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Dynamical prediction of monsoon rainfall has been an important topic and a long-standing issue in both research and operational community. This paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction skill of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall using the hindcast record from the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, BCC CSM1.1m, during the period 1983–2019. The model exhibits reasonable skills for predicting the EASM rainfall at all lead times with the skill dropping dramatically from the shortest lead time of about 2 weeks (LM0) to 1-month lead (LM1), and then fluctuating remarkably throughout 2-month to 12-month lead times. Over the EASM domain, the rapid decline of the S2S rainfall prediction skill from LM0 to LM1 is mainly caused by the inferior skills over Central China in July and over Northeast China in August. Composite analysis based on hindcast records suggest that these inferior skills are directly tied to the model's difficulties in capturing above-normal precipitation over eastern Central China and Northeast China in the respective months, which are further shown to be associated with anomalous weakening and meridional movement of the Northwestern Pacific subtropical high and the activity of large-scale teleconnection pattern hard to be predicted over northeastern Asia in summer, respectively. These findings inform the intrinsic limits of the S2S predictability of the EASM rainfall by a dynamical model, and strongly suggest that the level of confidence placed upon S2S forecasts should be stratified by large-scale circulation anomalies known to significantly affect the prediction skill, e.g., the subtropical high and high-latitude teleconnection patterns for summer monsoon rainfall prediction in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A model‐circulation increment‐based dynamic statistical technique (MIDST) is proposed in this paper to improve the prediction of summer rainfall over southern China (SC) where quite low prediction skills have been found in the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 with a moderate resolution (BCC_CSM1.1m). The results show that BCC_CSM1.1m can hardly represent the variability of the summer rainfall anomaly and its year‐to‐year increment over SC, and the skillful predictions are mostly confined over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Using the dynamic model output and statistical method, the MIDST is established to capture the coupled modes between the year‐to‐year increments of the summer rainfall anomaly and the associated simultaneous three‐dimensional coupled air‐sea circulation predictors. The cross‐validation indicates that the prediction skills of the MIDST are evidently improved for both the summer rainfall increment prediction and summer rainfall anomaly prediction compared with the direct BCC_CSM1.1m prediction. The skillful prediction can persist for long forecast leads over most regions except southwestern China. As the major predictability source of seasonal prediction, the intense response to changes in the circulation related to the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well captured, and thus, the performance improvement of the MIDST is primarily due to its more realistic representation of the incremental circulation related to the ENSO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Q-SAT, a small spherical satellite designed and developed by Tsinghua university, was successfully launched on Aug 6, 2020 at Jiuquan satellite launch center in China. The mission of Q-Sat is the joint measurement of long-wavelength Earth gravity field and upper atmosphere density, which is of great significance for improving spacecraft orbit prediction and promoting the development of satellite gravity measurement technology. The satellite is designed in spherical shape innovatively and deploys high dynamic dual-frequency GPS as the main payload. On-orbit data shows that the atmospheric density detection precision is in the order of 10−14kg/m3 and the gravity recovery precision achieves the level of 30 orders. All mission success criteria and objectives were achieved. This paper presents the design, space mission, key technologies, science capabilities and preliminary results of the satellite. • Q-SAT, a spherical satellite for the joint measurement of long-wavelength Earth gravity field and upper atmosphere density, was launched in 2020. • An electromagnetic separation system with point connection-release structure is designed for the Q-Sat. • As secondary payload a powerful GPU module is implemented to validate artificial intelligence computing capabilities in orbit. • Modifications for the Jacchia-Roberts atmospheric density model are proposed in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foggy weather is an important factor affecting highway traffic safety. Research on the automatic recognition method of highway fog visibility from surveillance images can provide technical support for the intelligent management and decision-making of the traffic management department. This paper analyzes multiple physical factors related to fog density based on the atmospheric scattering model and proposes a multi-channel fusion network that integrates these physical factors. Specifically, the method jointly exploits three streams to learn deep visual feature, transmission matrix feature and scene depth feature, and designs an attention fusion module to adaptively fuse these three streams for the final visibility level recognition, which is very beneficial for improving the recognition accuracy. Meanwhile, this paper constructs a synthetic dataset and a real-scene dataset for network parameters learning and performance evaluation. The images in the real-scene dataset are collected from surveillance videos of multiple highways in China. Experiments on these two datasets show that this method can identify visibility level more accurately than existing methods [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Local Climate Zone (LCZ) classification scheme is a vital method of building a category dataset for high-resolution urban land. For the development of urban meteorology, air pollution and related disciplines, the high-resolution classification data of urban buildings are very important. This study aims to create LCZ datasets with detailed architectural characteristics for major cities and urban agglomerations in China, and obtain more accurate results. We constructed 120 m resolution land use datasets for 63 cities (mainly provincial capitals, municipalities directly under the Central Government, important prefecture-level cities and special administrative regions) and 4 urban agglomerations in China based on the local climate zone (LCZ) classification scheme using the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools method (WUDAPT). Nearly 100,000 samples were used, of which 76,000 training samples were used to provide spectral signatures and 23,000 validation samples were used to ensure accuracy assessments. Compared with similar studies, the LCZ datasets in this paper were generally of good quality, with an overall accuracy of 71–93% (mean 82%), an accuracy for built classifications of 57–83% (mean 72%), and an accuracy for natural classifications of 70–99% (mean 90%). In addition, 35% of 63 Chinese cities have construction areas of more than 5%, and the plateaus northwest of Chengdu and Chongqing are covered with snow all year round. Therefore, based on the original LCZ classification system, the construction area (LZC H) and the snow cover (LCZ I) were newly added as the basic classifications of urban LCZ classification in China. Detailed architectural features of cities and urban agglomerations in China are provided by the LCZ datasets in this study. It can be applied to fine numerical models of the meteorological and atmospheric environment and improve the prediction accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rice is a major staple food grain for more than half of the world's population, and China is the largest rice producer and consumer in the world. In a climate-warming context, the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves tend to increase, and rice production will be exposed to higher heat damage risks. Understanding the negative impacts of climate change on the rice supply is a critical issue. In this study, a new perspective on agricultural weather index insurance is proposed to investigate the impact of extreme high-temperature events on rice production in South China in the context of climate change. Based on data from meteorological stations in Anhui Province in China from 1961 to 2018 and the projected data from five Global Climate Models under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios from 2021 to 2099, the spatial–temporal characteristics of heat stress and its influence on rice production were analyzed by employing a weather index insurance model. The interdecadal breakpoints in the trends of the heat stress weather insurance index (HSWI) and the payout from 1961 to 2018 in 1987 were both determined, which are consistent with the more significant global warming since the 1980s. The largest increase after 1987 was found in the southeastern part of the study area. The projected HSWI and the payout increased significantly from 2021 to 2099, and their growth was faster with higher radiative forcing levels. The HSWI values were on average 1.4 times, 3.3 times and 6.1 times higher and the payouts were on average 3.9 times, 9.8 times and 15.0 times higher than the reference values for the near future, mid-future and far future, respectively. The results suggest that a more severe influence of heat damage on rice production will probably happen in the future, and it is vital to develop relevant adaptation strategies for the effects of a warmer climate and heat stress on rice production. This paper provides an alternative way to transform the evaluation of the extreme climate event index into the quantitative estimation of disaster impacts on crop production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To examine the characteristics of future precipitation under climate change is of great significance to urban water security. In this paper, multiple machine learning techniques, i.e., statistical downscaling model (SDSM), support vector machine (SVM), and multilayer perceptron (MLP), were used to downscale large-scale climatic variables simulated by the General Circulation Models (GCMs) to precipitation on a local scale. It was demonstrated in Shenzhen city, China, through multisite downscaling schemes based on projections from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2-HR), Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model Version 2.0 (MRI-ESM2.0), and Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM2-MR). The obtained results showed that the downscaled precipitation would provide good monthly simulations against observations at 10 discrete stations. Regardless of superior performance of SVM and MLP over SDSM, the daily precipitation simulations should be further improved, and downscaling of heavy daily precipitations would be promoted by quantile mapping corrections. Due to the relatively poor simulation performance of BCC-CSM2-MR, the other two climate models were considered under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios) for ensemble precipitation projections for 2015–2100. