal statistical modeling was performed to integrate multiple radiograph records per patient over time. All patients were from the United Kingdom and had self-reported white ancestry., Exposures: Sixteen HLA-DRB1 haplotypes defined by amino acids at positions 11, 71, and 74., Main Outcomes and Measures: Radiological outcome using the Larsen score (range: 0 [none] to 200 [severe joint damage]) and erosions of the hands and feet on radiographs, all-cause mortality, and treatment response measured by change in Disease Activity Score based on 28 joint counts and European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) response., Results: Patients with RA and valine at position 11 of HLA-DRB1 had the strongest association with radiological damage (OR, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.51-2.05], P = 4.6E-13). By year 5, the percentages of patients with erosions of the hands and feet were 48% of noncarriers (150/314) of valine at position 11, 61% of heterozygote carriers (130/213), and 74% of homozygote carriers (43/58). Valine at position 11 also was associated with higher all-cause mortality in patients with inflammatory polyarthritis (hazard ratio, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.03-1.31], P = .01) (noncarriers: 319 deaths in 1398 patients over 17,196 person-years, mortality rate of 1.9% per year; carriers: 324 deaths in 1116 patients in 13,208 person-years, mortality rate of 2.5% per year) and with better EULAR response to TNF inhibitor therapy (OR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.01-1.30], P = .04) (noncarriers: 78% [439/561 patients] with moderate or good EULAR response; heterozygote carriers: 81% [698/866]; and homozygote carriers: 86% [277/322]). The risk hierarchy defined by HLA-DRB1 haplotypes was correlated between disease susceptibility, severity, and mortality, but inversely correlated with TNF inhibitor treatment response., Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with RA, the HLA-DRB1 locus, which is associated with disease susceptibility, was also associated with radiological severity, mortality, and treatment response. Replication of these findings in other cohorts is needed as a next step in evaluating the role of HLA-DRB1 haplotype analysis for management of RA.

Introduction: We have hypothesized that incompatibility between the G1m genotype of the patient and the G1m1 and G1m17 allotypes carried by infliximab (INX) and adalimumab (ADM) could decrease the efficacy of these anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) antibodies in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA)., Methods: The G1m genotypes were analyzed in three collections of patients with RA totaling 1037 subjects. The first, used for discovery, comprised 215 Spanish patients. The second and third were successively used for replication. They included 429 British and Greek patients and 393 Spanish and British patients, respectively. Two outcomes were considered: change in the Disease Activity Score in 28 joint (ΔDAS28) and the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) response criteria., Results: An association between less response to INX and incompatibility of the G1m1,17 allotype was found in the discovery collection at 6 months of treatment (P = 0.03). This association was confirmed in the replications (P = 0.02 and 0.08, respectively) leading to a global association (P = 0.001) that involved a mean difference in ΔDAS28 of 0.4 units between compatible and incompatible patients (2.3 ± 1.5 in compatible patients vs. 1.9 ± 1.5 in incompatible patients) and an increase in responders and decrease in non-responders according to the EULAR criteria (P = 0.03). A similar association was suggested for patients treated with ADM in the discovery collection, but it was not supported by replication., Conclusions: Our results suggest that G1m1,17 allotypes are associated with response to INX and could aid improved therapeutic targeting in RA.

