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The objective of this paper is to review various methods of determining the extent of hazardous areas in industrial facilities where explosive gas or vapor atmospheres may be present. Three different approaches are analyzed and compared. The first one is recommended in North American Standards, such as API 500, API 505, and NFPA 497. The second is one of the proposals for the second edition of the International Standard IEC 60079-10-1 (adopted as European standard EN 60079-10-1). The third approach had been previously worked out with the authors' contribution and had been adopted by the Italian Guide CEI 31-35 since 2001. The last two approaches are analytical, meanwhile the first one is prescriptive. In the second part of this paper, both analytical approaches are applied to the releases which are analyzed in NFPA 497 as practical examples. Resulting hazardous area extents are compared, and the differences among the three methods are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The term "tornado outbreak" appeared in the meteorological literature in the 1950s and was used to highlight severe weather events with multiple tornadoes. The exact meaning of "tornado outbreak," however, evolved over the years. Depending on the availability of scientific data, technological advancements, and the intended purpose of these definitions, authors offered a diverse set of approaches to shape the perception and applications of the term "tornado outbreak." This paper reviews over 200 peer-reviewed publications--by decade--to outline the evolving nature of the "tornado outbreak" definition and to examine the changes in the "tornado outbreak" definition or its perception. A final discussion highlights the importance, limitations, and potential future evolution of what defines a "tornado outbreak.". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) is the single largest carbon flux of the terrestrial biosphere which, in turn, is responsible for sequestering 25%–30% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. The ability to model GPP is therefore critical for calculating carbon budgets as well as understanding climate feedbacks. Earth system models (ESMs) have the capability to simulate GPP but vary greatly in their individual estimates, resulting in large uncertainties. We describe a machine learning (ML) approach to investigate two key factors responsible for differences in simulated GPP quantities from ESMs: the relative importance of different atmospheric drivers and differences in the representation of land surface processes. We describe the different steps in the development of our interpretable ML framework including the choice of algorithms, parameter tuning, training and evaluation. Our results show that ESMs largely agree on the physical climate drivers responsible for GPP as seen in the literature, for instance drought variables in the Mediterranean region or radiation and temperature in the Arctic region. However differences do exist since models don't necessarily agree on which individual variable is most relevant for GPP. We also explore a distance measure to attribute GPP differences to climate influences versus process differences and provide examples for where our methods work (South Asia, Mediterranean) and where they are inconclusive (Eastern North America). Plain Language Summary: Gross primary productivity (GPP) is the rate at which plants remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere during photosynthesis. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas and excess in the atmosphere causes global warming and climate change. Changes in the amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide will impact the entire Earth System. We therefore need the ability to accurately calculate GPP, especially for different possible carbon usage pathways in the future. Earth system models or ESMs allow us to simulate various processes happening in the earth's atmosphere and biosphere including photosynthesis and can help us estimate GPP changes for such different pathways. However, ESMs can vary significantly in their simulated GPP estimates making it difficult to have confidence in using these estimates. We describe a ML framework to better understand where ESMs differ in calculating GPP so that we can address knowledge gaps in models. This approach allows us to understand the processes involved without having to run computationally expensive simulations. With improved models, we can also improve our ability to predict climate change outcomes for the future. Key Points: A machine learning framework to advance our understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle in earth system models or ESMs is proposedDifferences in the relative importance of atmospheric drivers of gross primary productivity highlights differences across modelsA method to attribute differences in productivity estimates from ESMs due to process representation versus atmospheric forcing is demonstrated [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comparisons of carbon uptake estimates from bottom-up terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) to top-down atmospheric inversions help assess how well we understand carbon dioxide (CO 2) exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere. Previous comparisons have shown varying levels of agreement between bottom-up and top-down approaches, but they have almost exclusively focused on large, aggregated scales (e.g., global or continental), providing limited insights into reasons for the mismatches. Here we explore how consistency, defined as the spread in net ecosystem exchange (NEE) estimates within an ensemble of TBMs or inversions, varies with at finer spatial scales ranging from 1∘×1∘ to the continent of North America. We also evaluate how well consistency informs accuracy in overall NEE estimates by filtering models based on their agreement with the variability, magnitude, and seasonality in observed atmospheric CO 2 drawdowns or enhancements. We find that TBMs produce more consistent estimates of NEE for most regions and at most scales relative to inversions. Filtering models using atmospheric CO 2 metrics causes ensemble spread to decrease substantially for TBMs, but not for inversions. This suggests that ensemble spread is likely not a reliable measure of the uncertainty associated with the North American carbon balance at any spatial scale. Promisingly, applying atmospheric CO 2 metrics leads to a set of models with converging flux estimates across TBMs and inversions. Overall, we show that multiscale assessment of the agreement between bottom-up and top-down NEE estimates, aided by regional-scale observational constraints is a promising path towards identifying fine-scale sources of uncertainty and improving both ensemble consistency and accuracy. These findings help refine our understanding of biospheric carbon balance, particularly at scales relevant for informing regional carbon-climate feedbacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unlabelled: This study presents an evaluation of summertime ozone concentrations over North America (NA) and Europe (EU) using the database generated from Phase 1 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). The analysis focuses on identifying temporal and spatial features that can be used to stratify operational model evaluation metrics and to test the extent to which the various modeling systems can replicate the features seen in the observations. Using a synoptic map typing approach, it is demonstrated that model performance varies with meteorological conditions associated with specific synoptic-scale flow patterns over both eastern NA and EU. For example, the root mean square error of simulated daily maximum 8-hr ozone was twice as high when cloud fractions were high compared with when cloud fractions were low over eastern NA. Furthermore, results show that over both NA and EU the regional models participating in AQMEII were able to better reproduce the observed variance in ambient ozone levels than the global model used to specify chemical boundary conditions, although the variance simulated by almost all regional models is still less that the observed variance on all spatiotemporal scales. In addition, all modeling systems showed poor correlations with observed fluctuations on the intraday time scale over both NA and EU. Furthermore, a methodology is introduced to distinguish between locally influenced and regionally representative sites for the purpose of model evaluation. Results reveal that all models have worse model performance at locally influenced sites. Overall, the analyses presented in this paper show how observed temporal and spatial information can be used to stratify operational model performance statistics and to test the modeling systems' ability to replicate observed temporal and spatial features, especially at scales the modeling systems are designed to capture., Implications: The analyses presented in this paper demonstrate how observed temporal and spatial information can be used to stratify operational model performance and to test the modeling systems' ability to replicate observed temporal and spatial features. Decisions for the improvement of regional air quality models should be based on the information derived from only regionally representative sites.

