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International audience; This study evaluates the ability of the French convection-permitting model AROME-OM to represent shallow cumulus and their main organisations forboreal winter conditions in the North Atlantic trades. It uses a set of three winter seasons (January–February, 2018–2020) of high-resolution (1.3 and 2.5 km) simulations over the Caribbean domain (9.7–22.9◦ N, 75.3–51.7◦ W). The model is assessed against soundings at Grantley Adams Airport and remote-sensing observations at a site located on the east coast of Barbados which is representative of downwind trade regimes. The thermodynamic environment of the model fits the observations overall but the boundary layer is slightly too deep, resulting in a weak cold and dry bias. Both model and observations clearly exhibit (a) a double peak of cloud fraction, a first peak near the cloud base and a second one near the cloud top and (b) a larger variance in cloudiness near the top of the deepest cumuli, at around 2 km, with a higher sensitivity to the environment. We then take advantage of the EUREC4 A field campaign which took place in January–February 2020 to assess the ability of the model to reproduce the four main mesoscale patterns and to characterize the air masses in which they develop. All the observations confirm the capacity of the model to predict the different mesoscale organizations and their associated environment.

The amount of ice injected into the tropical tropopause layer has a strong radiative impact on climate. A companion paper (Part 1) used the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of ice water content (IWC) as an estimate of ice injection by deep convection, showed that the Maritime Continent (MariCont) region provides the largest injection to the upper troposphere (UT; 146 hPa) and to the tropopause level (TL; 100 hPa). This study focuses on the MariCont region and extends that approach to assess the processes, the areas and the diurnal amount and duration of ice injected over islands and over seas during the austral convective season. The model presented in the companion paper is again used to estimate the amount of ice injected (ΔIWC) by combining ice water content (IWC) measured twice a day by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS; Version 4.2) from 2004 to 2017 and precipitation (Prec) measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM; Version 007) binned at high temporal resolution (1 h). The horizontal distribution of ΔIWC estimated from Prec (ΔIWCPrec) is presented at 2∘×2∘ horizontal resolution over the MariCont. ΔIWC is also evaluated by using the number of lightning events (Flash) from the TRMM-LIS instrument (Lightning Imaging Sensor, from 2004 to 2015 at 1 h and 0.25∘ × 0.25∘ resolution). ΔIWCPrec and ΔIWC estimated from Flash (ΔIWCFlash) are compared to ΔIWC estimated from the ERA5 reanalyses (ΔIWCERA5) with the vertical resolution degraded to that of MLS observations (ΔIWCERA5). Our study shows that the diurnal cycles of Prec and Flash are consistent with each other in phase over land but different over offshore and coastal areas of the MariCont. The observational ΔIWC range between ΔIWCPrec and ΔIWCFlash, interpreted as the uncertainty of our model in estimating the amount of ice injected, is smaller over land (where ΔIWCPrec and ΔIWCFlash agree to within 22 %) than over ocean (where differences are up to 71 %) in the UT and TL. The impact of the MLS vertical resolution on the estimation of ΔIWC is greater in the TL (difference between ΔIWCERA5 and 〈ΔIWCERA5〉 of 32 % to 139 %, depending on the study zone) than in the UT (difference of 9 % to 33 %). Considering all the methods, in the UT, estimates of ΔIWC span 4.2 to 10.0 mg m−3 over land and 0.4 to 4.4 mg m−3 over sea, and in the TL estimates of ΔIWC span 0.5 to 3.9 mg m−3 over land and 0.1 to 0.7 mg m−3 over sea. Finally, based on IWC from MLS and ERA5, Prec and Flash, this study highlights that (1) at both levels, ΔIWC estimated over land can be more than twice that estimated over sea and (2) small islands with high topography present the largest ΔIWC (e.g., island of Java).

