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High alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels are reported to be associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Given the pathological link with CKD, a similar relationship may exist in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We retrospectively evaluated 1,719 patients with AF and normal hepatic function who were registered in the Shinken Database between November 2011 and March 2017. Study patients were divided into three groups according to ALP value tertiles with cut-offs of 175 and 227 IU/L (normal range: 95-350 IU/L). Each group's incidence rate was recorded, and the risks of cardiovascular events and each component for patients in the middle and high ALP tertiles were compared with those in the low tertile and evaluated using Cox regression models. The additional predictive value of the high ALP tertile over the existing risk scores for the components of cardiovascular events was evaluated via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. During the median follow-up of 731 days (IQR: 444-1095 days), 137 cardiovascular events occurred, with incidence rates of 2.94%, 3.44%, and 6.19%/person-year for the low, middle, and high ALP tertiles, respectively. Of these cardiovascular events, heart failure had the highest incidence rates (1.34%, 1.89%, and 4.29%/person-year for the low, middle, and high ALP tertiles, respectively) and the incidence rates of the other components of cardiovascular event were similar in each ALP groups. Multivariate Cox regression analysis yielded hazard ratios of 1.22 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.70-1.96) and 1.62 (95% CI 1.06-2.48) for cardiovascular events and 1.66 (95% CI 0.87-3.15) and 2.50 (95% CI 1.39-4.48) for heart failure admission in the middle and high ALP tertiles, respectively. By ROC curve analysis for heart failure admission showed that the high ALP tertile lacked significant additive predictive value over the existing risk scores. High serum ALP levels, even those in the normal range, were significantly associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events, especially heart failure admission in patients with AF., (© 2022. Springer Japan KK, part of Springer Nature.)

The incidence of ischemic stroke (IS) increases in patients with enlarged left atrium (LA) irrespective of whether or not the existence of atrial fibrillation (AF). In such situation, it is unclear whether the impact of LA on incidence of IS still significant in young, non-AF patients with enlarged LA who are primarily unconcerned on anticoagulation therapy. The study population consisted of 18,511 consecutive patients not receiving oral anticoagulants and undergoing echocardiography with measurement of LAD at baseline. The incidence rate of ischemic stroke was calculated in 3 groups according to left atrial dimension (LAD; < 30, 30-45 and ≥ 45 mm) in AF and non-AF patients. Further subgroup analysis was performed in stratification by elderly and young (aged ≥ 65 and < 65 years, respectively). The incidences of IS (per 100 patient-years) were 0.11 and 0.71 in non-AF and AF patients with LAD < 30 mm, respectively, which increased to 0.58 and 1.35 in LAD ≥ 45 mm (adjusted hazard ratios [HRs]; 1.95 [95% confidence intervals, CIs: 0.76-5.01] and 1.22 [95% CIs: 0.27-5.58], interaction P was 0.246). In non-AF patients, the incidences of IS were 0.30 and 0.04 in elderly and young patients with LAD < 30 mm, which increased to 0.67 and 0.48 in LAD ≥ 45 mm (adjusted HRs; 1.34 [95% CIs: 0.43-4.15] and 4.21 [95% CIs: 0.77-23.12], interaction P was 0.158). The incidence of IS significantly increased with increase of LAD in non-AF, especially in non-AF and young patients, although the difference was not independent of other clinical factors. The impact of LAD on IS was numerically larger in non-AF than in AF, and larger in young and non-AF than in elderly counterpart, although a significant interaction was not observed in this small population. Further studies with large population are necessary to judge whether these population with enlarged LA need antithrombotic therapy., (© 2021. Springer Japan KK, part of Springer Nature.)

Aim: Polypharmacy is known to be a risk factor for falls or bone fracture (F/F) in elderly patients. However, this relationship is not fully described in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF), for which F/F may lead to serious clinical outcomes, including major bleeding., Methods: We analyzed 509 elderly (aged ≥75 years) patients with NVAF who had recently visited a hospital specializing in cardiology, of which 272 patients had paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) and 237 had persistent/permanent atrial fibrillation (PeAF). Patients were divided into four groups according to the number of medications: ≤3, 4-6, 7-9, and ≥10. The relationship between the number of medications and incidence rate of F/F in AF patients was analyzed. In addition, this relationship was analyzed in patients with each AF type., Results: Cumulative incidence of F/F at 3 years in the respective categories was 3.7%, 5.4%, 4.3% and 5.7% for PAF, and 5.2%, 7.5%, 7.8% and 25.0% for PeAF (log-rank test, P = 0.930 and 0.003, respectively). In a multivariable model, patients with ≥10 medications showed a significantly higher risk for F/F compared with those with ≤3 medications as reference only in PeAF (adjusted hazard ratio 4.82, 95%CI 1.42-16.33), without significant interaction (P = 0.081)., Conclusions: Elderly NVAF patients using ≥10 medications showed a higher risk for F/F. In subgroup analysis, this association was observed only in patients with PeAF, although there was no significant interaction between number of medications and AF type. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2021; 21: 802-809., (© 2021 Japan Geriatrics Society.)