In this study, we analyze drivers of non–El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) precipitation variability in the Southwest United States (SWUS) and the influence of the atmospheric basic state, using atmosphere-only and ocean–atmosphere coupled simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) large ensemble. A cluster analysis identifies three main wave trains associated with non-ENSO SWUS precipitation in the experiments: a meridional ENSO-type wave train, an arching Pacific–North American-type (PNA) wave train, and a circumglobal zonal wave train. The zonal wave train cluster frequency differs between models and ENSO phase, with decreased frequency during El Niño and the coupled runs, and increased frequency during La Niña and the atmosphere-only runs. This is consistent with an El Niño–like bias of the atmospheric circulation in the coupled model, with strengthened subtropical westerlies in the central and eastern North Pacific that cause a retraction of the waveguide in the midlatitude eastern North Pacific. As such, zonal wave trains from the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) are more likely to be diverted southward in the east Pacific in the coupled large ensemble, with a consequently smaller role in driving SWUS precipitation variability. This study illustrates the need to reduce model biases in the background flow, particularly relating to the jet stream, in order to accurately capture the role of large-scale teleconnections in driving SWUS precipitation variability and improve future forecasting capabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are a common source of natural hazards, from heavy rain to high winds, and the direction and speed of ETC propagation influence where impacts occur and for how long. Eighteen models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are used to examine the response of Northern Hemisphere ETC propagation to global warming. In winter, simulations show that ETCs become slower over North America and the Arctic but faster over the Pacific Ocean and part of Europe. In summer, storm propagation becomes slightly slower throughout much of the midlatitudes (308-608N). Trends in both seasons relate closely to the impact of global warming on upper-level (250 hPa) winds and the 850-250-hPa thickness gradient. Wherever local thickness gradients weaken in the future, ETCs travel more slowly; conversely, wherever they strengthen, ETCs travel more quickly. In contrast to past work, we find that winter storm propagation becomes more zonal over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, which may link to decreased atmospheric blocking and less-sinuous flow at 500 hPa. The importance of model projections of the 850-250-hPa thickness gradient for meridionality of ETC propagation remains uncertain for these regions. However, for North America, models that project stronger thickness gradients also project less-sinuous flow and more-zonal ETC propagation. Overall, this work highlights strong regional variation in how the speed and direction of ETC propagation, and the upper-level circulation patterns that govern them, respond to continued warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are filaments of extensive water vapor transport in the lower troposphere that play a crucial role in the distribution of freshwater but can also cause natural and economic damage by facilitating heavy precipitation. Here, we investigate the large-scale spatiotemporal synchronization patterns of heavy precipitation events (HPEs) over the western coast and the continental regions of North America (NA), during the period from 1979 to 2018. In particular, we use event synchronization and a complex network approach incorporating varying delays to examine the temporal evolution of spatial patterns of HPEs in the aftermath of land-falling ARs. For that, we employ the SIO-R1 catalog of ARs that landfall on the western coast of NA, ranked in terms of intensity and persistence on an AR-strength scale which varies from level AR 1 to AR 5 , along with daily precipitation estimates from ERA5 with a 0.25∘ spatial resolution. Our analysis reveals a cascade of synchronized HPEs, triggered by ARs of level AR 3 or higher. On the first 3 d after an AR makes landfall, HPEs mostly occur and synchronize along the western coast of NA. In the subsequent days, moisture can be transported to central and eastern Canada and cause synchronized but delayed HPEs there. Furthermore, we confirm the robustness of our findings with an additional AR catalog based on a different AR detection method. Finally, analyzing the anomalies of integrated water vapor transport, geopotential height, upper-level meridional wind, and precipitation, we find atmospheric circulation patterns that are consistent with the spatiotemporal evolution of the synchronized HPEs. Revealing the role of ARs in the precipitation patterns over NA will lead to a better understanding of inland HPEs and the effects that changing climate dynamics will have on precipitation occurrence and consequent impacts in the context of a warming atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclone tornadoes (TCTORs) are a hazard to life and property during landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). The threat is often spread over a wide area within the TC envelope and must be continually evaluated as the TC moves inland and dissipates. To anticipate the risk of TCTORs, forecasters may use high-resolution, rapidly updating model analyses and short-range forecasts such as the Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), and an ingredients-based approach similar to that used for forecasting continental midlatitude tornadoes. Though RAP and HRRR errors have been identified in typical midlatitude convective environments, this study evaluates the performance of the RAP and the HRRR within the TC envelope, with particular attention given to sounding-derived parameters previously identified as useful for TCTOR forecasting. A sample of 1730 observed upper-air soundings is sourced from 13 TCs that made landfall along the U.S. coastline between 2017 and 2019. The observed soundings are paired with their corresponding model gridpoint soundings from the RAP analysis, RAP 12-h forecast, and HRRR 12-h forecast. Model errors are calculated for both the raw sounding variables of temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed, as well as for the selected sounding-derived parameters. Results show a moist bias that worsens with height across all model runs. There are also statistically significant underpredictions in stability-related parameters such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) and kinematic parameters such as vertical wind shear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nocturnal warming events (NWEs) are abrupt interruptions in the typical cooling of surface temperatures at night. Using temperature time series from the high-resolution Vancouver Island School-Based Weather Station Network (VWSN) in British Columbia, Canada, we investigate temporal and spatial characteristics of NWEs. In this coastal region, NWEs are more frequently detected in winter than in summer, with a seasonal shift from slowly warming NWEs dominating the winter months to rapidly warming NWEs dominating the summer months. Slow-warming NWEs are of relatively small amplitude and exhibit slow cooling rates after the temperature peaks. In contrast, fast-warming NWEs have a temperature increase of several kelvins with shorter-duration temperature peaks. The median behavior of these distinct NWE classes at individual stations is similar across the entire set of stations. The spatial synchronicity of NWEs across the VWSN (determined by requiring NWEs at station pairs to occur within given time windows) decreases with distance, including substantial variability at nearby stations that reflects local influences. Fast-warming NWEs are observed to occur either simultaneously across a number of stations or in isolation at one station. Spatial synchronicity values are used to construct undirected networks to investigate spatial connectivity structures of NWEs. We find that, independent of individual seasons or NWE classes, the networks are largely unstructured, with no clear spatial connectivity structures related to local topography or direction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite many observational studies on the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) depth zi variability across various time scales (e.g., diurnal, seasonal, annual, and decadal), zi variability before, during, and after frontal passages over land, or simply zi variability as a function of weather patterns, has remained relatively unexplored. In this study, we provide an empirical framework using 5 years (2014–18) of daytime rawinsonde observations and surface analyses over 18 central and southeastern U.S. sites to report