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Extreme near-surface wind speeds in cities can have major societal impacts but are not well represented in climate models. Despite this, large-scale dynamics in the free troposphere, which models resolve better, could provide reliable constraints on local extreme winds. This study identifies synoptic circulations associated with midlatitude extreme wind events and assesses how resolution affects their representation in analysis products and a climate model framework. Composites of reanalysis (ERA5) sea level pressure and upper-tropospheric winds during observed extreme wind events reveal distinct circulation structures for each quadrant of the surface-wind rose. Enhanced resolution of the analysis product (ERA5 versus the higher-resolution ECMWF Operational Analysis) reduced wind speed biases but has little impact on capturing occurrences of wind extremes seen in station observations. Composite circulations for surface wind extremes in a climate model (CESM) skillfully reproduce circulations found in reanalysis. Regional refinement of CESM over a region centered on southern Ontario, Canada, using variable resolution (VR-CESM) improves representation of surface ageostrophic circulations and the strength of vertical coupling between upper-level and near-surface winds. We thus can distinguish situations for which regional refinement (dynamical downscaling) is necessary for realistic representation of the large-scale atmospheric circulations associated with extreme winds, from situations where the coarse resolution of standard GCMs is sufficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To assess the effect of ocean‐atmosphere coupling in the climate response to forced sea ice loss, the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project protocol includes centennial coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model simulations with imposed sea ice loss. The protocol, which specifies sea ice concentration and thickness distribution targets, does not prescribe a method for achieving them. Although different methods for imposing sea ice loss (or growth) in models have been documented, testing of the method‐dependence of the resulting climate responses has been limited. Achieving the targeted sea ice state has proven to be challenging using the so‐called ghost‐flux nudging method, which induces ice melt from below, as this method does not constrain the partitioning between thickness and concentration. We propose, describe and test a simple method that combines the advantages of direct sea ice nudging and ghost‐flux nudging. The hybrid nudging method better captures the partitioning between thickness and concentration while conserving total water content. We document how this novel sea ice constraining method reaches specific targets, enhances surface turbulent heat flux responses to sea ice loss, and induces tropospheric warming for both polar regions. Plain Language Summary: The Arctic is warming faster than the global average due to several processes that, once combined, lead to so‐called Arctic Amplification. Part of this anomalous polar warming comes from an intense reduction in ice cover allowing heat into the ocean, warming the Arctic ocean near the surface, hence melting more ice. A joint effort by several climate modeling groups called the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) aims at better understanding Arctic Amplification through a coordinated set of climate simulations. Among this ensemble of simulations is a set of centennial simulations performed with fully coupled state‐of‐the‐art climate models. In these experiments, Arctic (and Antarctic) sea ice are forced to reach specific states in order to better isolate Arctic Amplification and sea ice loss from the rest of anthropogenic global warming. In this paper, we propose a simple technique to nudge sea ice models to specific states such as prescribed by PAMIP. This new method combines advantages from existing techniques to improve the control over the extent and the thickness of the ice. We document how our novel method produces atmospheric warming and circulation responses that are more consistent with previously published results than the existing techniques. Key Points: Already established sea ice nudging method leads to issues in the partitioning between sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice thickness (SIT)New hybrid nudging method significantly improves capture of both SIC and SIT targets for Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project, in particular for Arctic sea iceHybrid scheme increases Arctic turbulent heat flux and warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the circulating atmosphere, diabatic heating influences the potential temperature content of air masses far from where the heating occurs. Budgets that balance local diabatic sources with local heat divergence and storage do not retain information about this remote influence, which requires airmass tracking. In this study, a process-based, passive-tracer diagnostic, called heat tagging, is introduced. Heat tagging locally decomposes the potential temperature into contributions from the distinctive diabatic processes that generate them, wherever they occur. The distribution, variability, and transport of atmospheric heat tags are studied in the relatively simple setting of an idealized aquaplanet model. Heat tags from latent heating are generated in the deep tropics and the midlatitude storm track and then transported throughout the troposphere. By contrast, dry sensible heat tags are enhanced near the surface, and radiative tags are mainly confined to the stratosphere. As a result, local heat transport, variability of potential temperature, and global poleward heat transport are dominated by heat tags related to latent heating, with heat tags from sensible and radiative heating only making contributions in the polar near-surface and the stratosphere, respectively. Heat tagging thus quantifies how water vapor and latent heating link the structural characteristics of the atmosphere and illustrates the importance of the hydrological cycle in poleward energy transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given uncertainty in the processes involved in polar amplification, elucidating the role of poleward heat and moisture transport is crucial. The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) permits robust separation of the effects of sea ice loss from sea surface warming under climate change. We utilize a moist isentropic circulation framework that accounts for moisture transport, condensation, and eddy transport, in order to analyze the circulation connecting the mid‐latitudes and the Arctic. In PAMIP's atmospheric general circulation model experiments, prescribed sea ice loss reduces poleward heat transport (PHT) by warming the returning moist isentropic circulation at high latitudes, while prescribed warming of the ocean surface increases PHT by strengthening the moist isentropic circulation. Inter‐model spread of PHT into the Arctic reflects the tug‐of‐war between sea‐ice and surface‐warming effects. Plain Language Summary: A major conundrum in current climate science is to understand what Arctic changes imply for the climate and environment in mid‐latitude regions. The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) designed a set of climate model experiments to specifically answer this question in a carefully designed, idealized framework. PAMIP's approach is to separate historic and projected climate change into parts associated with Arctic sea ice loss and ocean surface warming and investigate how these two contributions can influence the atmosphere. To isolate these effects, only models can be used, because, in reality, sea ice loss and ocean surface warming are strongly linked together. This letter focuses on what the PAMIP experiments imply for the transport and redistribution of heat and moisture in the atmosphere. In PAMIP, we learn that Arctic sea ice loss causes the atmosphere to reduce the transport of dry and cold air away from the Arctic while ocean warming causes more transport of moist warm air toward the Arctic. These two effects are in a tug‐of‐war, suggesting that climate change can cause a mix of competing impacts on the global energy transport from the tropics to the Arctic. Key Points: Sea ice loss exports static energy from the Arctic by warming the equatorward branch of the global mass circulationSea surface warming imports static energy into the Arctic by increasing the mid‐latitude mass transport, overwhelming the sea ice effectThere is more spread amongst models for the effect of sea‐surface warming than for sea ice loss [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of extratropical ocean warming in the coupled climate response to Arctic sea ice loss is investigated using coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and uncoupled atmospheric-only (AGCM) experiments. Coupled AOGCM experiments driven by sea ice albedo reduction and greenhouse gas–dominated radiative forcing are used to diagnose the extratropical sea surface temperature (SST) response to sea ice loss. Sea ice loss is then imposed in AGCM experiments both with and without these extratropical SST changes, which are found to extend beyond the regions where sea ice is lost. Sea ice loss in isolation drives warming that is confined to the Arctic lower troposphere and only a weak atmospheric circulation response. When the extratropical SST response caused by sea ice loss is also included in the forcing, the warming extends into the Arctic midtroposphere during winter. This coincides with a stronger atmospheric circulation response, including an equatorward shift in the eddy-driven jet, a deepening of the Aleutian low, and an expansion of the Siberian high. Similar results are found whether the extratropical SST forcing is taken directly from the AOGCM driven by sea ice loss, or whether they are diagnosed using a two-parameter pattern scaling technique where tropical adjustment to sea ice loss is removed. These results suggest that AGCM experiments that are driven by sea ice loss and only local SST increases will underestimate the Arctic midtroposphere warming and atmospheric circulation response to sea ice loss, compared to AOGCM simulations and the real world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The distribution of temperatures in the wintertime polar stratosphere is significantly positively skewed, which has important implications for the characteristics of ozone chemistry and stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The typical argument for why the temperature distribution is skewed is that radiative balance sets a firm lower limit, while planetary wave driving can force much larger positive anomalies in temperature. However, the distribution of the upward Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux is also positively skewed, and this suggests that dynamics may play an important role in setting the skewness of the temperature distribution. This study explains the skewness of the upward EP flux distribution by appealing to the ideas of linear interference. In this framework, fluxes are decomposed into a linear term (LIN) that measures the coherence of the wave anomaly and the climatological wave and an additional nonlinear term (NONLIN) that depends only on the wave anomaly. It is shown that when filtered by wavenumber, there is a clear nonlinear dependence between LIN and NONLIN: the terms cancel when LIN is negative, but they reinforce each other when LIN is positive. This leads to the positive skewness of the upward wave activity flux. A toy model of wave interference is constructed, and it is shown that the westward vertical tilt of the climatological wave is the key ingredient to a positively skewed upward EP flux distribution. The causes of the skews of the LIN and NONLIN distributions themselves are shown to be related to relationships between wave phase and amplitude, and wave phase and vertical tilt, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, coupled ocean–atmosphere–land–sea ice Earth system model (ESM) simulations driven separately by sea ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the sea ice loss response of the atmospheric circulation. A pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea ice loss and to the total low-latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea ice loss with low-latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea ice loss and low-latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce subseasonal temperature variability throughout the middle and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A diagnostic of Northern Hemisphere winter extratropical stratosphere–troposphere interactions is presented to facilitate the study of stratosphere–troposphere coupling and to examine what might influence these interactions. The diagnostic is a multivariate EOF combining lower-stratospheric planetary wave activity flux in December with sea level pressure in January. This EOF analysis captures a strong linkage between the vertical component of lower-stratospheric wave activity over Eurasia and the subsequent development of hemisphere-wide surface circulation anomalies, which are strongly related to the Arctic Oscillation. Wintertime stratosphere–troposphere events picked out by this diagnostic often have a precursor in autumn: years with large October snow extent over Eurasia feature strong wintertime upward-propagating planetary wave pulses, a weaker wintertime polar vortex, and high geopotential heights in the wintertime polar troposphere. This provides