Background: Diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF) based on electrocardiogram (ECG) with sinus rhythm remains a major challenge. Obtaining a panoramic view with hundreds of automatically measured ECG parameters at sinus rhythm on the predictive capability for AF would be informative., Methods: We used a single-center database of a specialist cardiovascular hospital (Shinken Database 2010-2017; n = 19,170). We analyzed 12,863 index ECGs with sinus rhythm after excluding those showing AF rhythm, other atrial tachyarrhythmia, pacing beat, or indeterminate axis, and those of patients with structural heart diseases. We used 438 automatically measured ECG parameters in the MUSE data management system. The predictive models were developed using random forest algorithm with the 10-fold cross-validation method., Results: In 12,863 index ECGs with sinus rhythm, a predictive capability for current paroxysmal AF (n = 1131) by c-statistics was 0.99981 ± 0.00037 for training dataset and 0.91337 ± 0.00087 for testing dataset, respectively. Excluding AF at baseline (n = 11,732), a predictive capability for newly developed AF (n = 98) by c-statistics was 0.99973 ± 0.00086 for training dataset and 0.99160 ± 0.00038 for testing dataset, respectively. The distribution of parameter importance was mostly similar among P, QRS, and ST-T segment for both current and newly developed AF., Conclusions: This study intended to provide panoramic information in relation between ECG parameters and AF. The parameter importance of ECG parameters for predicting AF was mostly similar in P, QRS, and ST-T segment in models for both current and future AF., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Ischemic stroke (IS) and major bleeding, which are serious adverse events in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), could have seasonal variations, but there are few reports., Methods and results: In the Shinken Database 2004-2016 (n=22,018), 3,581 AF patients (average age, 63.5 years; 2,656 men, 74.2%; 1,388 persistent AF, 38.8%) were identified. Median CHADS 2 and HAS-BLED scores were both 1 point. Oral anticoagulants were prescribed for 2,082 (58.1%) patients (warfarin, 1,214; direct oral anticoagulants [DOACs], 868). Incidence and observation period (maximum 3 years) of IS, extracranial hemorrhage (ECH), and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) were counted separately for the northern hemisphere seasons. During the mean follow-up period of 2.4 years, there were totals of 90 IS, 73 ECH, and 33 ICH cases. The respective incidence rates per 1,000 patient-years in spring, summer, autumn, and winter were 8.5, 8.8, 7.5, and 16.8 for IS, 7.2, 9.7, 3.8, and 13.1 for ECH, and 2.7, 1.9, 3.8, and 7.0 for ICH. The number of patients with DOACs relatively increased among those with ECH in summer., Conclusions: Significant seasonal variations were observed for IS, ECH, and ICH events in AF patients, and were consistently the highest in winter. A small peak of ECH was observed in summer, which seemed, in part, to be related to increased DOAC use.

Treatment and prognosis of elderly patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) may differ by the experience of fall or bone fracture. However, their current status is still unclear. From our institute database between 2010 and 2015, 674 AF patients with age ≥ 70 years were selected and were divided into those who experienced fall or fracture during the observation period (F/F group; n = 49) and those who did not (non-F/F group; n = 625). We compared the treatment and prognosis between the 2 groups. Patients in the F/F group were older (79 vs 76 years, P < 0.001) and had more comorbidities compared with those in the non-F/F group. The prescription rate of oral anticoagulant was similar between the two groups (77.6% vs 68.2%, P = 0.201), where warfarin was predominant. The F/F group was not associated with higher incidence of ischemic stroke. The F/F group was associated with a higher incidence of heart failure events (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 3.88; 95% confidence intervals (Cl) 1.70-8.85; P = 0.001), and cardiovascular events (OR 3.43; 95% Cl 1.71-6.85; P < 0.001). In elderly AF patients in a cardiovascular hospital, the experience of fall or fracture did not affect the prescription of oral anticoagulants and the incidence of ischemic stroke, but it was significantly associated with increase of heart failure.

Objective The pharmacodynamic effect of warfarin varies among individuals, and its maintenance dose is widely distributed. Although many formulae for predicting the maintenance dose of warfarin have been developed, most of them are complex and not in practical use. Methods and Materials Among 12,738 new patients visiting the Cardiovascular Institute between 2004 and 2009, we identified 127 patients (66.6±8.8 years, 89 men) with atrial fibrillation for whom warfarin was newly started with an initial dose of 2 mg/day and the international normalized ratio (INR) at 1 year after warfarin was started was within the therapeutic range. The prediction models for the maintenance dose were developed by an exponential equation and a first-order equation. Results The initial response of the INR to the dose of 2 mg/day (initial INR) ranged from 1.00-3.24 (mean 1.43), while the maintenance dose of warfarin ranged from 0.5-14 mg (mean 3.8 mg). The maintenance dose showed an exponential correlation to the initial INR: (predicted maintenance dose) =5.522× (initial INR) -1.556 (R 2 =0.795, p<0.001). Excluding the patients with a poor response to the initial dose (initial INR <1.1, n=32) permitted a simple correlation with a first-order approximation: (predicted maintenance dose) =-2.009× (initial INR) +6.172 (R 2 =0.706, p<0.001). Conclusion We developed a simple formula for predicting the maintenance dose of warfarin using the initial response of the INR to low-dose warfarin.

