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Minimoons are asteroids that become temporarily captured by the Earth-Moon system. We present the discovery of 2024 PT$_5$, a minimoon discovered by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) Sutherland telescope on 2024 August 7. The minimoon with heliocentric semi-major axis, $a$$\sim$1.01 au, and perihelion, $q$$\sim$0.99 au, became captured by the Earth-Moon system on 2024 September 29 and left on 2024 November 25 UTC. Visible g, r, i, and Z spectrophotometry was obtained using Gemini North/Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph (GMOS) on 2024 September 27. The color indices are g-r = 0.58$\pm$0.04, r-i = 0.29$\pm$0.04, i-Z = -0.27$\pm$0.06, and the spectrum best matches lunar rock samples followed by S-complex asteroids. Assuming an albedo of 0.21 and using our measured absolute magnitude of 28.64$\pm$0.04, 2024 PT$_5$ has a diameter of 5.4$\pm$1.2 m. We also detect variations in the lightcurve of 2024 PT$_5$ with a 0.28$\pm$0.07 magnitude amplitude and a double-peaked period of $\sim$2600$\pm$500 s. We improve the orbital solution of 2024 PT$_5$ with our astrometry and estimate the effect of radiation pressure on its deriving an area-to-mass ratio of 7.02$\pm$2.05$\times$10$^{-5}$ m$^2$/kg, implying a density of $\sim$3.9$\pm$2.1 g/cm$^3$, compatible with having a rocky composition. If we assume 2024 PT$_5$ is from the NEO population, its most likely sources are resonances in the inner Main Belt by comparing its orbit with the NEO population model, though this does not exclude a lunar origin., Comment: 23 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal Letters. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2008.05384

This work is dedicated to debias the Near-Earth Objects (NEO) population based on observations from the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescopes. We have applied similar methods used to develop the recently released NEO model generator (NEOMOD), once debiasing the NEO population using data from Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) G96 telescope. ATLAS is composed of four different telescopes. We first analyzed observational data from each of all four telescopes separately and later combined them. Our results highlight main differences between CSS and ATLAS, e.g., sky coverage and survey power at debiasing the NEO population. ATLAS has a much larger sky coverage than CSS, allowing it to find bright NEOs that would be constantly "hiding" from CSS. Consequently, ATLAS is more powerful than CSS at debiasing the NEO population for H $\lesssim$ 19. With its intrinsically greater sensitivity and emphasis on observing near opposition, CSS excels in the debiasing of smaller objects. ATLAS, as an all sky survey designed to find imminent hazardous objects, necessarily spends a significant fraction of time looking at places on the sky where objects do not appear, reducing its power for debiasing the population of small objects. We estimate a NEO population completeness of $\approx$ 88%$^{+3\%}_{-2\%}$ for H $<$ 17.75 and $\approx$ 36%$^{+1\%}_{-1\%}$ for H $<$ 22.25. Those numbers are similar to previous estimates (within error bars for H $<$ 17.75) from CSS, yet, around 3% and 8% smaller at their face values, respectively. We also confirm previous finding that the $\nu_6$ secular resonance is the main source of small and faint NEOs at H = 28, whereas the 3:1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter dominates for larger and brighter NEOs at H = 15., Comment: Accepted for publication in Icarus, 26 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables

Our previous model (NEOMOD2) for the orbital and absolute magnitude distribution of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) was calibrated on the Catalina Sky Survey observations between 2013 and 2022. Here we extend NEOMOD2 to include visible albedo information from the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer. The debiased albedo distribution of NEOs can be approximated by the sum of two Rayleigh distributions with the scale parameters p_V,dark=0.03 and p_V,bright=0.17. We find evidence for smaller NEOs having (on average) higher albedos than larger NEOs; this is likely a consequence of the size-dependent sampling of different main belt sources. These inferences and the absolute magnitude distribution from NEOMOD2 are used to construct the debiased size distribution of NEOs. We estimate 830+/-60 NEOs with diameters D>1 km and 20,000+/-2,000 NEOs with D>140 m. The new model, NEOMOD3, is available via the NEOMOD Simulator -- an easy-to-operate code that can be used to generate user-defined samples (orbits, sizes and albedos) from the model., Comment: Icarus, in press

We investigate the behaviour of two recent methods for the computation of preliminary orbits. These methods are based on the conservation laws of Kepler's problem, and enable the linkage of very short arcs of optical observations even when they are separated in time by a few years. Our analysis is performed using both synthetic and real data of 822 main belt asteroids. The differences between computed and true orbital elements have been analysed for the true linkages, as well as the occurrence of alternative solutions. Some metrics have been introduced to quantify the results, with the aim of discarding as many of the false linkages as possible and keeping the vast majority of true ones. These numerical experiments provide thresholds for the metrics which take advantage of the knowledge of the \emph{ground truth}: the values of these thresholds can be used in normal operation mode, when we do not know the correct values of the orbital elements and whether the linkages are true or false.

Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) is a major survey of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). In a recent work, we used CSS observations from 2005-2012 to develop a new population model of NEOs (NEOMOD). CSS's G96 telescope was upgraded in 2016 and detected over 10,000 unique NEOs since then. Here we characterize the NEO detection efficiency of G96 and use G96's NEO detections from 2013-2022 to update NEOMOD. This resolves previous model inconsistencies related to the population of large NEOs. We estimate there are 936+/-29 NEOs with absolute magnitude H<17.75 (diameter D>1 km for the reference albedo p_V=0.14). The slope of the NEO size distribution for H=25-28 is found to be relatively shallow (cumulative index 2.6) and the number of H<28 NEOs (D>9 m) is determined to be (1.20+/-0.04)x10^7. Small NEOs have a different orbital distribution and higher impact probabilities than large NEOs. We estimate 0.034+/-0.002 impacts of H<28 NEOs on the Earth per year, which is near the low end of the impact flux range inferred from atmospheric bolide observations. Relative to a model where all NEOs are delivered directly from the main belt, the population of small NEOs detected by G96 shows an excess of low-eccentricity orbits with a=1--1.6 au that appears to increase with H. We suggest that the population of very small NEOs is boosted by tidal disruption of large NEOs during close encounters to the terrestrial planets. When the effect of tidal disruption is (approximately) accounted for in the model, we estimate 0.06+/-0.01 impacts of H<28 NEOs on the Earth per year, which is more in line with the bolide data., Comment: Icarus, in press. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2306.09521

Interstellar small bodies are unique probes into the histories of exoplanetary systems. One hypothesized class of interlopers are "Jurads," exo-comets released into the Milky Way during the post-main sequence as the thermally-pulsing asymptotic giant branch (AGB) host stars lose mass. In this study, we assess the prospects for the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) to detect a Jurad and examine whether such an interloper would be observationally distinguishable from exo-comets ejected during the (pre-)main sequence. Using analytic and numerical methods, we estimate the fraction of exo-Oort Cloud objects that are released from 1-8 solar mass stars during post-main sequence evolution. We quantify the extent to which small bodies are altered by the increased luminosity and stellar outflows during the AGB, finding that some Jurads may lack hypervolatiles and that stellar winds could deposit dust that covers the entire exo-comet surface. Next, we construct models of the interstellar small body reservoir for various size-frequency distribution slopes, characteristic sizes, and the total mass sequestered in the minor planets of exo-Oort Clouds. Even with the LSST's increased search volume compared to contemporary surveys, we find that detecting a Jurad is unlikely but not infeasible given the current understanding of (exo)planet formation., Comment: 28 pages, 13 figures; accepted to PSJ

