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The atmospheric Green's function method is a technique for modeling the response of the atmosphere to changes in the spatial field of surface temperature. While early studies applied this method to changes in atmospheric circulation, it has also become an important tool to understand changes in radiative feedbacks due to evolving patterns of warming, a phenomenon called the "pattern effect." To better study this method, this paper presents a protocol for creating atmospheric Green's functions to serve as the basis for a model intercomparison project, GFMIP. The protocol has been developed using a series of sensitivity tests performed with the HadAM3 atmosphere‐only general circulation model, along with existing and new simulations from other models. Our preliminary results have uncovered nonlinearities in the response of the atmosphere to surface temperature changes, including an asymmetrical response to warming versus cooling patch perturbations, and a change in the dependence of the response on the magnitude and size of the patches. These nonlinearities suggest that the pattern effect may depend on the heterogeneity of warming as well as its location. These experiments have also revealed tradeoffs in experimental design between patch size, perturbation strength, and the length of control and patch simulations. The protocol chosen on the basis of these experiments balances scientific utility with the simulation time and setup required by the Green's function approach. Running these simulations will further our understanding of many aspects of atmospheric response, from the pattern effect and radiative feedbacks to changes in circulation, cloudiness, and precipitation. Plain Language Summary: Many properties of the atmosphere are affected by the temperature of the ocean surface. Knowing how strong these effects are would help us to better predict global warming. The response to a given surface warming depends on where the warming occurs. To account for this, researchers sometimes simulate the response to individual patches of warming and then assume the response to an arbitrary warming pattern can be summed together from these patch responses. This is sometimes called the atmospheric Green's function method, and it works well at recreating the atmospheric response to historical temperature changes. We are organizing a Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP), in which participants will apply the method consistently for many climate models. This paper presents the GFMIP protocol. In the course of developing this protocol, we found that the atmospheric response to warming is not proportional in all cases: the response to surface warming is not the opposite of the response to surface cooling; warming twice as much doesn't cause twice as much of a response; and making a patch of warming twice as large doesn't cause twice as large a response. GFMIP will help us figure out how to account for this nonlinearity. Key Points: The Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP) explores the atmospheric response to surface temperature patch perturbationsThis paper presents the GFMIP protocol, which was generated using insights from past studies and new sensitivity testsGreen's functions reconstruct the response to historical temperatures, but nonlinearities can affect responses to other warming patterns [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From the beginning of the 21st century, the heat waves in Europe have become more frequent, severe and longer lasting, especially in the southern region. The longer duration of heat waves may be partly attributed to wave‐amplification, high‐amplitude waves in the mid‐latitudes, favouring the longer‐lasting blocking systems. The primary objective of the paper was to examine the long‐term changes of hot days and heat wave events and to identify the atmospheric circulation condition that prevails its occurrence. The other object was to investigate the correlations between hot days' occurrence in Poland and sea‐ice cover and sea surface temperature changes in the Arctic and its surroundings. Over the past few decades, Central and Southern Poland have experienced a considerable rise in maximum temperatures, which has led to an increase in the number of hot days. This increase is particularly prominent during the summer months (June, July and August) but also in May and September, which extends the hot season. Although heat waves have become more frequent and persistent since 2006, their mean intensity has remained unchanged. During all heat waves in Poland, the high‐pressure centre was located over the country or its close neighbourhood, mainly in the eastern sector but also in the south, southwest or over Scandinavia. The blocking systems were mainly related to the extended ridge of the Azores High, but also to strong blocking over the North Pole and Greenland reaching Scandinavia or anomalous high pressure in the East Arctic. The longest‐lasting heat waves were usually preceded by air masses advection from the Atlantic, but the highest potential temperature along the trajectories was observed for the southern direction of inflow. The growing number of hot days is statistically significantly related to the decreasing sea‐ice cover and increasing sea surface temperature in Arctic and Subarctic regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of wind field characteristics and variation principles in complex topographical regions is of great importance for the development of numerical prediction models, aviation safety support, and wind energy utilization. However, there has been limited research focused on the lower-tropospheric wind fields in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. This paper aims to study the wind characteristics, vertical distributions, and temporal variations in the northeast of the plateau by analyzing a four-year continuous dataset collected from a Doppler wind LiDAR deployed in Xining, Qinghai Province of China. The results indicate that the prevailing horizontal wind direction in the low levels is primarily influenced by the mountain-valley wind circulation. However, as the altitude increases, the prevailing winds are predominantly affected by the westerlies. From a diurnal perspective, noticeable transition processes between up-valley and down-valley winds can be observed. The west-northwest wind (down-valley wind) dominates from late night to morning, while the east-southeast wind (up-valley wind) prevails from afternoon to early evening. The vertical winds in the low levels exhibit a downward motion during the daytime and an upward motion during the nighttime. In this plateau valley, the wind shear exponent is found to be highest in spring and lowest in winter, and it is generally lower during the daytime compared to the nighttime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, we consider a Shallow‐Water Quasi Geostrophic equation on the sphere, as a model for global large‐scale atmospheric dynamics. This equation, previously studied by Verkley (2009, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jas2837.1) and Schubert et al. (2009, https://doi.org/10.3894/james.2009.1.2), possesses a rich geometric structure, called Lie‐Poisson, and admits an infinite number of conserved quantities, called Casimirs. In this paper, we develop a Casimir preserving numerical method for long‐time simulations of this equation. The method develops in two steps: first, we construct an N‐dimensional Lie‐Poisson system that converges to the continuous one in the limit N → ∞; second, we integrate in time the finite‐dimensional system using an isospectral time integrator, developed by Modin and Viviani (2020, https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2019.944). We demonstrate the efficacy of this computational method by simulating a flow on the entire sphere for different values of the Lamb parameter. We particularly focus on rotation‐induced effects, such as the formation of jets. In agreement with shallow water models of the atmosphere, we observe the formation of robust latitudinal jets and a decrease in the zonal wind amplitude with latitude. Furthermore, spectra of the kinetic energy are computed as a point of reference for future studies. Plain Language Summary: We conducted a study on a model that represents the movements of planetary flows. This model has important physical and mathematical properties that are related to its long‐term behavior, which is essential for understanding geophysical turbulence. In this work, we developed a numerical method for simulation that preserves the key mathematical structure of the model through a two‐step process. We applied our method to simulate global atmospheric flow and investigate the impact of varying strengths of planetary rotation. Our findings demonstrate the expected formation of wind patterns known as zonal jets, where stronger winds occur near the equator and weaker winds near the poles. We also present energy spectra that illustrate the influence of planetary rotation on the transfer of turbulent energy, which aligns with existing theoretical predictions found in literature. These results highlight the potential of our numerical method for studying fundamental problems in geophysical fluid dynamics. Key Points: We develop a numerical method preserving Casimirs to simulate balanced shallow water flow on the sphereWe perform global high‐resolution simulations while accurately accounting for latitude‐dependent effectsOur simulations show the formation of robust zonal jets and provide key insights into quasi‐geostrophic turbulence [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The characteristics of South American biomass burning (BB) aerosols transported over northern and central Argentina were investigated from July to December 2019. This period was chosen due to the high aerosol optical depth values found in the region and because simultaneously intensive biomass burning took place over the Amazon. More specifically, a combination of remote sensing observations with simulated air parcel back trajectories was used to link the optical and physical properties of three BB aerosol events that affected Pilar Observatory (PO, Argentina, 31°41′S, 63°53′W, 338 m above sea level), with low-level atmospheric circulation patterns and with types of vegetation burned in specific fire regions. The lidar observations at the PO site were used for the first time to characterize the vertical extent and structure of BB aerosol plumes as well as their connection with the planetary boundary layer, and dust particles. Based mainly on the air-parcel trajectories, a local transport regime and a long transport regime were identified. We found that in all the BB aerosol event cases studied in this