In Japanese surveillance in an early phase after the approval of rivaroxaban, inappropriate underdose was frequently utilized. The aim of this study was to describe the prevalence and predictors of the inappropriate usage of rivaroxaban in a single-center, cardiovascular-specialized hospital. Consecutive 661 non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients treated with rivaroxaban between 2012 and 2017 were recruited. After excluding 30 patients without assessment of creatinine clearance (CCr), the proportion and predictors of inappropriate underdose were analyzed. Additionally, patient outcomes, including thromboembolism (ischemic stroke or systemic embolism) and major bleeding, were determined. In patients with CCr ≥ 50 mL/min (n = 532) and < 50 mL/min (n = 98), inappropriate underdose and overdose were used in 123 (23%) and 8 (8%), respectively. The predictors of inappropriate underdose (in patients with CCr ≥ 50 mL/min) were CCr [50-63 mL/min (the lowest tertile) compared to ≥ 64 mL/min], age ( ≥ 75 years), female gender, prescription of antiplatelet, and coexistence of heart failure. Although PT under rivaroxaban was lower in patients with inappropriate underdose than in those with an appropriate dose, no significant increase in the incidence of thromboembolism or major bleeding was observed within the mean follow-up of 683 days. Inappropriate underdose of rivaroxaban was frequently observed for NVAF patents even in a cardiovascular hospital, particularly in patients with CCr adjacent to the dose reduction criteria. The responses of PT and the incidence of adverse outcomes under an inappropriate dose of rivaroxaban should be further investigated.

Objectives: Several studies have suggested a possible relationship between atrial fibrillation (AF) and falls. However, whether the relationship depends on AF types is unclear. We investigated the relationship between sustaining AF and falls., Design: Single hospital-based cohort study with a follow-up of falls within 3 years after baseline., Setting and Participants: A total of 14,056 patients from our cohort between February 2010 and March 2016., Measures: Incidence of falls within 3 years by baseline cardiac rhythm was measured, and we investigated the effects of AF types on incidence of falls., Results: The study population was divided into younger (<75 years old; n = 11,808) and older (≥75 years old; n = 2248) groups, and then divided into 3 groups according to the baseline cardiac rhythm: sinus rhythm (SR), paroxysmal AF (PAF), and persistent AF (PeAF). There were more male patients in the PeAF group; these patients had more comorbidities both in the younger and older groups. The cumulative incidence rates of falls at 1 year in patients with SR, PAF, and PeAF were similar in the younger group (0.4%, 0.4%, and 0.6%, respectively; P = .496), whereas those were significantly different in the older group (2.3%, 2.7%, and 5.0%, respectively; P = .024). In multivariate analysis, both PAF [hazard ratio (HR) 1.179; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.553-2.511, reference SR] and PeAF (HR 1.502; 95% CI 0.635-3.556) were not associated with falls in the younger group. In the older group, PeAF was independently associated with incidence of falls (HR 2.257; 95% CI 1.262-4.037), but PAF was not (HR 1.317; 95% CI 0.673-2.574)., Conclusions/implications: PeAF, not PAF, was associated independently with falls in older patients, suggesting the possible effect of irregular beats on physical frailty in the older population., (Copyright © 2018 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Aims This study aimed to investigate the correlation of heart rate profile during exercise with exercise capacity and heart failure occurrence in patients with atrial fibrillation compared with patients with sinus rhythm. Methods We analyzed 2231 patients (atrial fibrillation: n = 321, sinus rhythm: n = 1910) who underwent a symptom-limited maximal cardiopulmonary exercise test at our institute. Their heart rate profile during exercise was assessed using peak heart rate and chronotropic response; (peak heart rate-resting heart rate)/(220-age-resting heart rate). The endpoint was the occurrence of heart failure events, defined as hospitalization for heart failure or heart failure-related death. Results There were significant positive correlations of peak heart rate and chronotropic response to peak oxygen consumption, both in atrial fibrillation and sinus rhythm. During a median follow-up period of 1262 (interquartile range 974-2921) days, 117 (5.2%) heart failure events were observed. Multivariate analyses showed that peak heart rate and chronotropic response were statistically significant predictors of heart failure events both in atrial fibrillation (peak heart rate: heart rate 0.975, p = 0.002, chronotropic response: heart rate 0.196, p = 0.003) and in sinus rhythm (peak heart rate: heart rate 0.988, p = 0.036, chronotropic response: heart rate 0.347, p = 0.020). Bivariate models showed that compared with chronotropic response, peak heart rate was a stronger predictor of heart failure in atrial fibrillation, whereas the finding was reversed in sinus rhythm. Conclusion The exercise- heart rate profile was significantly related to exercise capacity and future heart failure events, regardless of rhythm. However, the impacts of peak heart rate and chronotropic response on the endpoint varied according to the cardiac rhythm.

