1. Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble
- Author
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Yohei Yamada, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Joanne Camp, Dan Fu, Hong Wang, Rein Haarsma, Pier Luigi Vidale, Colin M. Zarzycki, Jenny Mecking, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nan Rosenbloom, Sophie Valcke, Enrico Scoccimarro, Chihiro Kodama, M. P. Moine, Paul A. Ullrich, Laurent Terray, Kevin I. Hodges, Fabrice Chauvin, Alessio Bellucci, Qiuying Zhang, Dian Putrasahan, Lixin Wu, Malcolm J. Roberts, Retish Senan, Ryo Mizuta, Jon Seddon, Benoit Vanniere, Christopher D. Roberts, and Barcelona Supercomputing Center
- Subjects
future change ,Atmospheric Science ,Informatics ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,High resolution ,010502 geochemistry & geophysics ,01 natural sciences ,Tracking algorithms ,Oceans ,Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ,Climate change ,Ciclons ,Climatology ,Climate and Interannual Variability ,Oceanography: General ,Geophysics ,Tropical cyclones ,Atmospheric Processes ,Cyclones--Tropics ,Simulacio per ordinador ,Tropical Cyclones ,Tropical cyclone ,Modeling and simulation in science, engineering & technology ,Mathematical Geophysics ,Oceanography: Physical ,Global Climate Models ,Persistence, Memory, Correlations, Clustering ,tracking algorithms ,Future change ,Climate models ,Decadal Ocean Variability ,Paleoceanography ,Extreme Events ,Component (UML) ,Research Letter ,Global Change ,Numerical Modeling ,CMIP6 ,Numerical Solutions ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Model bias ,Desenvolupament humà i sostenible [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC] ,Climate Change and Variability ,high resolution ,Climate Variability ,Modeling ,model bias ,Research Letters ,Climate Action ,13. Climate action ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,Environmental science ,Climate model ,Computational Geophysics ,Hydrology ,Natural Hazards - Abstract
Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere‐only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050., Key Points Biases in tropical cyclone distribution, frequency, and intensity are generally reduced in models at 25 km resolutionNorthern Hemisphere basins show mixed responses to future forcing, while Southern Indian Ocean activity projected to declineFuture changes in 10 m wind speed in coupled models are mixed, and models with lower bias suggest small increases
- Published
- 2020
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