The presence of clouds above the tropopause over tropical convection centers has so far been documented by spaceborne instruments that are either sun-synchronous or insensitive to thin cloud layers. Here we document, for the first time through direct observation by spaceborne lidar, how the tropical cloud fraction evolves above the tropopause throughout the day. After confirming previous studies that found such clouds most frequently above convection centers, we show that stratospheric clouds and their vertical extent above the tropopause follow a diurnal rhythm linked to convective activity. The diurnal cycle of the stratospheric clouds displays two maxima: one in the early night (19:00–20:00 LT) and a later one (00:00–01:00 LT). Stratospheric clouds extend up to 0.5–1 km above the tropopause during nighttime, when they are the most frequent. The frequency and the vertical extent of stratospheric clouds is very limited during daytime, and when present they are found very close to the tropopause. Results are similar over the major convection centers (Africa, South America and the Warm Pool), with more clouds above land in DJF (December–January–February) and less above the ocean and in JJA (June–July–August).

The deepest convection on Earth injects water in the tropical stratosphere, but its contribution to the global stratospheric water budget remains uncertain. The Global Storm-Resolving Model ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic is used to simulate the moistening of the lower stratosphere for 40 days during boreal summer. The decomposition of the water vapor budget in the tropical lower stratosphere (TLS, 10°S–30°N, and 17–20 km altitude) indicates that the average moistening (+21 Tg) over the simulated 40-day period is the result of the combined effect of the vertical water vapor transport from the troposphere (+27 Tg), microphysical phase changes and subgrid-scale transport (+2 Tg), partly compensated by horizontal water vapor export (−8 Tg). The very deep convective systems, explicitly represented thanks to the employed 2.5 km grid spacing of the model, are identified using the very low Outgoing Longwave Radiation of their cold cloud tops. The water vapor budget reveals that the vertical transport, the sublimation and the subgrid-scale transport at their top contribute together to 11% of the water vapor mass input into the TLS.

The passage of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) over the Indian Ocean and the Maritime Continent is investigated during the episode of 23–30 November 2011. A Meso-NH convection-permitting simulation with a horizontal grid spacing of 4 km is examined. The simulation reproduces the MJO signal correctly, showing the eastward propagation of the primary rain activity. The atmospheric overturning is analyzed using the isentropic method, which separates the ascending air with high equivalent potential temperature from the subsiding air with low equivalent potential temperature. Three key circulations are found. The first two circulations are a tropospheric deep circulation spanning from the surface to an altitude of 14 km and an overshoot circulation within the tropical tropopause layer. As expected for circulations associated with deep convection, their intensities, as well as their diabatic tendencies, increase during the active phase of the MJO, while their entrainment rates decrease. The third circulation is characterized by a rising of air with low equivalent potential temperature in the lower free troposphere. The intensity of the circulation, as well as its depth, varies with the MJO activity. During the suppressed phase, this circulation is associated with a dry air intrusion from the subtropical region into the tropical band and shows a strong drying of the lower to middle troposphere.

The overturning of Hector the Convector, a tropical multicellular convective system of northern Australia that regularly overshoots into the stratosphere, is synthesized at the scale of a large-eddy simulation. The isentropic analysis offers the advantage of filtering out the reversible motions due to gravity waves and taking into account the turbulent fluxes that contribute to the vertical transport. Two key circulations are characterized: the troposphere deep overturning and the mass exchange due to the overshoots into the stratosphere. The transition from deep to very deep convection is associated with a change in the diabatic tendency inside the tallest updrafts: the latent heat release due to the formation of a large amount of icy hydrometeors exceeds the loss of energy due to mixing with the drier, colder air of the environment. In agreement with a previous study of Hector examining the properties of its two tallest updrafts, the entrainment rate exhibits a minimum during the very deep convection phase as low as 0.04 km−1. The overturning intensity corroborates the Eulerian computation of the vertical mass flux in the midtroposphere and in the lower stratosphere. It however gives a lower estimate of the flux in the upper troposphere, filtering out the reversible motions, and a larger estimate in the lower troposphere and at the tropopause, where slow vertical motions contribute significantly to the transport.