Objective: Non-adherence to DMARDs is common, but little is known about adherence to biologic therapies and its relationship to treatment response. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between self-reported non-adherence to s.c. anti-TNF therapy and response in individuals with RA., Methods: Participants about to start s.c. anti-TNF therapy were recruited to a large UK multicentre prospective observational cohort study. Demographic information and disease characteristics were assessed at baseline. Self-reported non-adherence, defined as whether the previous due dose of biologic therapy was reported as not taken on the day agreed with the health care professional, was recorded at 3 and 6 months following the start of therapy. The 28-joint DAS (DAS28) was recorded at baseline and following 3 and 6 months of therapy. Multivariate linear regression was used to examine these relationships., Results: Three hundred and ninety-two patients with a median disease duration of 7 years [interquartile range (IQR) 3-15] were recruited. Adherence data were available in 286 patients. Of these, 27% reported non-adherence to biologic therapy according to the defined criteria at least once within the first 6-month period. In multivariate linear regression analysis, older age, lower baseline DAS28 and ever non-adherence at either 3 or 6 months from baseline were significantly associated with a poorer DAS28 response at 6 months to anti-TNF therapy., Conclusion: Patients with RA who reported not taking their biologic on the day agreed with their health care professional showed poorer clinical outcomes than their counterparts, emphasizing the need to investigate causes of non-adherence to biologics., (© The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Background: The NLRP3-inflammasome, implicated in the pathogenesis of several inflammatory disorders, has been analysed in rheumatoid arthritis (RA)., Methods: Relative gene expression of NLRP3-inflammasome components was characterised in PBMCs of 29 patients receiving infliximab. A total of 1278 Caucasian patients with RA from the Biologics in Rheumatoid Arthritis Genetics and Genomics Study Syndicate (BRAGGSS) cohort receiving tumour necrosis factor (TNF) antagonists (infliximab, adalimumab and etanercept) were genotyped for 34 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), spanning the genes NLRP3, MEFV and CARD8. Regression analyses were performed to test for association between genotype and susceptibility and treatment response (disease activity score across 28 joints (DAS28) and EULAR improvement criteria) at 6 months, with secondary expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analyses., Results: At baseline, gene expression of ASC, MEFV, NLRP3-FL, NLRP3-SL and CASP1 were significantly higher compared with controls whereas CARD8 was lower in the patients. Caspase-1 and interleukin-18 levels were significantly raised in patients with RA. SNPs in NLRP3 showed association with RA susceptibility and EULAR response to anti-TNF in the BRAGGSS cohort, and in monocytes but not B cells, in eQTL analysis of 283 healthy controls. CARD8 SNPs were associated with RA susceptibility and DAS28 improvement in response to anti-TNF and eQTL effects in monocytes and B cells., Conclusions: This study found evidence of modulation of the NLRP3-inflammasome in patients with RA prior to receiving infliximab and some evidence of association for SNPs at NLRP3 and CARD8 loci with RA susceptibility and response to anti-TNF. The SNPs associated with susceptibility/response are not the main eQTL variants for either locus, and the associations with treatment response require replication in an independent cohort.

Objective: The Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28), used to assess disease activity in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), is a composite score comprising clinical, biochemical, and patient self-report measures. We hypothesized that psychological factors (cognitions and mood) would be more strongly associated with patient-reported components of the DAS28 than clinical or biochemical components., Methods: A cross-sectional, observational study of 322 RA patients with active disease (mean DAS28 6.0) awaiting therapy with a biologic agent was undertaken. Patients' illness beliefs, treatment beliefs, and mood were measured using the Brief Illness Perception Questionnaire (IPQ), the Beliefs about Medicines Questionnaire (BMQ), and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), respectively. Relationships between psychological factors and 1) total DAS28 and 2) individual components of the DAS28 were analyzed using linear regression., Results: Total DAS28 produced significant but weak associations with 2 of the Brief IPQ items, but no associations with BMQ or HADS scores. There were larger significant associations between the patient-reported visual analog scale (VAS) with 5 items of the Brief IPQ and with HADS depression. Low illness coherence was associated with higher tender joint count. Three Brief IPQ items and HADS anxiety scores were significantly associated with C-reactive protein level or erythrocyte sedimentation rate. No psychological factors were associated with the swollen joint count., Conclusion: One of the subjective components of the DAS28, patient VAS, was highly correlated with cognitive factors and depression in those with severe RA. By reporting individual DAS28 components, clinicians may be better able to assess the impact of therapies on each component, adjusting approaches according to patients' needs., (© 2014 The Authors. Arthritis Care & Research is published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Rheumatology.)