paper, light-absorbing fine-mode aerosols were detected, resulting mainly from a mixture of aging smoke and dust particles. In the remote transport regime, the main sources of the BB aerosols reaching PO were associated with Amazonian rainforest wildfires. These aerosols were transported into northern and central Argentina within a strong low-level jet circulation. During the local transport regime, the BB aerosols were linked with closer fires related to tropical forests, cropland, grassland, and scrub/shrubland vegetation types in southeastern South America. Moreover, aerosols carried by the remote transport regime were associated with a high aerosol loading and enhanced aging and relatively smaller particle sizes, while aerosols associated with the local transport pattern were consistently less affected by the aging effect and showed larger sizes and low aerosol loading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate estimation of global winds is crucial for various scientific and practical applications, such as global chemical transport modeling and numerical weather prediction. One valuable source of wind measurements is atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs), which play a vital role in the global observing system and numerical weather prediction models. However, errors in AMV retrievals need to be addressed before their assimilation into data assimilation systems, as they can affect the accuracy of outputs. An assessment of the bias and uncertainty in passive-sensor AMVs can be done by comparing them with information from independent sources such as active-sensor winds. In this paper, we examine the benefit and performance of a colocation scheme using independent and sparse lidar wind observations as a dependent variable in a supervised machine learning model. We demonstrate the feasibility and performance of this approach in an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework, with reference geophysical state data obtained from high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations of three different weather events. Lidar wind data are typically available in only one direction, and our study demonstrates that this single component of wind in high-precision active-sensor data can be leveraged (via a machine learning algorithm to model the conditional mean) to reduce the bias in the passive-sensor winds. Further, this active-sensor wind information can be leveraged through an algorithm that models the conditional quantiles to produce stable estimates of the prediction intervals, which are helpful in the design and application of error analysis, such as quality filters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses the midsummer precipitation prediction over eastern China by the dynamic downscaling method. Based on the Climate Forecast System version 2 of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, the prediction performance of global and regional models on the July precipitation over eastern China is further analyzed by hindcast experiments from 1982 to 2010 and prediction experiments from 2011 to 2021. The results suggest that the regional model forced by the global model can noticeably improve the prediction skill for precipitation in eastern China, especially in the region from the South of North China to the Yangtze River Basin, referred as the northern China in this paper. In addition, we perform a diagnostic analysis of the reason for the improvement of the model prediction skill. The results indicate that the high resolution of the regional model and the refinement of physical process parameterizations contribute to improving the simulation ability for the East Asian atmospheric circulation pattern, heat flux, especially for the meridional teleconnection pattern in East Asia and the sensible heat flux in the northern China, thus further improving precipitation prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Airborne wind measurement is of great significance for understanding atmospheric motion and meteorological monitoring. In this paper, we present the development and verification of an airborne Doppler wind lidar (ADWL), featuring an approach proposed to integrate a real-time wind retrieval method with an intelligent processing method for automatic adaptive wind detection. Several verification experiments were conducted to evaluate the measurement effectiveness, including comparisons with a calibrated ground-based Doppler wind lidar (GDWL) and a sounding balloon. Compared with the sounding balloon, the ADWL demonstrated mean errors of 0.53 m/s for horizontal wind velocity and 4.60° for wind direction. The correlation coefficients consistently exceeded 0.98 in all linear analyses. Employed in multiple airborne wind detection events in North China at altitudes up to 6600 m, the ADWL provided effective wind field results with a vertical resolution of 50 m and a data rate of 2 Hz. The wind field results obtained during the detection events validate the ADWL's capabilities in diverse environments and underscore its potential for the comprehensive detection of meteorological information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The detection and the functioning of the mid-summer drought (MSD) represent valuable information due to its socio-economic implications for the Caribbean. Current methods using local-scale rainfall to define the MSD have some limitations. This paper presents a novel approach to detect MSD from regional-scale weather types (WT). Long sequences of a typical summertime anticyclonic WT allow the detection of the onset and demise dates of the MSD for most years in 1950–2021. The MSD defined with WT (MSD-WT) begins rather abruptly on June 13th and concludes on August 21st, on average. While the interannual variations of the MSD-WT onset are relatively weak, long-term trends since 1950 indicate progressive earlier onsets, longer durations, and weakening intensities of the MSD-WT. Our results do not show the anticipated westward shift of the North Atlantic subtropical high pressure typically related to MSD. Instead, they indicate a halt of its eastward shift close to the MSD-WT onset. The absence of significant correlations between MSD-WT onset and either the Tropical North Atlantic or the Eastern Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in May–June also suggests a mostly intrinsic atmospheric mechanism locked to the annual cycle, thus limiting the seasonal predictability of the MSD-WT onset. Furthermore, our results indicate a lag between the timing of increased subsidence, acceleration of the Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ), and intensification of the deep convection over Central America and Mexico. This leads us to develop a novel hypothesis putting forward the monsoon circulation over Meso-America as a potential precursor of the increased subsidence over the Caribbean basin and the synchronous acceleration of CLLJ. The MSD-WT demise is more gradual and corresponds to a decrease in regional-scale mean sea level pressure and a weakening of the CLLJ. MSD-WT demise dates exhibit also relatively larger interannual variations but, unlike its onset, do not show any significant long-term trend. Anomalously warm (cold) Tropical North Atlantic and cold (warm) East Pacific SST from early June are correlated with an earlier (later) MSD-WT demise than usual. MSD-WT demise seems to involve regional-scale air-sea couplings and exhibits thus more seasonal predictability. Finally, despite a consistent response to the CLLJ, distinct processes seem to produce the relatively dry conditions observed over the Pacific coast of Central America and the Caribbean basin during the MSD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the relationships between the circulation regimes of the 500-hPa height (z500) and 250-hPa zonal winds (u250) in the Pacific–North America region during boreal winter, and the 45-day Northern Hemisphere oscillation in z500. The regimes were calculated using a k-means clustering applied to the leading 12 principal components of the combined z500–u250 anomaly fields. We divided the oscillation into eight arbitrary phases. The oscillation phase z500 composite maps are spatially well correlated with regime z500 composites: phases 1–2 are best correlated with the Arctic Low, phases 3–5 are best correlated with the Pacific Trough, phase 6 is best correlated with the Arctic High, and phases 7–8 are best correlated with the Alaskan Ridge. We found that these correlations are generally consistent with the regimes that tend to occur during the individual oscillation phases: the Arctic Low occurs above significance in phases 1–2, the Pacific Trough occurs above significance in phase 3, and Alaskan Ridge occurs above significance in phases 7–8. Therefore, the oscillation has a preferred order with respect to the regimes. The regime transitions indicate a pattern that moves through the Pacific Wavetrain, a regime that appears for k = 5 as a mean state. Transitions out of this regime into different regimes are preferred in different phases of the oscillation. These results imply a possible enhancement to regime prediction using the low-frequency oscillations in combination with regimes. Significance Statement: Subseasonal prediction, weather forecasting in the 2–4-week range, is important for many parts of society, e.g., water managers, emergency response units, and farmers. However, current prediction skill in this time range is low. This paper performs an initial analysis of a possible method to increase weather statistic prediction skill beyond 10 days in the winter for the Pacific–North America region. This is done by combining two ways of looking at large, long-lasting patterns of pressure systems in the atmosphere, which are associated with various weather statistics like precipitation extremes and storminess. The results indicate this method holds potential skill for enhancing subseasonal prediction. Further investigation might yield forecasting improvements in this important time range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the detection data obtained by the LMI (Lightning Mapping Imager)—China's first satellite-based lightning observation payload—from 2018–2022, combined with the ERA5 (ECMWF Reanalysis v5) reanalysis data of the same period, the temporal and spatial characteristics of lightning activities over the Tibetan Plateau and its response to the atmospheric circulation background are studied in detail in this paper. Based on the LMI data, we obtained consistent and continuous long-time-series lightning observation data for the whole region of the plateau for the first time, and the results show that the lightning density in the Tibetan Plateau is much smaller than that in the central and eastern land regions of China (CELR) at the same