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The Arctic is a vital component of the global climate, and its rapid environmental evolution is an important element of climate change around the world. To detect and diagnose the changes occurring to the coupled Arctic climate system, a state-of-the-art synthesis for assessment and monitoring is imperative. This paper presents the Arctic System Reanalysis, version 2 (ASRv2), a multiagency, university-led retrospective analysis (reanalysis) of the greater Arctic region using blends of the polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (Polar WRF) Model and WRF three-dimensional variational data assimilated observations for a comprehensive integration of the regional climate of the Arctic for 2000-12. New features in ASRv2 compared to version 1 (ASRv1) include 1) higher-resolution depiction in space (15-km horizontal resolution), 2) updated model physics including subgrid-scale cloud fraction interaction with radiation, and 3) a dual outer-loop routine for more accurate data assimilation. ASRv2 surface and pressure-level products are available at 3-hourly and monthly mean time scales at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Analysis of ASRv2 reveals superior reproduction of near-surface and tropospheric variables. Broadscale analysis of forecast precipitation and site-specific comparisons of downward radiative fluxes demonstrate significant improvement over ASRv1. The high-resolution topography and land surface, including weekly updated vegetation and realistic sea ice fraction, sea ice thickness, and snow-cover depth on sea ice, resolve finescale processes such as topographically forced winds. Thus, ASRv2 permits a reconstruction of the rapid change in the Arctic since the beginning of the twenty-first century-complementing global reanalyses. ASRv2 products will be useful for environmental models, verification of regional processes, or siting of future observation networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peru experiences recurrent ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) events during which the Peruvian bay scallop ( Argopecten purpuratus) undergoes substantial changes in its stock size. In the North of the country strong warm ENSO events are synonymous with floods and river discharges that negatively affect scallop biomass, while in the South increased sea surface temperatures lead to an increase in stock size. This paper explores how formal institutions respond to climate variability and resource fluctuations in the scallop fishery, and what role they play in the maintenance or erosion of resilience. The research shows that formal institutions are slow to learn, self-reorganize and respond to climate variability while fishermen’s responses are spontaneous, ensuring a rapid process of individual adaptation. Institutional responses are mostly ex-post, and are not strongly shaped by past experience, thus eroding the resilience of the system. However, fishermen’s responses sometimes lead to negative outcomes such as local stock overexploitation or ‘invasion’ of natural scallop habitats for scallop grow-out, and formal institutions play an important role in resilience building through the control of effort and entry in the fishery. In this paper causal loop diagrams are used to conceptualize the fishery system to highlight key variables and processes. The study thus provides the opportunity to explore the usefulness of causal loop diagrams and conceptual models combined with participatory approaches in the exploration of the resilience of a system. The case study also illustrates that individual adaptation, a feature of resilience, is occurring and will occur spontaneously, changing property right regimes and responding not only to climate variability but also market forces. In order to maintain and build resilience and engender positive management outcomes, formal institutions not only need to shape fishermen decision-making, they must also contribute to knowledge building as well as the adoption of innovative approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the observational and theoretical basis for the prediction of seasonal-to-interannual (S/I) climate variability in the Atlantic sector. The emphasis is on the large-scale picture rather than on regional details. The paper is divided into two main parts: a discussion of the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)—the dominant pattern of variability in the North Atlantic—and a review of the tropical Atlantic prediction problem. The remote effects of El Niño are also mentioned as an important factor in Atlantic climate variability. Only a brief discussion is provided on the subject of South Atlantic climate predictability. Because of its chaotic dynamical nature, the NAO and its related rainfall and temperature variability, while highly significant over Europe and North America, are largely unpredictable. This also affects the predictive skill over the tropical Atlantic, because the NAO interferes with the remote influence of El Niño. That said, there appears to be an insufficiently understood, marginal signal in the NAO behavior that may be predictable and thus useful to certain end users. It is manifested in the deviation of the NAO temporal behavior from first-order autoregressive behavior. Tropical Atlantic climate variability centers on the sensitivity of the marine ITCZ to remote forcing from the equatorial Pacific and interactions with underlying sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Both mechanisms are potentially predictable—that is, given the underlying SSTs and the strength of El Niño, one could determine with a high degree of skill the anomalies in ITCZ position and intensity. However, local SSTs are easily affected by largely unpredictable North and South Atlantic phenomena, such as the NAO. In addition, the local ocean–atmosphere coupling in the Atlantic acts on relatively short time scales. Thus, in reality the level of skill indicated by forced model simulations are difficult to achieve. The use of coupled models may improve the prospects of tropical Atlantic prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A currently popular idea is that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can be viewed as a linear deterministic system forced by noise representing processes with periods shorter than ENSO. Also, there is observational evidence to suggest that the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) acts to trigger and/or amplify the warm phase of ENSO in this way. The feedback of the slower process, ENSO, to higher-frequency atmospheric phenomena, of which a large part of the variability in the intraseasonal band is due to the MJO, has received little attention. This paper considers the hypothesis that the probability of an El Niño event is modified by high MJO activity and that, in turn, the MJO is regulated by ENSO activity. If this is indeed the case, then viewing ENSO as a low-frequency oscillation forced by additive stochastic