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the amounts of annual average precipitation for 10 stations were estimated to be higher relative to the historical period (2.7%–17%), and 9 out of 10 stations presented an increasing trend. However, downward trends also existed at three stations when it comes to scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Moreover, a significantly positive trend was found to dominate the trend changes of annual extreme daily precipitation during 2015–2050, but the detected trends at stations were greatly dependent on the downscaling techniques and climate models. Besides, the increase in daily extreme precipitations for various return periods as well as statistically different precipitation characteristics for discrete stations would further shed light on urgent demands on urban resilient strategies for climate change adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The arid region of northwest China (ARNC) is one of the most sensitive areas to global warming. However, the performance of new Global Climate Models (GCMs) from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in simulating climate in this region, especially in the subregions, is not clear yet. Based on the temperature dataset from historical runs of CMIP6, this paper analyzed and evaluated the simulation ability of 29 GCMs in reproducing the annual mean temperature (tas), annual mean maximum temperature (tasmax) and annual mean minimum temperature (tasmin) in the ARNC and subregions from 1961 to 2014. The results show that (1) the correlation coefficients (CCs) between simulation and observation time series for the mean of two model ensembles (MME for equal-weight multi-model ensemble and PME for preferred-model ensemble) are generally better than those of 29 individual GCMs, with CCs ranging from 0.38 to 0.87 (p < 0.01). (2) All the models can simulate the significant warming trend of the three temperature elements in the study area well. However, the warming magnitude simulated by most of the models (41%) is smaller than the observations except for tasmax, which is also shown in the MME. (3) The spatial pattern of the three temperature elements can be better reflected by most models. Model simulation ability for the ARNC is better compared to that of the four subregions, with a spatial CC greater than 0.7 (p < 0.01). Among the subregions, the simulation performance of the north of Xinjiang for spatial pattern is superior to that of the other regions. (4) The preferred models for each subregion are various and should be treated differently when used. Overall, the PME outperforms both the MME and the individual models; it can not only simulate the linear trend accurately but also reduce the deviation effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hydrological projections provided by the outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs) combining hydrological models include multi‐source uncertainties, which may challenge the formulation of relevant adaption and mitigation policies. In this paper, the overall uncertainty and the relative contribution of each uncertainty component were investigated for hydrological projections over 408 watersheds in China by using 3 shared socioeconomic pathway emission scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5), 21 GCMs, 8 bias correction methods, 4 hydrological models, and 2 sets of optimized hydrological model parameters. The results show that the total uncertainty (T) is mainly contributed by uncertainty related to global climate models (G), with the mean percentage ranging from 60.4 to 64.1%, followed by the interaction uncertainties among all components, with the mean percentage ranging from 22.0 to 26.4%. The uncertainty contribution of hydrological models (H) (6.1–9.4%) ranks third, followed by emission scenarios (S) (2.9–5.9%) and bias correction methods (B) (0.2–1.1%). The uncertainty contribution of the optimized hydrological model parameters (P) (0.2–0.3%) is almost negligible. In terms of spatial variability, the relative contribution of uncertainty related to global climate models (G) is the highest in the near future for northern China (67.5–70.6%) and in the far future for southern China (66.1–66.7%). However, it was found to be lower for the Tibetan Plateau and northwestern China (45.3–57.9%) in the near and far future. The relative contribution of hydrological model uncertainty is higher for southwestern and northwestern China and the Tibetan Plateau (7.2–19.5%) and lower for northern, eastern, and southern China (2.5–6.6%). This study highlights the importance of including multiple GCMs and hydrological models in hydrological impact studies to consider their overall uncertainty. The development of global climate models and hydrological models is still the best way to reduce the uncertainty of climate change impact studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents projections of climate extremes over China under global warming of 1.5, 2, and 3 °C above pre-industrial (1861–1900), based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations. Results are compared with what produced by the precedent phase of the project, CMIP5. Model evaluation for the reference period (1985–2005) indicates that CMIP6 models outperform their predecessors in CMIP5, especially in simulating precipitation extremes. Areal averages for changes of most indices are found larger in CMIP6 than in CMIP5. The emblematic annual mean temperature, when averaged over the whole of China in CMIP6, increases by 1.49, 2.21, and 3.53 °C (relative to 1985–2005) for 1.5, 2, and 3 °C above-preindustrial global warming levels, while the counterpart in CMIP5 is 1.20, 1.93 and 3.39 °C respectively. Similarly, total precipitation increases by 5.3%, 8.6%, and 16.3% in CMIP6 and by 4.4%, 7.0% and 12.8% in CMIP5, respectively. The spatial distribution of changes for extreme indices is generally consistent in both CMIP5 and CMIP6, but with significantly higher increases in CMIP6 over Northeast and Northwest China for the hottest day temperature, and South China for the coldest night temperature. In the south bank of the Yangtze River, and most regions around 40°N, CMIP6 shows higher increases for both total precipitation and heavy precipitation. The projected difference between CMIP6 and CMIP5 is mainly attributable to the physical upgrading of climate models and largely independent from their emission scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are important warm-season precipitation systems in eastern China. However, our knowledge of their climatology and capability in their simulation is still insufficient. This paper examines their characteristics over the 2008–2017 warm seasons using convection-permitting climate simulations (CPCSs) with a 3-km grid spacing that explicitly resolves MCSs, as well as a high-resolution gauge-satellite merged precipitation product. An object-based tracking algorithm is applied to identify MCSs. Results indicate that the MCS genesis and occurrence are closely related to the progression of the East Asian monsoon and are modulated by the underlying topography. On average, about 243 MCSs are observed each season and contribute 19% and 47% to total and extreme warm-season precipitation. The climatological attributes and variabilities are reasonably reproduced in the CPCS. The major model deficiencies are excessive small MCS occurrence and overmuch MCS rainfall, consequently overestimating the precipitation contributions, whereas observational uncertainties may play a role too. Both the observed and simulated MCS precipitation feature a nocturnal or morning maximum and an eastward delayed diurnal peak east of the Tibetan Plateau, in contrast to the dominant afternoon peak of non-MCS precipitation. The favorable comparison with observations demonstrates the capability of CPCSs in simulating MCSs in the Asian monsoon climate, and its usefulness in projecting the future changes of MCSs under global warming. The finding that non-MCS precipitation is responsible for the high biased afternoon precipitation provides helpful guidance for further model improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change is expected to have a major impact on the hydrological cycle. Understanding potential changes in future extreme precipitation is important to the planning of industrial and agricultural water use, flood control, and ecological environment protection. In this paper, we study the statistical distribution of extreme precipitation based on historical observation and various global climate models (GCMs), and predict the expected change and the associated uncertainty. The empirical frequency, generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, and L-moment estimator algorithms are used to establish the statistical distribution relationships and the multi-model ensemble predictions are established by the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method. This ensemble forecast takes advantage of multi-model synthesis, which is an effective measure to reduce the uncertainty of model selection in extreme precipitation forecasting. We have analyzed the relationships among extreme precipitation, return period, and precipitation durations for 6 representative cities in China. More significantly, the approach allows for establishing the uncertainty of extreme precipitation predictions. The empirical frequency from the historical data is all within the 90% confidence interval of the BMA ensemble. For the future predictions, the extreme precipitation intensities of various durations tend to become larger compared to the historic results. The extreme precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario is greater than that under the RCP2.6 scenario. The developed approach not only effectively gives the extreme precipitation predictions, but also can be used to any other extreme hydrological events in future climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Atmospheric segmentation model is proposed