latitude. Lightning activity was unevenly distributed over the plateau and had obvious seasonal variation characteristics. The monthly amount of lightning and its ratio in the total amount of lightning for the whole year show the characteristics of "increasing first and then decreasing". Most lightning occurs in June and July, which is about a month earlier than that in the CELR. The amount of lightning fluctuated in May and decreased rapidly after August, which is consistent with the local convective thunderstorm season. The hourly lightning frequency at different altitudes over the Tibetan Plateau is consistent with local convections and unique topography, and it is closely related to the features of the local night rain. The results also reveal comparative features between lightning and the atmospheric circulation background on the plateau, such as the wind field, CAPE (convective available potential energy), temperature, and humidity at 500 hPa. In the context of global warming, the average temperature in the central and western regions of the plateau increased in the past five years. This shows that the Tibetan Plateau, as a summer heat source, has a gradual warming trend, and the corresponding convections and lightning activities are also increasing gradually. Lightning activities can be used as an indicator of DCSs (deep convective systems). This paper gives a more comprehensive understanding of the characteristics of lightning activities all over the Tibetan Plateau, especially in the western part of the plateau, which lacked ground-based lightning observation data before. In addition, it reveals the comparative features between the lightning activities and the circulation background over the plateau in the past five years, which is helpful for further understanding the contribution of lightning activities to the plateau's climate change. It can provide some reference for monitoring and researching the severe convective weather over the Tibetan Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is undergoing rapid changes due to global warming, including the expansion of the marginal ice zone (MIZ), a zone of mixed ice and open water surfaces. To predict the atmospheric interaction with these surfaces, a critical process in climate models, this paper examines a simplified theoretical framework to non-dimensionalize the dynamics of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over a mixed ice-water surface (MIZ–ABL). A heterogeneity Richardson number, Ri h , is proposed to account for the difference in temperature between the ice and water surface in relation to the synoptic pressure gradient forcing. With the wind angle relative to the ice-water interface, α , this framework hypothesizes that these two dimensionless numbers, regardless of individual dimensional variables (surface temperature and geostrophic wind speed) are sufficient to predict the MIZ–ABL dynamics. To test this framework, large-eddy simulations were employed over half-ice and half-water surfaces, with varying surface temperatures and geostrophic wind velocities. While the surface heat fluxes over ice, water, and the aggregate surface seem to be captured reasonably well by α and Ri h , the mean wind and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) profiles were not, suggesting that not only the difference in stability between the two surface, but also the individual stabilities over each surface influence the dynamics. The wind angle had a significant impact on the results, both in terms of heat fluxes at the surface, turbulent and dispersive fluxes in the MIZ–ABL, and the structure of the secondary circulations. When wind blows perpendicular to the water-ice interface, internal boundary layers are favoured except at the highest Ri h simulated. For cases with wind parallel to the interface, large rolls parallel to the shore emerge. The paper raises at least as many questions as it answers, highlighting the need for further studies of the MIZ–ABL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Radar detection technology has been used to observe meteors since the last century. According to the echoes of electromagnetic waves scattered by meteor trails, the drift velocity of meteors is calculated to research the atmospheric dynamics characteristics in their distribution height. In this paper, complementary code sequences are applied to a Very High Frequency (VHF) ionospheric sounding system. Unlike the common VHF meteor radar, the system parameters can be set with a pulse duty cycle, allowing for flexible adjustment of detection range. At the same time, the detection frequency can also be adjusted within a certain range, breaking through the traditional fixed frequency detection mode. Moreover, by employing a miniaturized antenna array composed of an orthogonal dipole antenna for the VHF receiving, the system takes account of the requirements of the inversion algorithms of meteor radar and the detection need for the irregularities sounding concurrently, achieving the function of detecting multiple targets. Therefore, the system is called the Wuhan VHF Comprehensive Sounding (WHCS) system. This system has the function of integrating transmission and reception, which can be directly detected by a single station or synchronously detected through the separation of transmission and reception. This system has the function of internal channel calibration to compensate for the phase error of meteor echoes. Through further analysis of the detection data, the height distribution of meteors, as well as typical echoes of ionospheric irregularities, were obtained. The experiments verified the availability of the system scheme and its engineering application significance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In his article Willems (Clim Chang 120(4):931-944, ) proposed a methodology to analyse extremes in rainfall series. When applying it to artificially generated, non-cyclic random variables we were able to detect cyclic behavior. Therefor we had a closer look on the methodology. Here we discuss our considerations, why this method generates cycles, depending on chosen subperiods and their coherence between detected cycle lengths. To verify these relationships some examples based on random data samples are given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we prove that for certain class of initial data, the corresponding solutions to the 3-D viscous primitive equations blow up in finite time. Specifically, we find a special solution to simplify the 3-D systems, assuming that the pressure function p (x , y , t) is a concave function. We also consider the equations on the line x = 0 , y = 0 . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fast atmospheric processes such as deep convection and severe storms are challenging to observe and understand without adequate spatiotemporal sampling. Geostationary (GEO) imaging has the advantage of tracking these fast processes continuously at a cadence of the 10 min global and 1 min mesoscale from thermal infrared (TIR) channels. More importantly, the newly-available GEO-GEO stereo observations from our 3D-Wind algorithm provide more accurate height assignment for atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) than those from conventional TIR methods. Unlike the radiometric methods, the stereo height is insensitive to radiometric TIR calibration of satellite sensors and can assign the feature height correctly under complex situation (e.g., multi-layer clouds and atmospheric inversion). This paper shows a case study from continuous GEO-GEO stereo observations over the Eastern Pacific during 1–5 February 2023, to highlight diurnal variations of clouds and dynamics in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), altocumulus/congestus, convective outflow and tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Because of their good vertical resolution, the stereo observations often show a wind shear in these cloud layers. As an example, the stereo winds reveal the classic Ekman spiral in marine PBL dynamics with a clockwise (counterclockwise) wind direction change with height in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere subtropics. Over the Southeastern Pacific, the stereo cloud observations show a clear diurnal variation in the closed-to-open cell transition in the PBL and evidence of precipitation at a lower level from broken stratocumulus clouds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rogue waves are important physical phenomena, which have wide applications in nonlinear optics, hydrodynamics, Bose–Einstein condensates, and oceanic and atmospheric dynamics. We find that when using the original PINNs to study rogue waves of high dimensional PDEs, the prediction performance will become very poor, especially for high-order rogue waves due to that the randomness of selection of sample points makes insufficient use of the physical information describing the local sharp regions of rogue waves. In this paper, we propose an adaptive sampling physics-informed neural network method (ASPINN), which renders the points in local sharp regions to be selected sufficiently by a new adaptive search algorithm to lead to a prefect prediction performance. To valid the performance of our method, the (2 + 1) -dimensional CHKP equation is taken as an illustrative example. Experimental results reveal that the original PINNs can hardly be able to predict dynamical behaviors of the high-order rogue waves for the CHKP equation, but the ASPINN method can not only predict dynamical behaviors of these high-order rogue waves, but also greatly improve the prediction efficiency and accuracy to four orders of magnitude. Then, the data-driven inverse problem for the CHKP equation with different levels of corrupted noise is studied to show that the ASPINN method has good robustness. Moreover, some main factors affecting the neural network performance are discussed in detail, including the size of training data, the number of layers of the neural network, and the number of neurons per layer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we obtain a variety of analytical wave solutions of a (2 + 1)-dimensional extended shallow water wave equation. The applications of the governing equation are enormous in ocean modeling and investigation of moist-convection properties in atmospheric dynamics. Two powerful mathematical approaches, the exp (− Υ (g)) -expansion method (EEM) and the generalized projective Riccati equations method (GPREM), were used to find closed-form traveling wave solutions. In addition, the breather wave solutions were described using the Cole-Hopf transform, derived with the help of Hirota bilinear method (HBM). Eventually, we obtain 46 closed-form solutions in explicit form. The general form of obtained solutions include