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Abstract—The paper presents the results of a study of spatiotemporal variability of the characteristics of the wind field in the free atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere in the SEVIRI radiometer field of view of European geostationary meteorological satellites of the second generation Meteosat 8–Meteosat 11 in the time interval 2007–2021. It is noted that the maximum wind speeds, as well as the maximum average monthly and seasonal anomalies of the wind speed modulus, are observed over the Atlantic. A feature of the temporal variability of the area-averaged wind speed modulus is revealed, which consists in a change in the sign of the trend at the turn of 2015–2017 from positive to negative. At the same time, positive linear trends in the time intervals from 2007 to the points of a change in the sign of the trend over the Atlantic, the entire region under consideration and Eurasia, including the European territory of the Russian Federation, are significantly different from zero with a probability of more than 95% and the negative trend is significant only over the Atlantic. A high correlation was noted in the area of seasonal wind speed variations with the area of Arctic sea ice and temperature characteristics of the troposphere at levels of 500 and 200 hPa. Based on the analysis of the relationship between wind speed variability and the main climatic characteristics and large-scale atmospheric processes, a scheme is proposed for the effect of the accelerating reduction in the area of Arctic sea ice associated with global warming on wind speed in the free atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the spatiotemporal variations of the summer frequency of daytime–nighttime compound extreme high-temperature events (FCEHEs) in the mid–high latitudes of Asia (MHA) from 1979 to 2014. Results show that FCEHE has shown an upward trend with fluctuations, especially in Mongolia–Baikal. The descending anomaly caused by the anomalous high pressure over Mongolia–Baikal results in reduced cloud cover, which increases solar radiation reaching the ground, favoring the higher FCEHE. This process is consistent during the daytime and nighttime periods, with relatively limited nighttime solar radiation, potentially compensated by the increased downward longwave radiation to sustain the extreme high temperatures. This benefit process is closely connected with two main factors: the increased sea ice in the Barents Sea during spring and the anomalously warm sea surface temperature (SST) in the Northwest Pacific during summer. The increased sea ice can affect the Eurasia (EU) teleconnection, while the warm SST affects the Pacific-Japan/East Asia–Pacific pattern (PJ/EAP). Subsequently, these factors further modulate the circulation anomalies and then FCEHE. Significance Statement: This study provides valuable insights into the spatiotemporal variations and the possible underlying mechanisms for change in the frequency of daytime–nighttime compound extreme high-temperature events (FCEHEs) in the mid–high latitudes of Asia. The spring sea ice anomalies over the Barents Sea and summer sea surface temperature anomalies in the Northwest Pacific affect the local anticyclonic circulation in Mongolia–Baikal through Eurasia (EU) and Pacific-Japan/East Asia–Pacific (PJ/EAP) patterns, respectively. The resulting descending anomaly and reduced cloud cover contribute to interannual variations of FCEHE, which is highly similar during the daytime and nighttime periods. During the nighttime, when the solar radiation is relatively limited, the increased downward longwave radiation may compensate to sustain extreme high temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Gulf Stream (GS) ocean front releases intense moisture and heat to the atmosphere and regulates storm tracks and zonal jets in winter. The large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central North Atlantic provides important feedback to the atmosphere in winter, but the role played in this feedback by the GS front inside the SST anomaly has not been extensively studied. In this study, two sets of ensemble experiments were conducted using a global community atmosphere model forced by SST in boreal winters from 2000 to 2013. The regional averaged SST and its variation in the experiments were identical, with the only difference being the strength of the SST front in the GS region. The large-scale SST anomaly in the central North Atlantic in our model provides feedback to the atmosphere and excites a wave train that extends across Eurasia. With the inclusion of the strong GS front, the first center of the wave train in the North Atlantic is strengthened by approximately 40%, and the wave activity flux toward downstream is highly intensified. When the large-scale SST anomaly is combined with a strong GS front, greatly increased water vapor is released from the GS region, resulting in a 50% increase in moisture transport toward Western Europe. In this scenario, precipitation and diabatic heating both increase greatly on the western Scandinavian Peninsula. With the release of deep diabatic heating, a strong upward wave activity flux is triggered, and the wave train excited by the large-scale SST variation is significantly intensified. These findings suggest that the strong SST front in the large-scale SST anomaly in the central North Atlantic significantly amplifies its feedback to the atmosphere in winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the impact of intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) over mid-high-latitude