Eligibility for anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF) therapy in most European countries is restricted to severe, active rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The DAS28 score is a marker of disease severity and incorporates one of two inflammatory markers, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) or C-reactive protein. We aimed to determine the relation between genetic variants known to affect ESR and levels of ESR in patients with active RA. DNA samples were genotyped for four single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) rs7527798 (CR1L), rs6691117 (CR1), rs10903129 (TMEM57) and rs1043879 (C1orf63). The association between SNPs and baseline ESR, baseline DAS28-ESR, and change in DAS28-ESR was evaluated. Baseline ESR was significantly associated with CR1 rs6691117 genotype (P=0.01). No correlation was identified between baseline DAS28-ESR or change in DAS28-ESR. In conclusion, genetic variation in the gene encoding CR1 may alter ESR levels but not DAS28-ESR, indicating no adjustment for CR1 genotype is required in the assessment of patients with severe active RA.

Aim: To date, functional MTHFR SNPs have been tested for their impact on low-dose methotrexate (MTX) response in small rheumatoid arthritis (RA) cohorts. We sought to test their effect in the single largest cohort studied to date, and undertook a meta-analysis utilizing stringent study inclusion criteria., Materials & Methods: RA patients treated with MTX monotherapy from the Yorkshire Early Arthritis Register (YEAR) were genotyped using RFLP assays, and tested for association with treatment efficacy. Studies for meta-analysis were screened by a set of stringent inclusion criteria., Results & Conclusion: rs1801131 and rs1801133 were not associated with response to MTX in the YEAR cohort, nor did they affect the probability of achieving a low disease activity state. A meta-analysis of comparable studies found no association with these SNPs. MTHFR SNPs rs1801131 and rs1801133 are unlikely to have a clinically meaningful effect on the first 6 months of MTX treatment in early RA.

Objectives: In disease modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD)-naive early rheumatoid arthritis (RA), to compare the efficacy of methotrexate (MTX) and infliximab (IFX) with MTX and intravenous corticosteroid for remission induction., Methods: In a 78-week multicentre randomised controlled trial, double-blinded to week 26, 112 treatment-naive RA patients (1987 American College of Rheumatology classification criteria) with disease activity score 44 (DAS44)>2.4 were randomised to MTX + IFX or MTX + single dose intravenous methylprednisolone 250 mg. A treat-to-target approach was used with treatment escalation if DAS44>2.4. In the IFX group, IFX was discontinued for sustained remission (DAS44<1.6 for 6 months). The primary outcome was change in modified total Sharp-van der Heijde score (mTSS) at week 50., Results: The mean changes in mTSS score at week 50 in the IFX and intravenous steroid groups were 1.20 units and 2.81 units, respectively (adjusted difference (95% CI) -1.45 (-3.35 to 0.45); p=0.132). Radiographic non-progression (mTSS<2.0) occurred in 81% vs 71% (OR 1.77 (0.56 to 5.61); p=0.328). DAS44 remission was achieved at week 50 in 49% and 36% (OR 2.13 (0.91 to 5.00); p=0.082), and at week 78 in 48% and 50% (OR 1.12 (0.47 to 2.68); p=0.792). Exploratory analyses suggested higher DAS28 remission at week 6 and less ultrasound synovitis at week 50 in the IFX group. Of the IFX group, 25% (14/55) achieved sustained remission and stopped IFX. No substantive differences in adverse events were seen., Conclusions: In DMARD-naive early RA patients, initial therapy with MTX+high-dose intravenous steroid resulted in good disease control with little structural damage. MTX+IFX was not statistically superior to MTX+intravenous steroid when combined with a treat-to-target approach.