further evidence for predictability of wintertime circulation based on autumnal snow extent over Eurasia. These results also raise the question of how the atmosphere will respond to a modified snow cover in a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A sector EOF analysis applied to the extratropical tropospheric circulation extracts robust circulation patterns that represent the regional signature of the annular modes. These regional patterns are eastward-propagating, long baroclinic wave structures with the dipolar meridional structure in the streamflow of the annular modes. The regional dipole patterns are also connected to the annular modes through their temporal correlation and their eddy flux signatures. These results serve to relate the hemispheric and the regional perspectives on the annular modes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of zonally asymmetric boundary conditions on the leading modes of variability in a suite of atmospheric general circulation models is investigated. The set of experiments consists of nine model configurations, with varying degrees and types of zonal asymmetry in their boundary conditions. The structure of the leading EOF varies with the zonal asymmetry of the base state for each model configuration. In particular, a close relationship is found between the structure of the EOF and the model storm tracks. An approximately linear relationship is found to hold between the magnitude of the zonal asymmetry of the leading EOF and of the storm tracks in the models. It is shown that this linear relationship extends to the observations. One-point correlation maps centered on the regions where the EOFs reach their maximum amplitude show similar structures for all configurations. These structures consist of a north–south dipole, resembling the observed structure of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). They are significantly more zonally localized than the leading EOF, but do resemble one-point correlation maps and sector EOFs calculated for a simulation with zonally symmetric boundary conditions. Thus, the leading EOF for each simulation appears to represent the longitudinal distribution of zonally localized NAO-like patterns. This longitudinal distribution appears to be tied to the distribution of high-frequency eddies, as represented by the storm tracks. A detailed momentum budget for each case confirms that high-frequency eddies play a crucial role in producing the NAO-like patterns. Other dynamical processes also play an important role, but vary with the details of the simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A simple dynamical model is presented for the basic spatial and temporal structure of the large-scale modes of intraseasonal variability and associated variations in the zonal index. Such variability in the extratropical atmosphere is known to be represented by fairly well-defined patterns, and among the most prominent are the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a more zonally symmetric pattern known as an annular mode, which is most pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere. These patterns may be produced by the momentum fluxes associated with large-scale midlatitude stirring, such as that provided by baroclinic eddies. It is shown how such stirring, as represented by a simple stochastic forcing in a barotropic model, leads to a variability in the zonal flow via a variability in the eddy momentum flux convergence and to patterns similar to those observed. Typically, the leading modes of variability may be characterized as a mixture of “wobbles” in the zonal jet position and “pulses” in the zonal jet strength. If the stochastic forcing is statistically zonally uniform, then the resulting patterns of variability as represented by empirical orthogonal functions are almost zonally uniform and the pressure pattern is dipolar in the meridional direction, resembling an annular mode. If the forcing is enhanced in a zonally localized region, thus mimicking the effects of a storm track over the ocean, then the resulting variability pattern is zonally localized, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation. This suggests that the North Atlantic Oscillation and annular modes are produced by the same mechanism and are manifestations of the same phenomenon. The time scale of variability of the patterns is longer than the decorrelation time scale of the stochastic forcing, because of the temporal integration of the forcing by the equations of motion limited by the effects of nonlinear dynamics and friction. For reasonable parameters these produce a decorrelation time of the order of 5–10 days. The model also produces some long-term (100 days or longer) variability, without imposing such variability via the external parameters except insofar as it is contained in the nearly white stochastic forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies the theory of nonzonal wave-mean flow interaction in two-dimensional horizontal flows, by exploring a dynamic analogy with the density thickness flux approach. Role of large-scale extratropical eddies in the atmospheric general circulation; Potential vorticity (PV) thickness and modified mean PV equations; Dynamics of the equation; Summary; Discussion.

Studies the barotropic modulation using simple models of wave propagation. Separation of regions of uniform barotropic potential vorticity; Modulation of the structure and amplitude of upper-tropospheric eddies by the longitudinal variations in the upper-tropospheric time-mean flow; Analysis by nonlinear contour-dynamical simulations.

Arctic amplification of anthropogenic climate change is widely attributed to the sea-ice albedo feedback, with its attendant increase in absorbed solar radiation, and to the effect of the vertical structure of atmospheric warming on Earth's outgoing longwave radiation. The latter lapse rate feedback is subject, at high latitudes, to a myriad of local and remote influences whose relative contributions remain unquantified. The distinct controls on the high-latitude lapse rate feedback are here partitioned into "upper" and "lower" contributions originating above and below a characteristic climatological isentropic surface that separates the high-latitude lower troposphere from the rest of the atmosphere. This decomposition clarifies how the positive high-latitude lapse rate feedback over polar oceans arises primarily as an atmospheric response to local sea ice loss and is reduced in subpolar latitudes by an increase in poleward atmospheric energy transport. The separation of the locally driven component of the high-latitude lapse rate feedback further reveals how it and the sea-ice albedo feedback together dominate Arctic amplification as a coupled mechanism operating across the seasonal cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]