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Three extreme cold events successively occurred across East Asia and North America in 2020/21 winter. This study investigates the underlying mechanisms for these record-breaking persistent cold events from the isentropic mass circulation (IMC) perspective. Results show that the midlatitude cold surface temperature anomalies always cooccurred with the high-latitude warm anomalies, which was closely related to the strengthening of the low-level equatorward cold air branch of IMC, particularly along the climatological cold air routes over East Asia and North America. Specifically, the two cold surges over East Asia in early winter were results of intensification of cold air transport there, influenced by the Arctic sea ice loss in autumn. The weakened cold air transport over North America associated with warmer northeastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) explained the concurrent anomalous warmth there. This enhanced a wavenumber-1 pattern and the upward wave propagation, inducing a simultaneous and long-lasting stronger poleward warm air branch (WB) of IMC in the stratosphere and hence a displacement-type Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) event on January 4. The WB-induced increase in the air mass transported into the polar stratosphere was followed by intensification of the equatorward cold branch and hence promoting the occurrence of two extreme cold events respectively over East Asia in the beginning of January and over North America in February. Results do not yield a robust direct linkage from La Nina to the SSW, IMC changes, and cold events, though the extratropical warm SSTs have contributions to the February cold surge in North America.

Mid-level stratiform precipitations during the passage of warm fronts were detailedly observed on two occasions (light and moderate rain) by a 355 nm polarization lidar and water vapor Raman lidar, both equipped with waterproof transparent roof windows. The hours-long precipitation streaks shown in the lidar signal (X) and volume depolarization ratio (δv) reveal some ubiquitous features of the microphysical process of precipitating hydrometeors. We find that for the light-rain case precipitation that reaches the surface begins as ice-phase-dominant hydrometeors that fall out of a shallow liquid cloud layer at altitudes above the 0 ∘C isotherm level, and the depolarization ratio magnitude of falling hydrometeors increases from the liquid-water values (δv) to the ice/snow values (δv>0.20) during the first 100–200 m of their descent. Subsequently, the falling hydrometeors yield a dense layer with an ice/snow bright band occurring above and a liquid-water bright band occurring below (separated by a lidar dark band) as a result of crossing the 0 ∘C level. The ice/snow bright band might be a manifestation of local hydrometeor accumulation. Most falling raindrops shrink or vanish in the liquid-water bright band due to evaporation, whereas a few large raindrops fall out of the layer. We also find that a prominent δv peak (0.10–0.40) always occurs at an altitude of approximately 0.6 km when precipitation reaches the surface, reflecting the collision–coalescence growth of falling large raindrops and their subsequent spontaneous breakup. The microphysical process (at ice-bright-band altitudes and below) of moderate rain resembles that of the light-rain case, but more large-sized hydrometeors are involved.

We explore the decoupling physics of a stratocumulus-topped boundary layer (STBL) moving over cooler water, a situation mimicking warm-air advection (WADV). We simulate an initially well-mixed STBL over a doubly periodic domain with the sea surface temperature decreasing linearly over time using the System for Atmospheric Modeling large-eddy model. Due to the surface cooling, the STBL becomes increasingly stably stratified, manifested as a near-surface temperature inversion topped by a well-mixed cloud-containing layer. Unlike the stably stratified STBL in cold-air advection (CADV) that is characterized by cumulus coupling, the stratocumulus deck in the WADV is unambiguously decoupled from the sea surface, manifested as weakly negative buoyancy flux throughout the subcloud layer. Without the influxes of buoyancy from the surface, the convective circulation in the well-mixed cloud-containing layer is driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. In such a regime, the downdrafts propel the circulation, in contrast to that in CADV regime for which the cumulus updrafts play a more determinant role. Such a contrast in convection regime explains the difference in many aspects of the STBLs including the entrainment rate, cloud homogeneity, vertical exchanges of heat and moisture, and lifetime of the stratocumulus deck, with the last being subject to a more thorough investigation in Part II. Finally, we investigate under what conditions a secondary stratus near the surface (or fog) can form in the WADV. We found that weaker subsidence favors the formation of fog whereas a more rapid surface cooling rate does not. Significant Statement The low-lying blanketlike clouds, called stratocumulus (Sc), reflect much incoming sunlight, substantially modulating Earth’s temperature. While much is known about how the Sc evolves when it moves over warmer water, few studies examine the opposite situation of Sc moving over colder water. We used a high-resolution numerical model to simulate such a case. When moving over cold water, the Sc becomes unambiguously decoupled from the water surface, distinctive from its warm counterpart in which the Sc interacts with the water surface via intermittent cauliflower-like clouds called cumulus clouds. Such decoupling influences many aspects of the Sc–sea surface system, which combine to alter the ability of the Sc to reflect sunlight, thereby influencing the climate. This work laid the foundation for future work that quantifies the contribution of such a decoupled Sc regime to Earth’s radiative budget and climate change.

High-resolution modeling is implemented to investigate an evolution of two quasi-tropical cyclones (QTC) over the Black Sea: in September of 2005 and 2018. For comparison, the quasi-tropical hurricane Zorba, that developed over the Mediterranean Sea at the end of September 2018, is considered. An assessment of factors leading to the origination and intensification of QTCs is carried out, and the predictability of the phenomenon is studied. The authors tried to reduce the analysis to the parameters obtained directly as a result of mesoscale nonhydrostatic modeling. In all the considered cases, the period of active development of cyclones was preceded by the formation of a core of warm air above the sea surface; the moisture inflow from the lateral boundaries was more important in the moisture balance. It is found that coarser spatial resolution predictions are more successful for large QTCs.

The dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of a dust precipitation event that took place on May 11, 2020 in North China are analyzed. With the invasion of cold air from Lake Baikal (107°E, 53°N), the arid area in the southeast of Mongolia (107°–108°E, 47°–48°N) was in a region with a large potential pseudo-equivalent temperature gradient, where interactions between cold and warm air led to instability of the atmospheric stratification, and became the dust source area. Meanwhile, a low-pressure cyclone formed over the area (122.3°E, 47.5°N) to the east of the dust source area. Under the joint action of the westerlies, the cyclone developed and supplied forces to the vertical ascent and transportation of dust. Strong winds carried the dust along the southeast direction to China. As the cyclone strengthened, the cold and humid air from Lake Baikal arrived and supplied water vapor for precipitation over Beijing. On the whole, the low-pressure cyclone provided momentum and water vapor for this dust–precipitation event. It is found that the horizontal helicity belt can be an indicator for the prediction of the dust transport pathway. The quick increase in surface dust concentration to its peak was closely related to the increase in downward movements in the layers above 700 hPa.