considering aerosol optical depth. • Proposed model improves the accuracy of radiative cooling potential prediction. • Relative error of the predicted and experimental radiative cooling potential is 2.4%. • Map of radiative cooling potential in China is derived based on the proposed model. Radiative cooling offers a wide range of potential applications in the current promotion of clean energy. However, the radiative cooling potential is generally underestimated, accounting for ignoring the effect of aerosols on atmospheric longwave downward radiation. This paper proposes an atmospheric segmentation model to improve the accuracy of radiative cooling potential prediction. The heat transfer on the radiative cooling surface is analyzed, and the accuracy of the proposed atmospheric segmentation model is verified with experiments and compared with the models in existing studies. Then, the effects of aerosol optical depth, precipitable water vapor, and relative humidity on the radiative cooling potential are discussed in detail based on the atmospheric segmentation model. Finally, the map of radiative cooling potential in China is also derived from the proposed atmospheric segmentation model. The results show that the relative error of radiative cooling power between the atmospheric segmentation model prediction and experiment is only 2.4%. Furthermore, the measured and calculated atmospheric longwave downward radiations match well with each other, in which the Pearson correlation coefficients and root mean square errors are 0.9834 and 11.34 W/m2 under clear sky conditions and 0.94211 and 21.32 W/m2 under cloudy sky conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing penetration of renewable energy leads to seasonal fluctuation in the power system. This also results in continuous low-renewable-output events, which pose significant challenges for ensuring adequate renewable energy supply and arouse growing concern. To analyze the seasonal fluctuation characteristics of renewable in different timescales, this paper first decomposes the renewable time series into three components: climate, seasonal, and daily. Then an Itô process is introduced to model the climate and daily components considering the time series' stochastic characteristics and time correlations. Finally, the proposed model is first tested based on case studies on historical data from two selected weather stations in China. Moreover, the method is further applied to analyzing data from 253 weather stations across China at the provincial level. The results indicate that low-renewable-output events are more likely to have a longer duration in central China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) are of critical importance to reliable and economical power system operations. To further improve the PLF performance, this paper extends the load forecasting model with high accuracy to PLF by using Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout and soft thresholding (ST) for uncertainty modeling and noise reduction, respectively. Specifically, the method first builds a Dual-stage Attention-based Long and Short Time Pattern Network (DA-LSTPNet) by weighting the temporal information extracted from Gate Recurrent Unit (GRU) and convolutional neural networks (CNN) through the time attention mechanism(TAM). Then, an adaptive ST structure is used to reduce the impact of meteorological data noise on model prediction performance. The term ST-DA-LSTPNet refers to DA-LSTPNet with the addition of the ST structure. Finally, an appropriate Dropout setting is inserted in the neural network layers during the model's testing phase to achieve the model parameters' stochastic process. After multiple sampling and calculations, the final PLF result is obtained. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, this work construct a case study using the actual data from a prefecture-level city in southern China. Compared with several benchmark methods, the proposed method significantly improves the performance of PLF and has good anti-noise generalization ability. [Display omitted] • The high-accuracy load forecasting model extends to probabilistic load forecasting. • The adaptive soft thresholding can mitigate noise impact on prediction. • The model performs well on actual grid data, with over 92% prediction coverage. • This work provides effective support for economic scheduling and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is an important factor that limits economic and social development due to its frequent occurrence and profound influence. Therefore, it is of great significance to make accurate predictions of drought for earlywarning and disaster alleviation. In this paper, SPEI-1was confirmed to classify drought grades in the Guanzhong Area, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), random forest (RF) and support vectormachine (SVM)modelwere established. Meteorological data and remote sensing datawere used to derive the predictionmodels. The results showed the following. (1) The SVM model performed the best when themodelswere developed using meteorological data, remote sensing data and a combination of meteorological and remote sensing data, but the model's corresponding kernel functions are different and include linear, polynomial and Gaussian radial basis kernel functions, respectively. (2) The RF model driven by the remote sensing data and the SVMmodel driven by the combinedmeteorological and remote sensing data were found to perform better than the model driven by the corresponding other data in the Guanzhong Area. It is difficult to accurately measure drought with the singlemeteorological data. Only by considering the combined factors can we more accurately monitor and predict drought. This study can provide an important scientific basis for regional drought warnings and predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the local and non-local climatic effects of wetter arid areas of Northwestern China (ANWC) in summer using a fully coupled climate model. In response to soil moisture increase, the local air temperature significantly decreases, and precipitation increases in summer. The wetter ANWC results in a warmer and rainless climate over the Central part of North China Plain (CNCP). While the influence of increasing soil moisture on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) precipitation is negligible due to the high altitude. A cooler climate over ANWC leads to an abnormal descending motion occurring. Meanwhile, an anomalous high pressure and an abnormal anticyclonic circulation occurs in 500 hPa over the west of ANWC. Correspondingly, a huge anomalous cyclone circulation occurs over the northeastern part of China and Mongolia, which can hinder the northward movement of the East Asian summer Monsoon (EASM) and reduce the water vapor transport into Central China Plain. As a result, the weakened EASM thus leads to rainless over CNCP. As soil moisture increases over ANWC is stronger, the magnitudes of the influence on the atmospheric field become larger. This study highlights the wetter ANWC effect on local climate and provides more information about the mechanism of wetter ANWC remote effect on non-local climate. • This paper examines the local and non-local climatic effects of wetter arid areas of Northwestern China (ANWC) in summer using a fully coupled climate model. • It finds that the wetter ANWC can result in a warmer and rainless climate over the Central part of North China Plain (CNCP) through a complex atmospheric circulation response. • A cooler climate leads to an abnormal descending motion occurring over ANWC. • A huge anomalous cyclone circulation over the northeastern part of China and Mongolia can block the East Asian summer Monsoon northward and decrease the water vapor transport into Central China Plain. • This study highlights the wetter ANWC effect on local climate and provides more information about the mechanism of wetter ANWC remote effect on non-local climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water resources are indispensable for all social-economic activities and ecosystem functions. In addition, changes in water resources have great significance for agricultural production. This paper uses five global climate models from CMIP5 to evaluate the future spatiotemporal variation in water resources in China under four RCP scenarios. The results show that the available precipitation significantly decreases due to evapotranspiration. Comparing the four RCP scenarios, the national average of the available precipitation is the highest under the RCP 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios, followed by that under the RCP 8.5 scenario. In terms of spatial distribution, the amount of available precipitation shows a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. Regarding temporal changes, the available precipitation under RCP 8.5 exhibits a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, while the available precipitation under the RCP 6.0 scenario exhibits a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. Under the RCP 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios, the available precipitation increases, and the RCP 4.5 scenario has a higher rate of increase than that of RCP 2.6. In the context of climate change, changes in water resources and temperature cause widespread increases in potential agricultural productivity around Hu's line, especially in southwestern China. However, the potential agricultural productivity decreases in a large area of southeastern China. Hu's line has a partial breakthrough in the locking of agriculture, mainly in eastern Tibet, western Sichuan, northern Yunnan and northwestern Inner Mongolia. The results provide a reference for the management and deployment of future water resources and can aid in agricultural production in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In aiming for better access to climate change information and for providing climate service, it is important to obtain reliable high-resolution temperature simulations. Systematic comparisons are still deficient between statistical and dynamic downscaling techniques because of their inherent unavoidable uncertainties. In this paper, 20 global climate models (GCMs) and one regional climate model [Providing Regional Climates to Impact Studies (PRECIS)] are employed to evaluate their capabilities in reproducing average trends of mean temperature (Tm), maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), diurnal temperature range (DTR), and extreme events represented by frost days (FD) and heat-wave days (HD) across China. It is shown generally that bias of temperatures from GCMs relative to observations is over ±1°C across more than one-half of mainland