Search

We present a comprehensive, configurable open-source framework for estimating the rate of electromagnetic detection of kilonovae (KNe) associated with gravitational wave detections of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers. We simulate the current LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) observing run (O4) using up-to-date sensitivity and up-time values as well as the next observing run (O5) using predicted sensitivities. We find the number of discoverable kilonovae during LVK O4 to be ${ 1}_{- 1}^{+ 4}$ or ${ 2 }_{- 2 }^{+ 3 }$, (at 90% confidence) depending on the distribution of NS masses in coalescing binaries, with the number increasing by an order of magnitude during O5 to ${ 19 }_{- 11 }^{+ 24 }$. Regardless of mass model, we predict at most five detectable KNe (at 95% confidence) in O4. We also produce optical and near-infrared light curves that correspond to the physical properties of each merging system. We have collated important information for allocating observing resources and directing search and follow-up observations including distributions of peak magnitudes in several broad bands and timescales for which specific facilities can detect each KN. The framework is easily adaptable, and new simulations can quickly be produced as input information such as merger rates and NS mass distributions are refined. Finally, we compare our suite of simulations to the thus-far completed portion of O4 (as of October 14, 2023), finding a median number of discoverable KNe of 0 and a 95-percentile upper limit of 2, consistent with no detection so far in O4., Comment: 16 pages, 13 figures, submitted to MNRAS

We develop a robust and self-consistent framework to extract and classify gravitational wave candidates from noisy data, for the purpose of assisting in real-time multi-messenger follow-ups during LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA's fourth observing run~(O4). Our formalism implements several improvements to the low latency calculation of the probability of astrophysical origin~(\PASTRO{}), so as to correctly account for various factors such as the sensitivity change between observing runs, and the deviation of the recovered template waveform from the true gravitational wave signal that can strongly bias said calculation. We demonstrate the high accuracy with which our new formalism recovers and classifies gravitational wave triggers, by analyzing replay data from previous observing runs injected with simulated sources of different categories. We show that these improvements enable the correct identification of the majority of simulated sources, many of which would have otherwise been misclassified. We carry out the aforementioned analysis by implementing our formalism through the \GSTLAL{} search pipeline even though it can be used in conjunction with potentially any matched filtering pipeline. Armed with robust and self-consistent \PASTRO{} values, the \GSTLAL{} pipeline can be expected to provide accurate source classification information for assisting in multi-messenger follow-up observations to gravitational wave alerts sent out during O4., Comment: v2 upload was accidental. revert back to v1