Search

In this study, we provide an update of the methodology and data used by Deng et al. (2022) to compare the national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) and atmospheric inversion model ensembles contributed by international research teams coordinated by the Global Carbon Project. The comparison framework uses transparent processing of the net ecosystem exchange fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) from inversions to provide estimates of terrestrial carbon stock changes over managed land that can be used to evaluate NGHGIs. For methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), we separate anthropogenic emissions from natural sources based directly on the inversion results, to make them compatible with NGHGIs. Our global harmonized NGHGIs database was updated with inventory data until February 2023 by compiling data from periodical UNFCCC inventories by Annex I countries and sporadic and less detailed emissions reports by non-Annex I countries given by National Communications and Biennial Update Reports. For the inversion data, we used an ensemble of 22 global inversions produced for the most recent assessments of the global budgets of CO2, CH4 and N2O coordinated by the Global Carbon Project with ancillary data. The CO2 inversion ensemble in this study goes through 2021, building on our previous report from 1990 to 2019, and includes three new satellite inversions compared to the previous study, and an improved managed land mask. As a result, although significant differences exist between the CO2 inversion estimates, both satellite and in-situ inversions over managed lands indicate that Russia and Canada had a larger land carbon sink in recent years than reported in their NGHGIs, while the NGHGIs reported a significant upward trend of carbon sink in Russia but a downward trend in Canada. For CH4 and N2O, the results of the new inversion ensembles are extended to 2020. Rapid increases in anthropogenic CH4 emissions were observed in developing countries, with varying levels of agreement between NGHGIs and inversion results, while developed countries showed a slow declining or stable trend in emissions. Much denser sampling and higher atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations by different satellites, are expected in the coming years. The methodology proposed here to compare inversion results with NGHGIs can be applied regularly for monitoring the effectiveness of mitigation policy and progress by countries to meet the objective of their pledges. The dataset constructed for this study is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10841716 (Deng et al., 2024). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic is a critical region in terms of global warming. Environmental changes are already progressing steadily in high northern latitudes, whereby, among other effects, a high potential for enhanced methane (CH 4) emissions is induced. With CH 4 being a potent greenhouse gas, additional emissions from Arctic regions may intensify global warming in the future through positive feedback. Various natural and anthropogenic sources are currently contributing to the Arctic's CH 4 budget; however, the quantification of those emissions remains challenging. Assessing the amount of CH 4 emissions in the Arctic and their contribution to the global budget still remains challenging. On the one hand, this is due to the difficulties in carrying out accurate measurements in such remote areas. Besides, large variations in the spatial distribution of methane sources and a poor understanding of the effects of ongoing changes in carbon decomposition, vegetation and hydrology also complicate the assessment. Therefore, the aim of this work is to reduce uncertainties in current bottom-up estimates of CH 4 emissions as well as soil oxidation by implementing an inverse modelling approach in order to better quantify CH 4 sources and sinks for the most recent years (2008 to 2019). More precisely, the objective is to detect occurring trends in the CH 4 emissions and potential changes in seasonal emission patterns. The implementation of the inversion included footprint simulations obtained with the atmospheric transport model FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model), various emission estimates from inventories and land surface models, and data on atmospheric CH 4 concentrations from 41 surface observation sites in the Arctic nations. The results of the inversion showed that the majority of the CH 4 sources currently present in high northern latitudes are poorly constrained by the existing observation network. Therefore, conclusions on trends and changes in the seasonal cycle could not be obtained for the corresponding CH 4 sectors. Only CH 4 fluxes from wetlands are adequately constrained, predominantly in North America. Within the period under study, wetland emissions show a slight negative trend in North America and a slight positive trend in East Eurasia. Overall, the estimated CH 4 emissions are lower compared to the bottom-up estimates but higher than similar results from global inversions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]