China. PRECIS demonstrates better representation of temperatures (except for HD) relative to GCMs. There is relatively better performance in Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, south Yangzi River, and South China, whereas estimation is not as good in Xinjiang, the eastern part of northwest China, and the Tibetan Plateau. Bias-correction spatial disaggregation is used to downscale GCMs outputs, and bias correction is applied for PRECIS outputs, which demonstrate better improvement to a bias within ±0.2°C for Tm, Tmax, Tmin, and DTR and ±2 days for FD and HD. Furthermore, such improvement is also verified by the evidence of increased spatial correlation coefficient and symmetrical uncertainty, decreased root-mean-square error, and lower standard deviation for reproductions. It is seen from comprehensive ranking metrics that different downscaled models show the most improvement across different climatic regions, implying that optional ensembles of models should be adopted to provide sufficient high-quality climate information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of global warming, the future spatiotemporal distribution of aerosols in China is a common concern of the government and the scientific community. In this study, the regional climate model RegCM4 is used to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution of anthropogenic aerosols including sulfate, black carbon, and organic carbon in China around 2030 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios and estimate the contributions of climate difference, emission difference, and extra-regional transport difference to the change of anthropogenic aerosol concentration in the study area. The results show that the annual average concentrations of anthropogenic aerosols around 2030 decreased significantly with respect to those around 2010, and the decrease amplitude of black carbon surface concentration is the smallest, especially in the RCP8.5 scenario. The annual averages for sulfate, black carbon, and organic carbon surface concentrations in the central and eastern parts of China will be 8.5, 1.7, and 3.7 μg m−3, respectively, under the RCP4.5 scenario, whereas 10.0, 2.2, and 4.4 μg m−3, respectively, under the RCP8.5 scenario. The surface concentration of sulfate is higher in summer and spring, while lower in winter and autumn. The surface concentrations of black carbon and organic carbon are higher in winter and lower in other seasons. The results of sensitivity experiments demonstrate that the future difference in local emissions between RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios has the greatest impact on the anthropogenic aerosol concentrations throughout China, while the effects of future climate difference and extra-regional transport difference are much smaller around 2030. For the aerosol column burdens, the effect of future local emission difference between the two scenarios is still dominant, and the effect of extra-regional transport difference becomes very significant during spring and winter for organic carbon and black carbon. The results of this paper suggest that the impacts of future climate difference and extra-regional transport difference between RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios on anthropogenic aerosols are non-negligible in certain regions and seasons besides the impact of future local emission difference in China around 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This review summarizes the scientific and technical progress in atmospheric modeling in China since 2011, including the dynamical core, model physics, data assimilation, ensemble forecasting, and model evaluation strategies. In terms of the dynamical core, important efforts have been made in the improvement of the existing model formulations and in exploring new modeling approaches that can better adapt to massively parallel computers and global multiscale modeling. With regard to model physics, various achievements in physical representations have been made, especially a trend toward scale-aware parameterization for accommodating the increase of model resolution. In the field of data assimilation, a 4D-Var system has been developed and is operationally used by the National Meteorological Center of China, and its performance is promising. Furthermore, ensemble forecasting has played a more important role in operational forecast systems and progressed in many fundamental techniques. Model evaluation strategies, including key performance metrics and standardized experimental protocols, have been proposed and widely applied to better understand the strengths and weaknesses of the systems, offering key routes for model improvement. The paper concludes with a concise summary of the status quo and a brief outlook in terms of future development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Elucidating the vertical structures of clouds is key to reducing the uncertainty in cloud-induced climate forcing; however, we do not yet know explicitly about the cloud structures that form over Beijing, China, and how they vary. In this paper, we document vertically resolved cloud structures and their climatological variation based on three-year (1 January 2015 to 31 December 2017) ground-based Ka-band (35 GHz) millimeter-wave cloud radar (MMCR) measurements. Cloud top height (CTH) and radar reflectivity are higher in summer and autumn than in spring and winter. We verified the MMCR measurements of the CTH and cloud base height (CBH) independently based on observations from the Himawari-8 and CL51 ceilometer at the same station, respectively. The CTH decreased as the thickness of the cloud layer increased. This may have been due to the mechanism used to determine the CTH, which was based on data from the satellite infrared channel. There were two peaks in the CBH distribution, located at 0–1 km and 5–6 km, whereas the frequency of the CTH peaked at an altitude of 9–10 km, between 1200 and 1800 LST. Precipitating clouds tended to be located at lower altitudes and exhibited stronger radar reflectivities than non-precipitating clouds. The cloud frequency tended to peak in autumn and reached a minimum in winter. In terms of the seasonality of clouds at various levels, middle- and high-level clouds were dominant over Beijing, with high and low (precipitating) clouds concentrated between May and October. Mid-altitude clouds occurred more frequently in winter and spring. CTH peaked in summer due to the strong solar radiation received by the surface. In contrast, minimum CBH occurred in winter. The cloud heights were higher and radar reflectivities larger than reported in previous studies. These results are correlated with urban warming effects. Understanding the properties of clouds will not only be of benefit to researchers carrying out cloud forcing studies, but will also provide key validation data for climate model simulations. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • The cloud vertical structures in Beijing are elucidated using 3-year observations • Cloud structures from MMCR, Himawari-8 and ceilometer agree with each other very well • Cloud top heights are shown to decrease as the cloud layer thickness increases [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal features of heat waves in 20-year regional climate simulations over East Asia, and investigates the capability of WRF to reproduce observational heat waves in China. Within the framework of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), the WRF model is driven by the ERA-Interim (ERAIN) reanalysis, and five continuous simulations are conducted from 1989 to 2008. Of these, four runs apply the interior spectral nudging (SN) technique with different wavenumbers, nudging variables and nudging coefficients. Model validations show that WRF can reasonably reproduce the spatiotemporal features of heat waves in China. Compared with the experiment without SN, the application of SN is effectie on improving the skill of the model in simulating both the spatial distributions and temporal variations of heat waves of different intensities. The WRF model shows advantages in reproducing the synoptic circulations with SN and therefore yields better representations for heat wave events. Besides, the SN method is able to preserve the variability of large-scale circulations quite well, which in turn adjusts the extreme temperature variability towards the observation. Among the four SN experiments, those with stronger nudging coefficients perform better in modulating both the spatial and temporal features of heat waves. In contrast, smaller nudging coefficients weaken the effects of SN on improving WRF's performances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the state of forest resource utilization in China and correctly evaluating the role and function of forest resources in national economic development are essential for realizing balanced development of forests, the environment, and the economy. This is especially true given the present situation of increasingly scarce forest resources. Using data from Chinese forest industry statistical yearbooks, forestry development reports, and other documents, this paper examines the current state of forest resource utilization in China from the angle of combining quantities and values based on input–output tables. We show that demand for and input use of forest resources varies greatly across industrial sectors; the paper products and furniture manufacturing industries have the greatest direct consumption coefficient for timber use. When considering direct and indirect demand, it is clear that forest resources restrict different industrial sectors in diverse ways. These results provide an important set of reference values regarding the utilization of forest resources and coordinated industrial development in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Earth System Model version 3 (NESM v3) has been developed, aiming to provide a numerical modeling platform for cross-disciplinary Earth system studies, project future Earth climate and environment changes, and conduct subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. While the previous model version NESM v1 simulates the internal modes of climate variability well, it has no vegetation dynamics and suffers considerable radiative energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere and surface, resulting in large biases in the global mean surface air temperature, which limits its utility to simulate past and project future climate changes. The NESM v3 has upgraded atmospheric and land surface model components and improved physical parameterization and conservation of coupling variables. Here we describe the new version's basic features and how