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The impacts of climate change on the agricultural, energy, forestry, and water sectors of MINK would reverberate negatively throughout the regional economy. Allowing for sectoral adjustments to the new climate, however, the decline in regional income and production would not likely exceed 1–2%. The largest economy-wide impacts would be by way of the agricultural and water sectors. The impacts by way of forestry and energy would be negligible, unless the nation adopts a program of massive reforestation to capture CO2, which would positively affect the regional economy.

The adaptability of forests in the U.S. midwest to a changing climate is assessed. The forests of Missouri are simulated with a ‘forest-gap’ model, a stochastic model of the annual growth and mortality of trees within mixed-species forest plots. The development of representative forest plots under an analog climate like that of the 1930s is compared to development under baseline climate conditions. With no management response, average forest biomass in the region declines by 11% within ten years, primarily due to moisture-stress induced mortality. Longer term declines in forest productivity on the order of 30% are simulated. A variety of possible management responses through planting or harvesting practices were evaluated. None of these adaptations appear to be practical, although the salvage harvest of stressed trees would offset the economifc losses associated with the early mortality. An investigation of anticipated trends in the broader forest products sector suggests that opportunities for further adaptation to offset the decline in primary productivity of this region's forest are quite limited. However, a shift to wood powered electrical generation in the region might justify a level of management that would allow some adaptation to the analog climate change.

A four step methodology has been developed for study of the regional impacts of climate change and the possible responses thereto. First the region's climate sensitive sectors and total economy are described (Task A, current baseline). Next a scenario of climate change is imposed on the current baseline (Task B, current baseline with climate change). A new baseline describing the climate sensitive sectors and total regional economy is projected for some time in the future (Task C, future baseline, year 2030) in the absence of climate change. Finally, the climate change scenario is reimposed on the future baseline (Task D, future baseline with climate change). Impacts of the climate change scenario on the current and future regional economies are determined by means of simulation models and other appropriate techniques. These techniques are also used to assess the impacts of an elevated CO2 concentration (450 ppm) and of various forms of adjustments and adaptations.

The climate of the 1930s was used as an analog of the climate that might occur in Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas (the MINK region) as a consequence of global warming. The analog climate was imposed on the agriculture of the region under technological and economic conditions prevailing in 1984/87 and again under a scenario of conditions that might prevail in 2030. The EPIC model of Williamset al. (1984), modified to allow consideration of the yield enhancing effects of CO2 enrichment, was used to evaluate the impacts of the analog climate on the productivity and water use of some 50 representative farm enterprises. Before farm level adjustments and adaptations to the changed climate, and absent CO2 enrichment (from 350 to 450 ppm), production of corn, sorghum and soybeans was depressed by the analog climate in about the same percent under both current and 2030 conditions. Production of dryland wheat was unaffected. Irrigated wheat production actually increased. Farm level adjustments using low-cost currently available technologies, combined with CO2 enrichment, eliminated about 80% of the negative impact of the analog climate on 1984/87 baseline crop production. The same farm level adjustments, plus new technologies developed in response to the analog climate, when combined with CO2 enrichment, converted the negative impact on 2030 crop production to a small increase. The analog climate would have little direct effect on animal production in MINK. The effect, if any, would be by way of the impact on production of feed-grains and soybeans. Since this impact would be small after on-farm adjustments and CO2 enrichment, animal production in MINK would be little affected by the analog climate.

Original editorial can be found at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/ Copyright Elsevier [Full text of this paper is not available in the UHRA]

Atmospheric ozone columns are derived from historic stellar spectra observed between 1935 and 1942 at Mount Wilson Observatory, California. Comparisons with contemporary measurements in the Arosa database show a generally close correspondence, while a similar comparison with more sparse data from Table Mountain reveals a difference of ~15–20%, as has also been found by other researches of the latter data. The results of the analysis indicate that astronomy's archives command considerable potential for investigating the natural levels of ozone and its variability during the decades prior to anthropogenic interference.