Eurasia on stratosphere sudden warming (SSW) events during boreal winter is examined based on the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data. It is found that the dominant ISO periodicity is 10–30 days. By extended empirical orthogonal function, two leading ISO modes with opposite directions of westward and eastward propagation are extracted. Since the eastward-propagating mode was involved by previous studies, this study is focused on the westward-propagating one. As revealed, the westward-propagating ISO propagates from the Canadian Arctic Archipelago to western Europe, which is dominated by waves 1–2. The analysis of lead–lag correlation and phase division indicates that SSW events prefer to occur at the time of lagging the westward-propagating ISO phase 2 by 7–9 days. The diagnosis of the dynamic process of ISO impacting SSW suggests that during the westward journey of the ISO, the corresponding pattern leads to sea ice loss over the Barents–Kara Sea, which emanates upward-propagating planetary waves. At the same time, the ISO circulation expands the easterly anomalies, which weakens westerly flow that favors the planetary waves of wave 1 and wave 2 propagating upward into the stratosphere to affect the onset of SSW. By applying the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) reforecast data from the ECMWF model, the probability density functions of zonal wind anomaly verify the impact of westward-propagating ISO on SSW. significance statement: The intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) is a vital prediction source for the forecast of extreme weather and climate in both the troposphere and the stratosphere, but the relationship between the mid-high-latitude one and stratospheric extreme weather events lacks research. The purpose of this study is to understand how the ISO over mid-high-latitude Eurasia affects the stratosphere sudden warming (SSW). Our results find that the westward-propagating ISO can impact the onset of SSW events by leading to sea ice loss over the Barents–Kara Sea and the expansion of easterly anomalies. This provides a new clue for the extended-range forecast of SSW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous studies have identified the regional-scale climate response to tropical deforestation through changes to water, energy, and momentum fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. There has been little research, however, on the role of tropical deforestation on the global climate. Previous studies have focused on the climate response in the extratropics with little analysis of the mechanisms responsible for propagating the signal out of the tropics. A climate modeling study is presented of the physical processes that are important in transmitting a deforestation signal out of the tropics to the Northern Hemisphere extratropics in boreal winter. Using the Community Climate System Model, version 3 Integrated Biosphere Simulator (CCM3–IBIS) climate model and by imposing an exaggerated land surface forcing of complete tropical forest removal, the thermodynamic and dynamical atmospheric response is evaluated regionally within the tropics, globally as the climate signal propagates to the Northern Hemisphere, and then regionally in Eurasia where land–atmosphere feedbacks contribute to amplifying the climate signal and warming the surface and lower troposphere by 1–4 K. Model results indicate that removal of the tropical forests causes weakening of deep tropical convection that excites a Rossby wave train emanating northeastward away from the South American continent. Changes in European storm-track activity cause an intensification and northward shift in the Ferrel cell that leads to anomalous adiabatic warming over a broad region of Eurasia. Regional-scale land–atmosphere feedbacks are found to amplify the warming. While hypothetical, this approach illustrates the atmospheric mechanisms linking the tropics with Eurasia that may otherwise not be detectable with more realistic land-use change simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Light‐absorbing impurities such as mineral dust can play a major role in reducing the albedo of snow surfaces. Particularly in spring, deposited dust particles lead to increased snow melt and trigger further feedbacks at the land surface and in the atmosphere. Quantifying the extent of dust‐induced variations is difficult due to high variability in the spatial distribution of mineral dust and snow. We present an extension of a fully coupled atmospheric and land surface model system to address the impact of mineral dust on the snow albedo across Eurasia. We evaluated the short‐term effects of Saharan dust in a case study. To obtain robust results, we performed an ensemble simulation followed by statistical analysis. Mountainous regions showed a strong impact of dust deposition on snow depth. We found a mean significant reduction of −1.4 cm in the Caucasus Mountains after 1 week. However, areas with flat terrain near the snow line also showed strong effects despite lower dust concentrations. Here, the feedback to dust deposition was more pronounced as increase in surface temperature and air temperature. In the region surrounding the snow line, we found an average significant surface warming of 0.9 K after 1 week. This study shows that the impact of mineral dust deposition depends on several factors. Primarily, these are altitude, slope, snow depth, and snow cover fraction. Especially in complex terrain, it is therefore necessary to use fully coupled models to investigate the effects of mineral dust on snow pack and the atmosphere. Plain Language