the major improvements were made. We demonstrate the v3 model's fidelity and suitability to address global climate variability and change issues. The 500-year preindustrial (PI) experiment shows negligible trends in the net heat flux at the top of atmosphere and the Earth surface. Consistently, the simulated global mean surface air temperature, land surface temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST) are all in a quasi-equilibrium state. The conservation of global water is demonstrated by the stable evolution of the global mean precipitation, sea surface salinity (SSS), and sea water salinity. The sea ice extents (SIEs), as a major indication of highlatitude climate, also maintain a balanced state. The simulated spatial patterns of the energy states, SST, precipitation, and SSS fields are realistic, but the model suffers from a cold bias in the North Atlantic, a warm bias in the Southern Ocean, and associated deficient Antarctic sea ice area, as well as a delicate sign of the double ITCZ syndrome. The estimated radiative forcing of quadrupling carbon dioxide is about 7.24Wm-2, yielding a climate sensitivity feedback parameter of -0:98Wm-2 K-1, and the equilibrium climate sensitivity is 3.69 K. The transient climate response from the 1%yr-1 CO2 (1pctCO2) increase experiment is 2.16 K. The model's performance on internal modes and responses to external forcing during the historical period will be documented in an accompanying paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The heat source types in China were not limited to the coal, other types of energy were introduced into the heating energy consumption in recent years, and therefore the specific regional impact of the heating emissions could not be obtained accurately according to the current achievement. Based on this, this study aimed to quantify the impact of the heating emissions on the air quality in an efficient and accurate way. A new method was proposed for investigating the quantitative impact of the heating emissions on the air quality index in this paper and its assumptions and accuracy were verified as well. The data employed in this method is extracted from Ministry of Environmental Protection Data Centre, Qingyue open source and Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory. The key prerequisites of the proposed method were discussed in this study. By calculating, the averaged absolute difference of the meteorological parameters, namely Clo, WD, WS and P, is 3.58%, 2.40%, 3.21% and 3.94%, respectively. The difference ratio of the industrial emissions relative to the total emissions is as low as 4.3%. The optimal principal component number is six for the proposed method, which can satisfy the accuracy requirement with minimum workload. Compared with the results in previous similar studies, the proposed method showed excellent performance in analyzing the regional impact of the heating emissions on ambient air quality in China. Moreover, a total of 64 North cities in China were analyzed based on the proposed method to promote the knowledge on the influence of heating emissions on the environmental quality and the related parameters were provided in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This paper presents an evaluation study of the Regional Climate Model version 4.3 ( RegCM4.3) over the Loess Plateau in northern China, which is a semi-arid region characterized by complex topography. During recent years, a series of reforestation programmes have been implemented across the region that might influence the local climate in complex ways. To better understand the local climate, the RegCM4.3 was applied to simulate the present-day conditions over the Loess Plateau. The simulation was carried out from 1990 to 2009 at the 50-km horizontal resolution, with lateral boundary conditions taken from the ECMWF-Interim reanalysis. A series of climate variables and processes were evaluated during the winter and summer seasons, such as 2-m air temperature, precipitation, wind circulation, surface energy balance, full moisture budget, and cloud radiative forcing (CRF). The possible origins of the simulation bias and the physical linkages with other model processes were examined. In general, RegCM4.3 is able to reproduce both the spatial and temporal features of the regional climate over the Loess Plateau. However, there are still biases in some meteorological variables including precipitation and 2-m air temperature. In particular, the model tends to produce cold biases during winter and underestimate precipitation during summer. Further analyses indicates that the cold biases in winter may have resulted from the deficiency of the downward longwave radiation fluxes, excessive ground heat fluxes, and negative temperature advection by the seasonal mean circulation. These processes are primarily triggered by deficiencies in CRF and excessive northwesterlies over the plateau. The underestimated precipitation during summer is associated with a weak southerly monsoon in the model. A full moisture budget analysis reveals that the dry bias in this region can be mainly attributed to model deficiency in moisture advection and convergence, and to a lesser extent to that in surface evaporation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the intensity, area and duration of future droughts in China are analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The SPI and SPEI are used to evaluate the simulation ability of drought characteristics with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The projected intensity and duration of future drought events are analyzed for the period 2016-2050 under three different respective concentration pathways (RCPs). The simulated and projected drought events are analyzed by applying the intensity-area-duration method. The results show that CCLM has a robust capability to simulate the average drought characteristics, while some regional disparities are not well captured, mainly the simulation of more drought events of shorter duration in Northwest China. For the future period 2016-2050, more intense dryness conditions are projected for China. An increase in evapotranspiration is found all over China, while a reduction in precipitation is apparent in the southern river basins. The increase in evapotranspiration plays an important role in the changes of future droughts over the northern river basins and southern river basins. Under RCP2.6, drought events of longer duration and with higher frequency are projected for the southwest and southeast of China. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, a continuing tendency to more dry conditions is projected along a dryness band stretching from the southwest to the northeast of China. More frequent drought events of longer duration are projected in the southwestern river basins. For all future droughts, larger extents are projected, especially for events with long-term duration. The projected long-term drought events will occur more often and more severe than during the baseline period, and their central locations will likely shift towards Southeast China. The results of this study can be used to initiate and strengthen drought adaptation measures at regional and local scale, especially in the south of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To commemorate 100 years since the birth of Professor Duzheng YE, this paper reviews the contribution of Ye and his research team to the development from climate to global change science in the past 30 or so years, including: (1) the role of climate change in global change; (2) the critical time scales and predictability of global change; (3) the sensitive regions of global change-transitional zones of climate and ecosystems; and (4) orderly human activities and adaptation to global change, with a focus on the development of a proactive strategy for adaptation to such change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, the PM 2.5 pollution in China has occurred frequently and caused widely concern. In order to identify the key factors for PM 2.5 generation, the formation characteristics of PM 2.5 would be revealed. A property of electric neutrality of PM 2.5 was proposed under the least-energy principle and verified through electricity-charge calculation in this paper. It indicated that PM 2.5 is formed by the effect of electromagnetic force, including the effect of ionic bond, hydrogen bond and polarization. According to the analysis of interactive forces among different chemical components, a simulation model is developed for describing the random process of PM 2.5 generation. In addition, an orthogonal test with two levels and four factors has been designed and carried out through the proposed model. From the text analysis, PM 2.5 would be looser and suspend longer in atmosphere due to Organic Compound ( OC ) existing ( OC can reduce about 67% of PM 2.5 density). Considering that N H 4 + is the only cation in the main chemical components of PM 2.5 , it would be vital for anions (such as S O 4 2 − and N O 3 − ) to aggregate together for facilitating PM 2.5 growing. Therefore, in order to relieve PM 2.5 pollution, control strategies for OC and N H 4 + would be enhanced by government through improving the quality of oils and solvent products, decreasing the amount of nitrogenous fertilizer utilization, or changing the fertilizing environment from dry condition to wet condition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to investigate the uncertainty ranges of high flows under climate change in Jinhua River basin, eastern China. Four representative concentration pathways (RCPs), three global climate models (GCMs), 10 downscaling parameter sets and three hydrologic models are applied to simulate future discharges. Changes of annual maximum discharges are assessed for the baseline period (1961-1990) and future period (2011-2040). The uncertainties of annual maximum discharges are calculated for each uncertainty source and compared with different combinations of them. The minimum temperature will probably increase all year round in the future period and maximum temperature would increase in most cases. The changes of precipitation showed different directions by different models and emission scenarios. The annual maximum discharges would decrease for all RCPs. The order of uncertainty ranges of high flows due to different uncertainty sources from high to low is: hydrologic models, GCMs, parameter sets in the downscaling method and emission scenarios. It must be noted that the small uncertainty contribution from different emission scenarios is due to the study period when the differences in increase of radiative forcing and greenhouse gas concentration are less obvious between different RCPs compared to