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The frequency of large-scale anomalous precipitation events over China has increased during 1961–2018. However, it remains challenging to understand the mechanisms associated with these anomalous events showing different spatial patterns. Here, we applied an autoencoder technique to identify large-scale anomalous precipitation events for both observations and model simulations, which were then classified into several patterns through a self-organizing map method. The synoptic behavior and atmospheric circulation background of different anomalous patterns were also analyzed using simultaneous composite analyses. Results show that occurrences of different anomalous precipitation patterns have increased significantly, except those centered in North China, Northeast China, and the Yangtze River basin. The anomalous precipitation patterns manifest various intraseasonal distributions, which are linked to zonal oscillations of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) and meridional displacements of East Asia westerly jet (EAJ). Accompanied by the westward movement of WNPSH, anticyclonic systems transport warm moist air from the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea to converge with the cold air caused by anomalous cyclones over the northwest flank of the WNPSH, leading to large-scale anomalous precipitation in these regions. Besides WNPSH, the northward and southward displacements of EAJ also favor the occurrence of anomalous precipitation events in northern and southern China, respectively. Our study also illustrates that the occurrence frequency of anomalous precipitation events is projected to increase remarkably under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP585) scenario by rates of twofold to fourfold. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study identifies the variability of large‐scale atmospheric patterns (LSMPs) and atmospheric moisture circulation patterns associated with the variability of daily precipitation over East China using the self‐organizing maps (SOM) method. The spatiotemporal characteristics of the occurrence and intensity of daily precipitation were linked with the variabilities of LSMPs. Results show that the synoptic moisture transport over East China in both dry season and rainy season can be classified into eight patterns, and the occurrence frequency and primary occurring months of the eight patterns are varied. In the dry season, the wetter pattern (the drier pattern) exhibits a significant decreasing (increasing) trend with a slope of −0.23 (0.63)% year−1 at the confidence level of 0.95 during 1979–2018. The LSMPs corresponding to each atmospheric moisture circulation pattern, including the composite mean values of vertically integrated water vapour transport fields, 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) anomalies and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in surrounding oceans, indicate that the primary oceanic moisture source of the dry season is western North Pacific (WNP), while that of the rainy season is WNP and the Indian Ocean. The location and intensity variabilities of subtropical high affect the transport and amount of water vapour along with its western flank to arrive in East China. SSTA has an influential link with the regional circulations and convection activity, and thus plays an important role in affecting water vapour transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both large-scale atmospheric circulation and moisture content in the atmosphere govern regional precipitation. We partition recent changes in mean, heavy, and extreme precipitation for all seasons over Canada to changes in synoptic circulation patterns (dynamic changes) and in atmospheric moisture conditions (thermodynamic changes) using 500-hPa geopotential height and precipitation data over 1979–2014. Using the self-organizing map (SOM) cluster analysis, we identify statistically significant trends in occurrences of certain synoptic circulation patterns over the Canadian landmass, which have dynamically contributed to observed changes in precipitation totals and occurrence of heavy and extreme precipitation events over Canada. Occurrences of circulation patterns such as westerlies and ridges over western North America and the North Pacific have considerably affected regional precipitation over Canada. Precipitation intensity and occurrences of precipitation extremes associated with each SOM circulation pattern also showed statistically significant trends resulting from thermodynamic changes in the atmospheric moisture supply for precipitation events. A partition analysis based on the thermodynamic–dynamic partition method indicates that most (~90%) changes in mean and extreme precipitation over Canada resulted from changes in precipitation regimes occurring under each synoptic circulation pattern (thermodynamic changes). Other regional precipitation changes resulted from changes in occurrences of synoptic circulation patterns (dynamic changes). Because of the high spatial variability of precipitation response to changes in thermodynamic and dynamic conditions, dynamic contributions could offset thermodynamic contributions to precipitation changes over some regions if thermodynamic and dynamic contributions are in opposition to each other (negative or positive), which would result in minimal changes in precipitation intensity and occurrences of heavy and extreme precipitation events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The change structures of precipitation and precipitation intensity and rainy days are analyzed for the Pearl River Basin (from 1959 to 2009) on the basis of a suite of 24 climatic indices derived from daily precipitation data at 62 meteorological stations with the help of the Mann-Kendall test. Contributions of seasonal precipitation and precipitation intensity class to the annual precipitation are also examined using the inverse distance weighted method. The following four conclusions can be drawn: (1) although the average annual precipitation of the entire basin does not show obvious variation, the number of annual rainy days has decreased significantly in 98.3 % of the stations. These two factors result in an obvious increase in precipitation intensity at 64.5 % of the stations. (2) No clear change trend has been found for seasonal precipitation over the entire area; however, the number of rainy days in each season has decreased significantly. In particular, the number of rainy days in the entire year and in the fall season has decreased in 98.3 and 100 % of the stations, respectively. (3) Although the number of rainy days in drizzle has decreased in 83.9 % of the stations, the number of rainy days where heavy rain and extremely heavy rain occurred increased in nearly 75.8 and 82.3 % of the stations, respectively. (4) The number of rainy days in fall and winter contributes more to the change in the number of annual rainy days than the number of rainy days in spring and summer. Heavy rain and extremely heavy rain contribute more to the change in total annual precipitation than drizzle; however, they contribute less to the change in the number of annual rainy days than drizzle. The findings in this study can provide important information for formulating water resource and eco-environment management strategies in the Pearl River Basin to policymakers and stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Thermodynamic changes are conducive to the increased occurrence of extreme spring fire weather over western Canada. • Human-induced climate changes are responsible for the increasing occurrences of extreme spring fire over western Canada. • The spring warming and drying trends over western Canada cannot be attributed to large-scale climate variability. Abstract On May 2016 an extreme large wildfire affected Fort McMurray of Canada, leading to the largest wildfire evacuation and the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history. This wildfire was caused by extremely warm and dry weather conditions in spring. Here we investigate thermodynamic and dynamic (atmospheric circulation) conditions, and teleconnections conducive to extreme wildfire climate of western Canada since 1871. Results show that the extreme wildfire was very likely an outcome of anthropogenic effects that increase the occurrence of a persistent upper ridge associated with a warm and dry weather over western Canada. Changes in dynamic conditions decreased temperature and increased precipitation, while changes in thermodynamic conditions increased temperature and decreased precipitation. Thus the observed increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation on 26 April–15 May over western Canada were caused by changes in thermodynamic conditions. Although the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern was teleconnected with the occurrence of certain synoptic circulation patterns over western Canada, changes in the occurrence of the synoptic circulation pattern associated with the extreme wildfire cannot be explained by increased occurrences of the positive phase of PNA. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have not been found to have contributed to wildfire weather in western Canada. The spring warming and drying trends since 1871 over western Canada cannot be attributed to changes in common teleconnections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]