Objective: The number of confirmed rheumatoid arthritis (RA) loci currently stands at 32, but many lines of evidence indicate that expansion of existing genome-wide association studies (GWAS) enhances the power to detect additional loci. This study was undertaken to extend our previous RA GWAS in a UK cohort, adding more independent RA cases and healthy controls, with the aim of detecting novel association signals for susceptibility to RA in a homogeneous UK cohort., Methods: A total of 3,223 UK RA cases and 5,272 UK controls were available for association analyses, with the extension adding 1,361 cases and 2,334 controls to the original GWAS data set. The genotype data for all RA cases were imputed using the Impute program version 2. After stringent quality control thresholds were applied, 3,034 cases and 5,271 controls (1,831,729 single-nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs]) were available for analysis. Association testing was performed using Plink software., Results: The analyses indicated a suggestive association with susceptibility to RA (P < 0.0001) for 6 novel RA loci that have been previously found to be associated with other autoimmune diseases; these 6 SNPs were genotyped in independent samples. Two of the associated loci were validated, one of which was associated with RA at genome-wide levels of significance in the combined analysis, identifying a novel RA locus at 22q12 (P = 6.9 × 10(-9) ). In addition, most of the previously known RA susceptibility loci were confirmed to be associated with RA, and for 16 of the loci, the strength of the association was increased., Conclusion: This study identified a new RA locus mapping to 22q12. These results support the notion that increasing the power of GWAS enhances novel gene discovery., (© 2014 The Authors. Arthritis & Rheumatology is published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Rheumatology.)

Objective: A recent high-density fine-mapping (ImmunoChip) study of genetic associations in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) identified 14 risk loci with validated genome-wide significance, as well as a number of loci showing associations suggestive of significance (P = 5 × 10(-5) < 5 × 10(-8)), but these have yet to be replicated. The aim of this study was to determine whether these potentially significant loci are involved in the pathogenesis of RA, and to explore whether any of the loci are associated with a specific RA serotype., Methods: A total of 16 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected for genotyping and association analyses in 2 independent validation cohorts, comprising 6,106 RA cases and 4,290 controls. A meta-analysis of the data from the original ImmunoChip discovery cohort and from both validation cohorts was carried out, for a combined total of 17,581 RA cases and 20,160 controls. In addition, stratified analysis of patient subsets, defined according to their anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) antibody status, was performed., Results: A significant association with RA risk (P < 0.05) was replicated for 6 of the SNPs assessed in the validation cohorts. All SNPs in the validation study had odds ratios (ORs) for RA susceptibility in the same direction as those in the ImmunoChip discovery study. One SNP, rs72928038, mapping to an intron of BACH2, achieved genome-wide significance in the meta-analysis (P = 1.2 × 10(-8), OR 1.12), and a second SNP, rs911263, mapping to an intron of RAD51B, was significantly associated in the anti-CCP-positive RA subgroup (P = 4 × 10(-8), OR 0.89), confirming that both are RA susceptibility loci., Conclusion: This study provides robust evidence for an association of RA susceptibility with genes involved in B cell differentiation (BACH2) and DNA repair (RAD51B). The finding that the RAD51B gene exhibited different associations based on serologic subtype adds to the expanding knowledge base in defining subgroups of RA., (© 2013 The Authors. Arthritis & Rheumatism is published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Rheumatology.)

Objective: There is increasing evidence to indicate that genetic factors contribute significantly to radiologic joint damage in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The aim of the present study was to determine whether genotypes of 10 recently identified RA susceptibility loci are associated with radiologic severity., Methods: A 2-stage study was performed using 3 Northern European RA populations: a British cross-sectional population (discovery cohort; n=885) and the Leiden Early Arthritis Clinic (EAC) cohort (n=581) and Yorkshire Early Arthritis Register (YEAR) cohort (n=418) (validation cohorts). Radiologic damage was assessed using a modified Larsen method for scoring radiographs (in the discovery cohort) or modified Sharp/van der Heijde score (in the 2 validation cohorts). A meta-analysis was performed to bring together the evidence from the 3 studies, using data on radiologic severity of joint damage from a single time point., Results: An allele-dose association of rs26232 was present in the discovery population (P=4×10(-4)); the median modified Larsen scores of radiologic joint damage per genotype were 31 (for those with CC), 27 (for those with CT), and 16 (for those with TT). The allele-dose association of rs26232 was replicated in both the Leiden EAC cohort during the initial 7 years of RA (P=0.04) and the YEAR cohort (P=0.039). In a fixed-effects meta-analysis of all 3 studies, the per T allele effect on the ratio of radiologic severity scores was 0.90 (95% confidence interval 0.84, 0.96; P=0.004)., Conclusion: The variant rs26232, in the first intron of the C5orf30 locus, is associated with the severity of radiologic damage in RA and is independent of established prognostic biomarkers. The biologic activities of C5orf30 are unknown, but our genetic data suggest that it is involved in mediating joint damage in RA., (Copyright © 2013 by the American College of Rheumatology.)