zi variability across frontal boundaries. By providing systematic observations of front-relative contrasts in zi (i.e., zi differences between warm and cold sectors, Δ z i = z i Warm − z i Cold ) and boundary layer moisture (i.e., ABL-q) regimes in summer and winter, we propose a new paradigm to study zi changes across cold-frontal boundaries. For most cases, we found deeper zi over the warm sector than the cold sector in both summer and winter, although with significant site-to-site variability in Δzi. Additionally, our results show a positive ΔqABL (i.e., frontal contrasts in ABL-q) in summer and winter, supporting what is typically observed in midlatitude cyclones. We found that a front-relative ΔqABL of 1 g kg−1 often yielded at least a 100-m Δzi across the frontal boundary in both summer and winter. This work provides a synoptic-scale basis for zi variability and establishes a foundation for model verification to examine the impact of airmass exchange associated with advection on zi. This work will advance our understanding of ABL processes in synoptic environments and help unravel sources of front-relative zi variability. Significance Statement: The atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is the lowermost part of the atmosphere adjacent to Earth's surface. The irregular motion of air inside the ABL plays an essential role in relocating air near the surface to the free troposphere. Meteorologists use ABL depth in weather forecast models to determine the atmosphere's ability to dilute or enrich tracers within the ABL. However, knowledge about the changes in ABL depth during stormy conditions remains incomplete. Here, we investigate how the ABL depth varies before and after cold-frontal passages. We found that ABL depths were much deeper before the cold-frontal passages than after. This knowledge will help us develop new approaches to consider how storms modify the ABL in weather forecast models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-frequency radars (HFR) are traditionally used in coastal environments to observe ocean current and wave characteristics. With an HFR forward model, HFR adjoint model, and the Simulating Waves Nearshore model, HFR Doppler spectra observations were used to estimate near-surface winds in the Southern California Bight in October 2017. The HFR 10-m wind retrievals were assimilated into the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) with the COAMPS four-dimensional variational (4DVar) assimilation system to integrate the HFR wind retrievals into the initial conditions. Impact of the HFR-derived winds on the forecast are evaluated in terms of adjointderived forecast sensitivity observation impact (FSOI), and by an observing system experiment that compared forecasts from simulations that assimilated the HFR wind retrievals to a control simulation that excluded HFR winds. The addition of the HFR-estimated wind observations reduced the error in the forecasted dry energy norm in the lowest model level and also contributed to small improvements in the 10-m wind field over a 25-day experiment. The potential benefit of this new method to estimate near-surface ocean winds near the coast for data assimilation and improved numerical weather prediction is an exciting advancement in remote sensing of coastal winds and expands the benefit of existing HFR networks beyond their intended use. More importantly, wind fields retrieved from HFR have the potential to fill an observation gap near the shoreline where ship and buoy observations are sparse and scatterometer observations are unavailable due to land contamination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the characteristics and climate impacts of the quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) over the western North Pacific (WNP) in boreal winter based on observational and reanalysis data and numerical experiments with a simplified model. The wintertime convection over the WNP is dominated by significant biweekly variability with a 10–20-day period, which explains about 66% of the intraseasonal variability. Its leading mode on the biweekly time scale is a northwestward-propagating convection dipole over the WNP, which oscillates over a period of about 12 days. When the convection-active center of this QBWO is located to the east of the Philippines, it can generate an anticyclonic vorticity source to the south of Japan via inducing upper-tropospheric divergence and excite a Rossby wave train propagating toward North America along the Pacific rim. The resultant lower-tropospheric circulation facilitates cold advection and leads to cold anomalies over central North America in the following week. This result highlights a cause–effect relationship between the WNP convection and the North American climate on the quasi-biweekly time scale and may provide some prediction potential for the North American climate. Significance Statement: This study establishes a cause–effect relationship between the wintertime western North Pacific convection and the central North American air temperature on the quasi-biweekly time scale. In boreal winter, the convection over the western North Pacific oscillates significantly with a 10–20-day period. When the convection is active, it can disturb the atmosphere to the south of Japan and excite a midlatitude Rossby wave train. The latter propagates along the North Pacific rim and leads to cold spells over central North America within one week. This information connects the climate variability across the Pacific and provides an additional subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction potential for the North American winter climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

U.S. tornado records form the basis for a variety of meteorological, climatological, and disaster-risk analyses, but how reliable are they in light of changing standards for rating, as with the 2007 transition of Fujita (F) to enhanced Fujita (EF) damage scales? To what extent are recorded tornado metrics subject to such influences that may be nonmeteorological in nature? While addressing these questions with utmost thoroughness is too large of a task for any one study, and may not be possible given the many variables and uncertainties involved, some variables that are recorded in large samples are ripe for new examination. We assess basic tornado-path characteristics--damage rating, length, width, and occurrence time, as well as some combined and derived measures--for a 24-yr period of constant path-width recording standard that also coincides with National Weather Service modernization and the WSR-88D deployment era. The middle of that period (in both time and approximate tornado counts) crosses the official switch from F to EF. At least minor shifts in all assessed path variables are associated directly with that change, contrary to the intent of EF implementation. Major and essentially stepwise expansion of tornadic path widths occurred immediately upon EF usage, and widths have expanded still farther within the EF era. We also document lesser increases in pathlengths and in tornadoes rated at least EF1 in comparison with EF0. These apparently secular changes in the tornado data can impact research dependent on bulk tornado-path characteristics and damage-assessment results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Limited observational evidence indicates that ionospheric changes caused by Arctic sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) occur at middle latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. However, it is not known if a similar interhemispheric linkage is produced by Antarctic SSWs. Here we examine thermospheric and ionospheric anomalies observed in September 2019 at middle latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. We report persistent (at least 30 days) and strong (up to 80%–100%) positive anomalies in the daytime total electron content (TEC) and increases in the thermospheric O/N2 ratio in the western region of North America. However, central and eastern regions of North America experience moderate suppression of TEC reaching 20%–40% of the baseline. Different positive and negative anomalies are observed over the European sector. We hypothesize that regional differences in the TEC response could be related to modulation of thermospheric winds during SSWs, changes in thermospheric composition, and differences in declination angle. Plain Language Summary: Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are large‐scale meteorological disturbances that have been associated with profound anomalies in the Earth atmosphere, from troposphere all the way to the upper thermosphere and ionosphere. During the last decade, numerous studies shown that Arctic SSWs cause large anomalies in the low‐latitude ionosphere, and few studies pointed out especially large disturbances at middle latitudes in the southern hemisphere ionosphere. However, it is not known if similar mid‐latitude ionospheric anomalies on the other side of the globe are produced by Antarctic SSWs, mostly because Antarctic SSWs occur less often than Arctic ones. In this study we analyze ionospheric and