Background: The predictive role of E/e' on ischemic stroke (IS) and atrial fibrillation (AF) in Japanese patients without AF are unclear., Methods and Results: Shinken database includes all the new patients visiting the Cardiovascular Institute Hospital in Tokyo, Japan. E/e' has been routinely measured since 2007. Patients without AF for whom E/e' was measured at the initial visit between 2007 and 2014 (n=11 477, mean age 57.2 years old, men 59.5%) were divided into E/e' tertiles (<8.04, 8.04-11.00, >11.00). During the mean follow-up period of 1.8 years, 58 IS and 140 new appearances of AF were observed. High E/e' tertile was associated with more prevalence of atherothrombotic risks. The cumulative incidence of IS events and new appearance of AF at 6 years in low, middle, and high E/e' tertiles were 0.5%, 1.4%, and 3.0%/year (log-rank test, p<0.001), and 2.5%, 2.9%, and 4.2%/year (log-rank test, p=0.007), respectively. In multivariate analysis, high E/e' tertile was independently associated with IS (HR, 2.857, 95%CI 1.257-6.495, p=0.012). Although high E/e' tertile was independently associated with new appearance of AF when adjusted for coexistence of atherothrombotic risk factors (HR, 1.694, 95%CI, 1.097-2.616, p=0.017), the association was attenuated after adjustment for left atrial dimension., Conclusions: E/e' was significantly associated with incidence of IS and new appearance of AF in non-AF patients., (Copyright © 2018 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Variability in the international normalized ratio (INR) of prothrombin time has been suggested to be related to outcome in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) under warfarin therapy, but its determinants remain unclear., Methods and results: The study population consisted of 626 AF patients under warfarin therapy in the Shinken Database (n=22,230). INR variability was calculated by Fihn's method. Determinants of high log INR variability (defined as over mean+standard deviation) were determined by logistic regression analyses. Symptomatic heart failure (odds ratio [OR] 3.974, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.510-6.292), older age (≥75 years old; OR 2.984, 95% CI 1.844-4.826) and severe renal dysfunction (eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ; OR 3.918, 95% CI 1.742-8.813) were identified as independent predictors of high INR variability on multivariate logistic regression analysis., Conclusions: The determinants of INR variability in AF patients under warfarin therapy could assist Japanese clinicians in identifying patients likely to show unstable warfarin control irrespective of the definition of the target INR range.

The effects of smoking on the prognosis of non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients are unclear.The Shinken Database 2004-11 (n = 17,517) includes all new patients visiting the Cardiovascular Institute between June 2004 and March 2012. Among these cases, 2,102 NVAF patients were identified. The effects of smoking on ischemic stroke (IS), intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), and coronary artery events including percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and acute coronary syndrome (ACS) were analyzed. Smokers were younger and had lower risk profiles compared with non-smokers. A similar tendency was observed between current and former smokers. In contrast, patients with high tobacco consumption were older and had higher risk profiles, including uncontrolled hypertension, compared with those with low tobacco consumption. In 8,159 patient-years, IS, ICH, PCI, and ACS occurred at rates of 7.7, 2.7, 12.4, and 3.0 per 1000 patient-years. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, smoking was not significantly associated with any adverse event. However, different effects of smoking were observed when stratified by age. In patients ≥ 65 years old, current smokers were independently associated with PCI. Moreover, current smokers and smokers with a total tobacco amount ≥ 800 were marginally and independently associated with IS. In patients < 65 years, current smokers were independently associated with ICH.Age appears to be one of the contributors to differentiation of the effects of smoking on cardiovascular events in our NVAF patients. In elderly patients who still smoke, smoking was associated with the promotion of atherosclerosis or thromboembolism, whereas in young patients it was associated with bleeding.

This study aimed to examine the discrete impacts of peak oxygen consumption (VO 2 ) and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels on future heart failure (HF) events in sinus rhythm (SR) and atrial fibrillation (AF). A total of 1447 patients who underwent symptom-limited cardiopulmonary exercise testing and whose BNP values were determined simultaneously were analysed (SR, N = 1151 and AF, N = 296). HF events were defined as HF hospitalization or HF death. Over a mean follow-up period of 1472 days, 140 HF events were observed. A high BNP value (dichotomized by median value) was independently associated with HF events in SR (HR 8.08; 95 % CI 4.02-16.26; p < 0.0001), but not in AF patients (HR 1.97; 95 % CI 0.91-4.28; p = 0.087) with a significant interaction between the rhythms. By contrast, low-peak VO 2 was independently associated with HF events in both rhythms (AF; HR 5.81; 95 % CI 1.75-19.30; p = 0.004, SR; HR 2.04; 95 % CI 1.19-3.49; p = 0.009), with a marginal interaction between them. In bivariate Cox models, low-peak VO 2 had much stronger predictive power for HF events than high-BNP in AF, whereas high-BNP was more powerful than low-peak VO 2 in SR. The prognostic value of BNP and peak VO 2 for future HF events seemed to be different between SR and AF.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of stroke and other thromboembolic events. Left atrial (LA) thrombus formation is closely related to LA dysfunction, particularly to decreased LA appendage flow velocity (LAA-FV) in patients with AF. We estimated LAA-FV using parameters noninvasively obtained by transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) in patients with paroxysmal AF.Echocardiographic and clinical parameters were assessed in 190 patients with nonvalvular paroxysmal AF showing sinus heart rhythm during transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) and TTE.LAA-FV (60 ± 22 cm/s) significantly correlated with the time interval between the initiation of the P-wave on ECG and that of the A-wave of transmitral flow on TTE (PA-TMF, correlation coefficient, -0.32; P < 0.001), LA dimension (LAD, -0.31; P < 0.001), septal a' velocity of tissue Doppler imaging (TDI, 0.35; P < 0.001), E/e' ratio (-0.28, P < 0.001), E velocity of transmitral flow (-0.20, P = 0.008), E/A ratio of transmitral flow (-0.18, P = 0.02), CHA2DS2-VASc score (-0.15, P = 0.04), and BNP plasma level (-0.32, P = 0.002). Multivariate analysis revealed that PA-TMF (standardized partial regression coefficient, -0.17; P = 0.03), a' velocity (0.24, P = 0.004), and LAD (-0.20, P = 0.01) were independent predictors of LAA-FV (multiple correlation coefficient R, 0.44; P < 0.001).Parameters of atrial remodeling, ie, decreased a' velocity, increased LAD, and PA-TMF during sinus rhythm may be useful predictors of LA blood stasis in patients with nonvalvular PAF. LAA-FV can be estimated using these TTE parameters instead of TEE.