Objective: To investigate the interrelationships among smoking, protein tyrosine phosphatase non-receptor 22 (PTPN22) R620W (rs2476601) genotype, and anticitrullinated peptide antibody (ACPA) status; and among smoking, PTPN22 R620W genotype, and presence of bone erosions overall and separately by ACPA status in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA)., Methods: Six studies totaling 2680 patients with RA were included in a Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effects metaanalysis investigating ACPA status and up to 8 studies totaling 3172 patients with RA were included in a Mantel-Haenszel fixed-effects metaanalysis investigating presence of erosive damage., Results: Evidence was found for an increase in the odds of ACPA positivity for ever smoking (OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.28-1.90, p = 8.5 × 10(-6)), carriage of at least 1 of the PTPN22 risk alleles (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.13-2.00, p = 5.5 × 10(-3)) and both ever smoking and carriage of at least 1 of the PTPN22 risk alleles (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.69-2.91, p = 8.3 × 10(-9)). There was no evidence of an association between presence of erosive damage and smoking status or carriage of PTPN22 risk alleles when analyzed overall or separately by ACPA status., Conclusion: This metaanalysis indicates that both smoking and the PTPN22 risk allele are associated with the risk of ACPA positivity. There was insufficient evidence to establish a relationship in either direction between PTPN22 and smoking with erosive damage, despite evidence that ACPA positivity is associated with erosive damage.