Summary: Dust particles such as Saharan dust can darken snow surfaces, leading to increased absorption of solar radiation. The result is earlier snow melt in the spring and a warming of the land surface. Predicting dust deposition and subsequent regional impacts is difficult because the distribution of snow and dust appears in complex patterns depending on the landscape. We extended an atmospheric and land surface model system to investigate the impact of Saharan dust particles across Eurasia during a Saharan dust transport event. We found that mountainous regions are particularly affected by the dust particles, leading to increased snowmelt. In addition, regions with thin and patchy snow cover show a strong response to the dust particles, mainly causing a warming of the land surface. We found that the effects of dust particles depend on different regional characteristics. Therefore, when investigating dust on snow, it is important to use model systems that represent both the atmospheric process and surface properties properly. Key Points: There are regional effects due to the high spatial variability in mineral dust and snow propertiesThin snow layers favor a rise in temperature, higher elevations mainly show accelerated snow meltWe found a significant impact on surface radiation, temperature and snow cover properties [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land–atmosphere coupling is a crucial factor influencing extreme weather and climate. Based on the ERA5‐Land reanalysis data set and sensitivity experiments with the CESM1.2.2 model, this study investigated the possible impacts of land–atmosphere coupling on low temperature extremes (LTEs) during fall and winter over southern Eurasia (SEA). The results suggested that LTEs show evident interdecadal variations in recent 60 years (1958–2017) and exhibit significant positive correlations with soil moisture anomalies based on the ERA5‐Land data set. Numerical simulations (the control run and sensitivity run with prescribed climatological soil moisture) isolated the effects of soil moisture‐related land surface processes and demonstrated that land–atmosphere coupling explains around 70% of temperature variability, increases the near‐surface air temperature by 0.81 K, and favors the reduction of LTEs by 8.20 d·yr−1. In the perturbation scenarios, the impacts of coupling on the frequency and spatial coverage of LTEs are more prominent. Further analysis revealed that the thermal cooling anomalies induced by the coupling could alter the atmospheric circulation, thereby affecting the frequency and intensity of LTEs. When the land–atmosphere interactions are weakened, the surface latent heat flux increases accompanied by intense evapotranspiration, while the sensible heat flux and net infrared radiation decrease. Land surface cooling is apparent, and it weakens with increasing altitude, along with geopotential height anomalies that are positive in the lower troposphere and weaker at higher altitudes. The northeasterly wind anomalies over the East European Plain facilitate the development of cold advection, providing a favorable circulation background for the generation of LTEs over SEA. Plain Language Summary: As a key land surface variable, soil moisture can affect the surface thermal conditions and regulate the surface energy exchange, further trigger anomalous atmospheric circulation, and lead to extreme weather and climate events. In recent 60 years (1958–2017), low temperature extremes (LTEs) have occurred at times over southern Eurasia (SEA) and exhibit close relationships with soil moisture anomalies. Several simulations were conducted to isolate the effects of soil moisture‐related land surface processes on LTEs. When the land–atmosphere interactions are restricted, the frequency and intensity of LTEs in fall and winter consistently increase over SEA. The effects of land–atmosphere coupling on LTEs are spatially consistent under different backgrounds, albeit with certain differences in the magnitude of increase. Further analysis revealed that land surface cooling is evident when land–atmosphere interactions are weakened. The surface latent heat flux increases accompanied by strong evapotranspiration, while the sensible heat flux and net infrared radiation decrease. The positive geopotential height anomalies and northeasterly wind anomalies over SEA facilitate the development of cold advection, which can contribute to more frequent and intense LTEs over SEA. Key Points: Low temperature extremes (LTEs) over southern Eurasia are closely related to soil moisture anomalies and land–atmosphere couplingLand–atmosphere coupling is conducive to LTEs reduction, and the stronger variations the coupling has, the greater impact on LTEs it exertsThermal effects of land–atmosphere coupling and their influence on atmospheric circulation are the key factors affecting LTEs [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine top of atmosphere (TOA), atmospheric, and surface energy budget components of 53 CMIP6 models for the period 2000–2009 on regional scales with respect to two reference data sets: the NASA Energy and Water cycle Study (NEWS), from which we adopt the regional decomposition, and the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF). Focusing on regional scale, CMIP6 models tend to have more energy entering or less energy leaving the climate systems at TOA over the Northern Hemisphere land, Southern Hemisphere ocean and the polar regions compared to CERES EBAF, while the contrary applies in other regions. Atmospheric net shortwave and longwave fluxes both tend to be underestimated in CMIP6 