Near Earth Objects (NEOs) are a transient population of small bodies with orbits near or in the terrestrial planet region. They represent a mid-stage in the dynamical cycle of asteroids and comets, which starts with their removal from the respective source regions -- the main belt and trans-Neptunian scattered disk -- and ends as bodies impact planets, disintegrate near the Sun, or are ejected from the Solar System. Here we develop a new orbital model of NEOs by numerically integrating asteroid orbits from main belt sources and calibrating the results on observations of the Catalina Sky Survey. The results imply a size-dependent sampling of the main belt with the $\nu_6$ and 3:1 resonances producing $\simeq 30$\% of NEOs with absolute magnitudes $H = 15$ and $\simeq 80$\% of NEOs with $H = 25$. Hence, the large and small NEOs have different orbital distributions. The inferred flux of $H<18$ bodies into the 3:1 resonance can be sustained only if the main-belt asteroids near the resonance drift toward the resonance at the maximal Yarkovsky rate ($\simeq 2 \times 10^{-4}$ au Myr$^{-1}$ for diameter $D=1$ km and semimajor axis $a=2.5$~au). This implies obliquities $\theta \simeq 0^\circ$ for $a<2.5$~au and $\theta \simeq 180^\circ$ for $a>2.5$~au, both in the immediate neighborhood of the resonance (the same applies to other resonances as well). We confirm the size-dependent disruption of asteroids near the Sun found in previous studies. An interested researcher can use the publicly available NEOMOD Simulator to generate user-defined samples of NEOs from our model., Comment: AJ

Ground-based characterization of spacecraft targets prior to mission operations is critical to properly plan and execute measurements. Understanding surface properties, like mineralogical composition and phase curves (expected brightness at different viewing geometries) informs data acquisition during the flybys. Binary near-Earth asteroids (NEA) (35107) 1991 VH and (175706) 1996 FG3 were selected as potential targets of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) dual spacecraft Janus mission. We observed 1991 VH using the 3-m NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) on Mauna Kea, Hawaii, on July 26, 2008. 1996 FG3 was observed with the IRTF for seven nights during the spring of 2022. Compositional analysis of 1991 VH revealed that this NEA is classified as an Sq-type in the Bus-DeMeo taxonomy classification, with a composition consistent with LL ordinary chondrites. Using thermal modeling, we computed the thermally corrected spectra for 1996 FG3 and the corresponding best fit albedo of about 2-3% for the best spectra averaged for each night. Our spectral analysis indicates that this NEA is a Ch-type. The best possible meteorite analogs for 1996 FG3, based on curve matching, are two carbonaceous chondrites, Y-86789 and Murchison. No rotational variation was detected in the spectra of 1996 FG3, which means there may not be any heterogeneities on the surface of the primary. However, a clear phase reddening effect was observed in our data, confirming findings from previous ground-based studies., Comment: 18 pages, 8 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in the Planetary Science Journal

The apparent magnitude of elongated small bodies is time-dependent over their rotation phase. Therefore, previously undiscovered aspherical minor planets may experience a shape-driven selection effect in systematic surveys versus their spherical counterparts. In this study, we conduct injection-recovery exercises of synthetic asteroid lightcurves using a simple model to quantify the effect of varying axial ratio on detection efficiencies. We find that high-amplitude lightcurves are confronted with adverse selection effects for survey cadences and discovery thresholds for constructing tracklets that are representative of modern and proposed future NEO searches. Furthermore, we illustrate the possible hazards of drawing population-level inferences on an underlying reservoir of elongated small bodies. If physical size and characteristic axial ratios are correlated, then size-frequency distributions may require revision at small diameters. In particular, this effect could alter the estimated populations of near-Earth objects. We conclude by discussing the applicability of our results to various other classes of solar system minor planets and interstellar interlopers, as well as discuss future work that may further interrogate this detection bias., Comment: 21 pages, 10 figure, 1 table. Accepted for publication in Icarus. (small typo fixed in v2)

The NASA Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (Rubin), will transform our view of the wide-field sky, with similar sensitivities, but complementary in wavelength, spatial resolution, and time domain coverage. Here we present findings from the AURA Roman+Rubin Synergy Working group, charged by the STScI and NOIRLab Directors to identify frontier science questions in General Astrophysics, beyond the well-covered areas of Dark Energy and Cosmology, that can be uniquely addressed with Roman and Rubin synergies in observing strategy, data products and archiving, joint analysis, and community engagement. This analysis was conducted with input from the community in the form of brief (1-2 paragraph) "science pitches" (see Appendix), and testimony from "outside experts" (included as co-authors). We identify a rich and broad landscape of potential discoveries catalyzed by the combination of exceptional quality and quantity of Roman and Rubin data, and summarize implementation requirements that would facilitate this bounty of additional science with coordination of survey fields, joint coverage of the Galactic plane, bulge, and ecliptic, expansion of General Investigator and Target of Opportunity observing modes, co-location of Roman and Rubin data, and timely distribution of data, transient alerts, catalogs, value-added joint analysis products, and simulations to the broad astronomical community., Comment: 29 pages, 12 figures, Table of Implementation Recommendations, Appendix of Community Science Pitches, AURA-commissioned whitepaper submitted to the Director of STScI (Ken Sembach) and the Director of NOIRLab (Pat McCarthy)

The compositional and morphological evolution of minor bodies in the Solar System is primarily driven by the evolution of their heliocentric distances, as the level of incident solar radiation regulates cometary activity. We investigate the dynamical transfer of Centaurs into the inner Solar System, facilitated by mean motion resonances with Jupiter and Saturn. The recently discovered object, P/2019 LD2, will transition from the Centaur region to the inner Solar System in 2063. In order to contextualize LD2, we perform N-body simulations of a population of Centaurs and JFCs. Objects between Jupiter and Saturn with Tisserand parameter $T_J\sim$3 are transferred onto orbits with perihelia $q<4$au within the next 1000 years with notably high efficiency. Our simulations show that there may be additional LD2-like objects transitioning into the inner Solar System in the near-term future, all of which have low $\Delta$V with respect to Jupiter. We calculate the distribution of orbital elements resulting from a single Jovian encounter and show that objects with initial perihelia close to Jupiter are efficiently scattered to $q<4$au. Moreover, approximately $55\%$ of the transitioning objects in our simulated population experience at least 1 Jovian encounter prior to reaching $q<4$au. We demonstrate that a spacecraft stationed near Jupiter would be well-positioned to rendezvous, orbit match, and accompany LD2 into the inner Solar System, providing an opportunity to observe the onset of intense activity in a pristine comet $\textit{in situ}$. Finally, we discuss the prospect of identifying additional targets for similar measurements with forthcoming observational facilities., Comment: 23 pages, 17 figures, accepted for publication at PSJ

Here we revisit an initial orbit determination method introduced by O. F. Mossotti employing four geocentric sky-plane observations and a linear equation to compute the angular momentum of the observed body. We then extend the method to topocentric observations, yielding a quadratic equation for the angular momentum. The performance of the two versions are compared through numerical tests with synthetic asteroid data using different time intervals between consecutive observations and different astrometric errors. We also show a comparison test with Gauss's method using simulated observations with the expected cadence of the VRO-LSST telescope., Comment: 22 pages, 9 figures

