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Anticipating future changes in marine social‐ecological systems (MSES) several decades into the future is essential in the context of accelerating global change. This is challenging in situations where actors do not share common understandings, practices, or visions about the future. We introduce a dedicated scenario method for the development of MSES scenarios in a participatory context. The objective is to allow different actors to jointly develop scenarios which contain their multiple visions of the future. The method starts from four perspectives: "fisheries management," "ecosystem," "ocean climate," and "global context and governance" for which current status and recent trends are summarized. Contrasted scenarios about possible futures are elaborated for each of the four single perspectives before being integrated into multiple‐perspective scenarios. Selected scenarios are then developed into storylines. Focusing on individual perspectives until near the end allows actors with diverse cultures, interests and horizons to confront their own notions of the future. We illustrate the method with the exploration of the futures of the Barents Sea MSES by 2050. We emphasize the following lessons learned: first, many actors are not familiar with scenario building and attention must be paid to explaining the purpose, methodology, and benefits of scenarios exercises. Second, although the Barents Sea MSES is relatively well understood, uncertainties about its future are significant. Third, it is important to focus on unlikely events. Fourth, all perspectives should be treated equally. Fifth, as MSES are continuously changing, we can only be prepared for future changes if we collectively keep preparing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large‐scale patterns in species diversity and community composition are associated with environmental gradients, but the implications of these patterns for food‐web structure are still unclear. Here, we investigated how spatial patterns in food‐web structure are associated with environmental gradients in the Barents Sea, a highly productive shelf sea of the Arctic Ocean. We compared food webs from 25 subregions in the Barents Sea and examined spatial correlations among food‐web metrics, and between metrics and spatial variability in seawater temperature, bottom depth and number of days with ice cover. Several food‐web metrics were positively associated with seawater temperature: connectance, level of omnivory, clustering, cannibalism, and high variability in generalism, while other food‐web metrics such as modularity and vulnerability were positively associated with sea ice and negatively with temperature. Food‐web metrics positively associated with habitat heterogeneity were: number of species, link density, omnivory, path length, and trophic level. This finding suggests that habitat heterogeneity promotes food‐web complexity in terms of number of species and link density. Our analyses reveal that spatial variation in food‐web structure along the environmental gradients is partly related to species turnover. However, the higher interaction turnover compared to species turnover along these gradients indicates a consistent modification of food‐web structure, implying that interacting species may co‐vary in space. In conclusion, our study shows how environmental heterogeneity, via environmental filtering, influences not only turnover in species composition, but also the structure of food webs over large spatial scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beaked redfish (Sebastes mentella) is one of the few commercially important fish species producing living offspring. Like many other deep-water fishes, it is slow growing, late maturing and long-lived, getting as old as 65 years or even 75 years in some populations. The stock in the Norwegian and Barents Seas is analytically assessed since 2012, assuming a natural mortality (M) of 0.05 yr−1 across all ages, based on Hoenig's longevity related estimator. Since then, several reviews and new studies have been published, affording a re-evaluation of the natural mortality in the assessment model. We estimated natural mortality of beaked redfish using 48 different estimators in two categories, either estimating M across the population or dependent on age, length or weight. The obtained estimates were highly variable, ranging from 0.01 to 0.32 yr−1 for estimates across the population, and 0.05–0.62 yr−1 for age or size dependent median- M. These wide ranges demonstrate the sensitivity of SSB to the input parameters as well as the pitfalls of using estimators developed for distant taxa. Of the 48 estimates, 20 were considered as potential candidates for updating the stock assessment model, yet not all of these were realistic. The frequency distribution of the estimators showed a peak around a value of 0.07 yr−1, lowering the estimated spawning stock biomass in the last year by about 300 kt but keeping it above the precautionary reference point for the stock. Estimators across the life-history of beaked redfish indicate a potential underestimation of natural mortality for early and overestimation for late age classes. Age and size related estimators are promising for the older ages but tend to extreme estimates for the early ages, which deserves further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity is an increasingly important issue for the management of marine ecosystems. However, the proliferation of biodiversity indices and difficulties associated with their interpretation have resulted in a lack of clearly defined framework for quantifying biodiversity and biodiversity changes in marine ecosystems for assessment purpose. Recent theoretical and numerical developments in biodiversity statistics have established clear algebraic relationships between most of the diversity measures commonly used, and have highlighted those that most directly relates to the concept of biological diversity, terming them "true" diversity measures. In this study, we implement the calculation of these "true" diversity measures at the scale of a large-marine ecosystem, the Barents Sea. We applied hierarchical partitioning of biodiversity to an extensive dataset encompassing 10 years of trawl-surveys for both pelagic and demersal fish community. We quantify biodiversity and biodiversity changes for these two communities across the whole continental shelf of the Barents Sea at various spatial and temporal scales, explicitly identifying areas where fish communities are stable and variable. The method is used to disentangle areas where community composition is subject to random fluctuations from areas where the fish community is drifting over time. We discuss how our results can serve as a spatio-temporal biodiversity baseline against which new biodiversity estimates, derived from sea surveys, can be evaluated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing the vulnerability of biological communities to anthropic pressures in marine systems may be challenging because of the difficulty to properly model each species' response to the pressure due to lack of information. One solution is to apply factor-mediated vulnerability assessment which combines (i) information on species ecological traits and conservation status organized in a matrix of so-called "vulnerability factors", (ii) a conceptual model of how these factors affect species vulnerability, and (iii) data on the spatial distribution and abundance of each species issued from at-sea surveys. Such factor-mediated vulnerability assessment was originally introduced in the seabird-wind farm context by Garthe and Hüppop (2004. Scaling possible adverse effects of marine wind farms on seabirds: developing and applying a vulnerability index. Journal of Applied Ecology, 41: 724-734) and has since then been expanded to many case studies. However, the mathematical formulations that were proposed at that time are overly simplistic and may overlook critical components of the impact assessment. Our study briefly reviews the original approach and highlights its hidden assumptions and associated interpretation problems, for example, the overestimation of disturbance pressure to the detriment of collision, or the very high contribution of log abundances in vulnerability maps. Then, we propose a revised framework that solves these issues and permits easy transposition to other community-pressure case studies. To illustrate the usefulness and generality of the revised framework, we apply it to two case studies, one concerning the vulnerability assessment of a seabird community to offshore wind farms in the Bay of Biscay, and another focusing on the vulnerability assessment of the benthic megafauna community to trawling pressure in the Barents Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim This study focuses on the influence of methodological choices on the predictive performance of macroecological models ( MEMs), i.e. statistical models designed to predict patterns of biodiversity using environmental predictors. We emphasize the influence of three methodological choices: (1) the choice of the currency in which the abundance of each species is measured, i.e. numbers of individuals or biomass; (2) the rules used to define the species assemblage under focus, i.e. broad communities or refined ecological guilds; and (3) the influence of rare over common species in the biodiversity measure. Location The effects of these choices are investigated using an exhaustive dataset on the fish fauna of the continental shelf of the Barents Sea. Methods We conducted an analysis of 220 models resulting from all possible combinations of the three methodological choices. For each, we evaluated the predictive performance through an iterative cross-validation process. Results All methodological choices we investigated strongly affected the predictive performance of MEMs. High predictive performances were obtained when using biomass instead of numbers of individuals, when focusing on narrow ecological guilds composed of species sharing the same ecological traits and when using diversity measures that give high weight to rare species. Main conclusions We recommend that future projections of biodiversity pay more attention to abundance currency, ecological homogeneity of focal species assemblages and the diversity metric used, and systematically investigate these methodological choices prior to producing biodiversity forecasts. Splitting a whole set of species into ecological guilds appears to be a promising practice, leading to a selected set of MEMs with high predictive performances and more detailed forecasts on the fate of diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An assessment of the potential for 17 fish or shellfish stocks or stock groups to move from the sub- Arctic areas into the Arctic Ocean was conducted. A panel of 34 experts was convened to assess the impact of climate change on the potential movement of the 17 stocks or stock groups. The panel considered the exposure of species to climate change, the sensitivity of species to these changes and the adaptive capacity of each stock or stock group. Based on expert opinions, the potential for expansion or movement into the Arctic was qualitatively ranked (low potential, potential, high potential). It is projected that the Arctic Ocean will become ice-free during the summer season, and when this happens new areas will open up for plankton production, which may lead to new feeding areas for fish stocks. Five stocks had a low potential to move to, or expand in, the high Arctic. Six species are considered as potential candidate species to move to, or expand in, the high Arctic. Six stocks had a high potential of establishing viable resident populations in the region. These six stocks exhibit life history characteristics that allow them to survive challenging environmental conditions that will continue to prevail in the north. This study suggests that several life history factors should be considered when assessing the potentiality of a species moving in response to changing climate conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]