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Twenty‐first‐century climate change projections are uncertain, especially on regional scales. An important source of uncertainty is that climate models exhibit biases, which limits their ability to predict climate. One of the largest biases is the too warm sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern tropical Atlantic (TA), reflecting deficient atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Here, we show that CO2‐forced TA‐sector climate changes simulated by state‐of‐the‐art climate models exhibit a strong mean‐state dependence. In particular, models simulating largest SST warming in the eastern TA, consistent with the warming observed since the mid‐20th century, typically exhibit a more realistic mean state than models simulating largest warming in the western TA. The former models exhibit a larger climate sensitivity, and predict stronger and in part qualitatively different climate changes over the TA sector, for example in precipitation. These findings may help to reducing uncertainty in TA‐climate change projections. Plain Language Summary: Twenty‐first‐century climate change projections are uncertain, especially on regional scales. An important source of uncertainty is that climate models exhibit biases, which limits their ability to predict climate. One of the largest biases is the too warm sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical Atlantic (TA), reflecting deficient atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Here, we show that CO2‐forced TA‐sector climate changes simulated by state‐of‐the‐art climate models exhibit a strong relationship to the quality of simulating the mean state. These findings may help to reducing uncertainty in climate change projections over the TA sector. Key Points: Climate projections for the tropical Atlantic sector depend on the quality of simulating present‐day conditionsLess biased climate models provide more reliable projectionsSpread in CO2‐forced climate changes over the Tropical Atlantic region [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are increasingly used to add small-scale processes at higher grid resolution that are not represented by their Lateral Boundary Conditions (LBCs). Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model, RCA4, has downscaled three Global Climate Models (GCMs), namely, CNRM-CM5, EC-EARTH and GFDL-ESM2M in the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) framework for Middle East North Africa (MENA) and South Asia (SA) domains. Arabian Peninsula is covered in both MENA and SA simulations, which gives a unique opportunity to study the effects of CORDEX domain and LBCs on the simulation of temperature and precipitation by RCM. It is examined by calculating the differences between MENA and SA simulations for different driving GCMs in the historical (1976–2005) and future (2071–2100) periods under RCP8.5 emission scenario, for both summer (dry) and winter (wet) seasons. RCA4 performs generally well when simulating the observed temperature and precipitation patterns, with some local wet biases over Asir Mountains and cold bias over the north eastern parts of Saudi Arabia. The simulations of temperature seem to be very sensitive to the simulation domain (i.e., MENA and SA) and less sensitive to different LBCs, whereas in case of precipitation LBCs seems to play a dominant role. The MENA simulations generally project about 2 °C warmer and drier climate compared to SA simulations by the end of this century, which is comparable to the differences arising due to different LBCs and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a controversy about the origin of the recent decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slowing observed at 26.5°N and concurrent sea surface temperature cooling in the central and eastern mid-latitude North Atlantic. We investigate decadal AMOC slowing events simulated in a multi-millennial preindustrial control integration of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), providing an estimate of internal AMOC variability. Preindustrial control integrations of 15 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 also are investigated, as well as historical simulations with them providing estimates of AMOC variability during 1856–2005. It is shown that the recent decadal AMOC decline is still within the range of the models' internal AMOC variability and thus could be of natural origin. In this case, the decline would represent an extreme realization of internal variability provided the climate models yield realistic levels of AMOC variability. The model results suggest that internal decadal AMOC variability is large, requiring multi-decadal observational records to detect an anthropogenic AMOC signal with high confidence. When analyzing the strongest decadal AMOC slowing events in the KCM, which have amplitudes similar to or larger than the recently observed decadal AMOC decline, the following composite picture emerges: a very strong decadal AMOC decline is preceded by a decadal rise in atmospheric surface pressure over large parts of the mid-latitude North Atlantic. The change in low-level atmospheric circulation drives reduced oceanic heat loss over and diminished upper-ocean salt content in the Labrador Sea. In response, oceanic deep convection and subsequently the AMOC and northward oceanic heat transport weaken, and anomalously cold sea surface temperatures develop in the central and eastern mid-latitude North Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A long-standing difficulty of climate models is to capture the annual cycle (AC) of eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) sea surface temperature (SST). In this study, we first examine the EEP SST AC in a set of integrations of the coupled Kiel Climate Model, in which only atmosphere model resolution differs. When employing coarse horizontal and vertical atmospheric resolution, significant biases in the EEP SST AC are observed. These are reflected in an erroneous timing of the cold tongue's onset and termination as well as in an underestimation of the boreal spring warming amplitude. A large portion of these biases are linked to a wrong simulation of zonal surface winds, which can be traced back to precipitation biases on both sides of the equator and an erroneous low-level atmospheric circulation over land. Part of the SST biases also is related to shortwave radiation biases related to cloud cover biases. Both wind and cloud cover biases are inherent to the atmospheric component, as shown by companion uncoupled atmosphere model integrations forced by observed SSTs. Enhancing atmosphere model resolution, horizontal and vertical, markedly reduces zonal wind and cloud cover biases in coupled as well as uncoupled mode and generally improves simulation of the EEP SST AC. Enhanced atmospheric resolution reduces convection biases and improves simulation of surface winds over land. Analysis of a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) reveals that in these models, very similar mechanisms are at work in driving EEP SST AC biases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A long-standing