We report on our detailed characterization of Earth's second known temporary natural satellite, or minimoon, asteroid 2020 CD3. An artificial origin can be ruled out based on its area-to-mass ratio and broadband photometry, which suggest that it is a silicate asteroid belonging to the S or V complex in asteroid taxonomy. The discovery of 2020 CD3 allows for the first time a comparison between known minimoons and theoretical models of their expected physical and dynamical properties. The estimated diameter of 1.2+0.4-0.2 m and geocentric capture approximately a decade after the first known minimoon, 2006 RH120, are in agreement with theoretical predictions. The capture duration of 2020 CD3 of at least 2.7 yr is unexpectedly long compared to the simulation average, but it is in agreement with simulated minimoons that have close lunar encounters, providing additional support for the orbital models. 2020 CD3's atypical rotation period, significantly longer than theoretical predictions, suggests that our understanding of meter-scale asteroids needs revision. More discoveries and a detailed characterization of the population can be expected with the forthcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time., Comment: 22 pages, 6 Figures, 5 Tables, to appear in the Astronomical Journal

We extend the most recent orbital and absolute magnitude Near Earth Object (NEO) model (Granvik et al., 2018) to provide a statistical description of NEO geometric albedos. Our model is calibrated on NEOWISE albedo data for the NEO population and reproduces these data very well once a simple model for the NEOWISE observational biases is applied. The results are consistent with previous estimates. There are about 1,000 NEOs with diameter D>1km and the mean albedo to convert absolute magnitude into diameter is 0.147. We do not find any statistically significant evidence that the albedo distribution of NEOs depends on NEO size. Instead, we find evidence that the disruption of NEOs at small perihelion distances found in Granvik et al. (2016) occurs preferentially for dark NEOs. The interval between km-sized bodies striking the Earth should occur on average once every 750,000 years. Low and high albedo NEOs are well mixed in orbital space, but a trend remains with higher albedo objects being at smaller semimajor axes and lower albedo objects more likely found at larger semimajor axes., Comment: In press in Icarus

Earth's temporarily-captured orbiters (TCOs) are a sub-population of near-Earth objects (NEOs). TCOs can provide constraints for NEO population models in the 1--10-metre-diameter range, and they are outstanding targets for in situ exploration of asteroids due to a low requirement on $\Delta v$. So far there has only been a single serendipitous discovery of a TCO. Here we assess in detail the possibility of their discovery with the upcoming Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), previously identified as the primary facility for such discoveries. We simulated observations of TCOs by combining a synthetic TCO population with an LSST survey simulation. We then assessed the detection rates, detection linking and orbit computation, and sources for confusion. Typical velocities of detectable TCOs will range from 1$^{\circ}$/day to 50$^{\circ}$/day, and typical apparent $V$ magnitudes from 21 to 23. Potentially-hazardous asteroids have observational characteristics similar to TCOs, but the two populations can be distinguished based on their orbits with LSST data alone. We predict that a TCO can be discovered once every year with the baseline moving-object processing system (MOPS). The rate can be increased to one TCO discovery every two months if tools complementary to the baseline MOPS are developed for the specific purpose of discovering these objects., Comment: 26 pages, 9 figures

(modified from published version) Twelve years ago the Catalina Sky Survey discovered Earth's first known natural geocentric object other than the Moon, a few-meter diameter asteroid designated 2006 RH120. Despite significant improvements in ground-based telescope and detector technology in the past decade the asteroid surveys have not discovered another temporarily-captured orbiter (TCO; colloquially known as minimoons). Within a few years the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will either begin to regularly detect TCOs or force a re-analysis of the creation and dynamical evolution of small asteroids in the inner solar system. The first studies of the provenance, properties, and dynamics of Earth's minimoons suggested that there should be a steady state population with about one 1- to 2-meter diameter captured objects at any time. That model was then improved and extended to include the population of temporarily-captured flybys (TCFs), objects that fail to make an entire revolution around Earth while energetically bound to the Earth-Moon system. Several different techniques for discovering TCOs have been considered but their small diameters, proximity, and rapid motion make them challenging targets for existing ground-based optical, meteor, and radar surveys. We expect that if the TCO population is confirmed, and new objects are frequently discovered, they can provide new opportunities for 1) studying the dynamics of the Earth-Moon system, 2) testing models of the production and dynamical evolution of small asteroids from the asteroid belt, 3) rapid and frequent low delta-v missions to multiple minimoons, and 4) evaluating in-situ resource utilization techniques on asteroidal material. Here we review the past decade of minimoon studies in preparation for capitalizing on the scientific and commercial opportunities of TCOs in the first decade of LSST operations.

We introduce a new technique to estimate the comet nuclear size frequency distribution (SFD) that combines a cometary activity model with a survey simulation and apply it to 150 long period comets (LPC) detected by the Pan-STARRS1 near-Earth object survey. The debiased LPC size-frequency distribution is in agreement with previous estimates for large comets with nuclear diameter $>\sim 1$~km but we measure a significant drop in the SFD slope for small objects with diameters $<1$~km and approaching only $100$~m diameter. Large objects have a slope $\alpha_{big} = 0.72 \pm 0.09 (stat.) \pm 0.15 (sys.)$ while small objects behave as $\alpha_{small} = 0.07 \pm 0.03 (stat.) \pm 0.09 (sys.)$ where the SFD is $\propto 10^{\alpha H_N}$ and $H_N$ represents the cometary nuclear absolute magnitude. The total number of LPCs that are $>1$~km diameter and have perihelia $q<10$~au is $0.46 \pm 0.15 \times 10^9$ while there are only $2.4 \pm 0.5 (stat.) \pm 2 (sys.) \times 10^9$ objects with diameters $>100$~m due to the shallow slope of the SFD for diameters $<1$~m. We estimate that the total number of `potentially active' objects with diameters $\ge 1$~km in the Oort cloud, objects that would be defined as LPCs if their perihelia evolved to $<10$~au, is $(1.5\pm1)\times10^{12}$ with a combined mass of $1.3\pm0.9 \, M_{Earth}$. The debiased LPC orbit distribution is broadly in agreement with expectations from contemporary dynamical models but there are discrepancies that could point towards a future ability to disentangle the relative importance of stellar perturbations and galactic tides in producing the LPC population., Comment: accepted for publication in Icarus

We describe the digest2 software package, a fast, short-arc orbit classifier for small Solar System bodies. The digest2 algorithm has been serving the community for more than 13 years. The code provides a score, D2, which represents a pseudo-probability that a tracklet belongs to a given Solar System orbit type. digest2 is primarily used as a classifier for Near-Earth Object (NEO) candidates, to identify those to be prioritized for follow-up observation. We describe the historical development of digest2 and demonstrate its use on real and synthetic data. We find that digest2 can accurately and precisely distinguish NEOs from non- NEOs. At the time of detection, 14% of NEO tracklets and 98.5% of non-NEOs tracklets have D2 below the critical value of D2 = 65. 94% of our simulated NEOs achieved the maximum D2 = 100 and 99.6% of NEOs achieved $D2 \ge 65$ at least once during the simulated 10-year timeframe. We demonstrate that D2 varies as a function of time, rate of motion, magnitude and sky-plane location, and show that NEOs tend to have lower D2 at low Solar elongations close to the ecliptic. We use our findings to recommend future development directions for the digest2 code., Comment: 19 figures, 7 tables

As part of our multi-observatory, multi-filter campaign, we present \rmi color observations of 82 Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) obtained with the RATIR instrument on the 1.5m robotic telescope at the San Pedro Martir's National Observatory in Mexico. Our project is particularly focused on rapid response observations of small ($\lesssim 850$ m) NEOs. The rapid response and the use of spectrophotometry allows us to constrain the taxonomic classification of NEOs with high efficiency. Here we present the methodology of our observations and our result, suggesting that the ratio of C-type to S-type asteroids in a size range of $\sim$30-850m is 1.1, which is in accordance with our previous results. We also find that 10$\%$ of all NEOs in our sample are neither C- nor S-type asteroids, Comment: 31 pages, 4 tables, 10 figures

