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The Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Earth System Model version 3 (NESM v3) has been developed, aiming to provide a numerical modeling platform for cross-disciplinary Earth system studies, project future Earth climate and environment changes, and conduct subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. While the previous model version NESM v1 simulates the internal modes of climate variability well, it has no vegetation dynamics and suffers considerable radiative energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere and surface, resulting in large biases in the global mean surface air temperature, which limits its utility to simulate past and project future climate changes. The NESM v3 has upgraded atmospheric and land surface model components and improved physical parameterization and conservation of coupling variables. Here we describe the new version's basic features and how the major improvements were made. We demonstrate the v3 model's fidelity and suitability to address global climate variability and change issues. The 500-year preindustrial (PI) experiment shows negligible trends in the net heat flux at the top of atmosphere and the Earth surface. Consistently, the simulated global mean surface air temperature, land surface temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST) are all in a quasi-equilibrium state. The conservation of global water is demonstrated by the stable evolution of the global mean precipitation, sea surface salinity (SSS), and sea water salinity. The sea ice extents (SIEs), as a major indication of highlatitude climate, also maintain a balanced state. The simulated spatial patterns of the energy states, SST, precipitation, and SSS fields are realistic, but the model suffers from a cold bias in the North Atlantic, a warm bias in the Southern Ocean, and associated deficient Antarctic sea ice area, as well as a delicate sign of the double ITCZ syndrome. The estimated radiative forcing of quadrupling carbon dioxide is about 7.24Wm-2, yielding a climate sensitivity feedback parameter of -0:98Wm-2 K-1, and the equilibrium climate sensitivity is 3.69 K. The transient climate response from the 1%yr-1 CO2 (1pctCO2) increase experiment is 2.16 K. The model's performance on internal modes and responses to external forcing during the historical period will be documented in an accompanying paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the monitoring data of road surface temperature, air temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity and precipitation from the automatic weather stations of Hurongxi, Hanyi, Wuhuang and Huanghuang on Huyu expressway from June 2013 to August 2014 were used to Investigate the change characteristics of different sections' road surface temperatures in different seasons and sky conditions. The forecast models of the maximum and minimum road surface temperatures were established on different sections by statistical analysis methods, and the forecast results were verified. The results showed that the road surface temperature and air temperature of Hurongxi, Hanyi, Wuhuang and Huanghuang displayed obvious diurnal variation, but the difference between the road surface temperature and air temperature was larger. Compared with the other three sections, the maximum difference between the road surface temperature and air temperature on Hurongxi increased in winter and decreased in summer overall. The road surface temperature was close to air temperature on Hurongxi after sunset on sunny to cloudy and overcast in winter, while less than air temperature on Hanyi, Wuhuang and Huanghuang. The air temperature was less than road surface temperature on the four sections on rainy day and significant on Hurongxi. In summer, the air temperature was less than road surface temperature on the four sections under three sky conditions and the difference between them in afternoon was the biggest on sunny to cloudy and overcast. The road surface temperature was very close to each other among the four sections in January, while which was rising with the decrease of altitude in April, July and October. The forecast result of the road surface temperature was close to actual result on Hurongxi and Huanghuang, so which can be for reference. But there were some big errors between the forecast result and actual result in several timings on Hanyi and Wuhuang, so the forecast result should be corrected for actual business work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The parameterization of physical processes is one of the critical elements to properly simulate the regional climate over eastern China. It is essential to conduct detailed analyses on the effect of physical parameterization schemes on regional climate simulation, to provide more reliable regional climate change information. In this paper, we evaluate the 25-year (1983-2007) summer monsoon climate characteristics of precipitation and surface air temperature by using the regional spectral model (RSM) with different physical schemes. The ensemble results using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method are also assessed. The result shows that the RSM model has the capacity to reproduce the spatial patterns, the variations, and the temporal tendency of surface air temperature and precipitation over eastern China. And it tends to predict better climatology characteristics over the Yangtze River basin and the South China. The impact of different physical schemes on RSM simulations is also investigated. Generally, the CLD3 cloud water prediction scheme tends to produce larger precipitation because of its overestimation of the low-level moisture. The systematic biases derived from the KF2 cumulus scheme are larger than those from the RAS scheme. The scale-selective bias correction (SSBC) method improves the simulation of the temporal and spatial characteristics of surface air temperature and precipitation and advances the circulation simulation capacity. The REA ensemble results show significant improvement in simulating temperature and precipitation distribution, which have much higher correlation coefficient and lower root mean square error. The REA result of selected experiments is better than that of nonselected experiments, indicating the necessity of choosing better ensemble samples for ensemble. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To expand torrential rain, which is a meso- and microscale weather process, to a meso- and long-scale weather process, in this paper, we choose South China as a sample region and propose the conception of the 'Cumulative Effect' of torrential rain (CETR) by using daily precipitation observational data from 740 stations. Through a statistical analysis of the observations, three indexes-continuous time ( L ), control area ( A ), and precipitation contribution rate ( Q )-are used to define the CETR and indicate the torrential rain processes. The relationships between the CETR and simultaneous total precipitation over South China are analyzed in the pre-flooding and latter flooding seasons. This analysis shows that on both interannual and interdecadal scales, the three indexes are highly correlated with simultaneous total precipitation over South China in the pre-flooding season and latter flooding season. Moreover, an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is performed to classify the spatial distribution of the CETR. In both the pre-flooding season and the latter flooding season, the four major spatial models of torrential rain are similar to those of total precipitation over South China. With regard to the amount of precipitation caused by the CETR, the latter flooding season is affected more significantly than the pre-flooding season. Regarding the geographical distribution of precipitation, the opposite result occurs. In conclusion, in both the pre-flooding season and the latter flooding season, the CETR influences and even determines the amount and distribution of precipitation over South China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to investigate the uncertainty ranges of high flows under climate change in Jinhua River basin, eastern China. Four representative concentration pathways (RCPs), three global climate models (GCMs), 10 downscaling parameter sets and three hydrologic models are applied to simulate future discharges. Changes of annual maximum discharges are assessed for the baseline period (1961-1990) and future period (2011-2040). The uncertainties of annual maximum discharges are calculated for each uncertainty source and compared with different combinations of them. The minimum temperature will probably increase all year round in the future period and maximum temperature would increase in most cases. The changes of precipitation showed different directions by different models and emission scenarios. The annual maximum discharges would decrease for all RCPs. The order of uncertainty ranges of high flows due to different uncertainty sources from high to low is: hydrologic models, GCMs, parameter sets in the downscaling method and emission scenarios. It must be noted that the small uncertainty contribution from different emission scenarios is due to the study period when the differences in increase of radiative forcing and greenhouse gas concentration are less obvious between different RCPs compared to the second half of the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the data of five observed meteorological elements (temperature, precipitation, wind speed, sunshine duration, and relative humidity) from 22 stations, the paper investigated the climate variations in northern Xinjiang over the past 50 years. The analytical results showed that both the temperature and the precipitation have increased significantly (0.35 °C/10 y, 11.2 mm/10 y) during the period of 1960–2011. An abrupt change was detected to have occurred in 1986 for temperature and in 1987 for precipitation. Autumn was the season when the temperature increased most dramatically, and winter and autumn were the seasons when the precipitation increased most dramatically. The twenty years after 1990 were the warmest and wettest two decades of the past ∼50 years, but the warming and wetting paces have slowed down during the same period. The results also showed that the mean annual minimum temperature increased more dramatically than the mean annual maximum temperature, resulting in a greatly reduced diurnal range. The reasons or mechanisms for rising trend of temperature during the past 50 years and also for the faster rising rate of the temperature in northern Xinjiang and the adjacent areas have been reasonably explored in published literature. However, the reasons or mechanisms for the rising trend of the past 50-year precipitation in northern Xinjiang and the adjacent areas have not been reasonably explored. This wetting trend has not extended further to the surrounding areas including Republic of Mongolia, major part of North China, and five republics of the former Soviet Union, and the need is thus pressing to explore the reasons or mechanisms behind this relatively “localized” wetting trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes 2007/2008 inter-annual changes in runoff from the Zhadang Glacier located on the northern slope of Nyainqêntanglha Range, Tibet, and analyzes their causes. Precipitation increased by 17.9% in summer months of 2008 compared with the same period in 2007, drainage basin runoff decreased by 33.3%, and glacial meltwater decreased by 53.8%. Change in positive accumulated air temperature explained approximately half of the inter-annual difference in glacial meltwater using a degree-day model. This suggests that the glacier is extremely sensitive to changes in air temperature. Energy balance analysis showed that change in glacier surface albedo, considered to be caused by difference in precipitation form, resulted in the large inter-annual difference in glacial meltwater. It was shown statistically that precipitation form in the summer months of 2007 was mainly rainfall which comprised 71.5% of total precipitation, while during the same period in 2008 rainfall accounted for 30.7%, with the majority of precipitation falling as snow. Precipitation form should be considered an independent factor when analyzing glacier sensitivity to climate change or forecasting the runoff from certain glaciers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper measures the economic impacts of climate change on China's agriculture based on the Ricardian model. By using county-level cross-sectional data on agricultural net revenue, climate, and other economic and geographical data for 1275 agriculture dominated counties, we find that under most climate change scenarios both higher temperature and more precipitation would have an overall positive impact on China's agriculture. However, the impacts vary seasonally and regionally. Autumn effect is the most positive, but spring effect is the most negative. Applying the model to five climate scenarios in the year 2050 shows that the East, the Central part, the South, the northern part of the Northeast, and the Plateau would benefit from climate change, but the Southwest, the Northwest and the southern part of the Northeast may be negatively affected. In the North, most scenarios show that they may benefit from climate change. In summary, all of China would benefit from climate change in most scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]