The similarity between the diurnal patterns of monthly mean dew-point temperatures for April in Nlamey, West Africa and Patancheru, India is striking The small diurnal varlatxon in vapour pressure relative to the vapour pressure defictt is similar in both locations. Although the error m estimating dally mean vapour pressure deficit from two spot readings of humidity is small xn the example given by Culf et al (1994), in India this is not always so for lndlvmal days (as opposed to monthly means) To illustrate this I have compared dally mean vapour pressures from the automatic weather statxon at the ICRISAT Center (readmgs every 5 mln) with means from spot readings at 07 15 and 14 15 h The difference between the two, expressed as a percentage of the mean dally vapour pressure deficit, was computed between May 1981 and October 1985 for each day in the analysis of Butler (1992) This gave the distribution of the error in calculating mean dally vapour pressure deficit from two spot readings of humidity (Fig 1) Overall, the mean error for the whole period was close to zero, but on individual days the error commonly exceeded 10% ...

Following reports from Australia and overseas countries of the benefits gained from the use of optical equipment in the erection of paper and other precisely erected machines (Reference Bibliography) it was decided by Australian Paper Manufacturers Ltd. in September, 1959, to make use of the modern equipment available.

International audience; The Semi-Arid Land-Surface-Atmosphere Program (SALSA) is a multi-agency, multi-national research effort that seeks to evaluate the consequences of natural and human-induced environmental change in semi-arid regions. The ultimate goal of SALSA is to advance scientific understanding of the semi-arid portion of the hydrosphere-biosphere interface in order to provide reliable information for environmental decision making. SALSA approaches this goal through a program of long-term, integrated observations, process research, modeling, assessment, and information management that is sustained by cooperation among scientists and information users. In this preface to the SALSA special issue, general program background information and the critical nature of semi-arid regions is presented. A brief description of the Upper San Pedro River Basin, the initial location for focused SALSA research follows. Several overarching research objectives under which much of the interdisciplinary research contained in the special issue was undertaken are discussed. Principal methods, primary research sites and data collection used by numerous investigators during 1997-1999 are then presented. Scientists from about 20 US, five European (four French and one Dutch), and three Mexican agencies and institutions have collaborated closely to make the research leading to this special issue a reality. The SALSA Program has served as a model of interagency cooperation by breaking new ground in the approach to large scale interdisciplinary science with relatively limited resources.

Economic studies of proposed environmental regulations begin with estimates of compliance actions and their costs. The assumptions about compliance actions can be misleading. In economic studies pertaining to regulations for volatile organic compound emissions by Illinois paper coaters, three sources of shortcomings are particularly evident: 1) failure to appreciate linkages between regulations applying to closely allied industries; 2) emphasis on well-known technologies, despite strong evidence that they will be displaced; and 3) heavy reliance on EPA technical data, whether or not they fairly represent state or local conditions.

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN42(4)2004,295–296 ©CanadianMeteorologicalandOceanographicSociety *Correspondingauthor’se-mail: wangz@zephyr.meteo.mcgill.ca In thecommentofWeaverandEbyonWangetal.(2004),it ispointedoutthatthedescriptioninWangetal.(2004)ofthe treatment of albedo processes in the University of Victoria (UVic)modelisincorrect.Weagreethatsomestatements in Wang et al. (2004) are inaccurate,andweapologize for the confusion that thismayhavecaused.Inordertoclarifyour descriptionoftheUVicmodelasinWeaveretal.(2001),we note the following. Bydefinition,theintegratedsurfacealbedo s isdefinedas

There has been a consistent rise in urban disasters, particularly in developing countries located in tropical areas. Among various challenges of disaster risk management and climate change impacts, it is noted that most residents are poorly informed about their risk exposure or apposite response. The paper is based on the premise that one important cause for this gap is inadequate emphasis on risk communication at different levels of planning and agreements. Accordingly, it highlights some important gaps in the risk communication across international agreements including Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR), Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and evaluates their impacts at the local level. It brings three selected urban case studies located in the tropical areas of the South Asia region that illustrate gaps in risk communication that result in enhanced vulnerability and deviations in response. The findings are based on secondary data and literature focusing on global agreements, risk communication, and disaster response. The paper argues that even though global strategies address urban risks, the fragmented nature of risk communication results in poor response and contributes to losses that occur in disasters. Three critical gaps noted in risk communication include (i) it not prioritized at different levels, (ii) inadequate structures to measure its impacts and stakeholders inclusiveness, and (iii) indifference to cultural diversity and integration. Further, it is suggested that there is a need to redefine risk communication at the global scale that extends beyond warning generation and considers multiple factors influencing response including interlinked vulnerabilities and variations in perceptions emerging from varied geographical, socio-cultural, economic, and political processes.