Using the first 18 months of the Pan-STARRS 1 survey we have identified 33 candidate high-amplitude objects for follow-up observations and carried out observations of 22 asteroids. 4 of the observed objects were found to have observed amplitude $A_{obs}\geq 1.0$ mag. We find that these high amplitude objects are most simply explained by single rubble pile objects with some density-dependent internal strength, allowing them to resist mass shedding even at their highly elongated shapes. 3 further objects although below the cut-off for 'high-amplitude' had a combination of elongation and rotation period which also may require internal cohesive strength, depending on the density of the body. We find that none of the 'high-amplitude asteroids' identified here require any unusual cohesive strengths to resist rotational fission. 3 asteroids were sufficiently observed to allow for shape and spin pole models to be determined through light curve inversion. 45864 was determined to have retrograde rotation with spin pole axes $\lambda=218\pm 10^{\circ}, \beta=-82\pm 5^{\circ}$ and asteroid 206167 was found to have best fit spin pole axes $\lambda= 57 \pm 5^{\circ}$, $\beta=-67 \pm 5^{\circ}$. An additional object not initially measured with $A_{obs}>1.0$ mag, 49257, was determined to have a shape model which does suggest a high-amplitude object. Its spin pole axes were best fit for values $\lambda=112\pm 6^{\circ}, \beta=6\pm 5^{\circ}$. In the course of this project to date no large super-fast rotators ($P_{rot} < 2.2$ h) have been identified., Comment: 31 pages; accepted by AJ

The debiased absolute-magnitude and orbit distributions as well as source regions for near-Earth objects (NEOs) provide a fundamental frame of reference for studies of individual NEOs and more complex population-level questions. We present a new four-dimensional model of the NEO population that describes debiased steady-state distributions of semimajor axis, eccentricity, inclination, and absolute magnitude $H$ in the range $17

The majority of known asteroid diameters are derived from thermal-infrared observations. Diameters are derived using asteroid thermal models that approximate their surface temperature distributions and compare the measured thermal-infrared flux with model-dependent predictions. The most commonly used thermal model is the Near-Earth Asteroid Thermal Model (NEATM), which is usually perceived as superior to other models like the Fast-Rotating Model (FRM). We investigate the applicability of the NEATM and the FRM to thermal-infrared observations of Near-Earth Objects using synthetic asteroids with properties based on the real Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) population. We find the NEATM to provide more accurate diameters and albedos than the FRM in most cases, with a few exceptions. The modeling results are barely affected by the physical properties of the objects, but we find a large impact of the solar phase angle on the modeling results. We conclude that the NEATM provides statistically more robust diameter estimates for NEAs observed at solar phase angles less than ~65{\deg}, while the FRM provides more robust diameter estimates for solar phase angles greater than ~65{\deg}. We estimate that <5% of all NEA diameters and albedos derived up to date are affected by systematic effects that are of the same order of magnitude as the typical thermal model uncertainties. We provide statistical correction functions for diameters and albedos derived using the NEATM and FRM as a function of solar phase angle., Comment: 25 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication in AJ

During the formation and evolution of the Solar System, significant numbers of cometary and asteroidal bodies were ejected into interstellar space$^{1,2}$. It can be reasonably expected that the same happened for planetary systems other than our own. Detection of such Inter- stellar Objects (ISOs) would allow us to probe the planetesimal formation processes around other stars, possibly together with the effects of long-term exposure to the interstellar medium. 1I/2017 U1 'Oumuamua is the first known ISO, discovered by the Pan-STARRS1 telescope in October 2017$^3$.The discovery epoch photometry implies a highly elongated body with radii of $\sim 200 \times 20$ m when a comet-like geometric albedo of 0.04 is assumed. Here we report spectroscopic characterisation of 'Oumuamua, finding it to be variable with time but similar to organically rich surfaces found in the outer Solar System. The observable ISO population is expected to be dominated by comet-like bodies in agreement with our spectra, yet the reported inactivity implies a lack of surface ice. We show this is consistent with predictions of an insulating mantle produced by long-term cosmic ray exposure. An internal icy composition cannot therefore be ruled out by the lack of activity, even though 'Oumuamua passed within 0.25 au of the Sun., Comment: 4 figures, 1 table; Accepted for publication in Nature Astronomy, data are available at https://github.com/asteroidnerd/Oumuamua-spectroscopy

Comet C/2017 K2 (PANSTARRS) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) Survey on 2017 May 21 at a distance 16.09 au from the Sun, the second most distant discovery of an active comet. Pre-discovery images in the PS1 archive back to 2014 and additional deep CFHT images between 2013 May 10-13 showed the comet to be active at 23.75 au. We derive an upper limit to the nucleus radius of $R_N$=80 km, assuming a 4\% albedo. The spectral reflectivity of the comet surface is similar to "fresh" regions seen on comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko using the $Rosetta$ OSIRIS camera. Pre-discovery photometry combined with new data obtained with Megacam on the CFHT show that the activity is consistent with CO-ice sublimation and inconsistent with CO$_2$-ice sublimation. The ice sublimation models were run out to perihelion in 2022 at 1.8 au to predict the CO production rates, assuming that the outgassing area does not change. Assuming a canonical 4\% active surface area for water-ice sublimation, we present production rate ratios, $Q_{\rm CO}$/$Q_{\rm H2O}$, for a range of nucleus sizes. Comparing these results with other CO-rich comets we derive a lower limit to the nucleus radius of $\sim$14 km. We present predictions for $Q_{\rm CO}$ at a range of distances that will be useful for planning observations with JWST and large ground-based facilities., Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures

We present deep imaging observations, orbital dynamics, and dust tail model analyses of the double-component asteroid P/2016 J1 (J1-A and J1-B). The observations were acquired at the Gran Telescopio Canarias (GTC) and the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT) from mid March to late July, 2016. A statistical analysis of backward-in-time integrations of the orbits of a large sample of clone objects of P/2016 J1-A and J1-B shows that the minimum separation between them occurred most likely $\sim$2300 days prior to the current perihelion passage, i.e., during the previous orbit near perihelion. This closest approach was probably linked to a fragmentation event of their parent body. Monte Carlo dust tail models show that those two components became active simultaneously $\sim$250 days before the current perihelion, with comparable maximum loss rates of $\sim$0.7 kg s$^{-1}$ and $\sim$0.5 kg s$^{-1}$, and total ejected masses of 8$\times$10$^{6}$ kg and 6$\times$10$^{6}$ kg for fragments J1-A and J1-B, respectively. In consequence, the fragmentation event and the present dust activity are unrelated. The simultaneous activation times of the two components and the fact that the activity lasted 6 to 9 months or longer, strongly indicate ice sublimation as the most likely mechanism involved in the dust emission process., Comment: Accepted by ApJ Letters, Feb. 17, 2017

We derived 90% confidence limits (CL) on the interstellar number density ($\rho_{IS}^{CL}$) of interstellar objects (ISO; comets and asteroids) as a function of the slope of their size-frequency distribution and limiting absolute magnitude. To account for gravitational focusing, we first generated a quasi-realistic ISO population to ~750 au from the Sun and propagated it forward in time to generate a steady state population of ISOs with heliocentric distance <50 au. We then simulated the detection of the synthetic ISOs using pointing data for each image and average detection efficiencies for each of three contemporary solar system surveys --- PS1, the Mt. Lemmon Survey, and the Catalina Sky Survey. These simulations allowed us to determine the surveys' combined ISO detection efficiency under several different but realistic modes of identifying ISOs in the survey data. Some of the synthetic detected ISOs had eccentricities as small as 1.01 --- in the range of the largest eccentricities of several known comets. Our best CL of $\rho_{IS}^{CL} = 1.4 \times 10^{-4}$ au$^{-3}$ implies that the expectation that extra-solar systems form like our solar system, eject planetesimals in the same way, and then distribute them throughout the galaxy, is too simplistic, or that the SFD or behavior of ISOs as they pass through our solar system is far from expectations., Comment: accepted for publication in AJ