The dynamics of Hector the Convector, which overshot into the stratosphere on 30 November 2005 over the Tiwi Islands, Australia, is investigated using a giga-large-eddy simulation with a 100-m cubic mesh. Individual updrafts, defined as 3D objects with vertical velocity above 10 m s−1 are identified. Among the 20 000 updrafts formed during the most intense phase, only a dozen were more than 4 km tall. The two tallest updrafts accounted for more than 90% of the total vertical mass flux through the tropical tropopause layer. Their locations were determined by low-level convergence lines first created by the sea breeze in the morning, then enhanced by cold pools due to cumulus congestus. They finally reinforced each other as they moved inland and intersected. The two tallest updrafts that overshot the tropopause were contrasted with those occurring 1 h earlier and later. They presented larger widths (up to 8 km), greater buoyancy (up to 0.1 m s−2), stronger vertical velocities (up to 50 m s−1), and larger hydrometeor contents (more than 10 g kg−1). They kept their core weakly diluted on their way to the stratosphere with an entrainment rate as low as 0.08 km−1. Both the low-level convergence lines intensified by cold pools and the reduced mixing in the troposphere were found to be the determinant for the transition from deep to very deep convection.

The source and pathway of the hydration patch in the TTL (tropical tropopause layer) that was measured during the Stratospheric and upper tropospheric processes for better climate predictions (StratoClim) field campaign during the Asian summer monsoon in 2017 and its connection to convective overshoots are investigated. During flight no. 7, two remarkable layers are measured in the TTL, namely (1) the moist layer (ML) with a water vapour content of 4.8–5.7 ppmv in altitudes of 18–19 km in the lower stratosphere and (2) the ice layer (IL) with ice content up to 1.9 eq. ppmv (equivalent parts per million by volume) in altitudes of 17–18 km in the upper troposphere at around 06:30 UTC on 8 August to the south of Kathmandu (Nepal). A Meso-NH convection-permitting simulation succeeds in reproducing the characteristics of the ML and IL. Through analysis, we show that the ML and IL are generated by convective overshoots that occurred over the Sichuan Basin about 1.5 d before. Overshooting clouds develop at altitudes up to 19 km, hydrating the lower stratosphere of up to 20 km with 6401 t of water vapour by a strong-to-moderate mixing of the updraughts with the stratospheric air. A few hours after the initial overshooting phase, a hydration patch is generated, and a large amount of water vapour (above 18 ppmv) remains at even higher altitudes up to 20.5 km while the anvil cloud top descends to 18.5 km. At the same time, a great part of the hydrometeors falls shortly, and the water vapour concentration in the ML and IL decreases due to turbulent diffusion by mixing with the tropospheric air, ice nucleation, and water vapour deposition. As the hydration patch continues to travel toward the south of Kathmandu, tropospheric tracer concentration increases up to ∼30 % and 70 % in the ML and IL, respectively. The air mass in the layers becomes gradually diffused, and it has less and less water vapour and ice content by mixing with the dry tropospheric air.

The contribution of deep convection to the amount of water vapour and ice in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) from the tropical upper troposphere (UT; around 146 hPa) to the tropopause level (TL; around 100 hPa) is investigated. Ice water content (IWC) and water vapour (WV) measured in the UT and the TL by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS; Version 4.2) are compared to the precipitation (Prec) measured by the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM; Version 007). The two datasets, gridded within 2∘ × 2∘ horizontal bins, have been analysed during the austral convective season, December, January, and February (DJF), from 2004 to 2017. MLS observations are performed at 01:30 and 13:30 local solar time, whilst the Prec dataset is constructed with a time resolution of 1 h. The new contribution of this study is to provide a much more detailed picture of the diurnal variation of ice than is provided by the very limited (two per day) MLS observations. Firstly, we show that IWC represents 70 % and 50 % of the total water in the tropical UT and TL, respectively, and that Prec is spatially highly correlated with IWC in the UT (Pearson's linear coefficient R=0.7). We propose a method that uses Prec as a proxy for deep convection bringing ice up to the UT and TL during the growing stage of convection, in order to estimate the amount of ice injected into the UT and the TL, respectively. We validate the method using ice measurements from the Superconducting Submillimeter-Wave Limb-Emission Sounder (SMILES) during the period DJF 2009–2010. Next, the diurnal cycle of injection of IWC into the UT and the TL by deep convection is calculated by the difference between the maximum and the minimum in the estimated diurnal cycle of IWC in these layers and over selected convective zones. Six tropical highly convective zones have been chosen: South America, South Africa, Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, and the Maritime Continent region, split into land (MariCont-L) and ocean (MariCont-O). IWC injection is found to be 2.73 and 0.41 mg m−3 over tropical land in the UT and TL, respectively, and 0.60 and 0.13 mg m−3 over tropical ocean in the UT and TL, respectively. The MariCont-L region has the greatest ice injection in both the UT and TL (3.34 and 0.42–0.56 mg m−3, respectively). The MariCont-O region has less ice injection than MariCont-L (0.91 mg m−3 in the UT and 0.16–0.34 mg m−3 in TL) but has the highest diurnal minimum value of IWC in the TL (0.34–0.37 mg m−3) among all oceanic zones.