Observations from the 2014 Arctic Clouds in Summer Experiment indicate that, in summer, warm-air advection over melting sea-ice results in a strong surface melting feedback forced by a very strong surface-based temperature inversion and fog formation exerting additional heat flux on the surface. Here, we analyze this case further using a combination of reanalysis dataset and satellite products in a Lagrangian framework, thereby extending the view spatially from the local icebreaker observations into a Langrangian perspective. The results confirm that warm-air advection induces a positive net surface-energy-budget anomaly, exerting positive longwave radiation and turbulent heat flux on the surface. Additionally, as warm and moist air penetrates farther into the Arctic, cloud-top cooling and surface mixing eventually erode the surface inversion downstream. The initial surface inversion splits into two elevated inversions while the air columns below the elevated inversions transform into well-mixed layers.

The current study investigated the triggering mechanism of a record-breaking heavy rain process in the area near the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, an arid region in China, from July 31 to August 1, 2016, based on the simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results illustrated that the rainstorm system was generated in the middle atmosphere of the western Aksu region near the Tianshan Mountains and gradually evolved into a multicell linear echo during system evolution. The cold air transported from the Tianshan Mountains partly reached the low altitudes during the downhill process, and the warm southwest air from Aksu was lifted, forming oblique updraft airflow. The other part of the cold air converged with the southeastern warm air in the middle atmosphere, and the transportation and convergence of the water vapor related to the southwestern, southeastern, and oblique updraft airflows provided good water vapor conditions for the storm system. Meanwhile, the inclined upward air transported cloud water and ice-phase particles to high altitudes, mixing the two and generating a large amount of supercooled cloud water, which was very beneficial for the development and maintenance of the storm system. These conditions were favorable for power, heat, water vapor, and water condensate particles, which enabled the development and maintenance of the rainstorm system on the convergence line, thus triggering this rare rainstorm process during the movement to the northeast.

Extraordinarily frequent and long-lasting snowstorms affected China in January 2008, causing extensive social and economic damages. The potential predictability of such extreme events on the sub-seasonal timescale has been evaluated using results from the hindcast experiments by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model. The spatial distribution of precipitation during the period can be successfully reproduced with a 10–15 days leadtime, although the intensity is weaker than observations. The model’s success lies in the timely prediction of large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, such as the atmospheric blocking over the mid-high latitudes and the southwesterly flow associated with the Bay of Bengal trough in the low latitudes, but the predicted cold air is too strong while the warm air too weak, leading to an underestimation of precipitation along the main rainbelt. Meanwhile, the capture of those circulation anomalies in the initial states and their persistence in subsequent model predictions has played a key role in the predictability of such an extreme event. Detailed analysis has shown that sea surface temperature and low-frequency signals, such as the Arctic Oscillation and the Madden–Julian Oscillation, may also be important during the process.

Summary Data from MERIS onboard Envisat and MODIS onboard Terra and Aqua for 15–16 May 2010 were used to study powerful imprints of atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs) on the western part the Black Sea surface. Two cold fronts crossed the sea following the warm front and caused the AGWs which modulated the sea surface. Imprints of AGWs appeared as stripes of alternating brightness, they had crest length more than a hundred kilometers and wavelength of units of kilometers. Wave amplitude of AGWs imprints, evaluated by a 90%-depth of light penetration into the sea at 490 nm z90, the value inverse to the diffuse attenuation coefficient Kd_490, was units of decimeterxs. MODIS 250-m data of remote sensing reflectance, wind components and atmospheric pressure near the sea surface were obtained by processing the top of atmosphere data with the SeaDAS software package. Negative correlations of fluctuations of z90 with fluctuations of wind stress and atmospheric pressure were found on the transects of more than ten kilometers. The impact of wind stress on the origination of AGW imprints was found to be determinant, while the impact of atmospheric pressure was not more than units of percent.

Warm-sector rainfall (WSR) occurs, by definition, in a warm-air region that is isolated from any forcing related to synoptic frontal boundaries at the surface. This study explores the use of an object-oriented technique to objectively and automatically identify various WSR events over North China from June to September in 2012–17. A total of 768 substantive events are identified over the 6 years. They have a mean maximum rainfall accumulation of 35 mm h−1. Most such events occur over the plains, with two-frequency maxima: one to the south of the Yanshan Mountain Ranges, and the other near the junction of Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu provinces. WSR-related rainstorms can form in all warm-season months but are most commonly observed between mid-July and mid-August (40% of all events occurred then). Geographically, the region at greatest risk moves gradually northward from mid-June to mid-August, consistent with the progression of the East Asian summer monsoon. There are two diurnal peaks in WSR activity, one from late afternoon to early evening and the other from late evening to early morning. Three classes of upper-level synoptic pattern seem to be conducive to WSR: (i) a “Mongolia front pattern,” (ii) a “northern China front pattern,” and (iii) a “southern front pattern.” All of these patterns are accompanied by warm and moist southwesterly flow at low levels. Prior to WSR events, there is usually an upper-level trough. According to other studies, such a feature is not usually seen for WSR events in South China.

A systematic analysis of the main weather types influencing southern Australian rainfall is presented for the period 1979–2015. This incorporates two multi-method datasets of cold fronts and low pressure systems, which indicate the more robust fronts and lows as distinguished from the weaker and less impactful events that are often indicated only by a single method. The front and low pressure system datasets are then combined with a dataset of environmental conditions associated with thunderstorms, as well as datasets of warm fronts and high pressure systems. The results demonstrate that these weather types collectively account for about 86% of days and more than 98% of rainfall in Australia south of 25° S. We also show how the key rain-bearing weather systems vary throughout the year and for different regions, with the co-occurrence of simultaneous lows, fronts and thunderstorm conditions particularly important during the spring and summer months in southeast Australia.

Since the early twentieth century, observations have shown that the ocean surface has warmed almost globally, but the rate of sea surface temperature (SST) rise in the Kuroshio region (KR) has been twice that of the global-mean. This study focuses on the mechanisms driving long-term changes in SST in the KR during the period 1951–2010 using observations, reanalysis data, and 10-member ensembles of historical simulations based on a global climate model (GCM) called MIROC 5.2. The observational data indicates that SST in the KR slightly decreased until around 1980, but rapidly increased afterwards. The MIROC5.2 historical experiment reproduced the observed multidecadal changes in the KR SST, and a signal-to-noise analysis showed that one third to half of the changes were attributable to a forced component, represented by the ensemble mean. Comparison of historical runs with another ensemble in which sulfate aerosols were fixed at preindustrial levels, highlighted that multidecadal SST changes in the KR were primarily driven by sulfate aerosols, contributing to the warming for 1981–2010 as much as greenhouse gases. Analyses of the MIROC5.2 ensemble mean revealed that the key factor for enhanced warming after the 1980s in the KR was a high-pressure trend over the North Pacific. This is because it advects warm air to the northwestern Pacific in the lower troposphere and causes a northward shift in the Kuroshio current. The presence of this mechanism was supported by a significant correlation between SST trends in the KR and high-pressure trends over the North Pacific based on historical simulations from 27 GCMs, and a large ensemble of historical simulations using MIROC6. These results demonstrate the importance of an externally forced atmospheric circulation response over the North Pacific as it relates to enhanced ocean surface warming in the KR.