the second half of the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of carbon neutrality provides a new opportunity for the development of renewable energy, especially for wind power. In this paper, 11 regional climate models (RCMs) including CORDEX-EA and PRECIS at two different resolutions are used to evaluate the performance in simulating the spatio-temporal characteristics for wind speed and energy potential from 1981 to 2005. The results show that most models can reproduce the spatio-temporal patterns, and the simulation of the eastern region is better than that of the western region. Besides, most of the higher-resolution models had better simulation performance for spatial-temporal patterns and inter-annual variation. Then, the weighted multi-model ensemble is used to project the changes of the wind speed and the wind power density over China's mainland during the mid-21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario. In future, a decrease in wind speed is projected by most RCMs over China, although some regions, such as the southern parts of China, are projected to have more wind energy potential. The percentage variation of annual mean wind speed will remain in the range of ±4%. The wind power density will decrease in the north and the largest decrease will be found in the northwest. However, the annual mean wind power density in the southeast China will have an increase of 2.21% in the middle of this century. The inter-annual variation of the wind power density in most regions will increase by more than 20%. However, intra-annual variation in the wind power density is likely to decrease in most regions of China, ranging from about −20% to −50%. • A weighted multi-model ensemble was used to project the changes of wind power density over China. • The changes of annual mean wind power density vary in different sub-regions of China, ranging from −3.21% to 2.21%. • The inter-annual variation of the WPD in most regions will increase by more than 20%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluated the potential impact of future climate change on spring maize and single-crop rice in northeastern China (NEC) by employing climate and crop models. Based on historical data, diurnal temperature change exhibited a distinct negative relationship with maize yield, whereas minimum temperature correlated positively to rice yield. Corresponding to the evaluated climate change derived from coupled climate models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario (RCP4.5), the projected maize yield changes for three future periods [2010-39 (period 1), 2040-69 (period 2), and 2070-99 (period 3)] relative to the mean yield in the baseline period (1976-2005) were 2.92%, 3.11% and 2.63%, respectively. By contrast, the evaluated rice yields showed slightly larger increases of 7.19%, 12.39%, and 14.83%, respectively. The uncertainties in the crop response are discussed by considering the uncertainties obtained from both the climate and the crop models. The range of impact of the uncertainty became markedly wider when integrating these two sources of uncertainty. The probabilistic assessments of the evaluated change showed maize yield to be relatively stable from period 1 to period 3, while the rice yield showed an increasing trend over time. The results presented in this paper suggest a tendency of the yields of maize and rice in NEC to increase (but with great uncertainty) against the background of global warming, which may offer some valuable guidance to government policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a review of paleoclimate modeling activities in China. Rather than attempt to cover all topics, we have chosen a few climatic intervals and events judged to be particularly informative to the international community. In historical climate simulations, changes in solar radiation and volcanic activity explain most parts of reconstructions over the last millennium prior to the industrial era, while atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations play the most important role in the 20th century warming over China. There is a considerable model-data mismatch in the annual and boreal winter temperature change over China during the mid-Holocene [6000 years before present (ka BP)], while coupled models with an interactive ocean generally perform better than atmospheric models. For the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka BP), climate models successfully reproduce the surface cooling trend over China but fail to reproduce its magnitude, with a better performance for coupled models. At that time, reconstructed vegetation and western Pacific sea surface temperatures could have significantly affected the East Asian climate, and environmental conditions on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau were most likely very different to the present day. During the late Marine Isotope Stage 3 (30-40 ka BP), orbital forcing and Northern Hemisphere glaciation, as well as vegetation change in China, were likely responsible for East Asian climate change. On the tectonic scale, the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau uplift, the Tethys Sea retreat, and the South China Sea expansion played important roles in the formation of the East Asian monsoon-dominant environment pattern during the late Cenozoic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses the cloud resolving Active Tracer High-resolution Atmospheric Model coupled to the interactive surface model Hybrid in order to investigate the diurnal development of a lake-breeze system at the Nam Co Lake on the Tibetan Plateau. Simulations with several background wind speeds are conducted, and the interaction of the lake breeze with topography and background wind in triggering moist and deep convection is studied. The model is able to adequately simulate the systems most important dynamical features such as turbulent surface fluxes and the development of a lake breeze for the different wind conditions. We identify two different mechanisms for convection triggering that are dependent on the direction of the background wind: triggering over topography, when the background wind and the lake breeze have the same flow direction, and triggering due to convergence between the lake-breeze front and the background wind. Our research also suggests that precipitation measurements at the centre of the basins on the Tibetan Plateau are not representative for the basin as a whole as precipitation is expected to occur mainly in the vicinity of the topography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Due to the altitudinal extent of an auroral arc, its observed width is different at different zenith angles even when its real width is the same. For that reason, former measurements of arc widths were obtained only for arcs located close to the geomagnetic zenith direction. A method to correct arc width is proposed in the paper, which considers the altitudinal extent of auroral arc. Then, we apply this method to the auroral arcs observed at the Chinese Yellow River Station, and analyze the widths of 17,571 dayside auroral arcs. The distributions of the widths are almost the same at different zenith angles with an average width of 18.5km. Arc widths are narrower as MLT is close to midday. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper explored the projected changes in precipitation, maximum temperature (T max), and minimum temperature (T min) over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) based on 23 Global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) approach was firstly applied to correct the biases in the GCMs. Next, the future changes were investigated by analyzing the multi-model ensemble (MME) of the bias-corrected dataset during 2025–2044 (near-term), 2045–2064 (mid-term), and 2081–2100 (long-term) periods, with reference to the baseline period 1995–2014, under three integrated scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results show that: (1) the biases in CMIP6 GCMs can be effectively corrected by EQM, and the MME performs better than individual models for each climatic variable. (2) Precipitation over the YRB from 2025 to 2100 is projected to increase at the rate of 9.66 mm/decade, 13.45 mm/decade, and 21.01 mm/decade under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5, respectively. In the long-term, the annual precipitation is projected to increase by 10.41%, 10.66% and 15.80%, under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, respectively. (3) T max (T min) over the YRB is projected to increase by 0.09 (0.07) °C/decade, 0.29 (0.27) °C/decade, and 0.66 (0.64) °C/decade under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5, respectively. In the long-term, T max (T min) averaged over the YRB is projected to increase by 1.75 (1.50) °C, 2.72 (2.54) °C and 5.04 (4.85) °C under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, respectively. (4) Uncertainties in the projected precipitation and temperature over the YRB were reduced based on MME. But further researches, such as selecting the superior models with respect to the regional climate of the YRB from the CMIP6 and using the ensemble methods that assign weight based on the performance of each model, are still needed to provide more reliable climate projections. • Projected changes were explored by 23 CMIP6 GCMs under the three SSP-RCP scenarios. • Biases in the GCMs were corrected by Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) method. • Multi-model ensemble (MME) was used to reduce the uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The western Tianshan Mountains region in China has a complex topography where basins, mountains and glaciers co-exist. It is of great significance to study the sensitivity of meteorological factors in this region to different parameterization schemes of climate models. In this paper, the regional climate model RegCM4.5 is used to simulate the meteorological factor (mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation and wind speed) occurring in the western Tianshan Mountains region from 2012 to 2016, so as to investigate the effects of different cumulus convective schemes (Grell, Tiedtke and Emanuel), including land cumulus convective schemes (LCCs) and ocean convective schemes (OCCs) on annual and seasonal simulations of meteorological factor by using the schemes of RUN1 (Grell for LCC and Tiedtke for OCC), RUN2 (Tiedtke for LCC and Emanuel for OCC), RUN3 (Grell for LCC and Emanuel for OCC) and ENS (the ensemble of RUN1, RUN2 and RUN3). The results show that the simulations of annual and seasonal meteorological factors are not significantly sensitive to the combination of LCCs and OCCs. In the annual simulations, RUN2 scheme has the best simulation