models as compared to EBAF, with substantial regional differences. Regional surface radiative fluxes as reported by NEWS and EBAF can differ substantially. Nevertheless, robust regional biases exist in CMIP6. Surface upward shortwave radiation is overestimated by 43 (81%) models over Eurasia. For almost all surface radiative flux components over the North Atlantic and Indian Ocean, there are at least 21 (40%) models which fall outside the NEWS uncertainty range. Latent heat flux is overestimated over most of the land and ocean regions while firm conclusions for sensible heat flux remain elusive due to discrepancies between different reference data sets. Compared to CMIP5, there is an overall improvement in CMIP6 on regional scale. Still, substantial deficiencies and spreads on regional scale remain, which are potentially translated into an inadequate simulation of atmospheric dynamics or hydrological cycle. Plain Language Summary: The Earth's energy budget is the principal determinant of climate on our planet and is shaped by the balance between the solar energy absorbed by the Earth and the thermal energy that leaves Earth to space. The ability of Earth System Models (ESMs) to simulate the Earth's energy budget on global scale has been widely assessed in previous studies. In the present study, their ability to simulate the energy budgets on regional scales are examined in detail and compared with reference data sets and their previous model generation. Our study finds that models tend to receive more energy or lose less energy at the top of atmosphere over Northern Hemispheric land, Southern Hemispheric ocean, and polar regions. The net energy fluxes within the atmosphere are also underestimated with substantial differences between regions. In most models, some energy fluxes at the surface of the Earth are even out of the references' uncertainty range in regions such as Eurasia, the North Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. Nevertheless, compared to their previous generation, the state‐of‐the‐art ESMs investigated in our study show an overall improvement in their regional energy budgets, but deficiencies in atmospheric dynamics and hydrological cycle on regional scales should not be neglected. Key Points: This study investigates the regional energy budgets in CMIP6 models, and compares them with reference data sets and CMIP5 modelsIn most models, some energy budget components are out of the references' uncertainty range in some regionsThe regional scale energy budgets simulated by the CMIP6 models are overall improved compared to CMIP5 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interannual variability in summer precipitation intraseasonal oscillation intensity over southwest China (SWC) is investigated in this study. The results indicate that the 7–20-day period dominates the intraseasonal variability in summer SWC precipitation. The leading mode of summer SWC precipitation 7–20-day oscillation intensity (SPOI) is a north–south dipole pattern with prominent interannual variability. The atmospheric circulation anomalies from both tropics and mid- to high latitudes are responsible for the interannual variability in the dipole pattern. In the tropics, an enhanced local Hadley cell and an anomalous anticyclone over southern China and the northwest Pacific contribute to the north-positive–south-negative pattern of SPOI by inducing moisture convergence (divergence) over northern (southern) SWC in the background state. In the mid- to high latitudes, the 7–20-day Rossby wave trains along the subtropical jet are crucial for the 7–20-day precipitation over northern SWC. Further analyses suggest that the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Maritime Continent (MC) and the North Atlantic (NA) are associated with the SPOI dipole pattern. The MC SST warming causes convection anomalies over the tropical Indo-Pacific, consequently triggering a Matsuno–Gill-type atmospheric response conducive to the north-positive–south-negative pattern of SPOI. The NA SST tripole triggers a Rossby wave train across Eurasia that strengthens the East Asian westerly jet and enhances 7–20-day atmospheric variability, consequently favoring the variability of 7–20-day precipitation over northern SWC. Diagnoses of moisture and vorticity budgets further indicate the importance of the interaction between intraseasonal fluctuations and atmospheric background in the formation of the north–south difference in 7–20-day precipitation variability over SWC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wintertime precipitation is vital to the growth of glaciers in the Northern Hemisphere. We find a tripole mode of precipitation (PTM), with each pole of the mode extending zonally over the Eastern Hemisphere roughly between 30°W and 120°E, and the positive–negative–positive structure for its positive phase extending meridionally from the Arctic to the continental North Africa/Eurasia region. The large-scale dynamics associated with the PTM is explored. The positive phase of the PTM is associated with the negative while eastward-shifted phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a zonal band of positive SST anomaly in the tropics, together with a narrowed Hadley cell and weakened Ferrel cell. While they are northeastward tilted and separated from their North African/Eurasian counterpart in the climatological mean, the upper-tropospheric westerly jets over the east Pacific and North Atlantic become extended zonally, shifting southward, and hence form a circumpolar subtropical jet as a whole by connecting with the westerly jets over the North Africa/Eurasia region. The