We determine the absolute magnitude (H) distribution (or size-frequency distribution, SFD; $N(H) \propto 10^{\alpha H}$ where $\alpha$ is the slope of the distribution) for near-Earth objects (NEO) with $1322$. There is also another change in slope from steep to shallow around H=27. The three ARM target candidates detected by Pan-STARRS1 in one year of surveying have a corrected SFD with slope $\alpha = 0.40^{+0.33}_{-0.45}$. We also show that the window for follow up observations of small (H$\gtrsim$22) NEOs with the NASA IRTF telescope and Arecibo and Goldstone radars are extremely short - on order of days, and procedures for fast response must be implemented in order to measure physical characteristics of small Earth-approaching objects. CFHT's MegaCam and Pan-STARRS1 have longer observing windows and are capable of following-up more NEOs due to their deeper limiting magnitudes and wider fields of view., Comment: 48 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables

Although the majority of Centaurs are thought to have originated in the scattered disk, with the high-inclination members coming from the Oort cloud, the origin of the high inclination component of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) remains uncertain. We report the discovery of a retrograde TNO, which we nickname "Niku", detected by the Pan-STARRS 1 Outer Solar System Survey. Our numerical integrations show that the orbital dynamics of Niku are very similar to that of 2008 KV$_{42}$ (Drac), with a half-life of $\sim 500$ Myr. Comparing similar high inclination TNOs and Centaurs ($q > 10$ AU, $a < 100$ AU and $i > 60^\circ$), we find that these objects exhibit a surprising clustering of ascending node, and occupy a common orbital plane. This orbital configuration has high statistical significance: 3.8-$\sigma$. An unknown mechanism is required to explain the observed clustering. This discovery may provide a pathway to investigate a possible reservoir of high-inclination objects., Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in ApJ Letters

We present the results of a Monte Carlo technique to calculate the absolute magnitudes (H) and slope parameters (G) of about 240000 asteroids observed by the Pan-STARRS1 telescope during the first 15 months of its 3-year all-sky survey mission. The system's exquisite photometry with photometric errors < 0.04 mag, and well-defined filter and photometric system, allowed us to derive accurate H and G even with a limited number of observations and restricted range in phase angles. Our Monte Carlo method simulates each asteroid's rotation period, amplitude and color to derive the most-likely H and G, but its major advantage is in estimating realistic statistical+systematic uncertainties and errors on each parameter. The method was tested by comparison with the well-established and accurate results for about 500 asteroids provided by Pravec et al. (2012) and then applied to determining H and G for the Pan-STARRS1 asteroids using both the Muinonen et al. (2010) and Bowell et al. (1989) phase functions. Our results confirm the bias in MPC photometry discovered by (Juric et al. 2002)., Comment: 13 figures, 7 tables

Asteroid surveys are the backbone of asteroid science, and with this in mind we begin with a broad review of the impact of asteroid surveys on our field. We then provide a brief history of asteroid discoveries so as to place contemporary and future surveys in perspective. Surveys in the United States have discovered the vast majority of the asteroids and this dominance has been consolidated since the publication of Asteroids III. Our descriptions of the asteroid surveys that have been operational since that time are focussed upon those that have contributed the vast majority of asteroid observations and discoveries. We also provide some insight into upcoming next-generation surveys that are sure to alter our understanding of the small bodies in the inner solar system and provide evidence to untangle their complicated dynamical and physical histories. The Minor Planet Center, the nerve center of the asteroid discovery effort, has improved its operations significantly in the past decade so that it can manage the increasing discovery rate, and ensure that it is well-placed to handle the data rates expected in the next decade. We also consider the difficulties associated with astrometric follow-up of newly identified objects. It seems clear that both of these efforts must operate in new modes in order to keep pace with expected discovery rates of next-generation ground- and space-based surveys., Comment: Chapter to appear in the book ASTEROIDS IV, (University of Arizona Press) Space Science Series, edited by P. Michel, F. DeMeo and W. Bottke

We analyze 760475 observations of 333026 main-belt objects obtained by the Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) survey telescope between 2012 May 20 and 2013 November 9, a period during which PS1 discovered two main-belt comets, P/2012 T1 (PANSTARRS) and P/2013 R3 (Catalina-PANSTARRS). PS1 comet detection procedures currently consist of the comparison of the point spread functions (PSFs) of moving objects to those of reference stars, and the flagging of objects that show anomalously large radial PSF widths. Based on the number of missed discovery opportunities among comets discovered by other observers, we estimate an upper limit comet discovery efficiency rate of ~70% for PS1. Additional analyses that could improve comet discovery yields in future surveys include linear PSF analysis, modeling of trailed stellar PSFs for comparison to trailed moving object PSFs, searches for azimuthally localized activity, comparison of point-source-optimized photometry to extended-source-optimized photometry, searches for photometric excesses in objects with known absolute magnitudes, and crowd-sourcing. Analysis of PS1 survey statistics indicates an expected fraction of 59 MBCs per 10^6 outer main-belt asteroids, and a 95% confidence upper limit of 96 MBCs per 10^6 outer main-belt asteroids. We note that more sensitive future surveys could detect many more MBCs than estimated here. We find an excess of high eccentricities (0.1 < e < 0.3) among all known MBCs relative to the background asteroid population. Theoretical calculations show that, given these eccentricities, the sublimation rate for a typical MBC is orders of magnitude larger at perihelion than at aphelion, providing a plausible physical explanation for the observed behavior of MBCs peaking in observed activity strength near perihelion., Comment: 38 pages, 14 figures; accepted for publication in Icarus

We have calculated 90% confidence limits on the steady-state rate of catastrophic disruptions of main belt asteroids in terms of the absolute magnitude at which one catastrophic disruption occurs per year (HCL) as a function of the post-disruption increase in brightness (delta m) and subsequent brightness decay rate (tau). The confidence limits were calculated using the brightest unknown main belt asteroid (V = 18.5) detected with the Pan-STARRS1 (Pan-STARRS1) telescope. We measured the Pan-STARRS1's catastrophic disruption detection efficiency over a 453-day interval using the Pan-STARRS moving object processing system (MOPS) and a simple model for the catastrophic disruption event's photometric behavior in a small aperture centered on the catastrophic disruption event. Our simplistic catastrophic disruption model suggests that delta m = 20 mag and 0.01 mag d-1 < tau < 0.1 mag d-1 which would imply that H0 = 28 -- strongly inconsistent with H0,B2005 = 23.26 +/- 0.02 predicted by Bottke et al. (2005) using purely collisional models. We postulate that the solution to the discrepancy is that > 99% of main belt catastrophic disruptions in the size range to which this study was sensitive (100 m) are not impact-generated, but are instead due to fainter rotational breakups, of which the recent discoveries of disrupted asteroids P/2013 P5 and P/2013 R3 are probable examples. We estimate that current and upcoming asteroid surveys may discover up to 10 catastrophic disruptions/year brighter than V = 18.5., Comment: 61 Pages, 10 Figures, 3 Tables