thermospheric observations in September 2019, when a very strong SSW developed over Antarctica. We found both positive and negative disturbances in the thermospheric O/N2 ratio and total electron content over North America and over Europe. Surprisingly, these disturbances are limited to narrow (20–40°) longitude ranges, differ between North America and Europe, and persist for a long time. We discuss the reasons why these anomalies occur only at specific longitudes and suggest that differences in magnetic declination angle play an important role as they affect how SSW‐modified thermospheric wind influences ionospheric electron density. Key Points: Large regional ionospheric anomalies at northern hemisphere middle latitudes are linked to the 2019 Antarctic sudden stratospheric warmingThe ionospheric response has a quasi‐semidiurnal behavior and is most likely driven by more than one mechanismWe emphasize the potential role of thermospheric zonal wind and magnetic declination in the formation of these disturbances [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Theoretical models of the Earth's atmosphere adhere to an underlying concept of flow driven by radiative transfer and the nature of the surface over which the flow is taking place: heat from the sun and/or anthropogenic sources are the sole sources of energy driving atmospheric constituent transport. However, another source of energy is prevalent in the human environment at the very local scale – the transfer of kinetic energy from moving vehicles to the atmosphere. We show that this source of energy, due to being co-located with combustion emissions, can influence their vertical distribution to the extent of having a significant influence on lower-troposphere pollutant concentrations throughout North America. The effect of vehicle-induced turbulence on freshly emitted chemicals remains notable even when taking into account more complex urban radiative transfer-driven turbulence theories at high resolution. We have designed a parameterization to account for the at-source vertical transport of freshly emitted pollutants from mobile emissions resulting from vehicle-induced turbulence, in analogy to sub-grid-scale parameterizations for plume rise emissions from large stacks. This parameterization allows vehicle-induced turbulence to be represented at the scales inherent in 3D chemical transport models, allowing this process to be represented over larger regions than is currently feasible with large eddy simulation models. Including this sub-grid-scale parameterization for the vertical transport of emitted pollutants due to vehicle-induced turbulence in a 3D chemical transport model of the atmosphere reduces pre-existing North American nitrogen dioxide biases by a factor of 8 and improves most model performance scores for nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter, and ozone (for example, reductions in root mean square errors of 20 %, 9 %, and 0.5 %, respectively). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summertime temperatures in marginal seas are, in general, colder than on the surrounding continent because of the large contrast in heat capacity between the land and the ocean. The Okhotsk Sea, which is covered by sea ice until early summer, is much colder than the surrounding continent in summer. The Okhotsk Sea is thus located in an area with one of the largest temperature contrasts of all the marginal seas in summertime midlatitudes. Cooled air over the Okhotsk Sea may have an impact on remote summer climates, such as by serving as the source of cold-air advection that results in a poor crop harvest in Japan. Here, we examine the role of the Okhotsk Sea on the early summer climate of the western part of the North Pacific through an ideal numerical experiment by artificially changing the model's default oceanic condition in the Okhotsk Sea to a condition of land cover. Simulation results reveal that the presence of the Okhotsk Sea increases precipitation of the baiu/mei-yu front through strengthening of the northward moisture flux at the western edge of an intensified North Pacific subtropical high. The Okhotsk influence farther extends toward western North America to which the strengthened jet stream with a storm track extends. This remote influence is achievable through feedback from a transient eddy anomaly that is activated by the surface temperature gradient between the cold Okhotsk Sea and the warm Pacific Ocean. The findings imply that the existence of the Okhotsk Sea strengthens the East Asian summer monsoons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme temperature events (ETEs) pose a significant risk to society, especially vulnerable populations with limited access to shelter and water and those with pre‐existing respiratory and cardiovascular ailments. This research examines the relationship of atmospheric circulation with a myriad of metrics related to ETEs to better understand which synoptic‐scale circulations are likely to have negative health/thermal comfort outcomes. Daily sea‐level pressure (SLP) and 500‐hPa geopotential height (z500) data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) were used to identify circulation patterns over North America. Self‐organizing maps were used to partition the variability in circulation patterns over five distinct domains covering North America for both variables. Daily 2‐m temperature, 2‐m dewpoint temperature, and 10‐m wind data from the NARR were used to derive five major categories of ETEs based on 95th percentiles: temperature events, apparent temperature events, dew point events, and excess heat and excess cold temperature events. The relationship of circulation pattern frequencies (SOM nodes) leading up to ETEs were assessed using point biserial correlations, accounting for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. The results show that z500 has a stronger association with ETEs than does SLP. A great deal of spatial variability exists in the strength of relationship for many ETE variables with circulation patterns likely due to the local geographical influence (e.g., leeside mountain adiabatic warming and low‐level maritime flow). Generally, high extremes are associated with broad ridging and anticyclonic flow and cold extremes are associated with high amplitude trough patterns with low‐level flow originating from the continental interior. The use of self‐organizing maps presents a unique way of examining the potential for human health risks related ETEs and may be an effective method for statistically downscaling climate model data to assess the potential for ETEs in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modes of low-frequency circulation variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics are compared between five reanalyses. Circulation modes are detected by rotated principal component analysis (PCA) of monthly mean 500-hPa geopotential heights between 1957 and 2002, separately for individual seasons. The quantification of differences between reanalyses is based on the percentage of grid points (approximately corresponding to the percentage of area) where the spatial representations of a mode (loadings) significantly differ between reanalyses. The differences between surface-input reanalyses (20CRv2c, ERA-20C) and full-input reanalyses (NCEP-1, ERA-40, JRA-55) are larger than differences within the reanalysis groups in all seasons except for autumn. The causes of the differences are of two kinds. First, the differences may be inherent to PCA: namely, the spatial structure of the modes may be sensitive to the number of components rotated. This concerns only a few modes. Second, the differences may reflect real correlation structures in reanalysis data. We demonstrate that the differences concentrate in three or fewer modes in each season. The reanalysis most different from the rest is 20CRv2c, with the differences concentrating over the southern half of Asia and in the subtropical belt over the Pacific and adjacent southwestern North America. The 20CRv2c reanalysis disagrees from other reanalyses there predominantly before the 1980s, which points to the impact of insufficient amount of assimilated observations. On the contrary, ERA-20C exhibits a higher agreement with full-input reanalyses, which is why we recommend it for studies of atmospheric circulation over the entire twentieth century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quasi-vertical profiles (QVPs) obtained from a database of U.S. WSR-88D data are used to document polarimetric characteristics of the melting layer (ML) in cold-season storms with high vertical resolution and accuracy. A polarimetric technique to define the top and bottom of the ML is first introduced. Using the QVPs, statistical relationships are developed to gain insight into the evolution of microphysical processes above, within, and below the ML, leading to a statistical polarimetric model of the ML that reveals characteristics that reflectivity data alone are not able to provide, particularly in regions of weak reflectivity factor at horizontal polarization ZH. QVP ML statistics are examined for two regimes in the ML data: ZH ≥ 20 dBZ and ZH < 20 dBZ. Regions of ZH ≥ 20 dBZ indicate locations of MLs collocated with enhanced differential reflectivity ZDR and reduced copolar correlation coefficient ρhv, while for ZH < 20 dBZ a well-defined ML is difficult to discern using ZH alone. Evidence of large ZDR up to 4 dB, backscatter differential phase δ up to 8°, and low ρhv down to 0.80 associated with lower ZH (from −10 to 20 dBZ) in the ML is observed when pristine, nonaggregated ice falls through it. Positive correlation is documented between maximum specific differential phase KDP and maximum ZH in the ML; these are the first QVP observations of KDP in MLs documented at S band. Negative correlation occurs between minimum ρhv in the ML and ML depth and between minimum ρhv in the ML and the corresponding enhancement of ZH (ΔZH = ZHmax − ZHrain). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Performance in simulating atmospheric rivers (ARs) over western North America based on AR frequency and landfall latitude is evaluated for 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project among which the CanESM2 model performs well. ARs are classified into southern, northern, and middle types using self-organizing maps in the ERA-Interim reanalysis and CanESM2. The southern type is associated with the development and eastward movement of anomalous lower pressure over the subtropical eastern Pacific, while the northern type is linked with the eastward movement of anomalous cyclonic circulation stimulated by warm sea surface temperatures over the subtropical western Pacific. The middle type is connected with the negative phase of North Pacific Oscillation–west Pacific teleconnection pattern. CanESM2 is further used to investigate projected AR changes at the end of the twenty-first century under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario. AR definitions usually reference fixed integrated water vapor or integrated water vapor transport thresholds. AR changes under such definitions reflect both thermodynamic and dynamic influences. We therefore also use a modified AR definition that isolates change from dynamic influences only. The total AR frequency doubles compared to the historical period, with the middle AR type contributing the largest increases along the coasts of Vancouver Island and California. Atmospheric circulation (dynamic) changes decrease northern AR type frequency while increasing middle AR type frequency, indicating that future changes of circulation patterns modify the direct effect of warming on AR frequency, which would increase ARs (relative to fixed thresholds) almost everywhere along the North American coastline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study uses the stratosphere-resolved Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model to demonstrate the ''independent'' and ''dependent'' topographic forcing from the topography of East Asia (EA) and North America (NA), and their ''joint'' forcing in the northern winter stratosphere. The mutual interference between the EA and NA forcing is also demonstrated. Specifically, without EA, an independent NA can also, like EA, induce a severe polar warming and weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex. While EA favors a displacement of the polar vortex toward Eurasia, NA favors a displacement toward the North America-- Atlantic region. However, the independent-EA-forced weakening effect on the polar vortex can be largely decreased and changes to a location displacement whenNA exists, and the interference the other way around is even more critical, being able to completely offset the independent-NA-forced effect, because EA can substantively obstruct NA's effect on the tropospheric wave pattern over the Eurasia--Pacific region. The much stronger (weaker) interference of EA (NA) is associated with its stronger (weaker) downstream weakening effect on the zonal flow that impinges on NA (EA). The mutual interference always tends to further destruct the upward wave fluxes over the eastern North Pacific and enhance the downward wave fluxes over North America. The overall changes in upward wave fluxes, as well as that in the Rossby stationary wavenumber responsible for the stratospheric changes, are related to changes in the zonal-mean flow pattern. The joint effects of EA and NA, rather than being a linear superimposition of their independent effects, are largely dominated by the effects of EA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme precipitation events have major societal impacts. These events are rare and can have small spatial scale, making statistical analysis difficult; both factors are mitigated by combining events over a region. A methodology is presented to objectively define "coherent" regions wherein data points have matching annual cycles. Regions are found by training self-organizing maps (SOMs) on the annual cycle of precipitation for each grid point across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Using the annual cycle for our intended application minimizes problems caused by consecutive dry periods and localized extreme events. Multiple criteria are applied to identify useful numbers of regions for our future application. Criteria assess these properties for each region: having many more events than experienced by a single grid point, good connectedness and compactness, and robustness to changing the number of regions. Our methodology is applicable across datasets and is tested here on both reanalysis and gridded observational data. Precipitation regions obtained align with large-scale geographical features and are readily interpretable. Useful numbers of regions balance two conflicting preferences: larger regions contain more events and thereby have more robust statistics, but more compact regions allow weather patterns associated with extreme events to be aggregated with confidence. For 6-h precipitation, 12–15 regions over the CONUS optimize our metrics. The regions obtained are compared against two existing region archetypes. For example, a popular set of regions, based on nine groups of states, has less coherent regions than defining the same number of regions with our SOM methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigate links between Arctic sea ice loss and the variability of 2-m temperatures over a 6-month period (November–April) over two domains centered over northern Eurasia and northern North America. Based on data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), there has been an increase (a decrease) in recent seasonal temperature variability over Eurasia (North America), which can be attributed to cooling (warming) during the winter months. Decreases in the intraseasonal variability of temperature anomalies, however, are noted in both regions for the November–April period. This study investigates the role of different forcings on the changes seen in the reanalysis product using Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations forced with repeating sea surface temperature, sea ice, and carbon dioxide concentration relative to climatologies from two different base periods, 1981–90 and 2005–14. The seasonal temperature and intraseasonal anomaly variabilities are examined, and we find that only the simulations with reduction in sea ice (2005–14 base-period sea ice concentration) produce significant decreases in intraseasonal temperature anomaly variability over these regions, agreeing with the CFSR analysis. Runs that reduce sea ice also result in a significant decrease in the frequency and magnitude of extreme warm and cold temperature anomalies. It is proposed that the weakened latitudinal temperature gradient, resulting from decreased sea ice, leads to reduced meridional temperature advection variability, which in turn contributes to the reduction in the variability of temperature anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A winter Eurasian cooling trend and a large decline of winter sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) are striking features of recent climate changes. The question arises as to what extent these phenomena are related. A mechanism is presented that establishes a link between recent winter SIC decline and midlatitude cold extremes. Such potential weather linkages are mediated by whether there is a weak north–south gradient of background tropospheric potential vorticity (PV). A strong background PV gradient, which usually occurs in North Atlantic and Pacific Ocean midlatitudes, acts as a barrier that inhibits atmospheric blocking and southward cold air intrusion. Conversely, atmospheric blocking is more persistent in weakened PV gradient regions over Eurasia, Greenland, and northwestern North America because of weakened energy dispersion and intensified nonlinearity. The small climatological PV gradients over mid- to high-latitude Eurasia have become weaker in recent decades as BKS air temperatures show positive trends due to SIC loss, and this has led to more persistent high-latitude Ural-region blocking. These factors contribute to increased cold winter trend in East Asia. It is found, however, that in years when the winter PV gradient is small the East Asian cold