Background: Trends of oral anticoagulant (OAC) prescription and incidence of thromboembolism (TE) and/or major bleeding (MB) in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) in Japan are still unclear., Methods and results: We used data from Shinken Database 2004-2012, which included all new patients attending the Cardiovascular Institute between June 2004 and March 2013. Of them, 2,434 patients were diagnosed with NVAF. Patients were divided into 3 time periods according to the year of initial visit: 2004-2006 (n=681), 2007-2009 (n=833), and 2010-2012 (n=920). OAC prescription rate steadily increased from 2004-2006 to 2010-2012. Between 2004-2006 and 2007-2009, irrespective of increased warfarin usage, MB tended to decrease, presumably due to low-intensity therapy and avoidance of concomitant use of dual antiplatelets, but TE did not improve. In 2010-2012, direct OACs (DOAC), preferred in low-risk patients, may have contributed to not only decrease TE, but also increase MB, especially extracranial bleeds. In high-risk patients in that time period, mostly treated with warfarin, incidence of TE and MB did not improve., Conclusions: The 9-year trend of stroke prevention indicated a steady increase of OAC prescription and a partial improvement of TE and MB. Even in the era of DOAC, TE prevention was insufficient in high-risk patients, and DOAC were associated with increased extracranial bleeding. (Circ J 2016; 80: 639-649).

Background: We previously reported a cross-sectional analysis regarding the relationship between smoking and atrial fibrillation (AF) in a single hospital-based cohort with Japanese patients, but the effect of cessation of smoking and/or total tobacco consumption were unclear., Methods and Results: We used data from the Shinken Database 2004-2011 (men/women, n=10,714/6803, respectively), which included all new patients attending the Cardiovascular Institute between June 2004 and March 2012. After excluding those previously diagnosed with AF (n=2296), 15,221 patients (men/women, n=9016/6205) were analyzed. During the follow-up period of 2.0±2.1 years (range 0.0-8.1), the incidence rates of new AF in smokers and non-smokers were 9.0 and 5.0 per 1000 patient-years, respectively. In adjusted models with Cox regression analysis, smokers were independently associated with new AF [hazard ratio (HR) 1.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09-2.00]. Also, current smokers (HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.17-2.79) and smokers with Brinkman index ≥800 (HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.05-2.70) were independently associated with new AF. However, in current smokers, the HRs were not different by Brinkman index (Brinkman index <800/≥800; HR 1.81/1.82, 95% CI 1.07-3.05/0.94-3.51, respectively)., Conclusions: Smoking was independently associated with the first-appearance of AF in patients in sinus rhythm, especially when the patients continued their smoking habit. However, in patients who continued smoking, difference by total tobacco consumption was not observed, suggesting the significance of cessation of smoking for preventing AF. Our data are limited because of a single hospital-based nature and a relatively short observation period., (Copyright © 2014 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: The association between ABO blood type and the activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) under dabigatran therapy in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients is unclear., Methods and results: Between 2011 March and 2015 May, data on ABO blood type and aPTT under dabigatran were obtained for 396 NVAF patients (baseline aPTT, 166). The prevalence of blood type O tended to increase or significantly increase according to baseline aPTT, aPTT under dabigatran, and their difference (∆aPTT) (P=0.054, 0.001, and 0.012, respectively)., Conclusions: In these NVAF patients, a high aPTT value under dabigatran therapy was associated with blood type O.