Flash flooding is an important issue as it has a devastating impact over a short time and in a limited area. However, predicting flash floods is challenging because they are connected to convection systems that rapidly evolve and require a high-resolution forecasting system. In addition, modeling a case study of a mesoscale convective complex (MCC) is the key to improving our understanding of the heavy rainfall systems that trigger flash floods. In this study, we aim at improving modeling skills to simulate a heavy rainfall system related to flash-flood-producing MCCs. We simulated a heavy rainfall event related to a severe flash flood in Luwu, Sulawesi, Indonesia, on 13 July 2020. This flood was preceded by persistent heavy rainfall from 11 to 13 July 2020. In this case, we investigated the role of sea surface temperature (SST) in producing the persistent heavy rainfall over the region. Therefore, we explore the physical and dynamic processes that caused the heavy rainfall using a convection-permitting model with 1 km resolution and an experiment comparing the situation with and without updated SST. The results show that the heavy rainfall was modulated by the development of a pair of MCCs during the night. The pair of MCCs was triggered by a meso-low-pressure system with an anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly over the Makassar Strait and was maintained by the warm front passing between the sea and land over central Sulawesi. This front was characterized by moist–warm and cold–dry low-level air, which may have helped extend the lifetime of the MCCs. The north-westward propagation of the MCCs was due to the interaction between predominantly a south-easterly monsoon and SST anomalies. This study suggested that the long-lived (&gt, 10 h) MCCs (&gt, 80,000 km2 cloud shield) and persistent precipitation are reproduced well in the updated SST scenario in the WRF model. This relatively simple technique in the running model provides a new strategy for improving flash flood forecasting by better predicting rainfall as an input in the hydrological model. Our findings also indicated a long-lived MCC maintained by back-building mechanisms from night to morning inland as an exceptional MCC, which does not correspond to a previous study.

A large-scale wildland fire occurred in Sakha in 2021. The results of fire analysis showed that the total number of hotspots in 2021 exceeded 267,000. This is about 5.8 times the average number of fires over the last 19 years since 2002. The largest daily number of hotspots in 2021 was 16,226, detected on 2 August. On 7 August, about half of the daily hotspots (52.6% = 8175/15,537 × 100) were detected in a highest fire density area (HFA, 62.5–65° N, 125–130° E) near Yakutsk under strong southeasterly wind (wind velocity about 12 m/s (43 km/h)). The results of weather analysis using various weather maps are as follows: The large meandering westerlies due to stagnant low-pressure systems in the Barents Sea brought high-pressure systems and warm air masses from the south to high latitudes, creating warm, dry conditions that are favorable conditions for fire. In addition to these, strong southeasterly winds at lower air levels blew which were related to the development of high-pressure systems in the Arctic Ocean. The HFA was located in the strong wind region (>8 m/s) of the v-wind map. The record-breaking Sakha fire season of 2021 is an example of extreme phenomena wrought by rapid climate change.

This study investigates the dynamics of the development phases of a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone (medicane) in the southern Ionian Sea, on 28 September 2018 that caused high impact phenomena in the central and eastern Mediterranean, focusing on the transition from explosive cyclone to medicane. The symmetry and the warm core structure of the system have been demonstrated via phase space diagrams determining three phases of the system development that are then supported on a dynamical basis. During the first phase of the system, baroclinic instability triggered the formation of the explosive cyclone, when strong upper-level PV anomalies at the dynamic tropopause level moved towards a pre-existed area of enhanced low-level baroclinicity over the coastal areas of Libya along with positive SST anomalies. The surface frontal structure was enhanced under the influence of the upper-level dynamic processes. During the second phase when the medicane formed, low-level diabatic processes determined the evolution of the surface cyclone, without any significant support from baroclinic processes in the upper troposphere. The distortion of the low-level baroclinicity and the frontal structure began after the initial weakening of the upper-level dynamics. During the third phase, the system remained barotropic, being affected by similar mechanisms as in the second phase but with lower intensity. The transition mechanism is not only the result of the seclusion of warm air in the cyclone core but, mainly, the continuation of an explosive cyclone or an intense cyclone when the occlusion began to form.

The August Asian–Pacific Oscillation (APO) plays an important role in the variability of autumn (September ~ October mean) precipitation in central eastern China (CEC). Using observational and reanalysis data, the impact of the August APO on autumn CEC precipitation from 1960 to 2016 was studied. The statistical result showed that August APO is closely linked to the autumn precipitation anomalies in CEC with a significant positive correlation (r = 0.45). Further analysis revealed that when the APO is strong, the strengthened East Asian trough and the North Pacific high / vertical shear occur in the mid-lower / upper troposphere, resulting in anomalous southerly along the East Asia coast, which are favorable for strengthening the anomalous convergence and upward movement of moist warm air from the northwestern Pacific and arid cold air from the north China, introducing more precipitation, but that this configuration became much diminished during weak APO years. The possible mechanism can be explained as the thermal effect in the mid-upper troposphere can last from August until autumn, and the corresponding concurrent thermal effect would lead to anomalies in both atmospheric circulation and precipitation. Additionally, though an evidently negative relationship between preceding Nino indices and autumn CEC precipitation was revealed, the August APO induced changes in autumn CEC precipitation is greater than those of Nino indices, whether interannual or interdecadal changes, further indicating that the APO is an effective signal for precipitation prediction in CEC.

This article reviews synoptic extratropical cyclone research starting from the skilfully constructed conceptual diagrams of the Bergen school in the 1920s. Careful analysis of multiple surface observations allowed Norwegian scientists to deduce the existence of cold and warm fronts and to characterise a complete cyclone lifecycle. Since then, new observing systems and advances in computational capabilities have enabled scientific research which has greatly expanded and enriched our knowledge of extratropical cyclone structure and evolution.

High-resolution numerical simulation results of a squall line initiated along a convergence zone in northeast China on 26 June 2014 were presented in this study. The simulation was performed by a convection-permitting model with coarse and fine grids of 4 and 1.33 km, respectively, and the simulation results were validated against the observation. Results showed that the simulation adequately reproduced the life cycle of the squall line, which allowed detailed investigation of the mechanism of convective initiation in this case. The synoptic condition was favorable for convective initiation and the convection was triggered in a convergence zone, where a branch of dry and cold air and a branch of moist and warm air collided. The water vapor flux divergence was inhomogeneous and some cores of water vapor convergence existed in the convergence zone. These cores were the spots where water vapor converged intensely and the air there was forced to rise, creating favorable spots where the convection was initially triggered. A series of quasi-equally spaced vortices near the surface, which themselves were the result of horizontal shear instability, were accountable for the inhomogeneity of the surface water vapor flux divergence. These vortices rotated the moist air into their north and dry air into their south, thus creating more favorable spots for convective initiation in their north. After initiation, the updraft turned the horizontal vorticity into vertical vorticity in the mid-level. The vortices near the surface collaborated with the vorticity maxima in the mid-level and enhanced the development of convection by providing water vapor.