extremes can even occur in the absence of large negative SIC anomalies. Thus, the magnitude of background PV gradient is an important controller of Arctic–midlatitude weather linkages, but it plays no role if Ural blocking is not present. Thus, the "PV barrier" concept presents a critical insight into the mechanism producing cold Eurasian extremes and is hypothesized to set up such Arctic–midlatitude linkages in other locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stationary waves describe the persistent meanders in the west–east flow of the extratropical atmosphere. Here, changes in stationary waves caused by ice sheets over North America are examined and the underlying mechanisms are discussed. Three experiment sets are presented showing the stationary wave response to the albedo or topography of ice sheets, as well as the albedo and topography in combination, as the forcings evolve from 21 to 6 ka. It is found that although the wintertime stationary waves have the largest amplitude, changes due to an ice sheet are equally large in summer and winter. In summer, ice sheet albedo is the dominant cause of changes: topography alone gives an opposite response to realistic ice sheets including albedo and topography. In winter, over the Atlantic, stationary wave changes are due to the ice sheet topography; over the Pacific, they are due to the persistence of summertime changes, mediated by changes in the ocean circulation. It is found that the response of stationary waves over the last deglaciation echoes the above conclusions, with no evidence of abrupt shifts in atmospheric circulation. The response linearly weakens as the albedo and height decrease from 21 to 10 ka. As potential applications, the seasonal cycle over Greenland is shown to be sensitive primarily to changes in summer climate caused by the stationary waves; the annual mean circulation over the North Pacific is found to result from summertime, albedo-forced, stationary wave effects persisting throughout the year because of ocean dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An extreme precipitation categorization scheme, used to temporally and spatially visualize and track the multiscale variability of extreme precipitation climatology, is applied over the continental United States. The scheme groups 3-day precipitation totals exceeding 100 mm into one of five precipitation categories, or "P-Cats." To demonstrate the categorization scheme and assess its observational uncertainty across a range of precipitation measurement approaches, we compare the climatology of P-Cats defined using in situ station data from the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily (GHCN-D); satellite-derived data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA); gridded station data from the Parameter-Elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM); global reanalysis from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2; and regional reanalysis from the North American Regional Reanalysis. While all datasets capture the principal spatial patterns of P-Cat climatology, results show considerable variability across the suite in frequency, spatial extent, and magnitude. Higher-resolution datasets, PRISM and TMPA, most closely resemble GHCN-D and capture a greater frequency of high-end P-Cats relative to the lower-resolution products. When all datasets are rescaled to a common coarser grid, differences persist with datasets originally constructed at a high resolution maintaining a higher frequency and magnitude of P-Cats. Results imply that dataset choice matters when applying the P-Cat scheme to track extreme precipitation over space and time. Potential future applications of the P-Cat scheme include providing a target for climate model evaluation and a basis for characterizing future change in extreme precipitation as projected by climate model simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow, elongated corridors of high water vapor content transported from tropical and/or extratropical cyclones. We characterize precipitation and snow water equivalent associated with ARs intersecting the western U.S. coast during the cold season (November– March) of water years 1949–2015. For each AR landfalling date, we retrieved the precipitation and relevant hydrometeorological variables from dynamically downscaled atmospheric reanalyses (NCEP–NCAR) using the WRF mesoscale numerical weather prediction model. Landfalling ARs resulted in higher precipitation amounts throughout the domain than did non-AR storms. ARs contributed the most extreme precipitation events during January and February. Daily snow water equivalent (SWE) changes during ARs indicate that high positive net snow accumulation conditions accompany ARs in December, January, and February. We also assess the historical impact of AR storm duration and precipitation frequency by considering the precipitation depth estimated during a 72-h window bounding the AR landfall date. More extreme precipitation amounts are produced by ARs in the South Cascades and Sierra Nevada ranges compared with ARs with landfall farther north. Most AR extreme precipitation events (and lower SWE accumulations) are produced during warm AR dates, especially toward the northern end of our domain. Analysis of ARs during dry and wet years reveals that ARs during wet years are more frequent and produce heavier precipitation and snow accumulation as compared with dry years. Such conditions are evident in drought events that are associated with a reduced frequency of ARs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we use observational and numerical model data from the Coupled Air Sea Processes and Electromagnetic Ducting Research (CASPER) field campaign to describe the mean refractive conditions offshore Duck, North Carolina. The U.S. Navy operational numerical weather prediction model known as the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) performed well forecasting large-scale conditions during the experiment, with an observed warm bias in SST and cold and dry biases in temperature and humidity in the lowest 2000 m. In general, COAMPS underpredicted the number of ducts, and they were weaker and at lower height than those seen in observations. It was found that there is a noticeable diurnal evolution of the ducts, more over land than over the ocean. Ducts were found to be more frequent over land but overall were stronger and deeper over the ocean. Also, the evaporative duct height increases as one moves offshore. A case study was chosen to describe the electromagnetic properties under different synoptic conditions. In this case the continental atmospheric boundary layer dominates and interacts with the marine atmospheric boundary layer. As a result, the latter moves around 80 km offshore and then back inland after 2 h. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the preconditioning of events in which the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex shifts toward Eurasia (EUR events), North America (NA events), and the Atlantic (ATL events) using composite analysis. An increase in blocking days over northern Europe and a decrease in blocking days over the Bering Strait favor the movement of the vortex toward Eurasia, while the opposite changes in blocking days over those regions favor the movement of the vortex toward North America. An increase in blocking days over the eastern North Atlantic and a decrease in blocking days over the Bering Strait are conducive to movement of the stratospheric polar vortex toward the Atlantic. These anomalous precursor blocking patterns are interpreted in terms of the anomalous zonal wave-1 or wave-2 planetary wave fluxes into the stratosphere that are known to influence the vortex position and strength. In addition, the polar vortex shift events are further classified into events with small and large polar vortex deformation, since the two types of events are likely to have a different impact at the surface. A significant difference in the zonal wave-2 heat flux into the lower stratosphere exists prior to the two types of events and this is linked to anomalous blocking patterns. This study further defines three types of tropospheric blocking events in which the spatial patterns of blocking frequency anomalies are similar to the blocking patterns prior to EUR, NA, and ATL events, respectively, and our reanalysis reveals that the polar vortex is indeed more likely to shift toward Eurasia, North America, and the Atlantic in the presence of the above three defined tropospheric blocking events. These shifts of the polar vortex toward Eurasia, North America, and the Atlantic lead to statistically significant negative height anomalies near the tropopause and corresponding surface cooling anomalies over these three regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) can cause significant flooding in coastal areas around the world. This study compares multiple options of a new technique for developing a gridded daily TCP product at a spatial resolution of 0.25°. These options were evaluated using NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 product to determine the optimal approach. Results