enhanced zonal winds over the North Atlantic promote more synoptic-scale transient eddies, which are waveguided by the jet streams. The polar vortex weakens and cold air dips southward from the North Pole. Further diagnosis of the E-vectors suggests that transient eddies have a positive feedback on the weakening of the Ferrel cell. Opposite features are associated with the negative phase of the PTM. The reconstructed time series using multiple linear regression on the NAO index and the tropical SST averaged over 20°S–20°N can explain 62.4% of the variance of the original precipitation time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzed are the anomalies of monthly mean values of surface pressure over Eurasia in winter seasons of 1901-2010. It is noted that the centers of large monthly positive pressure anomalies (16-24 hPa) are usually located within the 60°-70°N latitude zone. The Siberian high is well developed but the pressure anomalies in its center amount to 3-8 hPa only. The large monthly pressure anomalies at the isobaric surface of 500 hPa in the first natural synoptic area are mainly accompanied by the E-type of circulation (according to G.Ya. Vangengeim). The number of days with the western ( W) type of circulation is extremely small and is practically absent when the anomalies in the center exceed 20 hPa (blocking process). The time periods of increase (decrease) in the annual number of days with W-circulation are well agreed with the periods of the Earth rotation acceleration (deceleration). The positive pressure anomalies were four or five times more frequent in the periods of the Earth angular velocity decrease: in 1933-1972 and after 2004. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the relationship between the central tropical Pacific (CTP) sea surface temperature (SST) and the surface air temperature (SAT) variability unrelated to canonical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over mid–high-latitude Eurasia during boreal summers over the past half-century. The results show that their relationship experienced a decadal shift around the early 1980s. Before the early 1980s, the Eurasian SAT–CTP SST connection was weak; after that time, the relationship became stronger, and the SAT anomalies exhibited a significant wavelike pattern over Eurasia. Such a decadal change in the Eurasian SAT–CTP SST relationship could be attributed to decadal changes in the mean state and variability of CTP SST. The warmer mean state and enhanced SST variability after the early 1980s reinforced the convective activities over the tropical Pacific, leading to significantly anomalous divergence/convergence and Rossby wave sources over the North Pacific. This outcome further excited the wave train propagating along the Northern Hemisphere zonal jet stream to northern Eurasia and then affected the surface heat fluxes and atmospheric circulations over the region, resulting in wavelike SATs over Eurasia. However, during the period before the early 1980s, the CTP SST had a weak impact on the North Pacific atmospheric circulation and was consequently not able to excite the wave train pattern to impact the Eurasian atmospheric circulation and SATs. The physical processes linking the CTP SST and Eurasian SAT are further confirmed by numerical simulations. The results of this study are valuable to understanding the variability of summer Eurasian SATs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How and to what extent are human societies affected by climate change? There has been a growing body of research using big historical data and statistical analyses to provide scientific answers to this inter‐disciplinary research question. However, quantitative analysis measuring the historical demographic impact of ocean/atmosphere interaction is still scanty. Here we use 544 years (1368–1911) of historical records to trace the demographic impact brought about by ocean/atmosphere interaction in Shaanxi, located on the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region in China. Our results show that: (1) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) caused Malthusian catastrophes mainly through drought at the inter‐annual scale; (2) drought reinforced the synchrony of various Malthusian catastrophes at the inter‐annual to multi‐decadal scale; and (3) the unusual cycles of NAO drove drought and various Malthusian catastrophes in the cold 1550–1730 period at the multi‐decadal scale. This study represents a pioneering attempt to quantitatively assess the demographic impact caused by the ocean/atmosphere in historical China. Our findings may help to conceptualise the climate–human nexus in those ecologically marginal regions that are impacted by ocean/atmosphere interaction, and to explain the synchrony of social crisis in Eurasia in the 17th century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stratosphere is a key link between El Niño and Eurasian surface climate in winter. Instead of the amplitude of the stratospheric response discussed by many previous studies, we focus on the persistence of wintertime extreme El Niño impacts through the stratospheric pathway to midlatitude Eurasia in spring. A novel approach is used by running WACCM4 with El Niño forcing imposed only during winter to isolate the stratospheric role in the following spring. We show that a descending signal with a strong deceleration of zonal wind throughout the atmosphere could reach the surface and persist in spring during extreme El Niño events, whereas during moderate El Niño events the signal is generally confined to the stratosphere. Two different mechanisms