This study addresses the role of the atmospheric moisture budget in determining the onset and development of summer droughts over the North American Great Plains (GP) using two state-of-the-art reanalysis datasets. We identified zonal moisture advection as the main cause of severe tropospheric drying during the extreme droughts in the southern GP in 2011 and northern GP in 2012. For both events, the eastward advection of anomalously dry and warm air in the free troposphere in spring set the stage for summer drought. This led to a sharp drop in relative humidity above the boundary layer, enhancing dry entrainment and suppressing deep convection. Further breakdown of the zonal advection into dynamic (caused by circulation anomalies) and thermodynamic (caused by moisture anomalies) contributions reveals dominance of thermodynamic advection in the tropospheric drying observed during the onset of both 2011 and 2012 droughts. The dependence of thermodynamic advection on the moisture gradient links springtime precipitation in the Rockies and southwestern US, the source region of the anomalous dry advection, to the GP summer precipitation (with correlations > 0.4 using gauge-based data). Identifying this previously overlooked precursor of the GP summer droughts improves our predictive understanding of drought onset mechanisms over the region.

Over the tropical oceans, the large-scale, meridional circulation drives the accumulation of moist and warm air, leading to a relatively narrow, convectively active band. Therein, deep moist convection interacts with its heterogeneous environment—the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ)—and organizes into multiscale structures that strongly impact Earth’s hydrological cycle and radiation budget. Understanding the spatial correlations and interactions among deep convective clouds is important, but challenging. These clouds are investigated in this study with the help of large-domain, storm-resolving simulations over the tropical Atlantic. Based on vertically integrated mass flux fields, deep convective updraft cells are identified with object-based techniques and analyzed with respect to their structural behavior and spatial arrangement. The pair-correlation method, which compares simulated pair numbers as a function of pair distance to an appropriately chosen reference, is applied and extended to allow for spatial statistics in a heterogeneous environment (i.e., the ITCZ). Based on pair-correlation analysis, the average probability is enhanced to find an updraft cell pair within 100 km compared to a random distribution. Additionally, the spatial arrangement of larger or stronger cells deviates more from randomness compared to smaller or weaker cells, which might be related to their stronger dynamical interaction mechanisms. Using simplified equilibrium statistics of interacting cells, several spatial characteristics of the storm-resolving simulations can be reproduced.

The interdecadal variations in extratropical anticyclone activity over East Asia during the winters of 1958–2013 were analysed using an objective identification and tracking algorithm for anticyclones. The influence of the interdecadal variation in anticyclone activity over the Mongolian Plateau on the interdecadal variation in East Asian surface air temperature and its possible mechanism was studied. The results showed that the Mongolian Plateau is the key region of anticyclonic activity in East Asia, and the occurrence frequency of anticyclones presented significantly opposite distribution forms in the higher and lower latitudes. An abrupt change in anticyclone activity over the Mongolian Plateau occurred in the late 1970s. From 1958 to the late 1970s, the main anticyclone activity occurred farther northward, whereas the activity was farther southward from the 1980s to 2013. Further study showed that in the period when the anticyclone occurrence frequency in the higher latitudes north of 50°N was lower (higher), while that in the lower latitudes south of 50°N was higher (lower), the surface air temperature of most parts of East Asia, especially the middle and high latitudes, was abnormally high (low). This was due to the anticyclonic activities, the Siberian high faded in the northwest part and expanded in southeast, while the East Asia trough and Ural Mountain blocking high weakened. This was also manifested as the variation in the geopotential height tendency forcing by transient waves. As the anticyclonic wave-breaking intensifies from western Mongolia to Northeast China, the high-frequency momentum flux over this area was significantly enhanced, strengthening the west wind in the higher latitudes from the north side and weakening the west wind in the middle latitudes from the south side. Under the combined force of the above activity, the southward movement of polar cold air was weakened, and the warm air in the middle and low latitudes was more easily transported to the north, resulting in warmer surface air temperatures over most parts of East Asia.

During 10–12 June 2012, heavy rainfall occurred three days in a row in southern and central Taiwan, with daily rainfall maxima exceeding 500 mm on each day. In the Mei-yu season (May–June) during 1993–2000, only two other rainfall events had a comparable amount and duration, but this case was the only one that occurred well before the arrival of the Mei-yu front. The synoptic conditions and their evolution leading to this unique event are thus important and are the foci of this study. Our analysis indicates that the 10–12 June 2012 event in Taiwan was caused by the strong and persistent west-southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ) that transported warm, moist, and unstable air from upstream and then impinged on the island. The LLJ developed due to the enhanced horizontal pressure (or height) gradient when the pressure at low-levels fell significantly (by ~8 hPa) in South China (north of the jet) during 8–10 June, but the subtropical high to the southeast maintained its strength. Further, through a diagnosis using the pressure tendency equation, it is found that both warm air advection and the dynamic effects (column divergence and transport of mass by vertical motion) contributed to the pressure fall in South China. The warm air advection occurred in the southern part of a large-scale confluent pattern in China, and the persistent west-southwesterly flow through deep layer (mainly above 800 hPa) in South China transported warmer and less dense air into the region from lower latitudes. On the other hand, South China was also located under the diffluent zone in the northeastern quadrant of the South Asian upper-level anticyclone, which strengthened during 5–10 June and provided divergence aloft, which exceeded the low-level convergence and upward transport of mass (at a fixed height) into the column by vertical motion on 9 June. As a result, the dynamic effects also contributed to the pressure fall, although secondary to the warm air advection. The destabilization process in South China during 8–10 June was also helpful to increase convective activity and upper-level divergence.

The Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ) is a contributing factor to the initiation and evolution of nocturnal Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) in the central United States by supplying moisture, warm air advection, and a source of convergence. Thus, the ability of models to correctly depict thermodynamics in the LLJ likely influences how accurately they forecast MCSs. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to examine the relationship between spatial displacement errors for initiating simulated MCSs, and errors in forecast thermodynamic variables up to three hours before downstream MCS initiation in 18 cases. Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) analyses in 3 layers below 1500 m above ground level were used to represent observations. Correlations between simulated MCS initiation spatial displacements and errors in the magnitude of forecast thermodynamic variables were examined in regions near and upstream of both observed and simulated MCSs, and were found to vary depending on the synoptic environment. In strongly-forced cases, large negative moisture errors resulted in simulated MCSs initiating further downstream with respect to the low-level flow from those observed. For weakly-forced cases, correlations were weaker, with a tendency for smaller negative moisture errors to be associated with larger displacement errors to the right of the inflow direction for initiating MCSs.