Anti-tumor necrosis factor alpha (anti-TNF) biologic therapy is a widely used treatment for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). It is unknown why some RA patients fail to respond adequately to anti-TNF therapy, which limits the development of clinical biomarkers to predict response or new drugs to target refractory cases. To understand the biological basis of response to anti-TNF therapy, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis of more than 2 million common variants in 2,706 RA patients from 13 different collections. Patients were treated with one of three anti-TNF medications: etanercept (n = 733), infliximab (n = 894), or adalimumab (n = 1,071). We identified a SNP (rs6427528) at the 1q23 locus that was associated with change in disease activity score (ΔDAS) in the etanercept subset of patients (P = 8 × 10(-8)), but not in the infliximab or adalimumab subsets (P>0.05). The SNP is predicted to disrupt transcription factor binding site motifs in the 3' UTR of an immune-related gene, CD84, and the allele associated with better response to etanercept was associated with higher CD84 gene expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (P = 1 × 10(-11) in 228 non-RA patients and P = 0.004 in 132 RA patients). Consistent with the genetic findings, higher CD84 gene expression correlated with lower cross-sectional DAS (P = 0.02, n = 210) and showed a non-significant trend for better ΔDAS in a subset of RA patients with gene expression data (n = 31, etanercept-treated). A small, multi-ethnic replication showed a non-significant trend towards an association among etanercept-treated RA patients of Portuguese ancestry (n = 139, P = 0.4), but no association among patients of Japanese ancestry (n = 151, P = 0.8). Our study demonstrates that an allele associated with response to etanercept therapy is also associated with CD84 gene expression, and further that CD84 expression correlates with disease activity. These findings support a model in which CD84 genotypes and/or expression may serve as a useful biomarker for response to etanercept treatment in RA patients of European ancestry., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The improved characterisation of risk factors for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) suggests they could be combined to identify individuals at increased disease risks in whom preventive strategies may be evaluated. We aimed to develop an RA prediction model capable of generating clinically relevant predictive data and to determine if it better predicted younger onset RA (YORA). Our novel modelling approach combined odds ratios for 15 four-digit/10 two-digit HLA-DRB1 alleles, 31 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and ever-smoking status in males to determine risk using computer simulation and confidence interval based risk categorisation. Only males were evaluated in our models incorporating smoking as ever-smoking is a significant risk factor for RA in men but not women. We developed multiple models to evaluate each risk factor's impact on prediction. Each model's ability to discriminate anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA)-positive RA from controls was evaluated in two cohorts: Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC: 1,516 cases; 1,647 controls); UK RA Genetics Group Consortium (UKRAGG: 2,623 cases; 1,500 controls). HLA and smoking provided strongest prediction with good discrimination evidenced by an HLA-smoking model area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.813 in both WTCCC and UKRAGG. SNPs provided minimal prediction (AUC 0.660 WTCCC/0.617 UKRAGG). Whilst high individual risks were identified, with some cases having estimated lifetime risks of 86%, only a minority overall had substantially increased odds for RA. High risks from the HLA model were associated with YORA (P<0.0001); ever-smoking associated with older onset disease. This latter finding suggests smoking's impact on RA risk manifests later in life. Our modelling demonstrates that combining risk factors provides clinically informative RA prediction; additionally HLA and smoking status can be used to predict the risk of younger and older onset RA, respectively., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Introduction: In many European countries, restrictions exist around the prescription of anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) treatments for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Eligibility and response to treatment is assessed by using the disease activity score 28 (DAS28) algorithm, which incorporates one of two inflammatory markers, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) or C-reactive protein (CRP). Although DAS28-CRP provides a more reliable measure of disease activity, functional variants exist within the CRP gene that affect basal CRP production., Methods: DNA samples from the Biologics in Rheumatoid Arthritis Genetics and Genomics Study Syndicate (BRAGGSS) were genotyped for rs1205, rs1800947, and rs3091244 by using either TaqMan or the Sequenom MassARRAY iPLEX system., Results: Baseline CRP measurements were available for 599 samples with 442 also having data 6 months after treatment with an anti-TNF. For these 442 samples, the study had > 80% power to detect a clinically meaningful difference of 0.6 DAS28 Units for an allele frequency of 5%. Estimated haplotype frequencies corresponded with previous frequencies reported in the literature. Overall, no significant association was observed between any of the markers investigated and baseline CRP levels. Further, CRP haplotypes did not correlate with baseline CRP (P = 0.593), baseline DAS28-CRP (P = 0.540), or change in DAS28-CRP after treatment with an anti-TNF over a 6-month period (P = 0.302)., Conclusions: Although CRP genotype may influence baseline CRP levels, in patients with very active disease, no such association was found. This suggests that genetic variation at the CRP locus does not influence DAS28-CRP, which may continue to be used in determining eligibility for and response to anti-TNF treatment, without adjusting for CRP genotype.

Objectives: The aims of this study were to assess the association between area-level socio-economic deprivation and the phenotype of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), defined by rheumatoid factor (RF) and anticitrullinated peptide antibody (AC PA) status, and to determine whether any observed association can be explained by smoking., Methods: The authors performed logistic regression analysis of 6298 patients with RA, defined by American College of Rheumatology classification criteria modified for genetic studies. Analysis was stratified by cohort/recruitment centre. Socio-economic deprivation was measured using the Townsend Index., Results: Deprivation predicted RF but not ACPA positivity, independent of smoking. The ORs for trend across tertiles, adjusted for smoking, gender, period of birth and cohort/recruitment centre, were 1.14 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.29) for RF and 1.01 (95% CI 0.87 to 1.16) for ACPA. Even after adjusting for deprivation, smoking was strongly associated with ACPA positivity (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.55). There was no evidence of any effect modification by the RA risk alleles (HLA-DRB1 shared epitope and PTPN22 rs2476601) that have previously been shown to modify the effect of smoking on ACPA and RF positivity., Conclusions: Among patients with RA, deprivation predicted RF positivity but not ACPA positivity. The effect of deprivation did not appear to be explained by smoking. Deprivation may be a marker for previously unrecognised, potentially modifiable environmental influences on the immunological phenotype of RA. Furthermore, given the known associations of RF positivity with prognosis and response to treatment in RA, these findings have potential implications for resource allocation and healthcare delivery.