We present the results of a search for the reactivation of active asteroid 176P/LINEAR during its 2011 perihelion passage using deep optical observations obtained before, during, and after that perihelion passage. Deep composite images of 176P constructed from data obtained between June 2011 and December 2011 show no visible signs of activity, while photometric measurements of the object during this period also show no significant brightness enhancements similar to that observed for 176P between November 2005 and December 2005 when it was previously observed to be active. An azimuthal search for dust emission likewise reveals no evidence for directed emission (i.e., a tail, as was previously observed for 176P), while a one-dimensional surface brightness profile analysis shows no indication of a spherically symmetric coma at any time in 2011. We conclude that 176P did not in fact exhibit activity in 2011, at least not on the level on which it exhibited activity in 2005, and suggest that this could be due to the devolatization or mantling of the active site responsible for its activity in 2005., Comment: 17 pages, 9 figures; published in AJ

We present a study on the discoverability of temporarily captured orbiters (TCOs) by present day or near-term anticipated ground-based and space-based facilities. TCOs (Granvik et al. 2012) are potential targets for spacecraft ren- dezvous or human exploration (Chyba et al. 2014) and provide an opportunity to study the population of the smallest asteroids in the solar system. We find that present day ground-based optical surveys such as Pan-STARRS and ATLAS can discover the largest TCOs over years of operation. A targeted survey conducted with the Subaru telescope can discover TCOs in the 0.5 m to 1.0 m diameter size range in about 5 nights of observing. Furthermore, we discuss the application of space-based infrared surveys, such as NEOWISE, and ground-based meteor detection systems such as CAMS, CAMO and ASGARD in discovering TCOs. These systems can detect TCOs but at a uninteresting rate. Finally, we discuss the application of bi-static radar at Arecibo and Green Bank to discover TCOs. Our radar simulations are strongly dependent on the rotation rate distribution of the smallest asteroids but with an optimistic distribution we find that these systems have > 80% chance of detecting a > 10 cm diameter TCO in about 40 h of operation., Comment: 44 Pages, 14 Figures, 1 Table

We have calculated the coherence and detectable lifetimes of synthetic near-Earth object (NEO) families created by catastrophic disruption of a progenitor as it suffers a very close Earth approach. The closest or slowest approaches yield the most violent `s-class' disruption events. We found that the average slope of the absolute magnitude (H) distribution, $N(H)\propto10^{(0.55\pm0.04)\,H}$, for the fragments in the s-class families is steeper than the slope of the NEO population \citep{mainzer2011} in the same size range. The families remain coherent as statistically significant clusters of orbits within the NEO population for an average of $\bar\tau_c = (14.7\pm0.6)\times10^3$ years after disruption. The s-class families are detectable with the techniques developed by \citet{fu2005} and \citet{Schunova2012} for an average duration ($\bar\tau_{det}$) ranging from about 2,000 to about 12,000 years for progenitors in the absolute magnitude ($H_p$) range from 20 to 13 corresponding to diameters in the range from about 0.5 to 10$\km$ respectively. The short detectability lifetime explains why zero NEO families have been discovered to-date. Nonetheless, every tidal disruption event of a progenitor with D$>0.5\km$ is capable of producing several million fragments in the $1\meter$ to $10\meter$ diameter range that can contribute to temporary local density enhancements of small NEOs in Earth's vicinity. We expect that there are about 1,200 objects in the steady state NEO population in this size range due to tidal disruption assuming that one $1\km$ diameter NEO tidally disrupts at Earth every 2,500 years. These objects may be suitable targets for asteroid retrieval missions due to their Earth-like orbits with corresponding low $v_{\infty}$. The fragments from the tidal disruptions at Earth have $\sim5\times$ the collision probability with Earth compared to the background NEO population., Comment: 60 pages, 16 figures

We study the time evolution of the impact probability for synthetic but realistic impacting and close approaching asteroids detected in a simulated all-sky survey. We use the impact probability to calculate the impact warning time as the time interval between when an object reaches a Palermo Scale value of -2 and when it impacts Earth. A simple argument shows that warning time ~ D^x with the exponent in the range [1.0,1.5] and our derived value was $x=1.3\pm0.1$. The low-precision astrometry from the single simulated all-sky survey could require many days or weeks to establish an imminent impact for asteroids >100m diameter that are discovered far from Earth. Most close approaching asteroids are quickly identified as not being impactors but a size-dependent percentage, even for those >50m diameter, have a persistent impact probability of >10^{-6} on the day of closest approach. Thus, a single all-sky survey can be of tremendous value in identifying Earth impacting and close approaching asteroids in advance of their closest approach but it can not solve the problem on its own: high-precision astrometry from other optical or radar systems is necessary to rapidly establish an object as an impactor or close approacher. We show that the parallax afforded by surveying the sky from two sites is only of benefit for a small fraction of the smallest objects detected within a couple days before impact: probably not enough to justify the increased operating costs of a 2-site survey. Finally, the survey cadence within a fixed time span is relatively unimportant to the impact probability calculation. We tested three different reasonable cadences and found that one provided ~10x higher (better) value for the impact probability on the discovery night for the smallest (10m diameter) objects but the consequences on the overall impact probability calculation is negligible., Comment: 11 figures

We report photometric observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained during the time period immediately after discovery (r=6.28 AU) until it moved into solar conjunction in mid-2013 June using the UH2.2m, and Gemini North 8-m telescopes on Mauna Kea, the Lowell 1.8m in Flagstaff, the Calar Alto 1.2m telescope in Spain, the VYSOS-5 telescopes on Mauna Loa Hawaii and data from the CARA network. Additional pre-discovery data from the Pan STARRS1 survey extends the light curve back to 2011 September 30 (r=9.4 AU). The images showed a similar tail morphology due to small micron sized particles throughout 2013. Observations at sub-mm wavelengths using the JCMT on 15 nights between 2013 March 9 (r=4.52 AU) and June 16 (r=3.35 AU) were used to search for CO and HCN rotation lines. No gas was detected, with upper limits for CO ranging between (3.5-4.5)E27 molec/s. Combined with published water production rate estimates we have generated ice sublimation models consistent with the photometric light curve. The inbound light curve is likely controlled by sublimation of CO2. At these distances water is not a strong contributor to the outgassing. We also infer that there was a long slow outburst of activity beginning in late 2011 peaking in mid-2013 January (r~5 AU) at which point the activity decreased again through 2013 June. We suggest that this outburst was driven by CO injecting large water ice grains into the coma. Observations as the comet came out of solar conjunction seem to confirm our models., Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables

We propose a new Kepler mission, called NEOKepler, that would survey near Earth's orbit to identify potentially hazardous objects (PHOs). To understand its surveying power, Kepler's large field of view produces an 'etendue' (A*Omega) that is 4.5 times larger than the best survey telescope currently in operation. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of NEOKepler using a double "fence post" survey pattern that efficiently detects PHOs. In a simulated 12-month survey, we estimate that NEOKepler would detect ~150 new NEOs with absolute magnitudes of less than 21.5, ~50 of which would be new PHOs. This would increase the annual PHO discovery rate by at least 50% and improve upon our goal of discovering 90% of PHOs by the end of 2020. Due to its heliocentric orbit, Kepler would also be sensitive to objects inside Earth's orbit, discovering more objects in its first year than are currently known to exist. Understanding this undersampled sub-population of NEOs will reveal new insights into the actual PHO distribution by further constraining current NEO models. As an alternative science goal, NEOKepler could employ a different observing strategy to discover suitable targets for NASA's Asteroid Redirect Mission., Comment: This submission is in response to Kepler's call for white papers; 10 pages

