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We test the application of a rare event simulation (RES) algorithm to accelerate the sampling of extreme winter rainfall over Europe in a climate model. The genealogical particle analysis algorithm, an ensemble method that interrupts the simulation at intermediate times to clone realizations in which an extreme event is developing, is applied to the intermediate complexity general circulation model PlaSim. We show that the algorithm strongly reduces the numerical effort required to estimate probabilities of extremes, demonstrating the potential of RES of seasonal precipitation extremes. Plain Language Summary: Rare events, such as winters with a lot of rainfall, can have a high impact. High rainfall can cause floods, risking lives, and damaging property. To plan for such events, we want to know what the probability is to experience a lot of rainfall in any given year. One way to make an estimate is to run climate models and look at the proportion of winters having rainfall above a high threshold. This method can be very costly and time‐consuming, as climate models require powerful computers and we need to run them for a long time until we see a few winters with very high rainfall. In this article, we apply algorithms to speed up such model simulations. Instead of keeping the model running for a long time, we run a large number of copies at the same time. At regular intervals, we check which simulations are producing a lot of rain. These we copy, while others are terminated. Even though we have made high rainfall more likely than it should be, we can still estimate what the correct probabilities of high rainfall are. We show that this method saves time running our computer model, while still giving accurate results. Key Points: A rare event simulation algorithm is applied to a climate model, generating a large ensemble of realizations with high winter rainfall over EuropeThe algorithm generates the ensemble at a significantly lower numerical effort compared to conventional brute‐force simulationThe ensemble allows to estimate probabilities of high threshold exceedances more accurately [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Post-Tropical Cyclones (PTCs) can cause extensive damage across Europe through extreme winds and heavy precipitation. With increasing sea surface temperatures, tropical cyclones (TC) may form and travel further polewards and eastwards than observed historically. Recent work has suggested that the frequency of intense Europe-impacting PTCs may increase substantially in the future. Using an objective feature tracking scheme and TC identification method, we track and identify the full lifecycle of TCs in the North Atlantic in five CMIP6 climate models in the historical (1984–2014) period and in the future under the SSP5-85 scenario (2069–2099). These five models are selected based on their ability to simulate similar TC frequency similar to observed in the North Atlantic, although model deficiencies remain. We find no robust changes in Europe-impacting PTC frequency or intensity in the future. This is because two competing factors – a significant decrease in TC frequency of 30–60 %, and an increase in the proportion of TCs reaching Europe – are approximately the same size. The projected increase in the proportion of TCs reaching Europe is largely driven by an increase in the likelihood of recurvature and is consistent with projected decreases in vertical wind shear and increases in potential intensity along the US East Coast in the future. The projected increased likelihood of recurvature is also associated with a shift in TC genesis away from the main development region, where model biases cause very few TCs to recurve. This study indicates that large uncertainties surround future Europe-impacting PTCs and provides a framework for evaluating PTCs in future generations of climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

North Atlantic tropical and post‐tropical cyclones impact midlatitude regions, but the inhomogeneous observational record of the latter stages of tropical cyclones precludes many climatological analyses. The frequency of tropical‐origin storms basin‐wide is projected to increase under anthropogenic climate change, so establishing confidence in our knowledge of their historical variability and lifecycles—against which climate model simulations may be evaluated—is important. We used a Lagrangian feature‐tracking algorithm to identify tropical cyclones that impacted Northeast North America and Europe in seven global reanalysis data sets, distinguishing systems that retained warm‐core structures or underwent warm seclusion from those that underwent extratropical transition, acquiring cold‐core, frontal structures. Over the last four decades, ∼25% and ∼10% of tropical‐origin cyclones made landfall across Northeast North America and Europe, respectively, as warm‐core systems, with, on average, higher wind speeds than cold‐core systems. Historical warm‐core and cold‐core landfalls also exhibit distinct tracks, likely responding to differing steering flow and midlatitude conditions. Plain Language Summary: Tropical cyclones and their impacts are not confined to the tropics. In the North Atlantic, the historical record of observed tropical cyclones is probably better than anywhere else, yet even this record is unreliable for storms that originate in the tropics and migrate to the midlatitudes, a particular danger to North American and European coastal regions. Operational collection of pre‐satellite aerial and ship‐based observations has changed over time, and the record of storm landfalls outside the United States is incomplete. These data issues matter because the frequency of tropical‐origin storms across the midlatitudes is expected to increase under anthropogenic climate change, and the basis of any assessment of future risk must be a robust historical understanding. We therefore turned to reanalyses (gridded climate data sets) and an objective storm‐tracking algorithm to identify tropical cyclones that impacted two regions: Northeast North America and Europe. We examined the lifecycles of these storms and their nature and intensity at landfall. Over the last four decades, approximately one in four landfalls over Northeast North America exhibited tropical‐cyclone characteristics, and such storms are associated with high wind speeds, posing a greater risk. For Europe, that number is one in 10, a surprisingly high proportion. How this may change in future will affect populous regions on both sides of the North Atlantic. Key Points: North Atlantic cyclones originating in the tropics examined across seven reanalysesReanalyses show consistent interannual variability, seasonality, and structural evolution of tropical‐origin cyclonesIntensity evolution and tracks are distinct between warm‐core and cold‐core cyclones [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]