An extreme snowstorm event that occurred over Heilongjiang and Jilin Provinces on 24&ndash, 26 November 2013 was related to a cyclone characterized by a back-bent occluded front structure. This study investigates the structure of the back-bent occluded front and snowfall mechanism using multiple observations and NCEP/NCAR 1&deg, &times, 1&deg, reanalysis data in concert with the HYSPLIT model. The main results show that the extreme event was more synoptically governed by the outbreak of the polar vortex and moisture anomaly of the East Sea. The cyclone occurred just ahead of the 500-hPa merged deep trough, and then developed under the effect of the positive vorticity advection ahead of the 500-hPa trough and intense divergence of the upper-level jet. The south-southwest wind strengthened obviously after the merger of the southern and northern branch troughs, which was the main reason behind the cyclone moving northward. The moisture mainly originated from the Sea of Japan, insofar as that dry and cold air in the lower troposphere over the western mainland moistened obviously as it turned southward and passed over the Bohai Sea and the Sea of Japan, supplying abundant moisture for the snowstorm event. The intensity of moisture transport depended on the location and intensity of the cyclone. When the cyclone developed, the dry air continuously intruded into the cyclone&rsquo, s center, and made a conveyor belt of warm air wrap around it. The dry air gradually changed from descending to ascending motion as it moved ahead of the westerly trough, while the moist air in the northern part of the cyclone moved to the west and south and incorporated into the south of the cyclone center. Warm and moist air was lifted and arrived in the northwestern part of the cyclone after the occluded front&rsquo, s formation. Frontogenesis within the comma head was enhanced evidently owing to the rotation and deformation. The convergence between the southeast and northeast winds resulted in intense frontogenesis, leading to the enhancement of the front-scale ascent. Strong ascent formed in the comma head of the cyclone, which resulted in intense snowfall.

Atmospheric rivers induced sea ice melt and initiated the two major Weddell Polynya events in November 1973 and September 2017., This study reports the occurrence of intense atmospheric rivers (ARs) during the two large Weddell Polynya events in November 1973 and September 2017 and investigates their role in the opening events via their enhancement of sea ice melt. Few days before the polynya openings, persistent ARs maintained a sustained positive total energy flux at the surface, resulting in sea ice thinning and a decline in sea ice concentration in the Maud Rise region. The ARs were associated with anomalously high amounts of total precipitable water and cloud liquid water content exceeding 3 SDs above the climatological mean. The above-normal integrated water vapor transport (IVT above the 99th climatological percentile), as well as opaque cloud bands, warmed the surface (+10°C in skin and air temperature) via substantial increases (+250 W m−2) in downward longwave radiation and advection of warm air masses, resulting in sea ice melt and inhibited nighttime refreezing.

This study explored the spatio-temporal patterns of meteorological drought change and the mechanisms of drought occurrence in Yulin City of the northern Shaanxi by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and composite analysis based on the meteorological observation data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1961 to 2015. The main findings of the research are as follows: (1) In the annual and seasonal drought series, there is a non-significant trend toward drought in summer, while there are non-significant trends toward wetness for the other series. Overall, the frequency of drought is low in the southeast and high in the west and the north of the study area. (2) EOF1 is characterized by a uniform pattern in the whole region, i.e., there is a feature of consistent drought or flood in Yulin City. EOF2, EOF3 and EOF4 mainly indicate opposite characteristics of the changes of floods and droughts in the eastern/western parts and the southeast/other parts in the study area. (3) In the summer of the typical drought (flood) years, the study area is controlled by the northwest airflow behind the trough (zonal airflow at the bottom of low-pressure trough), and the meridional circulation (zonal circulation) is distributed in the mid-latitudes, which is conducive to the intrusion of cold air into the south (north) of China. The cold and warm air intersection area is to the south (to the north). The water vapor flux is weak (strong) and the water vapor divergence (convergence) prohibits (enhances) the precipitation process in the study area.

Data on internal gravity and infrasound waves recorded during the passage of both warm and cold fronts throughout Moscow, which are associated with the atmospheric storm of May 29, 2017, are given. These waves were recorded by four microbarographs located in the city of Moscow and Moscow region (and marked IFA, MGU, MSR, and ZNS in Fig. 1) and the data obtained were compared with data on infrasound waves recorded at the IS43 station in the town of Dubna. Time variations in the characteristics of internal gravity and infrasound waves (coherence, propagation azimuths, phase velocities, characteristic periods, and frequency spectra) during the passage of both warm and cold fronts are studied. The transition from the gravity to acoustic dispersive branch of acoustic-gravity waves due to increasing frequency and the temporal modulation of the phase velocity of infrasound waves due to internal gravity waves (IGWs) are also studied. Data on both aerosol (PM10) and gas (NO2) concentrations measured at different Moscow stations during the approaching atmospheric storm are given. The possibility of detecting wave precursors of atmospheric storms in simultaneous variations in atmospheric pressure, wind velocity, and pollutant concentrations is studied.

We revisit the various stratosphere–troposphere coupling relation from the perspective of the meridional mass circulation. We constructed 10-hPa northern annular mode (NAM) phase composites to show the typical spatiotemporal evolution of circulation anomalies during the NAM’s life cycle. Our results indicate that there is large case-to-case difference in the temporal evolution and vertical profile of polar temperature anomalies during NAM events, which shows no strong dependence on the intensity and duration of NAM events, but agrees well with the variations of the three branches of mass circulation at 60°N: the stratospheric poleward warm air branch (ST), the poleward warm air branch in the upper troposphere (WB), and the equatorward cold air branch in the lower troposphere (CB). Such correspondence is due to the dynamic heating and cooling anomalies associated with the redistribution of air masses by the anomalous meridional mass circulation in different isentropic layers. The various relationship among the three mass circulation branches is attributed to anomalous wave activities. The amplitude and westward tilt of waves are always stronger (weaker) throughout the stratosphere before (after) the peak time of negative NAM events, leading to a stronger (weaker) ST before (after) the peak time. Variations in WB and CB are mostly dependent on wave variabilities in the mid- to lower troposphere, leading to variations in the timing of in- or out-of-phase coupling of the ST with the WB and CB, and thus various thermostructure during NAM events. At a later stage of the negative NAM events when the polar temperature becomes colder and the polar jet recovers, the weakened baroclinic instability in the lower stratosphere provides favorable conditions for the strengthening of the WB and CB if wave activities strengthen in the troposphere during that period.

Using ERA-Interim reanalysis daily data and gridded precipitation dataset, the evolution mechanism of East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern and its relationship to summer precipitation in China were investigated on synoptic timescales based on EOF analysis, composite analysis, and significance test. The results demonstrate that the evolution of synoptic-scale EAP pattern is identified as having a significant relationship with the energy propagation represented by the wave-activity flux (WAF). Such EAP-related WAFs show various features in different levels of the troposphere. In the lower troposphere, the WAF primarily points poleward from the Philippines, playing a vital role in triggering and maintaining the synoptic-scale EAP pattern. A middle tropospheric zonally distributed ridge/trough/ridge wave train provides a favorable westerly waveguide for the southeastward (eastward) energy propagation, converging with a relatively weak poleward WAF over mid-latitude (high-latitude) East Asia. Moreover, the upper-level EAP-related anomalies are partly influenced by two conspicuous eastward WAFs. One may favor the development of Okhotsk anticyclonic (positive) anomaly, and the other one related to the Silk-Road (SR) wave train along the Asian jet converges into the cyclonic (negative) anomaly to greatly strengthen it. Particularly, the highly efficient baroclinic energy conversion responsible for the self-maintenance of SR pattern is also crucial for reinforcing and maintaining this cyclonic anomaly for a prolonged period by extraction of available potential energy from basic flow. In addition, during EAP pattern lifetime, due to the strong moisture flux convergence and upper-level divergence, the long-lasting strong ascents of moist/warm air along a moist and thick layer, therefore induce the summer consecutive extreme precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River.