Anti-tumour necrosis factor (TNF) biologics have revolutionized therapy of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We compared the effects of infliximab on numbers of circulating leucocyte subsets in early RA (disease/symptom duration of ≤1 year) and late RA patients (>1 year). A control group consisted of early RA patients treated with a combination of methotrexate (MTX) and methylprednisolone. Blood samples were obtained at baseline (pre-therapy) from all RA patients, divided into three groups: (i) late RA receiving infliximab/MTX, (ii) early RA-infliximab/MTX, (iii) early RA-steroid/MTX, and also from follow-up patients at 2 and 14 weeks. Significant differences in absolute counts of monocytes and granulocytes were observed between healthy controls and RA patients. At baseline CD14(bright) monocytes and CD16(+) granulocytes were increased in both early RA and late RA patients. CD4(+) T cells, CD8(+) T cells and B cells were all increased at baseline in early RA, but not in late RA. At 2 weeks following infliximab treatment decreased granulocytes were observed in both early and late RA and decreased natural killer (NK) cells in late RA. CD16(+) granulocytes and NK cells were also decreased at 14 weeks post-infliximab in early RA. Biotinylated infliximab was used to detect membrane-associated TNF (mTNF)-expressing leucocytes in RA patients. CD16(+) granulocytes, NK cells and CD14(dim) monocytes all expressed higher levels of mTNF in RA patients. In summary infliximab is associated with decreased CD16(+) granulocyte and NK cell counts, possibly through binding of mTNF. Differential effects of infliximab between early and late RA suggest that pathogenic mechanisms change as disease progresses., (© 2012 The Authors. Clinical and Experimental Immunology © 2012 British Society for Immunology.)

Objective: A number of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) susceptibility genes have been identified in recent years. Given the overlap in phenotypic expression of synovial joint inflammation between RA and psoriatic arthritis (PsA), the authors explored whether RA susceptibility genes are also associated with PsA., Methods: 56 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) mapping to 41 genes previously reported as RA susceptibility loci were selected for investigation. PsA was defined as an inflammatory arthritis associated with psoriasis and subjects were recruited from the UK and Ireland. Genotyping was performed using the Sequenom MassArray platform and frequencies compared with data derived from large UK control collections., Results: Significant evidence for association with susceptibility to PsA was found toa SNP mapping to the REL (rs13017599, p(trend)=5.2×10(4)) gene, while nominal evidence for association (p(trend)<0.05) was found to seven other loci including PLCL2 (rs4535211, p=1.7×10(-3)); STAT4 (rs10181656, p=3.0×10(-3)) and the AFF3, CD28, CCL21, IL2 and KIF5A loci. Interestingly, three SNPs demonstrated opposite effects to those reported for RA., Conclusions: The REL gene, a key modulator of the NFκB pathway, is associated with PsA but the allele conferring risk to RA is protective in PsA suggesting that there are fundamental differences in the aetiological mechanisms underlying these two types of inflammatory arthritis.