We present initial results from observations and numerical analyses aimed at characterizing main-belt comet P/2012 T1 (PANSTARRS). Optical monitoring observations were made between October 2012 and February 2013 using the University of Hawaii 2.2 m telescope, the Keck I telescope, the Baade and Clay Magellan telescopes, Faulkes Telescope South, the Perkins Telescope at Lowell Observatory, and the Southern Astrophysical Research (SOAR) telescope. The object's intrinsic brightness approximately doubles from the time of its discovery in early October until mid-November and then decreases by ~60% between late December and early February, similar to photometric behavior exhibited by several other main-belt comets and unlike that exhibited by disrupted asteroid (596) Scheila. We also used Keck to conduct spectroscopic searches for CN emission as well as absorption at 0.7 microns that could indicate the presence of hydrated minerals, finding an upper limit CN production rate of QCN<1.5x10^23 mol/s, from which we infer a water production rate of QH2O<5x10^25 mol/s, and no evidence of the presence of hydrated minerals. Numerical simulations indicate that P/2012 T1 is largely dynamically stable for >100 Myr and is unlikely to be a recently implanted interloper from the outer solar system, while a search for potential asteroid family associations reveal that it is dynamically linked to the ~155 Myr-old Lixiaohua asteroid family., Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ Letters

We describe the Pan-STARRS Moving Object Processing System (MOPS), a modern software package that produces automatic asteroid discoveries and identifications from catalogs of transient detections from next-generation astronomical survey telescopes. MOPS achieves > 99.5% efficiency in producing orbits from a synthetic but realistic population of asteroids whose measurements were simulated for a Pan-STARRS4-class telescope. Additionally, using a non-physical grid population, we demonstrate that MOPS can detect populations of currently unknown objects such as interstellar asteroids. MOPS has been adapted successfully to the prototype Pan-STARRS1 telescope despite differences in expected false detection rates, fill-factor loss and relatively sparse observing cadence compared to a hypothetical Pan-STARRS4 telescope and survey. MOPS remains >99.5% efficient at detecting objects on a single night but drops to 80% efficiency at producing orbits for objects detected on multiple nights. This loss is primarily due to configurable MOPS processing limits that are not yet tuned for the Pan-STARRS1 mission. The core MOPS software package is the product of more than 15 person-years of software development and incorporates countless additional years of effort in third-party software to perform lower-level functions such as spatial searching or orbit determination. We describe the high-level design of MOPS and essential subcomponents, the suitability of MOPS for other survey programs, and suggest a road map for future MOPS development., Comment: 57 Pages, 26 Figures, 13 Tables

Asteroid detections in astronomical images may appear as trails due to a combination of their apparent rate of motion and exposure duration. Nearby asteroids in particular typically have high apparent rates of motion and acceleration. Their recovery, especially on their discovery apparition, depends upon obtaining good astrometry from the trailed detections. We present an analytic function describing a trailed detection under the assumption of a Gaussian point spread function (PSF) and constant rate of motion. We have fit the function to both synthetic and real trailed asteroid detections from the Pan-STARRS1 survey telescope to obtain accurate astrometry and photometry. For short trails our trailing function yields the same astrometric and photometry accuracy as a functionally simpler 2-d Gaussian but the latter underestimates the length of the trail - a parameter that can be important for measuring the object's rate of motion and assessing its cometary activity. For trails longer than about 10 pixels (> 3xPSF) our trail fitting provides 3-times better astrometric accuracy and up to 2 magnitudes improvement in the photometry. The trail fitting algorithm can be implemented at the source detection level for all detections to provide trail length and position angle that can be used to reduce the false tracklet rate., Comment: 42 pages, 19 figures

We report on our search for genetically related asteroids amongst the near-Earth object (NEO) population - families of NEOs akin to the well known main belt asteroid families. We used the technique proposed by Fu et al. (2005) supplemented with a detailed analysis of the statistical significance of the detected clusters. Their significance was assessed by comparison to identical searches performed on 1,000 'fuzzy-real' NEO orbit distribution models that we developed for this purpose. The family-free 'fuzzy-real' NEO models maintain both the micro and macro distribution of 5 orbital elements (ignoring the mean anomaly). Three clusters were identified that contain four or more NEOs but none of them are statistically significant at \geq 3{\sigma}. The most statistically significant cluster at the \sim 2{\sigma} level contains 4 objects with H < 20 and all members have long observational arcs and concomitant good orbital elements. Despite the low statistical significance we performed several other tests on the cluster to determine if it is likely a genetic family. The tests included examining the cluster's taxonomy, size-frequency distribution, consistency with a family-forming event during tidal disruption in a close approach to Mars, and whether it is detectable in a proper element cluster search. None of these tests exclude the possibility that the cluster is a family but neither do they confirm the hypothesis. We conclude that we have not identified any NEO families., Comment: 36 pages, 3 tables, 9 figures, accepted for publication

Main belt asteroid (300163) 2006 VW139 (later designated P/2006 VW139) was discovered to exhibit comet-like activity by the Pan-STARRS1 survey telescope using automated point-spread-function analyses performed by PS1's Moving Object Processing System. Deep follow-up observations show both a short (\sim 10") antisolar dust tail and a longer (\sim 60") dust trail aligned with the object's orbit plane, similar to the morphology observed for another main-belt comet, P/2010 R2 (La Sagra), and other well-established comets, implying the action of a long-lived, sublimation-driven emission event. Photometry showing the brightness of the near-nucleus coma remaining constant over \sim 30 days provides further evidence for this object's cometary nature, suggesting it is in fact a main-belt comet, and not a disrupted asteroid. A spectroscopic search for CN emission was unsuccessful, though we find an upper limit CN production rate of Q_CN < 1.3x10^24 mol/s, from which we infer a water production rate of Q_H2O < 10^26 mol/s. We also find an approximately linear optical spectral slope of 7.2%/1000A, similar to other cometary dust comae. Numerical simulations indicate that P/2006 VW139 is dynamically stable for > 100 Myr, while a search for a potential asteroid family around the object reveals a cluster of 24 asteroids within a cutoff distance of 68 m/s. At 70 m/s, this cluster merges with the Themis family, suggesting that it could be similar to the Beagle family to which another main-belt comet, 133P/Elst-Pizarro, belongs., Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ Letters

The discovery of new objects in modern wide-field asteroid and comet surveys can be enhanced by first identifying observations belonging to known solar system objects. The assignation of new observations to a known object is an attribution problem that occurs when a least squares orbit already exists for the object but a separate fit is not possible to just the set of new observations. In this work we explore the strongly asymmetric attribution problem in which the existing least squares orbit is very well constrained and the new data are sparse. We describe an attribution algorithm that introduces new quality control metrics in the presence of strong biases in the astrometric residuals. The main biases arise from the stellar catalogs used in the reduction of asteroid observations and we show that a simple debiasing with measured regional catalog biases significantly improves the results. We tested the attribution algorithm using data from the PS1 survey that used the 2MASS star catalog for the astrometric reduction. We found small but statistically significant biases in the data of up to 0.1 arcsec that are relevant only when the observations reach the level of accuracy made possible by instruments like PS1. The false attribution rate was measured to be < 1/1,000 with a simple additional condition that can reduce it to zero while the attribution efficiency is consistent with 100%., Comment: 29 pages, 8 figures, 2 tables