The evidence for predictability of interannual fluctuations in the atmosphere and oceans is reviewed. The more linear nature of tropical dynamics is contrasted with the chaotic nature of extratropical circulations. The role of the largest interannual fluctuation, the El Nino Southern Oscillation, which has its origins in the tropical Pacific, but extends to influence half the globe, is the focus of much of the review. It is argued that the statistics of the chaotic regime behaviour of the extratropics are influenced by such forcing from the tropics. Seasonal predictions can be made with empirical or physically based models. The skill of both is reviewed but most consideration is given to the latter. Such models have both atmospheric and oceanic components but there is a wide range in the complexity of these modules. Developments in both atmospheric and oceanic models, needed to improve seasonal forecasts, are discussed. It is shown that predictions are sensitive to initial conditions as well as model formulation, implying the need for ensemble integrations similar to those currently under development for medium-range weather forecasting. The benefits of developing a seasonal-climate prediction capability are considered, including connections with weather forecasting on the one hand and climate change on the other. This is not an exhaustive review of extended-range predictions. Monthly forecasting is not considered and seasonal predictability is only discussed for the tropics and northern extratropics, with some focus on Europe.

The Gulf Coast province provides an array of scientific dilemmas ranging from the origin of the gulf itself to the causes and effects of long-lasting circulation of hot, deep waters throughout the thick sedimentary section. The nature of the underlying crust and superjacent sediments and their contained waters; the precise timing of rifting; depositional history and diagenesis of the sedimentary sequence; fluid dynamics; geochemistry; hydrocarbon generation and migration; thermal history, including unusually high thermal gradient; and the fluid pressure regime in the deep sedimentary section are too poorly understood to permit quantitative analysis of processes that are of enormous scientific and practical importance. The area centered on DeWitt and Victoria counties, Texas, on the southeastern extension of the San Marcos arch, is probably the best location for a deep borehole to investigate these important phenomena and problems. The arch extends southeastward from exposed Grenville-age basement rocks of the Llano uplift and separates the deep South Texas and Houston embayment salt basins. Seaward of the Llano uplift, highly deformed and slightly metamorphosed rocks of the Ouachita-Marathon orogen have been intersected beneath Cretaceous sediments. The inferred edge of continental crust underlies an extensive Lower Cretaceous reef trend southeast of known Ouachita orogen rocks. Rapid thickening of Tertiary and possibly of Cretaceous sediments southeast of the shelf edge, together with geophysical indications of a relatively shallow Moho, suggests that “transitional continental crust” underlies sediments basinward of the inferred edge of continental crust. This transitional crust, the ultimate objective for a proposed deep well, could be rifted Grenville basement, buried rocks of the Ouachita trend, an island arc related to the Ouachita trend, or exotic continental basement related to a proto-South American continent. To achieve optimum results to guarantee adequate basement penetration, a borehole should be designed to penetrate a relatively thin succession of lower Mesozoic synrift, graben-fill sediments seaward of the shelf edge. Because of expected high temperatures and pressures, new technologies will need to be developed to successfully drill and test the well.

The series of 12 papers that follows this brief introduction is part of the “New Views of the Moon” initiative started by NASA's Curation and Analysis Planning Team for Extraterrestrial Materials (CAPTEM) in 1998 [cf. Jolliff and Ryder, 1998]. This initiative strives to integrate the various facets of lunar investigations, such as remotely sensed surface data (e.g., spectral reflectance, gamma-ray, etc.), geophysics, sample analysis, and space weathering. The ensuing special section of 12 papers is the third that has been published in Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR)-Planets as part of this lunar science initiative and is the result of topical sessions at the 31st Lunar and Planetary Science Conference in 2000. The first, published in 2000 (JGR, 105 (E2), 4173–4368) [Jolliff, 2000], contained 11 papers as a result of the initial “New Views” workshop that was held in Houston in 1998 [Jolliff and Ryder, 1998].

Demetriades-Shah et al. (Agric. For. Meteorol., 1992, 58: 193-207) cast doubts on (a) the dependence of crop growth on incident solar radiation under «normal» field conditions; (b) the validity of the relation between crop growth and intercepted radiation; (c) the need to measure interception as distinct from estimating plausible values. A review of relevant field evidence suggests that most of these doubts are insubstantial