International audience; A careful reading of old articles puts Olivier Pauluis' criticisms concerning the definition of isentropic processes in terms of a potential temperature closely associated with the entropy of moist air, together with the third principle of thermodynamics, into perspective.

Overshoots are convective air parcels that rise beyond their level of neutral buoyancy. A giga-large-eddy simulation (100-m cubic resolution) of ‘‘Hector the Convector,’’ a deep convective system that regularly forms in northern Australia, is analyzed to identify overshoots and quantify the effect of hydration of the stratosphere. In the simulation, 1507 individual overshoots were identified, and 46 of them were tracked over more than 10 min. Hydration of the stratosphere occurs through a sequence of mechanisms: overshoot penetration into the stratosphere, followed by entrainment of stratospheric air and then by efficient turbulent mixing between the air in the overshoot and the entrained warmer air, leaving the subsequent mixed air at about the maximum overshooting altitude. The time scale of these mechanisms is about 1 min. Two categories of overshoots are distinguished: those that significantly hydrate the stratosphere and those that have little direct hydration effect. The former reach higher altitudes and hence entrain and mix with air that has higher potential temperatures. The resulting mixed air has higher temperatures and higher saturation mixing ratios. Therefore, a greater amount of the hydrometeors carried by the original overshoot sublimates to form a persistent vapor-enriched layer. This makes the maximum overshooting altitude the key prognostic for the parameterization of deep convection to represent the correct overshoot transport. One common convection parameterization is tested, and the results suggest that the overshoot downward acceleration due to negative buoyancy is too large relative to that predicted by the numerical simulations and needs to be reduced., StratoClim project funded by the European Union Seventh Framework Programme under Grant Agree- ment 603557 and the Idex Teasao project. Todd Lane is supported by the Australian Research Council’s Centres of Excellence scheme (CE170100023). Computer re- sources were allocated by GENCI through Projects 90569 and 100231 (Grand Challenge Turing).

A large-eddy simulation (LES) was performed for a Hector thunderstorm observed on 30 November 2005 over the Tiwi Islands. On that day, ice particles reaching 19-km altitude were measured. The LES developed overshooting updrafts penetrating the stratosphere that compared well with observations. Much of the water injected in the form of ice particles sublimated in the lower stratosphere. Net hydration was found with a 16% increase in water vapour. While moistening appeared to be robust with respect to the grid spacing used, grid spacing on the order of 100 m may be necessary for a reliable estimate of hydration.

The representation of tropical precipitation is evaluated across three generations of models participating in phases 3, 5, and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Compared to state-of-the-art observations, improvements in tropical precipitation in the CMIP6 models are identified for some metrics, but we find no general improvement in tropical precipitation on different temporal and spatial scales. Our results indicate overall little changes across the CMIP phases for the summer monsoons, the double-ITCZ bias, and the diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation. We find a reduced amount of drizzle events in CMIP6, but tropical precipitation occurs still too frequently. Continuous improvements across the CMIP phases are identified for the number of consecutive dry days, for the representation of modes of variability, namely, the Madden–Julian oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and for the trends in dry months in the twentieth century. The observed positive trend in extreme wet months is, however, not captured by any of the CMIP phases, which simulate negative trends for extremely wet months in the twentieth century. The regional biases are larger than a climate change signal one hopes to use the models to identify. Given the pace of climate change as compared to the pace of model improvements to simulate tropical precipitation, we question the past strategy of the development of the present class of global climate models as the mainstay of the scientific response to climate change. We suggest the exploration of alternative approaches such as high-resolution storm-resolving models that can offer better prospects to inform us about how tropical precipitation might change with anthropogenic warming.