Background: Both the prevalence of atrial fibrillation and coronary artery disease (CAD) is increasing in aged societies. However, limited data are available regarding the prevalence of CAD and the incidence of coronary events in Japanese patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF)., Methods and Results: The data in this study were derived from Shinken Database 2004-2010, which includes 15,227 new patient visitors to the Cardiovascular Institute between June 2004 and March 2011. In the database, 1835 patients were diagnosed with NVAF (mean age 63 years, mean CHADS2 score 1.1 ± 1.1, and 75% were men). The prevalence of CAD at the initial visit was 118 patients (6.4%). They were older age and had a greater prevalence of men, more history of congestive heart failure and more history of cardiovascular risk factors rather than those without. During the follow-up period of 532 ± 599 days, coronary events (myocardial infarction, unstable angina, and stable angina) occurred in 51 patients (1.9%/year). Multivariate analysis showed that a history of CAD (p<0.001) and older age (p=0.024) were independent predictors of the incidence of future coronary events., Conclusions: In Japanese patients with NVAF, both the presence of CAD and the occurrence of coronary events are not uncommon. History of CAD and older age are strongly associated with the incidence of coronary events., (Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Background:  Prothrombin time (PT) distribution in Japanese nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients under rivaroxaban therapy remains to be clarified., Methods and Results:  Between May 2012 and July 2013, 115 NVAF patients received rivaroxaban (PT was measured in 94; reagent: recombiplastin). In these patients, (1) PT values were distributed widely from patient to patient and from peak to trough, (2) the time-dependence was obscure with sampling at any time in the outpatient clinic, and (3) the incidence of adverse events was too low for analyzing the relation with PT., Conclusions:  We report the distribution of PT for Japanese NVAF patients under rivaroxaban therapy in real-world clinical practice.

Background: This study investigated the progression of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) to the persistent form in Japanese asymptomatic AF patients., Methods and Results: Data were derived from a single hospital-based cohort in the Shinken Database 2004-2012 (n=19,994), in which 1,176 patients were diagnosed as having paroxysmal AF. AF progression occurred in 115 patients (6.0%/year) during the mean follow-up period (1,213±905 days). Although patients who were asymptomatic at the initial visit (n=468) had a low-risk profile compared with symptomatic patients, they had greater AF progression at follow-up (unadjusted hazard ratio, 1.611; 95% CI: 1.087-2.389; P=0.018). Absence of symptoms, male sex, and cardiomyopathy were independent predictors for AF progression in the multivariate model. It was noted that asymptomatic patients were less likely to undergo pulmonary vein isolation (PVI). In addition, the interaction term between asymptomatic AF and absence of PVI could be another independent predictor for AF progression. Prognosis was similar between asymptomatic and symptomatic patients with AF., Conclusions: Irrespective of low-risk profile, patients with asymptomatic paroxysmal AF had greater progression of AF compared with symptomatic patients. This paradoxical result appeared to be the result of less intensive clinical management, including invasive rhythm control.

Background: A blue letter (safety advisory) for dabigatran was issued by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare in August 2011. Changes in physicians' attitudes toward dabigatran use before and after the blue letter have not been previously reported., Methods and Results: Between March 2011 and July 2012, dabigatran was prescribed to 404 Japanese patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation at The Cardiovascular Institute (Tokyo, Japan). Patients were divided into three groups according to the first prescription date: phase I (before the blue letter, n=135); phase II (after the blue letter and before permission for longer-term prescriptions, n=112); and phase III (after permission for longer-term prescriptions, n=157). In phase II, dabigatran use tended to be avoided for patients with older age, renal dysfunction, receiving antiplatelet medication, or p-glycoprotein inhibitors. Measurement of activated partial thromboplastin time significantly increased from phase I to III. In phase III, the tendencies seen in phase II were reversed: dabigatran use in patients with older age and renal dysfunction tended to increase, but decreased or remained the same in patients receiving antiplatelet medications or p-glycoprotein inhibitors., Conclusions: We described the changes in the attitudes of attending physicians toward dabigatran prescription after the blue letter in a specialized hospital for cardiovascular care in Japan, which, we believe, involve useful information for safe use of dabigatran in a real-world clinical setting. However, a true impact or effect of the blue letter should be ascertained in a nationwide, multicenter study., (Copyright © 2013 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Frequent supraventricular extrasystoles (SVEs) are associated with the subsequent first-time appearance of atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischemic stroke. The aim of this study was to investigate the combined role of SVEs and an AF-related risk score for ischemic stroke, the CHADS2 score, on the occurrence of new AF in patients in sinus rhythm. The Shinken Database 2004-2010 lists 3,263 patients who underwent 24-hour Holter monitoring. A total of 2,589 patients were analyzed, after excluding 674 patients previously diagnosed with AF. Frequent SVEs were defined as ≥102 beats/day (the top quartile) and the presence of a clinical background for a CHADS2 score ≥2 points as a high CHADS2 score. During the mean follow-up period of 571.4 ± 606.4 days, new AF occurred in 38 patients (9.4 per 1,000 patient-years). The incidence of new AF was 2.7 and 37.7 per 1,000 patient-years for patients with nonfrequent SVEs (<102 beats/day) and low CHADS2 scores and those with frequent SVEs and high CHADS2 scores, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the hazard ratio for frequent SVEs and a high CHADS2 score compared with nonfrequent SVEs and a low CHADS2 score was 9.49 (95% confidence interval 3.20 to 28.15, p <0.001), even after adjustment for gender, age, medications, and echocardiographic parameters. In conclusion, frequent SVEs and a high CHADS2 score independently and synergistically predict the first-time appearance of AF in patients in sinus rhythm, indicating an approximately 10-fold higher risk. Patients meeting these criteria should have more aggressive early intervention for preventing AF., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Several reports have identified that decline in renal function and presence of proteinuria are closely associated with incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, it is still unclear whether these kidney-related markers are associated with the progression of AF from paroxysmal to persistent form., Methods and Results: Among the new patients who visited the Cardiovascular Institute Hospital between 2004 and 2010 (Shinken Database 2004-2010, n=15,227), both estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and proteinuria were measured in 1074 AF patients (paroxysmal/persistent 579/495, respectively), who were divided into tertiles of eGFR (the borderlines were 60.07 and 73.67 ml[min(-1)]1.73[m(-2)], respectively), and then further divided into the two categories with/without proteinuria. The average value of eGFR was lower (63.1 ml[min(-1)]1.73[m(-2)] vs. 68.8 ml[min(-1)]1.73[m(-2)], p<0.001) and the detection rate of proteinuria was higher (13.7% vs. 8.5%, p=0.006) in patients with persistent AF than in those with paroxysmal AF, respectively. In the multivariate analysis without parameters of echocardiography [left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and left atrial dimension (LAD)], both eGFR and proteinuria were independently associated with persistent AF, but the association was abolished when the model included LAD and LVEF., Conclusions: In the present analysis with cross-sectional design, both eGFR and proteinuria were apparently linked to the persistent form of AF, but their role in the pathogenesis does not seem to exceed the atrial stretch and remodeling, represented by LAD and LVEF., (Copyright © 2012 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Tobacco smoking is a well-known risk factor for cardiovascular disease, but controversial results have been reported regarding its relationship with atrial fibrillation (AF). Moreover, no study on the relationship between smoking and AF has yet been undertaken in a Japanese context., Methods and Results: We used data from the Shinken Database 2004-2011 (men/women, n=10,714/6,803, respectively), which included all new patients attending the Cardiovascular Institute between June 2004 and March 2012. AF was diagnosed in 1,698 and 598 men and women, respectively. In men, smokers were more prevalent in the AF than in the non-AF group (54.5% vs. 44.7%), whereas in women the prevalence of smokers was similar between AF and non-AF groups (14.4% vs. 15.4%). This discrepancy between the sexes seems to derive from a characteristic distribution pattern of smoking habit in women. After adjustment for various cofactors, smoking was independently associated with AF (odds ratio 1.54; 95% confidence interval 1.35-1.75; P<0.001) without a significant interaction between sex categories (P=0.195)., Conclusions: Smoking was independently associated with AF without a significant interaction between sex categories among Japanese patients visiting a cardiovascular hospital. Further studies using a prospective cohort design are required to confirm a causal link between smoking and AF in Japanese patients.