problem in climate models is the large sea surface salinity (SSS) biases in the North Atlantic. In this study, we describe the influences of correcting these SSS biases on the circulation of the North Atlantic as well as on North Atlantic sector mean climate and decadal to multidecadal variability. We performed integrations of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) with and without applying a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic. The quality of simulating the mean circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean, North Atlantic sector mean climate and decadal variability is greatly enhanced in the freshwater flux-corrected integration which, by definition, depicts relatively small North Atlantic SSS biases. In particular, a large reduction in the North Atlantic cold sea surface temperature bias is observed and a more realistic Atlantic Multidecadal Variability simulated. Improvements relative to the non-flux corrected integration also comprise a more realistic representation of deep convection sites, sea ice, gyre circulation and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The results suggest that simulations of North Atlantic sector mean climate and decadal variability could strongly benefit from alleviating sea surface salinity biases in the North Atlantic, which may enhance the skill of decadal predictions in that region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to idealized external (solar) forcing is studied in terms of the internal (unforced) AMOC modes with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice general circulation model. The statistical investigation of KCM's internal AMOC variability obtained from a multi-millennial control run yields three distinct modes: a multi-decadal mode with a period of about 60 years, a quasi-centennial mode with a period of about 100 years and a multi-centennial mode with a period of about 300-400 years. Most variance is explained by the multi-centennial mode, and the least by the quasi-centennial mode. The solar constant varies sinusoidally with two different periods (100 and 60 years) in forced runs with KCM. The AMOC response to the external forcing is rather complex and nonlinear. It involves strong changes in the frequency structure of the variability. While the control run depicts multi-timescale behavior, the AMOC variability in the experiment with 100 year forcing period is channeled into a relatively narrow band centered near the forcing period. It is the quasi-centennial AMOC mode with a period of just under 100 years which is excited, although it is heavily damped in the control run. Thus, the quasi-centennial mode retains its period which does not correspond exactly to the forcing period. Surprisingly, the quasi-centennial mode is also most strongly excited when the forcing period is set to 60 years, the period of the multi-decadal mode which is rather prominent in the control run. It is largely the spatial structure of the forcing rather than its period that determines which of the three internal AMOC modes is excited. The results suggest that we need to understand the full modal structure of the internal AMOC variability in order to understand the circulation's response to external forcing. This could be a challenge for climate models: we cannot necessarily expect that the response to external forcing is realistically captured by a model, even if only strongly damped modes are not well represented that do not account for much variance under present-day conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical experiments with the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model have been performed in order to simulate the influence of changes in the ocean surface temperature (OST) and sea ice concentration (SIC) on climate characteristics in regions of Eurasia. The sensitivity of winter and summer climates to OST and SIC variations in 1998-2006 has been investigated and compared to those in 1968-1976. These two intervals correspond to the maximum and minimum of the Atlantic Long-Period Oscillation (ALO) index. Apart from the experiments on changes in the OST and SIC global fields, the experiments on OST anomalies only in the North Atlantic and SIC anomalies in the Arctic for the specified periods have been analyzed. It is established that temperature variations in Western Europe are explained by OST and SIC variations fairly well, whereas the warmings in Eastern Europe and Western Siberia, according to model experiments, are substantially (by a factor of 2-3) smaller than according to observational data. Winter changes in the temperature regime in continental regions are controlled mainly by atmospheric circulation anomalies. The model, on the whole, reproduces the empirical structure of changes in the winter field of surface pressure, in particular, the pressure decrease in the Caspian region; however, it substantially (approximately by three times) underestimates the range of changes. Summer temperature variations in the model are characterized by a higher statistical significance than winter ones. The analysis of the sensitivity of the climate in Western Europe to SIC variations alone in the Arctic is an important result of the experiments performed. It is established that the SIC decrease and a strong warming over the Barents Sea in the winter period leads to a cooling over vast regions of the northern part of Eurasia and increases the probability of anomalously cold January months by two times and more (for regions in Western Siberia). This effect is caused by the formation of the increased-pressure region with a center over the southern boundary of the Barents Sea during the SIC decrease and an anomalous advection of cold air masses from the northeast. This result indicates that, to estimate the ALO actions (as well as other long-scale climatic variability modes) on the climate of Eurasia, it is basically important to take into account (or correctly reproduce) Arctic sea ice changes in experiments with climatic models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influences of North Atlantic biases on multiyear predictability of unforced surface air temperature (SAT) variability are examined in the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). By employing a freshwater flux correction over the North Atlantic to the model, which strongly alleviates both North Atlantic sea surface salinity (SSS) and sea surface temperature (SST) biases, the freshwater flux-corrected integration depicts significantly enhanced multiyear SAT predictability in the North Atlantic sector in comparison to the uncorrected one. The enhanced SAT predictability in the corrected integration is due to a stronger and more variable Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its enhanced influence on North Atlantic SST. Results obtained from preindustrial control integrations of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) support the findings obtained from the KCM: models with large North Atlantic biases tend to have a weak AMOC influence on SAT and exhibit a smaller SAT predictability over the North Atlantic sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]