The FCGR locus encoding the low-affinity Fcγ receptors (FcγR) for immunoglobulin G has largely been missed by genome-wide association studies due to complications with structural variation and segmental duplication. Recently identified copy number variants (CNVs) affecting FCGR3A and FCGR3B have been linked to a number of autoimmune disorders. We have developed and validated a novel quantitative sequence variant assay in combination with an adapted paralogue ratio test to examine independent CNVs carrying FCGR3A and FCGR3B in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) compared with healthy volunteers (n = 1,115 and 654, respectively). Implementation of a robust statistical analysis framework (CNVtools) allowed for systematic batch effects and for the inherent uncertainty of copy number assignment, thus avoiding two major sources of false positive results. Evidence for association with neither duplications nor deletions of FCGR3A was found; however, in line with previous studies, there was evidence of overrepresentation of FCGR3B deletions in RA (odds ratio [OR] 1.50, P = 0.028), which was more apparent in rheumatoid factor positive disease (OR 1.61, P = 0.011). The level of FcγRIIIb, encoded by FCGR3B, expression on neutrophils was shown to correlate with gene copy number. Thus, our results may highlight an important role for neutrophils in the pathogenesis of RA, potentially through reduced FcγRIIIb-mediated immune complex clearance., (© 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Objective: Several rheumatoid arthritis (RA) susceptibility variants map close to genes involved in the tumor necrosis factor (TNF) signaling pathway, prompting the investigation of RA susceptibility variants in studies of predictors of response to TNF blockade. Based on a previously reported association of RA with the PTPRC genetic locus, the present study was undertaken to test established RA susceptibility variants, including PTPRC, in the prediction of response to TNF blockade in a large cohort of patients from the UK., Methods: DNA was extracted from the blood of 1,115 UK patients with RA who were receiving anti-TNF biologic therapy. Samples were analyzed for 29 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously established as RA susceptibility variants. In the primary analysis, the effect of each SNP on treatment response was assessed by linear regression, using an additive model, in which absolute change in the Disease Activity Score in 28 joints at 6 months of followup was the outcome measure. In a secondary analysis, logistic regression models were used to compare patients with a good treatment response (n = 274) to those with a poor response (n = 195), as defined using the European League Against Rheumatism response criteria. Results were combined with those from previous studies to confirm the findings by meta-analysis., Results: The PTPRC rs10919563 SNP was associated with improved treatment response in both the primary analysis (regression coefficient 0.19, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.09, 0.37; P = 0.04) and secondary analysis (odds ratio 0.62, 95% CI 0.40, 0.95; P = 0.03). A meta-analysis combining these data with the results from a previous study strengthened the evidence for association with the PTPRC SNP (P = 5.13 × 10(-5) ). No convincing association of the treatment response with other candidate loci was detected., Conclusion: Presence of the rs10919563 RA susceptibility variant at the PTPRC gene locus predicts improved response to anti-TNF biologic therapy. Fine-mapping studies are required to determine whether this SNP or another variant at the locus provides the greatest predictive accuracy for treatment response., (Copyright © 2012 by the American College of Rheumatology.)

Previously-proposed rheumatoid arthritis (RA) HLA-DRB1 susceptibility and protective models were compared, based on amino acids at positions 67-74 and autoantibody combinations. 3 657 RA patients and 1 357 controls were studied using logistic regression, with secondary stratification by anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies(ACPA) and rheumatoid factor(RF). Susceptibility models were based on previously defined HLA-DRB1 shared epitope(SE) subgroups. (70)DERAA(74), D(70) and I(67) protective models were compared, adjusting for HLA-DRB1 SE. A hierarchy of risk was observed within the HLA-DRB1 SE, particularly for ACPA-positive and RF-positive RA: HLA-DRB1(*)0401∼(*)0404>(*)0101∼(*)1001 ((*)0404>(*)0101: P=0.0003). HLA-DRB1(*)0401/(*)0404 compound heterozygosity conferred a risk similar to (*)0401 homozygosity (P=0.70). Protective effects of D(70) and I(67) were similar. Predictions of the D(70) model fitted the data better than those of the I(67) model. The protective effect of D(70) showed a gene-dose effect (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.73-0.92, P=5.8 × 10(-4)), but was only seen in RA patients positive for RF or ACPA. HLA-DRB1 SE alleles were also associated with ACPA-negative, RF-positive RA (OR 1.42 (1.15-1.76), P=0.0012). In conclusion, HLA-DRB1 SE alleles show heterogeneity in RA susceptibility; their major effect appears to be mediated by ACPA positivity, but a significant association of HLA-DRB1 SE with RF-positive, ACPA-negative RA was also observed. D(70) specifically protected against antibody-positive RA.