We have for the first time calculated the population characteristics of the Earth's irregular natural satellites (NES) that are temporarily captured from the near-Earth-object (NEO) population. The steady-state NES size-frequency and residence-time distributions were determined under the dynamical influence of all the massive bodies in the solar system (but mainly the Sun, Earth, and Moon) for NEOs of negligible mass. To this end, we compute the NES capture probability from the NEO population as a function of the latter's heliocentric orbital elements and combine those results with the current best estimates for the NEO size-frequency and orbital distribution. At any given time there should be at least one NES of 1-meter diameter orbiting the Earth. The average temporarily-captured orbiter (TCO; an object that makes at least one revolution around the Earth in a co-rotating coordinate system) completes $(2.88\pm0.82)\rev$ around the Earth during a capture event that lasts $(286\pm18)\days$. We find a small preference for capture events starting in either January or July. Our results are consistent with the single known natural TCO, 2006 RH$_{120}$, a few-meter diameter object that was captured for about a year starting in June 2006. We estimate that about 0.1% of all meteors impacting the Earth were TCOs., Comment: 63 pages, 29 figures. Accepted for publication in Icarus (December 13, 2011)

We present observations of comet-like main-belt object P/2010 R2 (La Sagra) obtained by Pan-STARRS 1 and the Faulkes Telescope-North on Haleakala in Hawaii, the University of Hawaii 2.2 m, Gemini-North, and Keck I telescopes on Mauna Kea, the Danish 1.54 m telescope at La Silla, and the Isaac Newton Telescope on La Palma. An antisolar dust tail is observed from August 2010 through February 2011, while a dust trail aligned with the object's orbit plane is also observed from December 2010 through August 2011. Assuming typical phase darkening behavior, P/La Sagra is seen to increase in brightness by >1 mag between August 2010 and December 2010, suggesting that dust production is ongoing over this period. These results strongly suggest that the observed activity is cometary in nature (i.e., driven by the sublimation of volatile material), and that P/La Sagra is therefore the most recent main-belt comet to be discovered. We find an approximate absolute magnitude for the nucleus of H_R=17.9+/-0.2 mag, corresponding to a nucleus radius of ~0.7 km, assuming an albedo of p=0.05. Using optical spectroscopy, we find no evidence of sublimation products (i.e., gas emission), finding an upper limit CN production rate of Q_CN<6x10^23 mol/s, from which we infer an H2O production rate of Q_H2O<10^26 mol/s. Numerical simulations indicate that P/La Sagra is dynamically stable for >100 Myr, suggesting that it is likely native to its current location and that its composition is likely representative of other objects in the same region of the main belt, though the relatively close proximity of the 13:6 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter and the (3,-2,-1) three-body mean-motion resonance with Jupiter and Saturn mean that dynamical instability on larger timescales cannot be ruled out., Comment: 23 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in AJ

We provide evidence of consistency between the dynamical evolution of main belt asteroids and their color evolution due to space weathering. The dynamical age of an asteroid's surface \citep{bib.bot05a,bib.nes05} is the time since its last catastrophic disruption event which is a function of the object's diameter. The age of an S-complex asteroid's surface may also be determined from its color using a space weathering model \citep[e.g.][]{bib.wil10,bib.jed04,bib.wil08,bib.mar06}. We used a sample of 95 S-complex asteroids from SMASS and obtained their absolute magnitudes and $u,g,r,i,z$ filter magnitudes from SDSS. The absolute magnitudes yield a size-derived age distribution. The $u,g,r,i,z$ filter magnitudes lead to the principal component color which yields a color-derived age distribution by inverting our color-age relationship, an enhanced version of the `dual $\tau$' space weathering model of \citet{bib.wil10}. We fit the size-age distribution to the enhanced dual $\tau$ model and found characteristic weathering and gardening times of $\tau_w = 2050 \pm 80$ Myr and $\tau_g = 4400^{+700}_{-500}$ Myr respectively. The fit also suggests an initial principal component color of $-0.05 \pm 0.01$ for fresh asteroid surface with a maximum possible change of the probable color due to weathering of $\Delta PC = 1.34 \pm 0.04$. Our predicted color of fresh asteroid surface matches the color of fresh ordinary chondritic surface of $PC_1 = 0.17 \pm 0.39$., Comment: 23 pages, 5 figures, 1 table

We have extended our earlier work on space weathering of the youngest S-complex asteroid families to include results from asteroid clusters with ages <10^6 years and to newly identified asteroid pairs with ages <5x10^5 years. We have identified three S-complex asteroid clusters with ages in the range 10^{5-6} years. The average color of the objects in these clusters agree with the prediction of Willman et al., 2008. SDSS photometry of the members of very young asteroid pairs with ages <10^5 years was used to determine their taxonomy. The average color of the S-complex pairs is PC_1=0.49+/-0.03, over 5-sigma redder than predicted by Willman et al., 2008. Therefore, the most likely pair formation mechanism is gentle separation due to YORP spin-up leaving much of the aged and reddened surface undisturbed. In this case our color measurement allows us to set an upper limit of ~64% on the disturbed surface portion. Using pre-existing color data and our new results for the youngest S-complex asteroid clusters we have extended our space weather model to explicitly include the effects of regolith gardening and fit separate weathering and gardening characteristic timescales of tau_w=960+/-160My and tau_g=2000+/-290My respectively. The first principal component color for fresh S-complex material is 0.37+/-0.01 while the maximum amount of local reddening is 0.33+/-0.06. Our first-ever determination of the gardening time is in stark contrast to our calculated gardening time of tau_g~270My based on main belt impact rates and reasonable assumptions about crater and ejecta blanket sizes. A possible resolution for the discrepancy is through a `honeycomb' mechanism in which the surface regolith structure absorbs small impactors without producing significant ejecta. This mechanism could also account for the paucity of small craters on (433) Eros., Comment: 47 pages, 7 figures, 4 tables

We present the results of our Thousand Asteroid Light Curve Survey (TALCS) conducted with the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope in September 2006. Our untargeted survey detected 828 Main Belt asteroids to a limiting magnitude of g'~22.5 corresponding to a diameter range of 0.4 km <= D <= 10 km. Of these, 278 objects had photometry of sufficient quality to perform rotation period fits. We debiased the observations and light curve fitting process to determine the true distribution of rotation periods and light curve amplitudes of Main Belt asteroids. We confirm a previously reported excess in the fraction of fast rotators but find a much larger excess of slow rotating asteroids (~15% of our sample). A few percent of objects in the TALCS size range have large light curve amplitudes of ~1 mag. Fits to the debiased distribution of light curve amplitudes indicate that the distribution of triaxial ellipsoid asteroid shapes is proportional to the square of the axis-ratio, (b/a)^2, and may be bi-modal. Finally, we find six objects with rotation periods that may be less than 2 hours with diameters between 400 m and 1.5 km, well above the break-up limit for a gravitationally-bound aggregate. Our debiased data indicate that this population represents <4% of the Main Belt in the 1-10 km size range., Comment: Accepted to Icarus. Full tables to appear there in electronic format, or contact author

We have performed a simulation of a next generation sky survey's (Pan-STARRS 1) efficiency for detecting Earth-impacting asteroids. The steady-state sky-plane distribution of the impactors long before impact is concentrated towards small solar elongations (Chesley and Spahr, 2004) but we find that there is interesting and potentially exploitable behavior in the sky-plane distribution in the months leading up to impact. The next generation surveys will find most of the dangerous impactors (>140m diameter) during their decade-long survey missions though there is the potential to miss difficult objects with long synodic periods appearing in the direction of the Sun, as well as objects with long orbital periods that spend much of their time far from the Sun and Earth. A space-based platform that can observe close to the Sun may be needed to identify many of the potential impactors that spend much of their time interior to the Earth's orbit. The next generation surveys have a good chance of imaging a bolide like 2008TC3 before it enters the atmosphere but the difficulty will lie in obtaining enough images in advance of impact to allow an accurate pre-impact orbit to be computed., Comment: 47 pages, 16 figures, 2 tables