performance for the maximum, average and minimum temperatures. However, other schemes of precipitation simulation outperform RUN2 scheme, and there is no difference among the four schemes for wind speed simulation. In the seasonal simulations, RUN2 scheme still performs well in the simulation of the average, maximum and minimum temperatures for four seasons, except for the simulation of the average temperature in spring and summer. For the simulation of the maximum temperature in summer, RUN2 scheme performs the same as ENS. For the simulation of other seasons, different meteorological factors have different performances in four seasons. Overall, the results show that different combinations of cumulus convection schemes can improve the simulation performance of meteorological factors in the western Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation and land-surface hydrology are intrinsically linked under long-term climate change. This paper aims to evaluate the dynamics of potential natural vegetation arising from 21st century climate change and its possible impact on the water budget of the Hanjiang River basin in China. Based on predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) A1 scenario from the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) regional climate model, changes in plant functional types (PFTs) and leaf area index (LAI) were simulated via the Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model. Subsequently, predicted PFTs and LAIs were employed in the Xinanjiang vegetation-hydrology model for rainfall-runoff simulations. Results reveal that future long-term changes in precipitation, air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration would remarkably affect the spatiotemporal distribution of PFTS and LAIS. These climate-driven vegetation changes would further influence regional water balance. With the decrease in forest cover in the 21st century, plant transpiration and evaporative loss of intercepted canopy water will tend to fall while soil evaporation may rise considerably. As a result, total evapotranspiration may increase moderately with a slight increase in annual runoff depth. This indicates that, for long-term hydrological prediction, climate-induced changes in terrestrial vegetation cannot be neglected as the terrestrial biosphere plays an important role in land-surface hydrological responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the characteristics of urban heat island (UHI) and boundary layer structures in the Beijing area, China, are analyzed using conventional and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) is used to simulate these urban weather features for comparison with observations. WRF is also used to test the sensitivity of model simulations to different urban land use scenarios and urban building structures to investigate the impacts of urbanization on surface weather and boundary layer structures. Results show that the coupled WRF/Noah/UCM modeling system seems to be able to reproduce the following observed features reasonably well: 1) the diurnal variation of UHI intensity; 2) the spatial distribution of UHI in Beijing; 3) the diurnal variation of wind speed and direction, and interactions between mountain–valley circulations and UHI; 4) small-scale boundary layer convective rolls and cells; and 5) the nocturnal boundary layer lower-level jet. The statistical analyses reveal that urban canopy variables (e.g., temperature, wind speed) from WRF/Noah/UCM compare better with surface observations than the conventional variables (e.g., 2-m temperature, 10-m wind speed). Both observations and the model show that the airflow over Beijing is dominated by mountain–valley flows that are modified by urban–rural circulations. Sensitivity tests imply that the presence or absence of urban surfaces significantly impacts the formation of horizontal convective rolls (HCRs), and the details in urban structures seem to have less pronounced but not negligible effects on HCRs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Linking sinuosity, a fairly recently developed metric, with high temperature extremes (HTEs) can be both useful and insightful to better understand the physical mechanisms behind HTEs. However, it is not clear whether there exists a relationship between the sinuosity changes and HTE changes in present and future climate conditions over southeastern China. In this paper, the anomalous characteristics of the atmospheric circulation are quantified by sinuosity. Three sinuosity metrics are used in this study: individual sinuosity (SIN), aggregate sinuosity (ASIN), and comprehensive sinuosity (CSIN). Furthermore, we examine the relationship between sinuosity changes and HTE changes in present and future climate conditions. ASIN is strongly correlated with surface air temperature (SAT). We find that the influence of individual sinuosity (SIN) at different latitudes on the SAT of southeastern China is different. The SIN of low (middle) latitude isohypses has significant positive (negative) correlations with the SAT of southeastern China. The SIN of high-latitude isohypses is rather limited and can therefore be ignored. The projected relationship between the sinuosity changes and HTE changes in the late 21st century suggests similar results. The change in SAT is related to the changes in climate variables over southeastern China in the future, and these changes increase with the increase in Z500 or V850 and the decrease in U500. Moreover, the frequencies of large (small) comprehensive sinuosity (CSIN) values at low (mid) latitudes will increase. At the end of the 21st century, Z500 isohypses at different latitudes will have an obvious poleward shift. Our results indicate that measuring the aggregate waviness of the midtropospheric flow (via sinuosity) can provide insight regarding HTEs, and the climate model output can be used to examine the future likelihood of increased HTE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) is a key input parameter for almost all terrestrial ecosystem models, but the spatial resolution of current PAR products is too coarse to satisfy regional application requirements. In this paper, we present an operational system for PAR retrieval from MODIS data that is based on an idea proposed by [Liang, S., Zheng, T., Liu, R., Fang, H., Tsay, S. -C., & Running, S. (2006). Estimation of incident photosynthetically active radiation from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer data. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D15208. doi:10.1029/2005JD006730]. However, the operational system for PAR retrieval described here contains several improvements. The algorithm utilizes MODIS 1B data combining MODIS land surface products and BRDF model parameters products to directly estimate diffuse PAR, direct PAR and total PAR. Times-series data interpolation removes the noise and cloud contamination of land surface reflectance. PAR is retrieved by searching look-up tables calculated using a radiative transfer model. The system can automatically process MODIS 1B data to generate instantaneous and daily PAR. The instantaneous PAR products are compared with observational data from seven ChinaFLUX stations, and daily total PAR estimates are compared with those estimates of global radiation from 98 meteorological stations over China. The results indicate that this approach can produce reasonable PAR estimates, although this method overestimates PAR for low values of PAR. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, field measurements were performed to determine SO2 concentration gradients from a highway in Shanghai using passive samplers. It was demonstrated that passive sampling method is a cost-effective and convenient way to monitor specific gaseous pollutants at small scales over long sampling periods in air quality studies. Using function fit analysis for the measured results, a shifted power–law relationship had been found between SO2 concentration and the distance from a highway. Accordingly, an empirical shifted power–law model was developed for describing and predicting the SO2 gradients near a highway, in which k is the only parameter and named as diffusion attenuation coefficient. There was a surprisingly significant negative correlation between known SO2 concentration at reference point (C 0) and diffusion attenuation coefficient (k). By the correlation equation of C 0 and k, appropriate value of k could be calculated with measured C 0. Therefore, the empirical shifted power–law model developed in this study could be practically and conveniently applied for predicting the SO2 distributions near a highway with known C 0. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper, an integrated MM5–CMAQ modeling approach was employed to investigate the PM10 air pollution issue in Beijing, China, with a focus on assessing pollution contributions from surrounding provinces. A 2-level-nested grid domain with spatial resolutions of 36 and 12km was designed for the study region. Seven monitoring stations across Beijing municipality were selected to provide hourly PM10 measurement data. The months of January, April, July and October in 2002 were taken as target periods for model performance evaluation. Five emission scenarios were designed and run in order to quantitatively assess the trans-boundary PM10 contributions. The results show that, while Beijing needs to take positive steps to reduce its own pollution emissions, much effort should also be placed on demanding more pollution reduction and better environmental performance from surrounding provinces. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper examines variations of the surface air temperature (SAT) over China and the globe in the twentieth century simulated by 19 coupled climate models driven by historical natural and anthropogenic forcings. Most models perform well in simulating both the global and the Northern Hemispheric mean SAT evolutions of the twentieth century. The inclusion of natural forcings improves the simulation, in particular for the first half of the century. The reproducibility of the SAT averaged over China is lower than that of the global and hemispheric averages, but it is still acceptable. The contribution of natural forcings to the SAT over China in the first half of the century is not as robust as that to the global and hemispheric averages. No model could successfully produce the reconstructed warming over China in the 1920s. The prescribed natural and anthropogenic forcings in the coupled climate models mainly produce the warming trends and the decadal- to interdecadal-scale SAT variations with poor performances at shorter time scales. The prominent warming trend in the last half of the century over China and its acceleration in recent decades are weakly simulated. There are discrepancies between the simulated and observed regional features of the SAT trend over China. Few models could produce the summertime cooling over the middle part of eastern China (27°–36°N), while two models acceptably produce the meridional gradients of the wintertime warming trends, with north China experiencing larger warming. Limitations of the current state-of-the-art coupled climate models in simulating spatial patterns of the twentieth-century SAT over China cast a shadow upon their capability toward projecting credible geographical distributions of future climate change through Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, future drought characteristics (frequency, duration and intensity) over China are analysed by using four climate models from CMIP6 under the seven SSP-RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, SSP370, and SSP585) for three defined periods of 2021–2040 (near-term), 2041–2060 (mid-term) and 2081–2100 (long-term). The corresponding four climate models output from CMIP5 are also used to conduct a comparison analysis between CMIP5 and CMIP6 to address the improvements added to CMIP6 in terms of drought identification. The drought characteristics are identified by applying the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at a 12-month timescale and run theory. The results show that CMIP6 has a robust capability to capture historical (1986–2005) drought characteristics. For the future period of 2021–2040, the decrease in precipitation and increase in potential evapotranspiration will lead to continuous dry conditions in the upper and middle Yangtze River basin and eastern Pearl River basin. Relative to the reference period, drought events will be more frequent and severe with longer durations in the Northwest River basins and middle Yangtze River basin. Furthermore, higher emissions signify a greater increase in drought frequency and intensity in the long-term period. Except for the SSP585 scenario, the lower emission scenario corresponds to the higher drought duration soon and in the mid-21st century (2021–2060). This finding is regarded as a "strange phenomenon", which cannot be detected by the previous CMIP5-based emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and the unlikely pathway RCP8.5). Therefore, additional "possible future"-based scenarios (SSP119, SSP126, SSP434, SSP245, SSP460, and SSP370) should be included in extreme climate studies, especially for the near future and mid-21st century. Notably, compared with CMIP5, the reduced biases in drought characteristics are more likely associated with improvements in the representation of physical processes in climate models from CMIP6. The results of this study could provide a basis for the development of drought adaptation measures over China. • Latest CMIP6 climate models and seven SSP-RCP scenarios are used to analyze the possible changes in droughts over China. • More robust projections will be presented by CMIP6 than CMIP5, due to the better representations in physical processes. • The higher emission signifies shorter drought duration, lower precipitation and PET in mid-21st century over China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Grey relational analysis is used to calculate the similarity of meteorology. • The GMCN(1,N) can provide more reliable forecast of the PM 2.5 and PM 10 daily concentrations. • The predicted results can be as an important guide for air control. PM 10 and PM 2.5 (particulate matter with particle size is not greater than 10 and 2.5 µm respectively) are major components of environmental pollution, which can seriously affect people's health. Therefore, the prevention of these pollutants is very necessary. In this paper, the daily concentrations of PM 10 and PM 2.5 are predicted by considering the meteorological conditions. Firstly, the similarity of meteorological conditions is calculated by grey relation analysis. Then, based on the similarity, grey multivariable convolution model with new information priority accumulation (GMCN(1, N)), grey multiple linear regression (GM(0, N)) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models are established to forecast the daily concentrations of PM 2.5 and PM 10 in Shijiazhuang. The results show that the GMCN(1, N) model is the best among three models and can provide reliable prediction results and important guide to air control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is experiencing serious atmospheric pollution, which also exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity. The Chinese government has implemented targeted pollution control measures at the city level, emphasizing coordination among cities to prevent and control air pollution in key regions such as Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration. This study combined an inter-city multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model with an air quality dispersion model consisting of a weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and the CALPUFF model (WRF/CALPUFF) to study the inter-city economic consumption, pollutant emission and concentration among 13 cities in BTH urban agglomeration. NO x is chosen as an example. The combined effects of economic linkage and atmospheric transport show that NO x concentrations in cities in the BTH urban agglomeration are attributable to three consumption sources: a local contribution from the target city's own local economic consumption (average, 25%), and non-local consumption contributions, including other cities in the BTH urban agglomeration (average, 36%) and regions outside of BTH (average, 39%). Compared with the contributions to NO x concentrations calculated using only the MRIO model or atmospheric transport stimulation model, the results of this paper quantify that the consumption outside of a city could provide a greater impact on the city's air quality due to the combined effects of economic linkage and atmospheric transport. To avoid negative impacts of emission reduction targets on economic consumption, governmental regional pollution control policies should consider the combined effects of economic linkage and atmospheric transport. • The inter-city MRIO model is combined with the air quality simulation model. • The non-local consumption could drove a greater impact on a city's air quality in BTH region. • Provide a useful guidance to the inter-city air pollution control policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, near-surface ozone (O 3) concentrations have been increasing, which aggravates O 3 pollution. Due to the environmental threat it poses to human health, O 3 pollution has become a hot topic among researchers. In this paper, we used a generalized additive model (GAM) to evaluate the complex nonlinear relationships between O 3 concentration and the factors influencing O 3 concentration from 2013 to 2017 in Lanzhou in Western China. We considered factors such as long-term trend, seasonality at a quarterly interval, and the weekend effect. The results showed that O 3 concentration in Lanzhou was affected by many factors, and these influencing factors were correlated with each other. In the single-factor model, the adjusted coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.594, and the total deviance explained of O 3 concentration was 62.3%. We detected significantly nonlinear relationships between O 3 concentration and the influencing factors like air temperature, sunshine hours, wind speed, relative humidity, and the concentrations of NO 2 and PM 2.5. In particular, air temperature was the main driving factor for O 3 concentration, which explained 24.2% of the variance (F = 350.84). In addition, we built a double-factor model to investigate the interactive influences of these influencing factors on O 3 concentration variation. In the fitted double-factor model, R2 was 0.636 and the total deviance explained was 68.1%, both of which were higher (i.e., better performance) than that in the single-factor model. Among these studied influencing factors, the interaction between air temperature and air pollutants showed the greatest influence on O 3 concentration variation. The results of this study can be used to assist local environmental authorities to take proactive measures for O 3 pollution control in Lanzhou, Gansu. • The ozone concentration in Lanzhou is significantly correlated with meteorological elements and other pollutants. • Temperature is the main driving factor for the change of ozone concentration in Lanzhou. • The interaction between temperature and other influencing factors has a significant impact on ozone concentration. • The generalized additive model (GAM) with interaction term can explain the change of ozone concentration more reasonably. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme precipitation has often occurred in Southeastern China, while the possible mechanism is not clear. In order to bridge the scale gap between large-scale circulation and extreme precipitation, in this paper, the k-means clustering technique—a common method of weather-type (WT) analysis—was applied to regional 850-hPa wind fields. The reasonable determination of k values can make the later WT analyses more reliable. Thus, the Davies–Bouldin (BD) criterion index is used in the clustering process, and the optimal value of the k was determined. Then, we obtain and analyze the frequency, persistence, and progression of WTs. The rule of transitions from one WT to another may help explain some of the physical processes in winter. We found a special evolutionary chain (WT3→WT1→WT2→WT5→WT3) that can be used to explain the cold wave weather process in winter. Different WTs in the evolutionary chain correspond well to different stages of the cold wave weather process (gestation (WT3), outbreak (WT1), eastward withdrawal (WT2), and extinction (WT5)). In addition, we found that there are obvious differences in precipitation between December and February. After reassembling five kinds of WTs, two modes are formed: dry WTs and wet WTs. Our research shows that the intraseasonal variation of precipitation can be attributed to the fluctuation between the wet and dry WTs, and the different phases of teleconnection can correspond well with it. For example, the relative frequencies of wet WTs are higher in February. These WTs correspond to the positive phase of the WP and ENSO, the negative phase of the EA and EU, and the strong MJO state of the second, third, and eighth phase. Our work has well established the relationship between synoptic scale and large-scale circulation, which provides a reference for climate model simulation and future climate prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]