trigonometric, rational, exponential and hyperbolic function solutions. To illustrate the physical significance of some novel results, we provided contour, two- and three-dimensional graphics under the suitable free choices of unknown parameters. The dynamical shapes of these solutions are one soliton, multiple solitons, kink, anti-kink, lump and periodic solutions. We believe that the applied methods of this work are well-organized, genuine and powerful mathematical tools for solving the nonlinear evolution equations (NLEEs) occurring in the study of ocean science and engineering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the changes of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) associated winter rainfall relationship in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the historical period (1981–2010) and future period (2071–2100) based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models simulations. Twenty general circulation models (GCMs) are chosen from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) highest emission scenario—Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5‐8.5. This study focuses only on the GCMs that have been able to replicate the consistent associated patterns observed, referred to as "teleconnection‐consistent models" (TCMs). During historical period, ENSO has significant negative association with SEA winter rainfall, particularly over Indochina mainland, Maritime Continent (MC) and northern Borneo. The significant negative‐associated teleconnection affected area has increased under future climate, particularly over southern part of South China Sea (SCS). The weakening of south westerlies at Western North Pacific (WNP) centred near 20°N reduces the moisture transport from Indochina into south of China, increase the negative correlated affected area in the SEA regions above equator. The northeasterlies/easterlies that prevailed from the WNP anticyclone (AC) brings significant moisture flux into southern Borneo, causing increment of significant positive‐associated moisture flux convergence to that region. The weakening of upward motion in TCM results in less warm and moist air rising over SEA MC, reducing the rainfall availability. The 1° eastward expansion of WC downward branch eastern edge leads to suppression of convective activities, increasing the dry affected area. The results suggest that the ENSO has a larger influence on the negative‐associated SEA rainfall and atmospheric circulation in the December–January–February (DJF) late‐21st century when compared to the 1980–2010. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the nonlinear dynamics of atmospheric aerosols during the transition from laminar to turbulent flows using the framework of Scale Relativity Theory. It is proposed that the transition from multifractal to non-multifractal scales (in the dynamics of the atmospheric aerosols) can be assimilated to the transition between laminar and turbulent states. These transitions are determined by the multifractal diffusion and deposition processes. The methodology used involves the application of the principle of scale covariance, which states that the laws of atmospheric physics remain invariant with respect to spatial and temporal transformations as well as scale transformations. Based on this principle, several conservation laws are constructed. In such context, the conservation law of the density of states associated with the multifractal-non-multifractal scale transition in a one-dimensional case is then considered. The model describes the non-linear behaviour of atmospheric aerosols undergoing diffusion and deposition processes. The theoretical approach was correlated using experimental data from a ceilometer and radar reflectivity factor data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall, with its intensity, duration, and seasonal distribution, is among the main factors causing soil erosion, which is a widespread environmental problem in Bulgaria. Rainfall erosivity shows the potential of precipitation to generate erosion processes and is an essential indicator of the climate vulnerability of a region. This paper aims to evaluate rainfall erosivity in a part of the Eastern Rhodopes Mountains, an area that is characterised by high-intensity erosion processes and high erosion risk. Local peculiarities of rainfall erosivity were revealed by the calculation of some precipitation indices based on the monthly precipitation for the period 2000–2021, such as the precipitation concentration index (PCI), Angot precipitation index, Fournier index (FI), and modified Fournier index (MFI). The analysis of the extremely wet and extremely dry months at the annual and seasonal (October–March and April–September) levels was performed to evaluate the susceptibility to erosion. The results from the study show that rainfall erosivity in the studied area varies from low to moderate in the northern part of the study area and from high to very high in the south. According to the MFI, high and very high erosivities have been observed mainly since 2012. The erosivity increases from north to south, to the area with a complex relief, where the combination of orography and atmospheric circulation make favourable conditions for the occurrence of extreme precipitation. The analyses of the calculated indices show that the precipitations in most of the studied area generally have from a low to a moderate erosivity, but this does not exclude the occurrence of cases with high and very high erosivities, which are characteristic of recent years and are related to the increase in annual precipitations and extreme precipitation months. The results of this study can contribute to the development and implementation of measures and preventive activities for the reduction and possible elimination of the negative impacts of extreme precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using multiple observational and reanalysis data, this paper investigates the impact of the interdecadal shift in summer Arctic Oscillation (AO) on precipitation in East Asia, by removing ENSO influences. The results indicate that the lower-layer activity center of summer AO in Atlantic shifted eastward after the mid-1980s. This regime shift of summer AO has a significant impact on precipitation in East Asia. Before the mid-1980s, the key regions in which precipitation was affected by AO in East Asia were northern East Asia and Northeastern China and adjacent regions. After the mid-1980s, the key regions in which precipitation was affected by AO in East Asia were central Inner Mongolia and Southern China. The mechanism of precipitation changes can be attributed to changes in atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport related to AO changes. After the mid-1980s, the influence of AO on geopotential height over northern East Asia weakened; meanwhile, the impact of AO on geopotential height over China increased. Consistent with the changes in atmospheric circulation, water vapor transport in East Asia also underwent interdecadal changes before and after the mid-1980s. The differences in atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport in East Asia can be traced back to the North Atlantic. Before the mid-1980s, wave activity flux related to summer AO tended to propagate in high latitudes and subtropics; after the mid-1980s, the wave activity flux changed in its subtropical path and propagated eastward from the North Atlantic through the Middle East to China, significantly affecting the summer precipitation in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Part of power transformers failures are result of great electromagnetic forces acting on its windings due the circulation of high currents, as in case of short circuits. To contribute for a more reliable mechanical design, this paper presents a finite element analysis (FEA) for a complete calculation and evaluation of electromagnetic forces on transformers windings. Three arrangements of concentric windings are analyzed considering three-phase and three-dimensional models, dealing with issues as the influence of magnetic core window and lateral phases presence, ensuring more accurate results. The adopted modeling allows to determinate the total axial and radial forces on all the phases and its distribution over the height of windings and around the core leg. It was possible to identify points of greater and lesser forces and the behavior of forces on different constructive arrangements, allowing its choice improvement during the design stage. The results present good agreement to the analytical method, allowing the application of the developed FEA for transformer design optimization, contributing for a time and costs reduction and avoiding future mistakes in its construction and failures during its operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining the underlying mechanisms leading to extreme events in dynamical systems is a challenging task. Under mild hypotheses, large deviations theory predicts that, as one increases the threshold defining an extreme, dynamical trajectories which reach the extreme look more and more like one another: they converge towards a typical, i.e. most probable, trajectory called the instanton. In this paper, we use a 2000-year simulation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR model under a stationary pre-industrial climate to test this prediction on the case of hot extremes. We investigate whether the physical mechanisms leading to extreme temperatures at four locations in Europe are more similar with increasing extreme temperatures. Our results show that most physical variables exhibit the expected convergence towards a most probable trajectory, with some geographical and temporal variations. In particular, we observe the presence of a cut-off low in some trajectories, which suggests the existence of multiple pathways leading to extreme temperatures. These findings confirm the relevance of instanton dynamics to understand the physical mechanisms driving extreme events in climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic climate change is changing the earth system processes that control the characteristics of natural hazards both globally and across Australia. Model projections of hazards under future climate change are necessary for effective adaptation. This paper presents BARPA-R (the Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric Regional Projections for Australia), a regional climate model designed to downscale climate projections over the Australasian region with the purpose to investigate future hazards. BARPA-R, a limited area model, has a 17 km horizontal grid-spacing and makes use of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) atmospheric model and the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model. To