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Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are narrow filaments of high moisture flux responsible for most of the horizontal transport of water vapor from the tropics to mid-latitudes. Improving forecasts of ARs through numerical weather prediction (NWP) is important for increasing the resilience of the western US to flooding and droughts. These NWP forecasts rely on the improved understanding of AR physics and dynamics from satellite, radar, aircraft, and in situ observations, and now airborne radio occultation (ARO) can contribute to those goals. The ARO technique is based on precise measurements of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) signal delays collected from a receiver onboard an aircraft from setting or rising GNSS satellites. ARO inherits the advantages of high vertical resolution and all-weather capability of spaceborne RO observations and has the additional advantage of continuous and dense sampling of the targeted storm area. This work presents a comprehensive ARO dataset recovered from four years of AR Reconnaissance (AR Recon) missions over the eastern Pacific. The final dataset is comprised of ∼ 1700 ARO profiles from 39 flights (∼ 260 flight hours) from multiple GNSS constellations. Profiles extend from aircraft cruising altitude (13–14 km) down into the lower troposphere, with more than 50 % of the profiles extending below 4 km, below which the receiver loses or cannot initiate lock. The horizontal drift of the tangent points that comprise a given ARO profile greatly extends the area sampled from just underneath the aircraft to both sides of the flight track (up to ∼ 400 km). The estimated refractivity accuracy with respect to dropsondes is ∼ 1.2 %, in the upper troposphere where the sample points are closely collocated. For the lower troposphere, the agreement is within ∼ 7 % which is the level of consistency expected given the nature of atmospheric variations over the 300–700 km separation between the lowest point and the dropsonde. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing the density of Global Navigation Satellite System radio occultation (RO) with commercial Smallsats and the next generation COSMIC-2 constellation is expected to improve analyses of the state of atmosphere, which is essential for numerical weather prediction. High vertical resolution RO profiles could be useful to observe atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the ocean, which transport water vapor in shallow, elongated corridors that frequently impact the west coasts of continents. The multi-year AR Reconnaissance campaign has extensively sampled ARs over the northeastern Pacific with dropsondes, providing an invaluable dataset to evaluate the reliability of RO retrievals. These dropsondes, and a reanalysis product that assimilates them, are compared to three RO datasets: (1) established operational missions, (2) COSMIC-2, and (3) the commercial Spire constellation. Each RO dataset has biases relative to reanalyses of less than 0.5% N in the upper troposphere and negative biases in the lower troposphere. Direct colocations with dropsondes indicate that vertical refractivity gradients present within ARs may be contributing to negative biases at higher altitudes inside than outside ARs, where the greatest variability and vertical gradients are at the well-defined boundary layer top. Observations from Spire are overly smooth, affecting the ability to resolve the low-level structure of an AR. Surprisingly, the depth of penetration into the lower troposphere is greater inside an AR than outside for all datasets. The results indicate that the observation errors used for assimilation of RO within ARs should consider the height dependent biases that are associated with the structure of the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the western US are responsible for ∼30%–50% of the annual precipitation, and their accurate forecasts are essential for aiding water management decisions and reducing flood risks. Sparse coverage of conventional observations over the Pacific Ocean, which can cause inadequate upstream initial conditions for numerical weather prediction models, may limit the improvement of forecast skill for these events. A targeted field program called AR Reconnaissance (Recon) was initiated in 2016 to better understand and reduce forecast errors of landfalling ARs at 1–5 days lead times. During the winter seasons of 2016, 2018, and 2019, 15 Intensive Observation Periods (IOPs) sampled the upstream conditions for landfalling ARs. This study evaluates the impact on forecast accuracy of assimilating these dropsonde data. Data denial experiments with (WithDROP) and without (NoDROP) dropsonde data were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation four‐dimensional ensemble variational system. Comparisons between the 15 paired NoDROP and WithDROP experiments demonstrate that AR Recon dropsondes reduced the root‐mean‐square error in integrated vapor transport (IVT) and inland precipitation for more than 70% of the IOPs, averaged over all forecast lead times from 1 to 6 days. Dropsondes have improved the spatial pattern of forecasts of IVT and precipitation in all 15 IOPs. Significant improvements in skill are found beyond the short range (1–2 days). IOP sequences (i.e., back‐to‐back IOPs every other day) show the most improvement of inland precipitation forecast skill. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow corridors of water vapor transport in the atmosphere from the tropics to higher latitudes. Up to half of the annual precipitation in the western US states is related to landfalling ARs. Therefore, accurate forecasts of these events are important to reduce socio‐economic damage from the associated high‐impact weather and to better manage water resources over the western US. However, the forecast accuracy can be limited by sparse observations upstream over the Pacific Ocean. To fill observation gaps and improve forecast skills, a weather reconnaissance mission called Atmospheric River Reconnaissance was initiated in 2016 to release dropsondes from aircraft in key upstream sensitive regions. This study assesses the value of these observations in improving the initial conditions and the forecast skill of a regional model operated at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes for near real‐time weather forecasts. We found that the use of these additional observations collected during 2016, 2018, and 2019 has a positive impact on reducing the forecast error of water vapor transport within the Northeastern Pacific domain and the inland precipitation skill over the western US. These observations have more impact in poorly forecasted cases. Key Points: Dropsondes have reduced the forecast error of water vapor transport over the Northeast Pacific with continuous improvement out to day 3Dropsondes overall improved the precipitation forecast over the US West Coast in 11 out of 15 Intensive Observation Periods (IOPs)IOP sequences (i.e., back‐to‐back IOPs every other day) have the most positive impact on improving the precipitation forecast skill [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water management and flood control are major challenges in the western United States. They are heavily influenced by atmospheric river (AR) storms that produce both beneficial water supply and hazards; for example, 84% of all flood damages in the West (up to 99% in key areas) are associated with ARs. However, AR landfall forecast position errors can exceed 200 km at even 1-day lead time and yet many watersheds are <100 km across, which contributes to issues such as the 2017 Oroville Dam spillway incident and regularly to large flood forecast errors. Combined with the rise of wildfires and deadly post-wildfire debris flows, such as Montecito (2018), the need for better AR forecasts is urgent. Atmospheric River Reconnaissance (AR Recon) was developed as a research and operations partnership to address these needs. It combines new observations, modeling, data assimilation, and forecast verification methods to improve the science and predictions of landfalling ARs. ARs over the northeast Pacific are measured using dropsondes from up to three aircraft simultaneously. Additionally, airborne radio occultation is being tested, and drifting buoys with pressure sensors are deployed. AR targeting and data collection methods have been developed, assimilation and forecast impact experiments are ongoing, and better understanding of AR dynamics is emerging. AR Recon is led by the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes and NWS/NCEP. The effort's core partners include the U.S. Navy, U.S. Air Force, NCAR, ECMWF, and multiple academic institutions. AR Recon is included in the "National Winter Season Operations Plan" to support improved outcomes for emergency preparedness and water management in the West. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate representation of cloud microphysical processes in numerical weather and climate models has proven challenging, in part because of the highly specialized instrumentation required for diagnosing errors in simulated distributions of hydrometeors. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) polarimetric radio occultation (PRO) is a promising new technique that is sensitive to hydrometeors and has the potential to help address these challenges by providing microphysical observations that are relevant to larger spatial scales, especially if this type of observing system can be implemented on aircraft that can target heavy precipitation events. Two numerical experiments were run using a mesoscale model configured with two different microphysical parameterization schemes for a very intense atmospheric river (AR) event that was sampled by aircraft deploying dropsondes just before it made landfall in California, during the CalWater 2015 field campaign. The numerical experiments were used to simulate profiles of airborne polarimetric differential phase delay observations. The differential phase delay due to liquid water hydrometeors below the freezing level differed significantly in the two experiments, as well as the height of the maximum differential phase delay due to all hydrometeors combined. These results suggest that PRO observations from aircraft have the potential to contribute to validating and improving the representation of microphysical processes in numerical weather forecasts once these observations become available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]