One observed fingerprint of Pacific Arctic environmental change, induced by climate warming and amplified local feedbacks, is a shift toward earlier onset of sea ice melt. Shorter freeze periods impact the melt season energy balance with cascading effects on ecological productivity and human presence in the region. Through this study, a non-linear technique, self-organizing maps, is utilized to investigate the subseasonal role of regional pressure patterns and associated lower-tropospheric wind regimes on melt onset in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. Focus is directed on the frequency and duration (≥ 3 consecutive days) of offshore, onshore, and zonal/weak flow that tend to precede anomalous (late and early) and average times of melt. Background North Pacific climate forcing ascribed from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase and Bering Strait oceanic heat flux measurements provide a surface thermal context to the composite wind fields. In early melt onset years, onshore (northerly) winds occur approximately 1–3 fewer days with offsetting increases in zonal and offshore flow in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. During these cases, the Beaufort High pattern tends to set-up more frequently around the southeastern Beaufort Sea region, yielding winds of a southerly and/or easterly nature that are enhanced by cyclone activity to the south or downstream. Chukchi Sea weather analyses, in particular, suggest that interacting, precursor mechanisms involving warm air advection off snow-free Arctic lands and from southerly latitudes coupled with a slightly positive PDO state and anomalous, poleward oceanic heat transfer condition the seasonal ice pack for increasingly early melt.

The aim of the research was to identify connections between the occurrence of heat load across Poland and large-scale factors, which will allow statistical models to be derived that are useful to describe bioclimatic conditions in Poland in the summer. Atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic Ocean and Europe and near-surface air temperature over the central part of Europe were considered. The monthly frequency of the occurrence of combined “moderate, strong, very strong and extreme heat stress” based on the assessment scale of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) in the summer months accounted for 6% to more than 30% of all cases. The statistical downscaling procedure of canonical correlation analysis (CCA) with respect to the period 1971–2000 was applied to extract the main modes of large-scale factors and their local responses. The greatest explained variance of local field response to atmospheric circulation as well as to near-surface air temperature is above 70%. Warm air flow from the east and from the southeast has the strongest influence on the increase in frequency of the occurrence of heat stress on human beings in Poland. The spatial differentiation of the air temperature anomaly over central Europe is an important determinant of the occurrence of heat stress in Poland. The validation of constructed models encompassed the periods 1951–1970 and 2001–2010. The best reliability of results was reached for the reconstructed series in July. The results are less useful in June and August and in the coastal region.

September sea ice concentration (SIC) is found to be most sensitive to the early melt onset over the East Siberian Sea and Laptev Sea (73°–84°N, 90°–155°) in the Arctic, a region defined here as the area of focus (AOF). The areal initial melt date for a given year is marked when sea ice melting extends beyond 10% of the AOF size. With this definition, four early melting years (1990, 2012, 2003, 1991) and four late melting years (1996, 1984, 1983, 1982) were selected. The impacts and feedbacks of atmospheric physical and dynamical variables on the Arctic SIC variations were investigated for the selected early and late melting years based on the NASA MERRA-2 reanalysis. The sea ice melting tends to happen in a shorter period of time with larger magnitude in late melting years, while the melting lasts longer and tends to be more temporally smooth in early melting years. The first major melting event in each year has been further investigated and compared. In the early melting years, the positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) phase is dominant during springtime, which is accompanied by intensified atmospheric transient eddy activities in the Arctic and enhanced moisture flux convergence in the AOF and consequently enhanced northward transport of moist and warm air. As a result, positive anomalies of air temperature, precipitable water vapor (PWV) and/or cloud fraction and cloud water path were found over the AOF, increasing downward longwave radiative flux at the surface. The associated warming effect further contributes to the initial melt of sea ice. In contrast, the late melt onset is usually linked to the negative AO phase in spring accompanied with negative anomalies of PWV and downward longwave flux at the surface. The increased downward shortwave radiation during middle to late June plays a more important role in triggering the melting, aided further by the stronger than normal cloud warming effects.

This study investigates the role of large-scale and local-scale processes associated with heat waves using two reanalysis products, and evaluates the performance of the regional climate model ensemble used in the North America Regional Climate Change Program (NARCCAP) in reproducing these processes. The Continental US is divided into eight different climate divisions to investigate different mechanisms associated with heat waves. At the large scale, heat waves are associated with terrestrial warm air advection to the Northeast, Midwest and Northern Great Plains, and with oceanic warm air advection for the Southeast and Southern Great Plains. Over the western US, reduced maritime cool air advection results in local warming. At the local scale, antecedent precipitation deficits lead to the continuous drying of soil, more net radiative energy is partitioned into sensible heat flux and acts to warm surface air temperature, especially over the Great Plains. NARCCAP-simulated large-scale meteorological patterns and temporal evolution of antecedent local scale terrestrial conditions are shown to be very similar to those of the reanalysis products. Even though extreme temperature is overestimated by the NARCCAP ensemble over the US, different heat wave metrics are realistically represented both in terms of the inter-annual variability and spatial representation. However, NARCCAP overestimates the magnitude of heatwaves over the Northeast, Midwest and Northern Great Plains, partially due to anomalous heat advection through large-scale forcing.

The structural evolution of Typhoon Morakot (2009) during its passage across Taiwan was investigated with the WRF model. When Morakot approached eastern Taiwan, the low-level center was gradually filled by the Central Mountain Range (CMR), while the outer wind had flowed around the northern tip of the CMR and met the southwesterly monsoon to result in a strong confluent flow over the southern Taiwan Strait. When the confluent flow was blocked by the southern CMR, a secondary center (SC) without a warm core formed over southwestern Taiwan. During the northward movement of the SC along the west slope of the CMR, the warm air produced within the wake flow over the northwestern CMR was continuously advected into the SC, contributing to the generation of a warm core inside the SC. Consequently, a well-defined SC with a warm core, closed circulation and almost symmetric structure was produced over central western Taiwan, and then it coupled with Morakot’s mid-level center after crossing the CMR to reestablish a new and vertically stacked typhoon. Therefore, the SC inside Morakot was initially generated by a dynamic interaction among the TC’s cyclonic wind, southwesterly wind and orographic effects of the CMR, while the thermodynamic process associated with the downslope adiabatic warming effect documented by previous studies supported its development to be a well-defined SC. In summary, the evolution of the SC in this study is not in contradiction with previous studies, but just a complement, especially in the initial formation stage.