are involved in maintaining the tropospheric signal of extreme El Niño. Under the westerly regime, the planetary Rossby waves from the wave centers over East Asia and the North Pacific transmit the signals from the stratosphere to the troposphere; and under the easterly regime, strong tropospheric eddy feedback over the midlatitude Atlantic favors the persistence of tropospheric responses during extreme El Niño events. The prolonged stratospheric pathway of extreme El Niño events amplifies and extends the equatorward shift of the midlatitude jet, allowing southward intrusions of cold polar air into Eurasia. Such circulation changes induced by a prolonged stratospheric pathway can cause springtime coldness and daily cold extremes in midlatitude Eurasia. Key Points: We found greater persistence of extreme El Niño signals through the stratospheric pathway to midlatitude EurasiaThe contribution of the stratospheric pathway is isolated with model and is found to be critical in maintaining the signalsThe prolonged stratospheric pathway of extreme El Niño events can increase the risk of cold spells especially over Eurasia [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wintertime warm Arctic–cold Eurasia (WACE) temperature trend during 1990–2010 was characterized by accelerating warming in the Arctic region, cooling in Eurasia, and accelerating autumn/winter Arctic sea ice loss. We identify two atmospheric circulation modes over the North Atlantic–northern Eurasian sector that displayed strong upward trends over the same period and can explain a large part of the observed decadal WACE pattern. Both modes bear a close resemblance to well-known teleconnection patterns and are relatively independent from variability in Arctic sea ice cover. The first mode (PC1) captures the recent negative trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation and increased Greenland blocking frequency, while the second mode (PC2) is reminiscent of a Rossby wave train and reflects an increased blocking frequency over the Urals and north Asia. We find that the loss in the Arctic sea ice and the upward trends in PC1 and PC2 together account for most of the decadal Arctic warming trend (>80%). However, the decadal Eurasian cooling trends may be primarily ascribed to the two circulation modes alone: all of the cooling in Siberia is contributed to by PC1 and 65% of the cooling in East Asia by their combination (the contribution by PC2 doubles that by PC1). Enhanced intraseasonal activity of the two circulation modes increases blocking frequencies over Greenland, the Ural region, and north Asia, which drive anomalous moisture/heat flux toward the Arctic and alter the downward longwave radiation. This also weakens warm advection and enhances advection of cold Arctic airmasses towards Eurasia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates the impacts of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) variability. It is found that the northern component of the EAWM variability is associated with a dipole pattern of preceding summer North Atlantic SST anomalies during 1979–2016. The processes linking preceding summer North Atlantic SST to EAWM include the North Atlantic air–sea interactions and atmospheric wave train triggered by the North Atlantic SST anomalies. Atmospheric wind anomalies in the preceding spring–summer result in the formation of a dipole SST anomaly pattern through surface heat flux changes. In turn, the induced SST anomalies provide a feedback on the atmosphere, modifying the location and intensity of anomalous winds over the North Atlantic. The associated surface heat flux anomalies switch the North Atlantic SST anomaly distribution from a dipole pattern in summer to a tripole pattern in the following winter. The North Atlantic tripole SST anomalies excite an atmospheric wave train extending from the North Atlantic through Eurasia to East Asia in winter, resulting in anomalous EAWM. However, the relationship of the northern component of EAWM to preceding summer North Atlantic SST anomalies is weak before the late 1970s. During 1956–76, due to weak air–sea interaction over the North Atlantic, no obvious tripole SST anomaly pattern is established in winter. The atmospheric wave train in winter is located at higher latitudes, leading to a weak connection between the northern component of EAWM and the preceding summer North Atlantic dipole SST anomaly pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigate links between Arctic sea ice loss and the variability of 2-m temperatures over a 6-month period (November–April) over two domains centered over northern Eurasia and northern North America. Based on data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), there has been an increase (a decrease) in recent seasonal temperature variability over Eurasia (North America), which can be attributed to cooling (warming) during the winter months. Decreases in the intraseasonal variability of temperature anomalies, however, are noted in both regions for the November–April period. This study investigates the role of different forcings on the changes seen in the reanalysis product using Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations forced with repeating sea surface temperature, sea ice, and carbon dioxide concentration relative to climatologies from two different base periods, 1981–90 and 2005–14. The seasonal temperature and intraseasonal anomaly variabilities are examined, and we find that only the simulations with reduction in sea ice (2005–14 base-period sea ice concentration) produce significant decreases in intraseasonal temperature anomaly variability