indicate that the technique is very sensitive to changes in wind corrections, interpolation method, and gauge density. The optimal method accounts for wind-induced gauge undercatch and uses a customized interpolation approach. It significantly reduces precipitation biases associated with gauge undercatch during windy conditions. The new TCP extraction approach can be used to examine variability and long-term trends in TCP, even in regions with relatively few gauges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest biomass and soils represent some of the largest reservoirs of actively cycling mercury (Hg) on Earth, but many uncertainties exist regarding the source and fate of Hg in forest ecosystems. We systematically characterized stable isotope compositions of Hg in foliage, litter, and mineral soil horizons across 10 forest sites in the contiguous United States. The mass-independent isotope signatures in all forest depth profiles are more consistent with those of atmospheric Hg(0) than those of atmospheric Hg(II), indicating that atmospheric Hg(0) is the larger source of Hg to forest ecosystems. Within litter horizons, we observed significant enrichment in Hg concentration and heavier isotopes along the depth, which we hypothesize to result from additional deposition of atmospheric Hg(0) during litter decomposition. Furthermore, Hg isotope signatures in mineral soils closely resemble those of the overlying litter horizons suggesting incorporation of Hg from litter as a key source of soil Hg. The spatial distribution of Hg isotope compositions in mineral soils across all sites is modeled by isotopic mixing assuming atmospheric Hg(II), atmospheric Hg(0), and geogenic Hg as major sources. This model shows that northern sites with higher precipitation tend to have higher atmospheric Hg(0) deposition than other sites, whereas drier sites in the western U.S. tend to have higher atmospheric Hg(II) deposition than the rest. We attribute these differences primarily to the higher litterfall Hg input at northern wetter sites due to increased plant productivity by precipitation. These results allow for a better understanding of Hg cycling across the atmosphere-forest-soil interface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations of elemental mercury (Hg0) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (~1-2% y-1) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (<1% y-1). These decreases are inconsistent with current global emission inventories indicating flat or increasing emissions over that period. However, the inventories have three major flaws: (i) they do not account for the decline in atmospheric release of Hg from commercial products; (ii) they are biased in their estimate of artisanal and small-scale gold mining emissions; and (iii) they do not properly account for the change in Hg0/HgII speciation of emissions from coal-fired utilities after implementation of emission controls targeted at SO2 and NOx. We construct an improved global emission inventory for the period 1990 to 2010 accounting for the above factors and find a 20% decrease in total Hg emissions and a 30% decrease in anthropogenic Hg0 emissions, with much larger decreases in North America and Europe offsetting the effect of increasing emissions in Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg0 concentrations and in HgII wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO2 and NOx emission controls on coal-fired utilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The atmospheric and oceanic causes of North American droughts are examined using observations and ensemble climate simulations. The models indicate that oceanic forcing of annual mean precipitation variability accounts for up to 40% of total variance in northeastern Mexico, the southern Great Plains, and the Gulf Coast states but less than 10% in central and eastern Canada. Observations and models indicate robust tropical Pacific and tropical North Atlantic forcing of annual mean precipitation and soil moisture with the most heavily influenced areas being in southwestern North America and the southern Great Plains. In these regions, individual wet and dry years, droughts, and decadal variations are well reproduced in atmosphere models forced by observed SSTs. Oceanic forcing was important in causing multiyear droughts in the 1950s and at the turn of the twenty-first century, although a similar ocean configuration in the 1970s was not associated with drought owing to an overwhelming influence of internal atmospheric variability. Up to half of the soil moisture deficits during severe droughts in the southeast United States in 2000, Texas in 2011, and the central Great Plains in 2012 were related to SST forcing, although SST forcing was an insignificant factor for northern Great Plains drought in 1988. During the early twenty-first century, natural decadal swings in tropical Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs have contributed to a dry regime for the United States. Long-term changes caused by increasing trace gas concentrations are now contributing to a modest signal of soil moisture depletion, mainly over the U.S. Southwest, thereby prolonging the duration and severity of naturally occurring droughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East Pacific wavetrain (EPW) refers to here the intense stationary wave activity detected in the troposphere over the East Pacific and North America in 45 northern winters from 1958 to 2002. The EPW is generated in the lower troposphere over the East Pacific, propagating predominantly eastward into North America and slightly upward then eventually into the stratosphere. The intensity of the EPW varies from year to year and exhibits apparent decadal variability. For the period 1958-1964, the EPW was in its second maximum, and it was weakest for the period 1965-1975, then it was strongest for the period 1976-1987. After 1987, the EPW weakened again. The intensity and position of the members (i.e., the Aleutian low, the North American trough, and the North American ridge) of the EPW oscillate from time to time. For an active EPW versus a weak EPW, the Aleutian low deepens abnormally and shifts its center from the west to the east of the date line, in the middle and upper troposphere the East Asian trough extends eastward, and the Canadian ridge intensifies at the same time. The opposite is true for a weak EPW. Even in the lower stratosphere, significant changes in the stationary wave pattern are also observed. Interestingly the spatial variability of the EPW assumes a Pacific-North American (PNA)-like teleconnection pattern. It is likely that the PNA low-frequency oscillation is a reflection of the oscillations of intensity and position of the members of the EPW in horizontal direction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop an approach for estimating net ecosystem exchange ( NEE) using inventory-based information over North America ( NA) for a recent 7-year period (ca. 2000-2006). The approach notably retains information on the spatial distribution of NEE, or the vertical exchange between land and atmosphere of all non-fossil fuel sources and sinks of CO2, while accounting for lateral transfers of forest and crop products as well as their eventual emissions. The total NEE estimate of a −327 ± 252 TgC yr−1 sink for NA was driven primarily by CO2 uptake in the Forest Lands sector (−248 TgC yr−1), largely in the Northwest and Southeast regions of the US, and in the Crop Lands sector (−297 TgC yr−1), predominantly in the Midwest US states. These sinks are counteracted by the carbon source estimated for the Other Lands sector (+218 TgC yr−1), where much of the forest and crop products are assumed to be returned to the atmosphere (through livestock and human consumption). The ecosystems of Mexico are estimated to be a small net source (+18 TgC yr−1) due to land use change between 1993 and 2002. We compare these inventory-based estimates with results from a suite of terrestrial biosphere and atmospheric inversion models, where the mean continental-scale NEE estimate for each ensemble is −511 TgC yr−1 and −931 TgC yr−1, respectively. In the modeling approaches, all sectors, including Other Lands, were generally estimated to be a carbon sink, driven in part by assumed CO2 fertilization and/or lack of consideration of carbon sources from disturbances and product emissions. Additional fluxes not measured by the inventories, although highly uncertain, could add an additional −239 TgC yr−1 to the inventory-based NA sink estimate, thus suggesting some convergence with the modeling approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The California Reanalysis Downscaling at 10 km (CaRD10) was compared with the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), which is a data assimilation regional analysis at 32-km resolution and 3-hourly output using the Eta Model for the period 1979 through the present using the NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis as lateral boundary conditions. The objectives of this comparison are twofold: 1) to understand the efficacy of regional downscaling and horizontal resolution and 