From July 6th to August 5th of 2014, a severe heatwave happened in Iran. This study analysis the formation and relative effect of this heatwave event on the environmental situation in the Karaj city (west of Iran capital). This city has experienced warm summers and high amounts of heat-related mortality. This research is accomplished according to the statistical-synoptic-approach and mobile survey data. Two main data sets are collected during this event from 20 stations in the urban and rural areas. The results of data are derived from hierarchical cluster analysis by using Ward's method. Analysis of mid-level synoptic charts demonstrate a low pressure at ground level in North West of India (Gange's thermal low pressure) which covers the case study area together with a high-pressure system that dominates in the middle levels. This phenomenon affects the thickness of the atmosphere and causes warm air subsidence, abnormal air heating and a stable urban heat island (UHI) in the region. Compared to the rural areas, the temperature of the city is about 1 °C warmer within the day times and up to 2.5 °C warmer at nights. Furthermore in comparison with the rural areas, in urban environment the temperature value combination of surrounding humidity stations, determined systematically warmer status. This intensity of UHI is the simplest and most quantitative indicator of the thermal modification imposed by the Karaj city upon its territory, and shows its relative warming compared to the surrounding rural environment at night times.

A freezing rain event, in which the Meteorological Centre of Canada’s 2.5-km numerical weather prediction system significantly underpredicted the quantity of freezing rain, is examined. The prediction system models precipitation types explicitly, directly from the Milbrandt–Yau microphysics scheme. It was determined that the freezing rain underprediction for this case was due primarily to excessive refreezing of rain, originating from melting snow and graupel, in and under the temperature inversion of the advancing warm front ultimately depleting the supply of rain reaching the surface. The refreezing was caused from excessive collisional freezing between rain and graupel. Sensitivity experiments were conducted to examine the effects of a temperature threshold for collisional freezing and on varying the values of the collection efficiencies between rain and ice-phase hydrometeors. It was shown that by reducing the rain–graupel collection efficiency and by imposing a temperature threshold of −5°C, above which collisional freezing is not permitted, excessive rain–graupel collection and graupel formation can be controlled in the microphysics scheme, leading to an improved simulation of freezing rain at the surface.

Profiles of periodic GPS Radiosonde ascends collected from a station at the west coast of India (Goa) during summer monsoon months (June to September) of 2009 and 2013 have been used to analyze the thermal inversion statistics at various heights and their repercussions on the regional weather is studied. The interaction of contrasting air masses over the northern Arabian Sea often produces a two layer structure in the lower 5000 m close to the coastal station with warm and dusty air (Summer Shamal) occupying the space above the cool and moist Low Level Jet (LLJ) by virtue of their density differences. The warm air intrusion creates low lapse rate pockets above LLJ and modifies the gravitational stability strong enough to inhibit convection. It is observed that the inversion occurring in the lower 3000 m layer with an optimum layer thickness of 100–200 m has profound influence on the weather beneath it. We demonstrated the validity of the proposed hypothesis by analyzing the collocated data from radiosonde, lidar and the rain gauge during 16th July 2013 as a case study. The lidar depolarization ratio provides evidence to support the two layer structure in the lidar backscatter image. The presence of dust noticed in the two layer interface hints the intrusion of warm air that makes the atmosphere stable enough to suppress convection. The daily rainfall record of 2013 surprisingly coincides with the patterns of a regional break like situation centered at 16th July 2013 in Goa.

The frequency and the intensity of extreme temperature events have both increased globally because of the effects of climate warming. Such extreme events should be distinct in high-elevation areas owing to the phenomenon of elevation-dependent warming; however, corroborating evidence remains limited because of scarce observations. This study used the percentile method to identify annual extreme temperature events recorded in the δ18O of the Laohugou ice core (1960–2006) retrieved from the high-elevation area of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (NETP). Comparison of these events with synchronous observations obtained at surrounding meteorological stations indicated that extreme temperature events identified from the ice core corresponded well with most temperature observations from the meteorological stations, suggesting that the δ18O record could be considered a reasonable proxy for regional temperature. However, occasional discord between the ice core and station records might reflect specific climatic shifts. Using circulation synthesis, the influencing circulation mechanism of each event was determined on the basis of differences in atmospheric parameters between each event and the average climatic state during 1970–2000. A double blocking high with warming over the Ural Mountains and east of Kuril–Kamchatka resulted in Eurasian warming, which transported warm air to the NETP and triggered the extreme high-temperature events. Conversely, a polar vortex in the Arctic led to a cold low over Eurasia, which transported cold air to the NETP causing extreme low-temperature events. The finding that variation of the Arctic air mass triggers extreme temperature events at high elevations in the NETP provides crucial insight for improved comprehension and forecasting of regional extreme temperature events.

A severe, prolonged and harmful regional heavy air pollution episode occurred in eastern China from December 2016 to January 2017. In this paper, the pollutant characteristics and the meteorological formation mechanism of this pollution event, including climate anomalies, surface weather conditions, planetary boundary layer structure and large-scale circulation features, were analysed based on observational pollution data, surface meteorological data, sounding data and ERA-Interim reanalysis data. The results are as follows. (1) Five pollution stages were identified in eastern China. The two most severe episodes occurred from December 27, 2016 to January 4, 2017 and from January 8 to 12 2017. During these two pollution episodes, fine mode particles were major contributors, and hourly PM2.5 concentrations often exceeded 150 μg/m3, reaching a maximum of 333 μg/m3 at Fuyang station. Gaseous pollutants were transformed into secondary aerosols through heterogeneous reactions on the surface of PM2.5. (2) Compared with the same period over the years 2000–2016, 2017 presented meteorological field climate anomalies in conjunction with unfavourable surface conditions (weak winds, high relative humidity, fewer hours of sunshine, high cloud cover) and adverse atmospheric circulation (weak East Asian winter monsoon and an abnormal geopotential height of 500 hPa), which caused poorer visibility in 2017 than in the other analysed years. (3) During the development of heavy pollution event, unfavourable surface weather conditions, including poorer visibility, weaker pressure, higher relative humidity, lower wind speed with unfavourable wind direction and less precipitation suppressed the horizontal diffusion ability of air pollutants. Furthermore, the unfavourable structure of the atmospheric boundary layer was the key cause of the rapid PM2.5 increase. The deep, strong temperature inversion layer and weak vertical wind velocity could have suppressed vertical motion and enhanced the stability of the near-surface atmosphere, causing the air pollutants to accumulate at low levels and exacerbating the air pollution problem. Finally, a persistent stagnant weather system with a weak geopotential height field of 1000 hPa and warm air advection at 850 hPa was the main feature of atmospheric circulation associated with the heavy pollution.

On the basis of observational data on daily mean surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents Sea (BS), the characteristics of strong positive and negative winter SAT anomalies in Moscow have been studied in comparison with BS SIC data obtained in 1949–2016. An analysis of surface backward trajectories of air-particle motions has revealed the most probable paths of both cold and warm air invasions into Moscow and located regions that mostly affect strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow. Atmospheric circulation anomalies that cause strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow have been revealed. Changes in the ways of both cold and warm air invasions have been found, as well as an increase in the frequency of blocking anticyclones in 2005–2016 when compared to 1970–1999. The results suggest that a winter SIC decrease in the BS in 2005–2016 affects strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow due to an increase in the frequency of occurrence of blocking anticyclones to the south of and over the BS.