establish credibility and in compliance with the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) experiment design, the BARPA-R framework has been used to downscale ERA-5 reanalysis. Here, an assessment of this evaluation experiment is provided. First, an examination of BARPA-R's representation of Australia's surface air temperature, rainfall and 10-m winds finds good performance overall, with biases including a 1K cold bias in daily maximum temperatures, reduced diurnal temperature range, and wet biases up to 25 mm/month in inland Australia. Recent trends in diurnal maximum temperatures are consistent with observational products, while trends in minimum temperatures show overestimated warming and trends in rainfall show underestimated wetting in northern Australia. Rainfall and temperature teleconnections are effectively represented in BARPA-R when present in the driving boundary conditions, while 10-metre winds are improved over ERA5 in six out of eight of the Australian regions considered. The second section of the paper considers the representation of large-scale atmospheric circulation features and weather systems. While generally well represented, convection-related features such as tropical cyclones, the SPCZ, Northwest Cloud-Bands and the monsoon westerlies show more divergence from observations and internal interannual variability than mid-latitude phenomena such as the westerly jets and extra-tropical cyclones. Having simulated a realistic Australasian climate, the BARPA-R framework will be used to downscale two climate change scenarios from seven CMIP6 GCMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the present critical review, my aim is to address serious calculation mistakes made by the authors. I do not want to review their interpretation of a given observation on 18 June 1840 made by Antonio Colla, who was a professor of Astronomy and Meteorology at the University of Parma. There is no sense interpreting Colla's observation since the basic astronomical calculations have been made incorrectly by the authors Chiara Bertolin and Fernando Domínguez-Castro. Summarizing, in theory and practice, astronomer Antonio Colla could not have observed noctilucent clouds (NLC) at Parma on 18 June 1840. That is why the conclusions of the present paper are not valid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The performance of general circulation models (GCMs) in simulating horizontal winds is important because the distribution and variation in horizontal winds are central to investigating atmospheric dynamic characteristics and processes. Also, horizontal wind data can be used to extract some of the required information on gravity waves, tides, and planetary waves. In this context, the present paper evaluates the capability of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics atmospheric general circulation model high-top version (IAP-HAGCM) in simulating the horizontal winds and tides of the troposphere and lower stratosphere by presenting a climatological and statistical comparison against observations of the powerful Beijing mesosphere–stratosphere–troposphere (MST) radar (39.78°N, 116.95°E) during 2012–2014. The results illustrated that the IAP-HAGCM can successfully reproduce the time–altitude distribution of the monthly mean zonal wind and diurnal tide amplitude, albeit with some underestimation. The mean correlation coefficients and root-mean-square error for the zonal (meridional) winds were 0.94 (0.73) and 6.60 m s−1 (2.90 m s–1), respectively. Additionally, the IAP-HAGCM can capture the temporal variation in both the zonal and meridional winds. It is worth noting that, compared with the seven coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) models, the IAP-HAGCM performs better in meridional wind simulations below 15 km. However, there are discrepancies in altitudinal ranges with large wind velocities, such as the westerly jet, in the transition region of the troposphere and stratosphere, and in February, April, July, and September. It is suggested that model users should take advantage of the model's simulation ability by combining this information regarding when and where it is optimal with their own research purposes. Moreover, the evaluation results in this paper can also serve as a reference for guiding improvements of the IAP-HAGCM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is written to commemorate the 10th anniversary of academician Ye Duzheng (Yeh T.C.) pass away and his great contributions to the development of atmospheric dynamics. Under the inspiration and guidance of the theory of Rossby wave energy dispersion, remarkable progresses have been made in research on planetary wave dynamics and teleconnections of atmospheric circulation anomalies. This paper aims to make a brief review of the studies on the propagating characteristics of quasi-stationary planetary waves in a three-dimensional spherical atmosphere and the dynamic processes of the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the East Asian summer and winter monsoon systems. Especially, this paper systematically reviews the progresses of the studies on the impacts of the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the East Asia/Pacific (EAP) pattern teleconnection wave train propagating along the meridional direction over East Asia and the "Silk Road" pattern teleconnection wave train propagating along the zonal direction within the subtropical jet from West Asia to East Asia on the East Asian summer monsoon system and the summer precipitation variability in China, under the guidance of the theory of Rossby wave energy dispersion. Moreover, this paper reviews the dynamic processes of the impact of the interannual and interdecadal oscillations of the propagating waveguides of boreal quasi-stationary planetary waves on the variability of the East Asian winter monsoon system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzed are the attempts of the authors of the reviewed paper to prove that the effects created by minor inhomogeneities of the gravity field are significant for geophysical flows. These attempts can hardly be considered successful. The reasons for the failure are described. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Progressing climate change is often reflected in changing biometeorological conditions. The Sudetes Mountains, located in the Polish–Czech border area, are concerned by this phenomenon. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the influence of atmospheric circulation on multiannual changes in biothermal conditions using the UTCI index. In the analysis, data for 1991–2020, from both Polish and Czech meteorological stations, was considered, while the circulation factor was evaluated using the Lityński classification. The research indicated a positive tendency of UTCI values for the majority of circulation types, which consequently contributed to a decrease in the frequency of cold stress categories. In the summits, a decline in the number of days with extreme cold stress was the most characteristic feature, especially under anticyclonic and northern circulation. Tendencies of heat stress occurrence were in most cases statistically insignificant, except for cyclonic and transitional circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using an aerosol–climate coupled model, this paper has investigated the changes in distributions of anthropogenic and natural particles due to 4 × CO2-induced global warming, under the low emission scenario of Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). Special attention is paid to the seasonal variations of aerosol size modes. With rising CO2 levels, surface warming, and changes in atmospheric circulations and hydrologic cycles are found during both summer (JJA) and winter (DJF). For anthropogenic particles, changes in fine anthropogenic particulate matter (PM2.5, particles with diameters smaller than 2.5 μm) decrease over high-latitude regions and increase over the tropics in both DJF and JJA. Global mean column concentrations of PM2.5 decrease by approximately 0.19 mg m−2, and concentrations of coarse anthropogenic particles (CPM, particles with diameters larger than 2.5 μm) increase by 0.005 mg m−2 in JJA. Changes in anthropogenic particles in DJF are similar to those in JJA, but the magnitudes of maximum regional changes are much smaller than those in JJA. The coarse anthropogenic particles (CPM, particles with diameters larger than 2.5 μm) increase over northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula during JJA, whereas changes in anthropogenic CPM during DJF are minimal. During both JJA and DJF, changes in anthropogenic CPM are about two orders of magnitude smaller than those of anthropogenic PM2.5. Enhanced wet deposition by large-scale precipitation under rising CO2-induced surface warming is the critical factor affecting changes in anthropogenic particles. For natural particles, the distribution of change in the natural PM2.5 burden is similar to that of natural CPM, but much larger than natural CPM during each season. Both natural PM2.5 and CPM burdens increase over northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula during JJA, but decrease over most of the continental regions during DJF. Changes in surface wind speed, divergence/convergence of surface wind, and precipitation are primary reasons for the variation of natural particles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Better understanding on the phases of Indian summer monsoon i.e., onset, progress and withdrawal helps in the decision making and proper management. In this paper, date of onset of monsoon (DOM) and date of withdrawal of monsoon (DWM) is estimated using the long-term daily rainfall data observed by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and cumulative rainfall anomaly concept, as the onset/withdrawal represents a signature of rainfall transition. The results are promising with a better match between the estimated DOM and IMD announced DOM over Kerala. The length of monsoon season variability is also analysed. The concept of onset at grid point (OGP) in India is also evaluated and progress of monsoon is monitored by considering the latitudinal variation, persistent & strength of rainfall in the continental India. The zonal classification of the spread of monsoon in terms of the intensity and time (duration) is presented. Zone wise pentad analysis of onset clearly signifies the progress of monsoon and its dependency on various physical factors like SST, OLR, TTG, ITCZ, Energy budget and wind circulation. The impact of ENSO on the OGP is brought out, which clearly shows that DOM, DWM and progress is almost influenced by the largescale processes. The intensity–duration–frequency analysis quantified the actual ISM