2) to estimate the uncertainties in regional analyses due to system differences. The large-scale component of atmospheric analysis is similar in CaRD10 and NARR. The CaRD10 daily winds fit better to station observations than NARR over ocean where daily variability is large and over land. The daily near-surface temperature comparison shows a similar temporal correlation with observations in CaRD10 and NARR. Several synoptic examples such as the Catalina eddy, coastally trapped wind reversal, and Santa Ana winds are better produced in CaRD10 than NARR. These suggest that the horizontal resolution of the model has a large influence on the regional analysis, and the near-surface observation is not properly assimilated in the current state-of-the-art regional data assimilation system. The CaRD10 near-surface temperature and winds on monthly and hourly scales are similar to NARR with more regional details available in CaRD10. The Southwestern monsoon is poorly reproduced in CaRD10 because of the position of the lateral boundary. The spatial pattern of the two precipitation analyses is similar, but CaRD10 shows smaller-scale features despite a positive bias. The trends of 500-hPa height and precipitation are similar in the two analyses but the near-surface temperature trend spatial patterns do not agree, suggesting the importance of regional topography, model physics, and land surface schemes. A comparison of a major storm event shows that both analyses suffer from budget residual. CaRD10’s large precipitation is related to wind direction, spatial distribution of precipitable water, and a large moisture convergence. Dynamical downscaling forced by a global analysis is a computationally economical approach to regional-scale long-term climate analysis and can provide a high-quality climate analysis comparable to current state-of-the-art data-assimilated regional reanalysis. However, uncertainties in regional analyses can be large and caution should be exercised when using them for climate applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of gradual Cenozoic cooling, the timing of the onset of significant Northern Hemisphere glaciation 2.7 million years ago is consistent with Milankovitch's orbital theory, which posited that ice sheets grow when polar summertime insolation and temperature are low. However, the role of moisture supply in the initiation of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets has remained unclear. The subarctic Pacific Ocean represents a significant source of water vapour to boreal North America, but it has been largely overlooked in efforts to explain Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Here we present alkenone unsaturation ratios and diatom oxygen isotope ratios from a sediment core in the western subarctic Pacific Ocean, indicating that 2.7 million years ago late-summer sea surface temperatures in this ocean region rose in response to an increase in stratification. At the same time, winter sea surface temperatures cooled, winter floating ice became more abundant and global climate descended into glacial conditions. We suggest that the observed summer warming extended into the autumn, providing water vapour to northern North America, where it precipitated and accumulated as snow, and thus allowed the initiation of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of land–atmosphere interactions on the variability of the North American monsoon system (NAMS) is investigated using the Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) Pathfinder, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) gauge precipitation, and observed snow water equivalent (SWE). Three hypotheses are tested regarding the connection between land surface variables and precipitation in the NAMS region. First, there is a weak negative correlation between 1 April SWE and subsequent surface temperature in the southern Rocky Mountains (SRM) region. However, this connection persists only until June and, therefore, cannot directly influence monsoon rainfall in July and August. Second, there is a negative correlation between SRM surface temperature and NAMS precipitation during the monsoon season, rather than the positive correlation previously proposed. Third, there is a highly significant negative correlation between rainfall and surface temperature within the NAMS region. On the monthly timescale, surface temperature decreases by ∼4 K per 1 mm day[sup -1] increase in rainfall, consistent with a positive soil moisture–rainfall feedback. The substantial variability of SRM skin temperature (∼10 K) may modulate the temperature gradient between land and ocean. However, these skin temperature anomalies persist only for ∼1 month, so their effects are variable throughout the monsoon season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The method of statistical analysis of wind innovation (observation minus forecast) vectors is extended and applied to the innovation data collected over North America for a 3-month period from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System to estimate the height–wind forecast error correlation and to evaluate the related geostrophy. Both single-level and multilevel analyses are performed. The single-level analysis shows that the geostrophy is well satisfied in the middle troposphere but is not well satisfied in the boundary layer and around the tropopause. The multilevel analysis indicates that the cross correlation between height and tangential wind forecast errors at different vertical levels is not small and thus should not be neglected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecast skill as a function of time lead and time averaging is examined in two 6-member ensembles of seasonal hindcasts. One ensemble is produced with the second generation general circulation model of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (GCM2) and the other with a reduced resolution version of the numerical weather prediction model of the Canadian Meteorological Centre (SEF). The integrations are initiated from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed data. Monthly sea surface temperature anomalies observed prior to the forecast period are maintained throughout the forecast season. A statistical forecast improvement technique, based on the singular value decomposition of forecast and reanalyzed fields, is discussed and evaluated. A simple analogue of the hindcast integrations is used to examine the behavior of two common skill scores, the correlation skill score and the explained variance skill score. The maximal skill score and the corresponding optimal forecast in this analogue are identified. The total skill of the optimal forecast is a sum of two terms, one associated with the initial conditions and the other with the lower boundary forcing. The two sources of skill operate on different time scales, with initial conditions being more important in the first one-two weeks and the atmospheric response to the boundary forcing becoming more dominant for longer time leads and time averages. This suggests that these sources of skill should be considered separately in forecast optimization. The statistical technique is moderately successful in improving the skill of monthly to seasonal forecasts of 500 hPa height (Z500) and 700 hPa temperature (T700) in the Northern Hemisphere and in the North Pacific/North America sector. The improvement is better when the forecasts for the first week and for the rest of the season are optimized separately. The SEF model produces better Z500 and T700 forecasts than GCM2 in the first one-two weeks whereas GCM2 performs slightly better at longer time leads. The skill of zero time lead forecast decays rapidly with averaging interval for time averages up to about 30–45 days and stabilizes, or even rises, for longer time averages. Excluding the first week from seasonal forecasts results in substantial degradation of predictive skill. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides information on the U.S. National Academy of Sciences report entitled Acid Deposition: Long-Term Trends. The terms of reference given to the committee that prepared the report were to assess the state of knowledge about temporal and spatial trends in acid deposition in North America. Clearly there is an urgent need for an independent assessment of acid deposition trends and the academy is an appropriate sponsor of such a study. An integrated approach treats trends in emissions, atmospheric concentrations, deposition rates, lake and river concentration and effects within a unifying biological framework. Such an approach is welcome, most studies of trends are limited to conditions in single media or to biological indicators. Consequently, the committee's task was enormous. The committee has to analyze original data sets, check anion-cation balances and so on, rather than merely review the literature. Moreover, there were mismatches in the space-and-time sale resolution of the various data sets. In such a politically charged field, it is important that the committee is perceived to be representative. The membership of 14 contains a good mix of disciplines and includes 2 Canadians.