Risk stratification for heart failure (HF) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) has not been well established. The aim of this study was to identify the predictors of HF events in patients with AF, consequently developing a new risk-scoring system that stratifies the risk for HF events. In this prospective, single hospital-based cohort, all patients who presented from July 2004 to March 2010 were registered (Shinken Database 2004-2009). Follow-up was maintained by being linked to the medical records or by sending study documents of prognosis. Of the 13,228 patients in the Shinken Database 2004-2009, 1,942 patients with AF were identified. Of the patients with AF, HF events (hospitalization or death from HF) occurred in 147 patients (7.6%) during a mean follow-up period of 776 ± 623 days. After identifying the parameters that were independently associated with the incidence of HF events (coexistence of organic heart diseases, anemia [hemoglobin level <11 g/dl], renal dysfunction [estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 ml/min/m(2)], diabetes mellitus, and the use of diuretics), a new scoring system was developed, the H(2)ARDD score (heart diseases = 2 points, anemia = 1 point, renal dysfunction = 1 point, diabetes = 1 point, and diuretic use = 1 point; range 0 to 6 points). This scoring system discriminated the low- and high-risk populations well (incidence in patients scoring 0 and 6 points of 0.2% and 40.8% per patient-year, respectively) and showed high predictive ability (area under the curve 0.840, 95% confidence interval 0.803 to 0.876). In conclusion, the new H(2)ARDD score may help identify the population of patients with AF at high risk for HF events., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: The characteristics and prognosis of patients with first-detected atrial fibrillation (AF) in Japan remain unclear., Methods and Results: First-detected AF patients without structural heart disease (n=289) were reviewed with regard to 2 symptom classifications (CCS-SAF and EHRA). In both classifications, asymptomatic patients comprised ≈40% of the patients, and patients in the most symptomatic class (≈6%) had peculiar characteristics and poor prognosis. In other symptomatic classes, symptoms affected the treatment strategy without a significant difference in the patients' backgrounds and prognosis., Conclusions: This is the first report to describe the distribution, characteristics and outcomes of first-detected AF patients according to symptom classifications.

Background: Although various kinds of cardiovascular risk factors have been reported to be associated with atrial fibrillation (AF), the relationship between serum uric acid level and AF has not been fully examined., Methods and Results: Data were collected from a single hospital-based cohort in the Shinken Database 2004-2008 (n=11,123), and consisted of serum uric acid level for 7,155 patients. The association between serum uric acid level and AF prevalence was evaluated on logistic regression. Uric acid significantly increased the crude AF prevalence in both men and women (both, P<0.001). The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) in the highest tertile compared with the lowest one were 3.368 (2.478-4.578) and 1.408 (1.169-1.695) in women and men, respectively. Uric acid was also significantly associated with other various cardiovascular risk factors for AF. Even after the multivariate model was adjusted using these variables, the effect of uric acid on AF was independent in women (OR, 1.888; 95%CI: 1.278-2.790), but not in men., Conclusions: Reflecting the composite of various cardiovascular risk factors, serum uric acid level was apparently associated with AF prevalence. The independent association in women might imply some sex-specific mechanisms. The results should be confirmed in prospective studies.