In this article, the synoptic-scale spatial structures for raising tornadic and hail storms are compared by analyzing the total and anomalous variable fields from the troposphere to the stratosphere. 15 cases of tornado outbreaks and 20 cases of hail storms that occurred in the central United States during 1980–2011 were studied. The anomalous temperature–height field shows that a tornadic or hail storm usually occurs at the boundary of anomalous warm and cold air masses horizontally in the troposphere. In one side, an anomalous warm air mass in the mid-low troposphere and an anomalous cold air mass in the stratosphere are vertically separated by a positive center of height anomalies at the upper troposphere. In another side, an opposite vertical pattern shows that an anomalous cold air mass in the mid-low troposphere and an anomalous warm air mass in the stratosphere are separated by a negative center of height anomalies at the upper troposphere. Therefore, two pairs of adjacent anomalous warm/cold centers and one pair of anomalous high/low centers combining together form a major tornadic or hail storm paradigm, which can be physically considered as the storage of anomalous potential energy (APE) to generate severe weather. To quantitatively measure the APE, we define an index of anomalous convective instability (ACI) which is a difference of integrating temperature anomalies based on two vertically opposite anomalous air masses. The APE transformation to anomalous kinetic energy, which reduces horizontal and vertical gradients of temperature anomalies, produces anomalous rising and sinking flows in the lower-layer anomalous warm and cold air mass sides, respectively. The intensity of ACI index for tornadic storm cases is 1.5 times larger than that of hail storm cases in average. Thus, this expression of anomalous variables is better than total variables used in the traditional synoptic chart and the ACI index is better than other indices to detect potential tornadic and hail storms in order to understand the environmental conditions affecting severe weather in analytical and model output datasets.

Year-to-year variations in summer precipitation have great socioeconomic impacts on China. Historical rainfall variability over China is investigated using a newly released high-resolution dataset. The results reveal summer-mean rainfall anomalies associated with ENSO that are anchored by mountains in central China east of the Tibetan Plateau. These orographically anchored hot spots of ENSO influence are poorly represented in coarse-resolution datasets so far in use. In post–El Niño summers, an anomalous anticyclone forms over the tropical northwest Pacific, and the anomalous southwesterlies on the northwest flank cause rainfall to increase in mountainous central China through orographic lift. At upper levels, the winds induce additional adiabatic updraft by increasing the eastward advection of warm air from Tibet. In post–El Niño summers, large-scale moisture convergence induces rainfall anomalies elsewhere over flat eastern China, which move northward from June to August and amount to little in the seasonal mean.

We explore the interannual variability of summertime extratropical transient activity and assess its influence on rainfall over southeastern South America focusing on Uruguay. Transient wave activity is characterized calculating the group velocity using daily mean meridional velocity at 300 hPa. It is found that transient activity shows strong interannual variability consisting in patterns that represent a strengthening of wave activity in the subtropical Pacific, and meridional shifts in the position of the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks. Part of the variability is associated with El Nino, which strongly influences northern Uruguay. Rainfall in southern Uruguay is correlated with latitudinal shifts in transient wave activity such that a strengthening in transient energy between 35° and 45°S extending from the southeastern Pacific into the South American continent favours positive anomalies. For El Nino to induce increased rainfall over southern Uruguay it has to force two stationary waves: one that emanates from central Pacific describing an arch of low curvature into high latitudes and then towards the south Atlantic and another shorter wave that emanates from the eastern Pacific turning north-eastward at the latitude of the subtropical jet. When the latter is strong, surface northerlies reach southern Uruguay destabilizing the atmosphere due to enhanced transport of moisture and warm air. Coincident changes in transient wave activity south of 35°S increases the associated frontal activity and thus can induce positive rainfall anomalies by tapping the increased available moisture. In this case, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are maximum in the central equatorial Pacific. On the other hand, a warmer eastern Pacific generates a stationary wave that shifts the subtropical jet northward increasing rainfall over south Brazil and decreasing it to the south of Uruguay. Thus, the summertime influence of El Nino over southern Uruguay is strongly dependent on the pattern of equatorial Pacific SST anomalies.

With the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model specifically configured to simulate the intensification and evolution of an extratropical baroclinic wave, this study first investigates why cold fronts are characteristically longer, narrower, and more intense than warm fronts in the extratropical atmosphere. It is found that the differential thermal advection by the geostrophic and ageostrophic wind components in the two frontal regions results in a greater thermal contrast across the cold front. The length of the cold front is essentially the length scale of the intensifying baroclinic wave (i.e., on the order of radius of deformation). The frontal system as a whole moves eastward under the influence of a steering flow. In addition, the cold front outpaces the warm front eastward, making the western portion of the warm front progressively occluded and the eastern portion of the warm front shorter. The dynamical processes tend to move the cold front eastward, whereas the diabatic heating processes tend to move it westward, contributing to the narrowness of the cold front. This study also investigates whether, how, and why an upper-level front (ULF) would synergistically interact with a surface front (SF). It is found that a favorable circumstance for such interaction to occur in an observed extratropical cyclone and in the WRF Model simulation is when the ULF and SF are roughly parallel to one another with the ULF aloft located a few hundred kilometers to the west of the SF. The relative importance of “forcing” for the ageostrophic circulation associated with the geostrophic circulation, diabatic heating, and friction are diagnosed in such interaction.

The Red Sea convergence zone (RSCZ) is formed by opposite surface winds blowing from northwest to southeast directions at around 18°–19°N between October and January. A reverse-oriented, low-level monsoon trough at 850 hPa, known as the Red Sea trough (RST), transfers moisture from the southern Red Sea to RSCZ. The positions of the RSCZ and RST and the intensity of the RST have been identified as important factors in modulating weather and climatic conditions across the Middle East. Here, we investigate the influence of the El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of RSCZ, RST, and regional rainfall during winter months. Our results indicate that El Nino (warm ENSO phase) favours a shift of the RSCZ to the north and a strengthening of the RST in the same direction. Conversely, during November and December of La Nina periods (cold ENSO phase), the RSCZ shift to the south and the RST strengthens in the same direction. During El Nino periods, southeasterly wind speeds increase (20–30%) over the southern Red Sea and northwesterly wind speeds decrease (10–15%) over the northern Red Sea. Noticeable increases in the number of rainy days and the intensity of rain events are observed during El Nino phases. These increases are associated with colder than normal air intrusion at lower levels from the north combined with warm air intrusion from the south over the RSCZ. Our analysis suggests that during El Nino winters, warmer sea surface temperatures and higher convective instability over the Red Sea favour local storms conditions and increase rainfall over the Red Sea and adjoining regions.