length, seasonal rainfall and rainy days at all locations in India. This study will help modellers in better understanding of onset and progress of monsoon dynamics in India and can be integrated with NWP for the accurate and advance prediction of DOM and the progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various methods of cluster analysis are used for identifying large-scale atmospheric circulation regimes (weather regimes (WRs)). In this paper we compare the four most commonly used clustering methods: k-means (KM), Ward's hierarchical clustering (HW), Gaussian mixture model (GM), and self-organizing maps (SOMs) to analyze WRs in the Euro-Atlantic (EAT) region. The data used for identifying WRs are 500 hPa geopotential height fields (z500) from the ERA5 reanalysis for 1940–2022. Four classical wintertime WRs are identified by the KM method—two regimes associated with positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+ and NAO–), a regime associated with the Scandinavian blocking (SB), and a regime characterized by elevated pressure over the Northern Atlantic. For summer months, the KM method gets WRs that are similar in spatial structure to the classical winter ones. The SOM method yields results that are almost identical to the results of the KM method. Unlike KM and SOM methods, HW and GM do not fully catch the spatial structure of all of the four classical winter EAT WRs and their summer analogues. Compared to WRs of the KM and SOM methods, WRs obtained by HW and GM methods explain less z500 variance; they have different occurrences, persistence, and transition features. Summer and winter WRs obtained by HW and GM methods are less similar to each other compared to WRs provided by the KM method. Average spatial correlation coefficients between mean z500 fields of WRs obtained by KM and HW methods are 0.76 in winter and 0.83 in summer; 0.70 in winter and 0.72 in summer for KM and GM methods; and 0.41 in winter and 0.44 in summer for the regimes compared between HW and GM methods, respectively. There are statistically significant trends of the seasonal occurrence of WRs found by some of the studied clustering methods—a positive trend for the occurrence of the NAO+ regime and a negative trend for the occurrence of the NAO-regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have demonstrated that the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation varies considerably during the boreal winter. Compared to the late winter (January–March) relationship, the early winter (November–December) teleconnection is more uncertain and less understood. In this paper, we revisited this early winter regional ENSO teleconnection using the Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) fifth generation reanalysis (ERA5) datasets for the period 1979–2022. It was found that the signal projected well onto the second dominant mode of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric variability, the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP), rather than the previously mentioned North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This influence is associated with ENSO-induced dipolar convection anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea (GMCA), which leads to an EAP via exciting Rossby waves propagating northward into the North Atlantic. We further revealed that this ENSO–EAP teleconnection underwent a pronounced interdecadal strengthening around the late 1990s. Prior to the late 1990s, the convective response to ENSO in the GMCA was weak. The atmospheric responses over the Euro-Atlantic were mainly driven by the ENSO-induced convective forcing in the tropical Indian Ocean, which favors an NAO-like pattern. In contrast, since the late 1990s, ENSO has induced stronger precipitation anomalies in the GMCA, which exert a dominant influence on the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation and produce an EAP. These results have useful implications for the further understanding of ENSO-related early winter atmospheric and climate variability in the Euro-Atlantic region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Cassini Grand Finale provided a unique opportunity to study Saturn's deep zonal flow. In this paper, we present a comprehensive deep zonal flow model for Saturn using a joint inversion of observed gravity and zonal flow-induced Ohmic dissipation in the semi-conducting region, under the assumption that the planet's cloud-level wind is limited to a shallow weather layer. Our model unveils a strong equatorially symmetric zonal flow (O (100) m s−1) and a weaker antisymmetric zonal flow (O (1) m s−1) beneath the cloud-level winds. Furthermore, we show that the maximum depth of the deep zonal flow is around 7800 km, surpassing previous results derived from gravity alone and with the assumption that the rapid cloud-level winds extend deep into the planet's interior. The meridional profile of the deep zonal flow differs significantly from the cloud-level zonal winds and predicts a strong westward zonal flow in the region with latitude around ±23°, where the observed cloud-top winds remain eastward. We also demonstrate that the zonal flow inside and outside the tangent cylinder exhibits significant differences in speed and scale. Moreover, our findings suggest that the coupling between the deep zonal flow and cloud-level winds varies across latitudes, with the shallow-wind model applicable to polar regions within the tangent cylinder and the deep-wind model more relevant to equatorial regions outside the tangent cylinder. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for the planet's deep zonal flow in future studies of Saturn's atmospheric dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The well-posedness of the dynamic framework in earth-system model (ESM for short) is a common issue in earth sciences and mathematics. In this paper, the authors first introduce the research history and fundamental roles of the well-posedness of the dynamic framework in the ESM, emphasizing the three core components of ESM, i.e., the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM for short), land-surface model (LSM for short) and oceanic general circulation model (OGCM for short) and their couplings. Then, some research advances made by their own research group are outlined. Finally, future research prospects are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) is a climate change hotspot, in which any alterations to the atmospheric circulation can lead to significant impacts on the cryosphere. Even though substantial evidence has been found on the effects of human-related greenhouse gas emissions on the climate of the AP, less studies have analyzed the effect of variations in stratospheric ozone concentrations on the regional climate, and that is the focus of this paper. Results show significant links between the concentration of stratospheric ozone and the regional circulation, as well as with variations on the frequency and intensity of cold air snaps east of the AP. Significant relationships are found between changes in ozone concentrations and minimum/maximum temperature distributions over AP weather stations over most of the seasons. A strong link is also found with the location, depth and intensity of the Amundsen Sea Low west of the AP, which is in most cases responsible for the temperature anomalies identified in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate wind speed prediction is significantly important for the full utilization of wind energy resources and the improvement in the economic benefits of wind farms. Because the ensemble forecast takes into account the uncertainty of information about the atmospheric motion, domestic and foreign weather service forecast centers often choose to use the ensemble numerical forecast to achieve the fine forecast of wind speed. However, due to the unavoidable systematic errors of the ensemble numerical forecast model, it is necessary to correct the deviation in the ensemble numerical forecast wind speed. Considering the typical spatio-temporal characteristics of the grid prediction data of the wind field, based on Convolutional Long–Short Term Memory (ConvLSTM) units and attention mechanism, this paper takes the complex and representative North China region as the research area, aiming to reveal the shortcomings of existing deep learning integrated prediction correction models in extracting temporal features of grid prediction data. We propose a new ensemble prediction wind field correction model integrating multi-factor and spatio-temporal characteristics. This model uses reanalyzed land data provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts as the real data to correct the deviation in the near-surface 10 m wind field data predicted by the regional ensemble numerical prediction model of the China Meteorological Administration. We used the reanalyzed land data provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as the live data to correct the deviation in the near-surface 10 m wind field data predicted by the regional ensemble numerical forecast model of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA). At the same time, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) were used as the scoring indicators, and the results of the China Meteorological Administration–Regional Ensemble Prediction System (CMA–REPS) ensemble average, multiple linear regression method correction, Long–Short Term Memory (LSTM) method correction, and U-net (UNET) method correction were compared. Compared with the UNET model method, the experimental results show that when processing the 10 m zonal wind data, 10 m meridional wind data, and 10 m average wind speed data of CMA–REPS 24 h forecasts, the correction results of our model can reduce the RMSE score index by 9.15%, 4.83%, and 7.79%. At the same time, when processing the 48 h and 72 h near-surface 10 m wind field data of the CMA–REPS forecast, our model can improve the prediction accuracy of CMA–REPS near-surface wind forecast data. Therefore, the correction effect of the proposed model in a complex terrain area is evidently better compared to other methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) derived from the Fengyun-4 meteorological satellite (FY-4), in this paper, integrated multi-satellite retrievals for GPM precipitation and reanalysis datasets and the vertical distribution characteristics of FY-4 AMVs, their application in the identification of the South Asian high (SAH) anticyclone and their application in the real-time monitoring of rainstorm disasters are studied. The results show that the AMVs' vertical distribution characteristics are different across regions and seasons. AMVs from 150 to 350 hPa can be chosen as the upper troposphere wind (the total number accounts for about 77.2% on