over these regions, agreeing with the CFSR analysis. Runs that reduce sea ice also result in a significant decrease in the frequency and magnitude of extreme warm and cold temperature anomalies. It is proposed that the weakened latitudinal temperature gradient, resulting from decreased sea ice, leads to reduced meridional temperature advection variability, which in turn contributes to the reduction in the variability of temperature anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A winter Eurasian cooling trend and a large decline of winter sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) are striking features of recent climate changes. The question arises as to what extent these phenomena are related. A mechanism is presented that establishes a link between recent winter SIC decline and midlatitude cold extremes. Such potential weather linkages are mediated by whether there is a weak north–south gradient of background tropospheric potential vorticity (PV). A strong background PV gradient, which usually occurs in North Atlantic and Pacific Ocean midlatitudes, acts as a barrier that inhibits atmospheric blocking and southward cold air intrusion. Conversely, atmospheric blocking is more persistent in weakened PV gradient regions over Eurasia, Greenland, and northwestern North America because of weakened energy dispersion and intensified nonlinearity. The small climatological PV gradients over mid- to high-latitude Eurasia have become weaker in recent decades as BKS air temperatures show positive trends due to SIC loss, and this has led to more persistent high-latitude Ural-region blocking. These factors contribute to increased cold winter trend in East Asia. It is found, however, that in years when the winter PV gradient is small the East Asian cold extremes can even occur in the absence of large negative SIC anomalies. Thus, the magnitude of background PV gradient is an important controller of Arctic–midlatitude weather linkages, but it plays no role if Ural blocking is not present. Thus, the "PV barrier" concept presents a critical insight into the mechanism producing cold Eurasian extremes and is hypothesized to set up such Arctic–midlatitude linkages in other locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the preconditioning of events in which the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex shifts toward Eurasia (EUR events), North America (NA events), and the Atlantic (ATL events) using composite analysis. An increase in blocking days over northern Europe and a decrease in blocking days over the Bering Strait favor the movement of the vortex toward Eurasia, while the opposite changes in blocking days over those regions favor the movement of the vortex toward North America. An increase in blocking days over the eastern North Atlantic and a decrease in blocking days over the Bering Strait are conducive to movement of the stratospheric polar vortex toward the Atlantic. These anomalous precursor blocking patterns are interpreted in terms of the anomalous zonal wave-1 or wave-2 planetary wave fluxes into the stratosphere that are known to influence the vortex position and strength. In addition, the polar vortex shift events are further classified into events with small and large polar vortex deformation, since the two types of events are likely to have a different impact at the surface. A significant difference in the zonal wave-2 heat flux into the lower stratosphere exists prior to the two types of events and this is linked to anomalous blocking patterns. This study further defines three types of tropospheric blocking events in which the spatial patterns of blocking frequency anomalies are similar to the blocking patterns prior to EUR, NA, and ATL events, respectively, and our reanalysis reveals that the polar vortex is indeed more likely to shift toward Eurasia, North America, and the Atlantic in the presence of the above three defined tropospheric blocking events. These shifts of the polar vortex toward Eurasia, North America, and the Atlantic lead to statistically significant negative height anomalies near the tropopause and corresponding surface cooling anomalies over these three regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[1] We explored the climate impacts for two land-use change scenarios, aimed at mitigating the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Using the integrated assessment model IMAGE 2.2, we found that the large-scale implementation in the extratropics of either carbon-sequestration or modern-biomass plantations decreases the CO2 concentration with 70–80 ppmv by the year 2100 compared to a nonmitigation baseline. In a coupled land/atmosphere/ocean/sea-ice model this moderates global warming over the 21st century by 10%. However, the carbon-sequestration option raises the absorption of solar radiation due to a lower albedo compared to the scenario involving modem-biomass plantations (for biofuels production). The albedo-induced difference in global mean temperature is as large as the mitigation by CO2 changes in the two scenarios compared to the baseline. Further, an atmospheric circulation change in the carbon-plantation scenario weakens the supply of moisture from the oceans to North Africa and central Eurasia. In our model this decreases annual mean precipitation over North Africa by up to 10% and further increases summer temperatures over Eurasia. These findings lead us to conclude that other climate impacts than just CO2 changes have to be taken into account when discussing climate-change mitigation options that involve land-use changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]