Background: The distribution of activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients under dabigatran therapy remains to be clarified., Methods and Results: The study population was 196 NVAF patients who were treated with dabigatran in 2011 (126 with 220 mg/day). The APTT values showed a wide distribution among the patients, especially in those with a reduced dose, who seemed to show a high value even in patients without contraindications., Conclusions: We found a wide distribution of APTT in NVAF patients under dabigatran treatment. High APTT might help screen for bleeding risks among patients under dabigatran, but requires future investigation.

Background: In Japan, the recent status of the mortality of atrial fibrillation (AF) patients is still unclear., Methods and Results: We used a single-hospital based cohort database in an urban city (Tokyo) in Japan, including all the new visitors from 2004 to 2009 (n=13,228). The non-adjusted death rates of AF patients for all-cause, stroke, and cardiovascular death were 1091, 97, and 727 per 100,000 patient-years, and the age-adjusted ones were 317 (95% CI, 316-318), 16 (95% CI, 16-16), and 238 (95% CI, 237-239), respectively. The age-adjusted relative risk of AF on all-cause mortality was 1.7 in the particular population., Conclusions: The present study provides the most recent data about the characteristics and the mortality of AF patients in Tokyo, thus serving as the basic information for finding problems to solve regarding Japanese AF patients., (Copyright © 2011 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Although recent studies have suggested that height and body mass index (BMI) independently affect the prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF), their combined effects have not been fully examined in Japanese patients., Methods and Results: Patients without organic cardiac diseases, hypertension and diabetes mellitus were screened from a prospective, single hospital-based cohort of the Shinken Database 2004-2007 (n=4,719). Both height and BMI significantly increased the crude rate of AF prevalence and the effects were significant even after adjustment by age, sex and left atrial dimension. The relative risks (RRs) for AF in the height and BMI categories were 2.07 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.70-2.52) and 1.78 (95%CI 1.46-2.17), respectively, in the highest tertile compared with the lowest tertile. The RRs in the highest combined tertile was high to 2.98 (95%CI 2.07-4.28) compared with the lowest combined tertile, an unignorable figure for AF prevalence in the future., Conclusions: Height and BMI synergistically affected the prevalence of AF in Japanese patients. With respect to the recent increase in body size of the Japanese population, the present study predicts that there will be more occurrences of AF than previously predicted. (Circ J 2010; 74: 66 - 70).

Many large-scale randomized control trials (RCTs) have been performed regarding treatment strategy in atrial fibrillation (AF) in Western countries and also in Japan. However, limited data are available concerning real-world relationships between the treatment strategy and prognosis of AF patients. Out of a prospective cohort of The Shinken Database 2004 (n = 2 412), 286 AF patients (male 205, 64.1 +/- 12.3 years, paroxysmal form 165) were retrospectively investigated. The percentage of AF patients under the rhythm control strategy was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method, which showed the cumulative proportion of rhythm control strategy was approximately 30% at the 90th day after the initial visit and 40.0% at 1 year. The average time to the first rhythm control strategy was 68.3 +/- 106.7 days. Those under rhythm control strategy were associated with fewer coexisting organic cardiac diseases, a younger age, and smaller left atrial dimension. Consequently, they showed very good prognosis (cumulative incidence rate of cardiovascular events at 1 year was 0.0%). Careful induction of rhythm control strategy, which was adopted in approximately 40% of the patients in the real world, was associated with fewer comorbidities and therefore might lead to better prognosis, although this does not mean the direct effects of rhythm control strategy.

Background: Prognosis of Japanese patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) should be determined in a prospective cohort study., Methods and Results: A prospective cohort of The Shinken Database 2004 comprised details on all the new patients who visited The Cardiovascular Institute Hospital in 2004 (n=2,412), which included 286 AF patients (11.8%, 205 males, 64.1+/-12.3 years, 165 paroxysmal). In this Japanese cohort of AF patients, the prevalence of congestive heart failure (CHF) was low compared with that in Westerners. Total mortality and cardiovascular morbidity of these patients were also quite low, 1.7% and 11.2% at 1 year, respectively. However, patients with CHF exhibited higher mortality (7.3%), and hospitalization for CHF increased the rate to 22.6%. There was no significant difference in mortality between paroxysmal and persistent AF. Multiple Cox-hazard regression analysis identified hospitalization at initial visit and lack of anticoagulation as independent predictors for mortality, and existence of CHF as the only independent predictor for cardiovascular morbidity. CONCLUSIONS The present study identified the mortality (1.7%) and morbidity (11.2%) of Japanese AF patients during 1 year after initial visit. Hospitalization for CHF and lack of anticoagulation were independent predictors for mortality, suggesting important roles of co-morbidities of Japanese AF patients.