average). The center and shape of the upper tropospheric anticyclone obtained from AMVs are close to or slightly southward compared with those of the SAH at 200 hPa obtained from the ERA5 geopotential height. The SAH ridge line identified using the upper troposphere AMV zonal wind (the zonal wind is equal to zero) is slightly southward by about 1–2 degrees of latitude from that identified using ERA5 at 200 hPa but with a similar seasonal advance. The upper troposphere AMV can be used to monitor the location of the SAH and the evolution of its ridge line. The abnormally strong precipitation in South China is related to the location of the SAH and its ridge line. When the precipitation is abnormally strong/weak, the upper troposphere AMV deviation airflow shows divergence/convergence. During the "Dragon Boat Water" period in South China in 2022, strong precipitation occurred in the strong westerly winds or divergent flow on the northeast side of the upper troposphere anticyclone obtained from AMVs, and the precipitation intensity was the strongest when the divergence reached its peak, but this is not shown clearly in the EAR5 dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is shown that a recently developed hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning (ML) with an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM) can serve as a basis for capturing atmospheric processes not captured by the AGCM. This power of the approach is illustrated by three examples from a decades‐long climate simulation experiment. The first example demonstrates that the hybrid model can produce sudden stratospheric warming, a dynamical process of nature not resolved by the low resolution AGCM component of the hybrid model. The second and third example show that introducing 6‐hr cumulative precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) as ML‐based prognostic variables improves the precipitation climatology and leads to a realistic ENSO signal in the SST and atmospheric surface pressure. Plain Language Summary: This paper introduces and tests schemes for efficiently enabling significant expansion of the utility and scope of a recently introduced hybrid modeling technique that combines machine learning with an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM). Simulation experiments are carried out with an implementation of the approach on a low resolution simplified AGCM. An examination of the simulated atmospheric circulation suggests that the hybrid model can capture dynamical process not captured by the AGCM. Moreover, the addition of precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) as machine learning predicted physical quantities to the model improves the precipitation climatology and leads to a realistic El Niño‐La Niña signal in the SST and atmospheric surface pressure. Key Points: A hybrid system combining an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM) with a machine‐learning component can capture processes not captured by the AGCMMachine learning provides a flexible framework to introduce additional prognostic variables into the hybrid modelThe prototype hybrid model tested in the paper is stable and has a realistic climate in decades‐long simulation experiments [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper expands on work showing that the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable on decadal timescales to quantify the skill in capturing the North Atlantic eddy‐driven jet's location and speed. By focusing on decadal predictions made for years 2–9 from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project over 1960–2005 we find that there is significant skill in jet latitude and, especially, jet speed associated with the skill in the NAO. However, the skill in the NAO, jet latitude and speed indices appears to be sensitive to the period over which it is assessed. In particular, skill drops considerably when evaluating hindcasts up to the present day as models fail to capture the recent observed northern shift and strengthening of the winter eddy‐driven jet, and more thus positive NAO. We suggest that the drop in atmospheric circulation skill is related to reduced skill in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Plain Language Summary: Climate models have the capability to predict the evolution of mean atmospheric circulation over long timescales, from annual to decadal and longer. However, models are overestimating the chaotic, unpredictable component of the climate's variability and, although model predictions follow the observed oscillations of the climate, the strength of these oscillations is critically underestimated. While climate models have demonstrated skill in predicting the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), this paper assesses model skill in predicting the evolution of the wintertime North Atlantic eddy‐driven jet, with the aim to highlight how much of the predictive skill of the NAO is derived from accurate predictions of the jet's state. We find levels of skill similar to that for the NAO, with slightly higher skill for the jet's strength (speed) over its location (latitude of maximum speed). We also notice a drop in skill over the last decade, as models fail to capture the latest trends in the NAO and jet's evolution, and suggest that it might be related to degradation in skill at predicting surface temperature variability. Key Points: The winter North Atlantic eddy‐driven jet is predictable on decadal time‐scales with skill in jet speed comparable to that for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)Anomalies in the jet are substantially smaller than expected from skill alone and so suffer from noise overestimationSkill drops significantly in the last decade, as hindcasts do not capture the return to positive NAO conditions post‐2010 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction of sub‐daily pressure series is described for the cities of London (GB) and Paris (FR). The series extend back 1692 and 1748, respectively, and as such they represent two of the longest sub‐daily series of barometric pressure available. These series are updated from the previously documented London and Paris daily series and offer more homogeneous series, and in the case of the London series a more temporally complete sequence of data. A pairwise homogenization procedure has been applied to the two series alongside the long series of pressure that exists for De Bilt (NL). The De Bilt series has been available for some time in the International Surface Pressure Dataset (ISPD), but further quality control and homogeneity‐checking procedures have been applied to the data in this paper and therefore the three series are released together in this dataset. The series are of immediate interest for understanding changes to storm activity across the English Channel and North Atlantic region over an extended timeframe but may also be assimilated into reanalysis datasets such as the 20th‐century reanalysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mars Atmospheric Wind Imaging Interferometer offers several advantages, notably its high throughput, enabling the acquisition of precise and high vertical resolution data on the temperature and wind fields in the Martian atmosphere. Considering the current absence of such an Interferometer, this paper introduces a novel Mars wind field imaging interferometer. In analyzing the photochemical model of O2 (a1Δg) 1.27 μm molecular airglow radiation in the Martian atmosphere and considering the impact of instrument signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), we have chosen an optical path difference (OPD) of 8.6 cm for the interferometer. The all-solid-state polarized wind imaging interferometer is miniaturized by incorporating two arm glasses as the compensation medium in its construction, achieving the effects of field-widening and temperature compensation. Additionally, an F-P Etalon is designed to selectively filter the desired three spectral lines of O2 dayglow, and its effect is evaluated through simulations. The accuracy of the proposed compact Mars polarized wind imaging interferometer for detecting Mars' wind field and temperature field has been validated through rigorous theoretical derivation and comprehensive computer simulations. The interferometer boasts several advantages, including its compact and small size, static stability, minimal stray light, and absence of moving parts. It establishes the theoretical, technological, and instrumental engineering foundations for future simultaneous static measurement of Martian global atmospheric wind fields, temperature fields, and ozone concentrations from spacecraft, thereby significantly contributing to the dataset for investigating Martian atmospheric dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global perspective presented here is built on earlier papers discussing the dynamics of the upper branch of the Hadley cell in the two solsticial seasons. The role of the tropics is made explicit in a conceptual model that is presented and evaluated. The fluctuation of deep tropical convection in longitude and time is seen as crucial. The filamentary outflows from such convective events move westward and across the equator deep into the winter hemisphere. The horizontal tilt of the cross-equatorial flow implies a significant upper-tropospheric flux of westerly momentum from the winter tropics to the summer hemisphere. These properties are related to the cross-equatorial propagation of wave activity triggered by deep tropical convection in the summer hemisphere. The filaments carry with them near-equatorial values of absolute vorticity and potential vorticity. After turning anticyclonically, some filaments move eastward and poleward to the equatorial edge of the winter subtropical jet. There is strong evidence they can interact with the eddies on this jet and enhance their poleward westerly momentum flux. In the global perspective, tropical and extratropical systems and the interaction between them are all important for the dynamics of the upper branch of the Hadley cell. significance statement: The Hadley cell is the large-scale overturning in the atmosphere with air in the upper troposphere moving from the equatorial region to near 30° in the winter hemisphere. In the standard view it is midlatitude weather systems that are responsible for removing angular momentum from this upper branch of the Hadley cell. Here it is proposed that tropical systems and their interaction with the midlatitude systems are also important. Insight into the role of the tropics in the dynamics of the Hadley cell can be obtained by considering it as the sum of many events of active deep convection occurring in different longitudes and at different times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates inherent numerical dissipation due to upwind fluxes and reconstruction strategies for collocated Finite‐Volume integration of the Euler equations. Idealized supercell simulations are used without any explicit dissipation. Flux terms are split into: mass flux, pressure, and advected quantities. They are computed with the following upwind strategies: central, advectively upwind, and acoustically upwind. This is performed for third and ninth‐order‐accurate reconstructions with and without Weighted Essentially Non‐Oscillatory limiting. Acoustic‐only upwinding for pressure and mass flux terms and advective‐only upwinding for advected quantities is the most flexible simplification found. It reduces data movement and computations. Assuming a constant speed of sound in acoustic upwinding gives similar results to using the true speed of sound. Dissipation from upwind adapts automatically to grid spacing, time step, reconstruction accuracy, and flow smoothness. While stability is maintained even at 21st‐order spatial accuracy, there is a limit to the spatial order of accuracy for which upwinding alone can create a realizable solution in the conditions of this study. Convex combinations of upwind and central solutions for flux terms also reduced dissipation, but as the central proportion grows, solutions become physically unrealizable. The range of length scales of the kinetic energy spectra can be extended along k−5/3 to smaller spatial scales by reducing dissipation either with higher‐order reconstructions or using convex combinations of upwind and central fluxes. However, not all extensions of the length scale range along k−5/3 exhibit physically realizable solutions, even though the spectra appear to be physical. Plain Language Summary: Integrating the Euler equations that govern certain regimes of fluid motion forward in time must be performed carefully. Subtle choices in the numerical algorithm can lead to instability or solutions that are unphysical. "Upwinding" is an algorithmic choice where the developer prefers information that comes from the upwind direction, and it is known to lead to smoother and more stable solutions in general. This study explores the effects on stability and physical realism of using different upwind preferences for different variables in the fluxes of fluid properties between adjacent cells in a discrete 3‐D grid. Sound waves are a part of the equations of atmospheric motion. They propagate through time on the edge of an expanding sphere, which makes determining a single "upwind" direction more complex. One can transform the equations into an equivalent form called "characteristic" form, though, that simplifies this definition. That transformation couples the variables together tightly and requires extra computations and data movement across a large parallel machine. This paper shows that there are simplifications to this fully upwind characteristic approach that are just as physically realistic and stable but reduce the number of computations and volume of data transfers significantly. Key Points: There are simplifications to a fully upwind Riemann solver that require fewer computations and less data movementUpwinding according to advective versus acoustic dynamics makes a large difference in stabilityOne can use convex combinations of central and upwind fluxes to obtain physically realizable solutions with less dissipation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models of the carbon cycle and climate on geologic (>104 -year) timescales have improved tremendously in the last 50 years due to parallel advances in our understanding of the Earth system and the increase in computing power to simulate its key processes. Still, balancing the Earth system's complexity with a model's computational expense is a primary challenge in model development. Simulations spanning hundreds of thousands of years or more generally require a reduction in the complexity of the climate system, omitting features such as radiative feedbacks, shifts in atmospheric circulation, and the expansion and decay of ice sheets, which can have profound effects on the long-term carbon cycle. Here, we present a model for climate and the long-term carbon cycle that captures many fundamental features of global climate while retaining the computational efficiency needed to simulate millions of years of time. The Carbon–H 2 O Coupled HydrOlOgical model with Terrestrial Runoff And INsolation, or CH2O-CHOO TRAIN, couples a one-dimensional (latitudinal) moist static energy balance model of climate with a model for rock weathering and the long-term carbon cycle. The CH2O-CHOO TRAIN is capable of running million-year-long simulations in about 30 min on a laptop PC. The key advantages of this framework are (1) it simulates fundamental climate forcings and feedbacks; (2) it accounts for geographic configuration; and (3) it is flexible, equipped to easily add features, change the strength of feedbacks, and prescribe conditions that are often hard-coded or emergent properties of more complex models, such as climate sensitivity and the strength of meridional heat transport. We show how climate variables governing temperature and the water cycle can impact long-term carbon cycling and climate, and we discuss how the magnitude and direction of this impact can depend on boundary conditions like continental geography. This paper outlines the model equations, presents a sensitivity analysis of the climate responses to varied climatic and carbon cycle perturbations, and discusses potential applications and next stops for the CH2O-CHOO TRAIN. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the dynamics of the hydrothermal coefficients characterizing agroclimatic resources on the territory of Siberia within the coordinates of 50°–65° N, 60°–120° E during modern climate change. The intensity, frequency, and duration of adverse weather phenomena for agriculture (the atmospheric droughts and moisture excess conditions) are analyzed. The Ped' drought index () and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) calculated from the data of 134 weather stations and the ERA5 reanalysis are used as an indicator. In Eastern Siberia and in the west of the analyzed territory, there is an increase in aridity (a trend is 0.2–0.5 per decade). Northern regions of Kazakhstan, the Sayan Mountains, and the West Siberian Plain were characterized by a relative stability of hydrothermal conditions in 1950–2020 (statistically significant changes are not revealed). A direct linear dependence of hydrothermal conditions on large-scale circulation processes have been not detected for most cases. The greatest number of statistically significant correlation coefficients has been obtained for the drought index and the SCAND (Scandinavia teleconnection pattern) index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In wind speed prediction technologies, deep learning-based methods have achieved promising advantages. However, most existing methods focus on learning implicit knowledge in a data-driven manner but neglect some explicit knowledge from the physical theory of meteorological dynamics, failing to make stable and long-term predictions. In this paper, we explore introducing explicit physical knowledge into neural networks and propose Physical Equations Predictive Network (PEPNet) for multi-step wind speed predictions. In PEPNet, a new neural block called the Augmented Neural Barotropic Equations (ANBE) block is designed as its key component, which aims to capture the wind dynamics by combining barotropic primitive equations and deep neural networks. Specifically, the ANBE block adopts a two-branch structure to model wind dynamics, where one branch is physic-based and the other is data-driven-based. The physic-based branch constructs temporal partial derivatives of meteorological elements (including u-component wind, v-component wind, and geopotential height) in a new Neural Barotropic Equations Unit (NBEU). The NBEU is developed based on the barotropic primitive equations mode in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Besides, considering that the barotropic primitive mode is a crude assumption of atmospheric motion, another data-driven-based branch is developed in the ANBE block, which aims at capturing meteorological dynamics beyond barotropic primitive equations. Finally, the PEPNet follows a time-variant structure to enhance the model's capability to capture wind dynamics over time. To evaluate the predictive performance of PEPNet, we have conducted several experiments on two real-world datasets. Experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art techniques and achieve optimal performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nepal experienced record-breaking summer monsoon precipitation in 2020, becoming the wettest year of the last four decades (1980–2020). This paper explores the role of large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature patterns in tipping an otherwise typical wet summer into an extreme one in 2020. The unusually high precipitation was fuelled by the Western North Pacific Anticyclone (WNPAC), concomitant with the strong presence of moist static energy and enhanced vertical velocity in and near Nepal. Sea surface temperature anomalies showed an intense Indian Ocean warming and features of a La Niña, succeeding a weak El Niño event that had sustained the WNPAC. The southwesterly winds on the northern flank of then WNPAC contributed excess moisture transport and convergence to Nepal, consequently resulting in elevated precipitation. This feature is consistent with previous wet summer years, but the presence of WNPAC in those years followed the El Niño event. Therefore, it appears that the Indo-western Pacific Ocean Capacitor (IPOC) effect exerts the above-normal precipitation for the summer of 2020 without involving the El Niño event, while anthropogenic warming may have further tipped the balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In ocean and atmospheric dynamics, the strong horizontal turbulent mixing tends to produce horizontal eddy viscosity, so the horizontal scale is much larger than the vertical scale. At the same time, as a fluid, the motion of the atmosphere or the ocean has a delayed property to some extent. In this paper, we consider 3D viscous primitive equations with only horizontal eddy diffusivity and delays in both convective and heat source terms. With some suitable assumptions on delay term, we prove the existence and uniqueness of strong solution with H2$$ {H}^2 $$ initial data and obtain the existence and uniqueness of the stationary solution. Moreover, we prove that the strong solution converges exponentially to the stationary solution under some suitable assumptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]