noise would not present a complete picture. This paper tests the above hypothesis using a stochastically forced intermediate coupled model by allowing ENSO to directly influence the stochastic forcing. The model response to a variety of stochastic forcing types is found to be sensitive to the type of forcing applied. When the model is operated beyond its intrinsic Hopf bifurcation, its probability distribution function (PDF) is fundamentally altered when the stochastic forcing is changed from additive to multiplicative. The model integration period also influences the shape of the PDF, which is also compared to the PDF derived from observations. It is found that multiplicative stochastic forcing reproduces some measures of the observations better than the additive stochastic forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This paper contributes to knowledge of the impact of global warming on viticulture, using major vineyard regions of New Zealand as a case study to illustrate regional disparities in climate change impacts resulting from downscale effects of larger scale atmospheric circulation. Recent trends in air temperature in New Zealand vineyard areas are investigated. Trends since 1941 in Marlborough show an increase in temperature range, with both rising maximum temperatures and declining minimum temperatures, but no change in the annual mean. More hot days and frosts are of concern to viticulturalists, and this trend not only differs from other major vineyard areas, but also occurs at other sites in eastern parts of the country. The relationship between changes in atmospheric circulation over New Zealand and observed trends in temperature and frost occurrence at Blenheim is investigated using the Kidson weather type classification for the period 1958-2010 and the Trenberth M1 index. The increased temperature range is expected to be associated with more frequent clear skies along the east coast of the country, resulting from changes in weather patterns (more frequent anticyclones, fewer low-pressure systems, increased zonal and southerly flow). These changes in weather patterns are shown to be closely linked to larger scale changes in atmospheric circulation via the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Southern Oscillation. The results show that significant regional variations in the impact of global warming can occur over areas of complex terrain such as New Zealand. Observed differences in local temperature and frost trends can be caused by the interaction of changing weather systems with mountainous terrain. These changing weather systems themselves are seen to be the result of major shifts in the larger scale atmospheric circulation. These results are important for assessing possible impacts on viticulture and in developing adaptation strategies for agriculture in response to predicted future climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over recent decades, analyses of the structure and impact of atmospheric teleconnections have substantially increased our understanding of the climate system and the role of climate variability. Moving beyond simple correlations between teleconnection indices and temperature and precipitation anomalies, synoptic climatology has been able to provide insight on the spatiotemporal manifestation of teleconnection anomalies, as well as further understanding in terms of teleconnection-related anomalies in circulation pattern frequencies that can lead to extreme events over individual areas. In this progress report, we focus on a number of recent papers that, broadly defined, assess two realms of teleconnections: the North Atlantic circulation, largely focusing on the North Atlantic Oscillation; and the north and tropical Pacific circulation, as manifest in El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American pattern, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In each of these two regions, we highlight the major goals and results of recent synoptic research. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The semi-arid US Intermountain West is characterized by complex hydroclimatic variability, influenced both by topography and by atmosphere and ocean processes operating over a large range of time and space scales. Understanding climate–hydrology interactions has become increasingly important as demands on water resources grow from both within and beyond the region, particularly in light of projected climate changes. This paper reviews key atmospheric and oceanic controls that impact the Intermountain West’s water supply, how those controls vary over multiple timescales, the tree-ring record of hydroclimatic variability in the region, projected climate change impacts, and research needs for the future. Water availability in the Intermountain West is largely influenced by interrelated atmospheric features that include the strength and position of the Pacific subtropical high, the intensity and geographic location of the Aleutian low, the latitude of the westerly storm track, and teleconnections such as the Pacific North American pattern and the El Niño−Southern Oscillation system. The tree-ring record of pre-instrumental conditions in the Intermountain West indicates that there have been droughts in the past that were more severe than those experienced in the historical record. Climate model projections of future moisture-related changes, including decreased snowpack and changing seasonality of precipitation, may exacerbate strain on the region’s water supply. Advances in climate modeling and in our understanding of climate variability over multiple time and space scales would improve capacity for water resource management in the Intermountain West. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper discusses patterns of annual and monthly precipitation variability at seven weather stations in east central Europe (1851–2007). Precipitation patterns were compared to three simple regional indices of atmospheric circulation, i.e., western circulation, southern circulation and the cyclonicity (C) index and a relationship between precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation index was identified. Correlations of the monthly records and multiple regression, using a principal components’ analysis, helped determine the statistical significance of the dependence of precipitation on the circulation indices. The Mann–Kendall test revealed no trend to change in any of the precipitation series, but a certain spatial regularity could be discerned in the phase of the annual periodic component. A common feature of the variability in central European annual precipitation is the dry period identified in the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. In the northern part of the region, above-average precipitation was noted from the 1960s through to the mid-1970s as a result of the frequent prevalence of depressions. South of the divide, the wettest period was recorded at the turn of 1930s/1940s. After a number of very wet years in the last decade of the twentieth century and the beginning of the twenty-first century, precipitation began to fall at all of the region’s weather stations. The C index is the strongest circulation-linked factor influencing precipitation in central Europe and it accounts for more than 40% of the variance in spatially averaged wintertime precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a penalized maximal t test (PMT) is proposed for detecting undocumented mean shifts in climate data series. PMT takes the relative position of each candidate changepoint into account, to diminish the effect of unequal sample sizes on the power of detection. Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of PMT, in comparison with the most popularly used method, the standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT). An application of the two methods to atmospheric pressure series recorded at a Canadian site is also presented. It is shown that the false-alarm rate of PMT is very close to the specified level of significance and is evenly distributed across all candidate changepoints, whereas that of SNHT can be up to 10 times the specified level for points near the ends of series and much lower for the middle points. In comparison with SNHT, therefore, PMT has higher power for detecting all changepoints that are not too close to the ends of series and lower power for detecting changepoints that are near the ends of series. On average, however, PMT has significantly higher power of detection. The smaller the shift magnitude Δ is relative to the noise standard deviation σ, the greater is the improvement of PMT over SNHT. The improvement in hit rate can be as much as 14%–25% for detecting small shifts (Δ < σ) regardless of time series length and up to 5% for detecting medium shifts (Δ = σ–1.5σ) in time series of length N < 100. For all detectable shift sizes, the largest improvement is always obtained when N < 100, which is of great practical importance, because most annual climate data series are of length N < 100. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes an approach that gives an estimate of the reconstructive skill of a proxy-based palaeoclimatological reconstruction. Uncertainties in proxy data are likely to be reflected in variations in reconstructive skill of the proxy-based climatic reconstructions. The method is based on making an ensemble of reconstructions, providing a probability distribution of each reconstruction estimate. The relative breadth of the distribution for a particular reconstructed value should give an indication of the reconstructive skill. The ensemble reconstruction approach draws on the ensemble prediction system as used for operational weather forecasting. The ensemble reconstruction approach is tested using a recent multiproxy reconstruction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. It is shown that the ensemble approach provides a representation of the degree of certainty associated with the reconstructed NAO-index values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: During the boreal summer the Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) stretches from the eastern North Pacific to the tropical North Atlantic and is a key feature of the climate of the Americas and Africa. In the summers following nine El Niño events during 1950–2000, there have been five instances of extraordinarily large warm pools averaging about twice the climatological annual size. These large warm pools have induced a strengthened divergent circulation aloft and have been associated with rainfall anomalies throughout the western hemisphere tropics and subtropics and with more frequent hurricanes. However, following four other El Niño events large warm pools did not develop, such that the mere existence of El Niño during the boreal winter does not provide the basis for predicting an anomalously large warm pool the following summer. In this paper, we find consistency with the hypothesis that large warm pools result from an anomalous divergent circulation forced by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific, the so-called atmospheric bridge. We also find significant explanations for why large warm pools do not always develop. If the El Niño event ends early in the eastern Pacific, the Pacific warm anomaly lacks the persistence needed to force the atmospheric bridge and the Atlantic portion of the warm pool remains normal. If SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific do not last much beyond February of the following year, then the eastern North Pacific portion of the warm pool remains normal. The overall strength of the Pacific El Niño does not appear to be a critical factor. We also find that when conditions favor a developing atmospheric bridge and the winter atmosphere over the North Atlantic conforms to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern (as in 1957–58 and 1968–69), the forcing is reinforced and the warm pool is stronger. On the other hand, if a positive NAO pattern develops the warm pool may remain normal even if other circumstances favor the atmospheric bridge, as in 1991–92. Finally, we could find little evidence that interactions internal to the tropical Atlantic are likely to mitigate for or against the formation of the largest warm pools, although they may affect smaller warm pool fluctuations or the warm pool persistence. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The 1976 Pacific climate shift is examined, and its manifestations and significance in Alaskan climatology during the last half-century are demonstrated. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation index shifted in 1976 from dominantly negative values for the 25-yr time period 1951–75 to dominantly positive values for the period 1977–2001. Mean annual and seasonal temperatures for the positive phase were up to 3.1°C higher than for the negative phase. Likewise, mean cloudiness, wind speeds, and precipitation amounts increased, while mean sea level pressure and geopotential heights decreased. The pressure decrease resulted in a deepening of the Aleutian low in winter and spring. The intensification of the Aleutian low increased the advection of relatively warm and moist air to Alaska and storminess over the state during winter and spring. The regime shift is also examined for its effect on the long-term temperature trends throughout the state. The trends that have shown climatic warming are strongly biased by the sudden shift in 1976 from the cooler regime to a warmer regime. When analyzing the total time period from 1951 to 2001, warming is observed; however, the 25-yr period trend analyses before 1976 (1951–75) and thereafter (1977–2001) both display cooling, with a few exceptions. In this paper, emphasis is placed on the importance of taking into account the sudden changes that result from abrupt climatic shifts, persistent regimes, and the possibility of cyclic oscillations, such as the PDO, in the analysis of long-term climate change in Alaska. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]